Bitcoin Price Forecasts Slashed Amid Shifting Digital Asset and Commodity Markets

Key Quotes

"Recent price action has been challenging, to say the least," said Kendrick, who heads digital assets research for the bank. Kendrick said Bitcoin's run since 2024 was powered by ETF inflows and digital asset treasury companies buying aggressively. But many of those DAhts now trade below the value of the crypto they hold, making further accumulation harder to justify. He expects consolidation rather than capitulation, but also says DAht buying is largely done.

Jeff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, explains that recent Bitcoin price movements have been difficult. Kendrick points to ETF inflows and aggressive buying by digital asset treasury companies as drivers of Bitcoin's run. However, he notes that these treasury companies now hold assets valued below their crypto holdings, making continued accumulation difficult to justify, and that this buying activity is largely complete.

"On the other side of the ledger, Bernstein said Bitcoin is now in an elongated bull cycle, with stickier institutional demand helping to absorb retail selling pressure. Despite a 30% correction, ETFs have seen outflows of less than 5%. Bernstein now targets $150,000 for 2026, with a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027. Its long-term 2030 target of roughly $1 million remains intact."

Bernstein's analysis, as presented by the podcast, suggests Bitcoin is experiencing an extended bull cycle. The firm highlights that sustained institutional demand is effectively absorbing selling pressure from retail investors. Bernstein maintains a positive outlook, forecasting $150,000 for Bitcoin in 2026 and a potential peak of $200,000 in 2027, with a long-term target of $1 million by 2030.

"Nvidia has developed a location verification feature that can indicate which country its chips are operating in. A move designed to stop high-end AI GPUs from being smuggled into restricted markets. Reuters reports that Nvidia has privately demoed the technology, though it hasn't been released yet."

This quote from the podcast describes Nvidia's development of a location verification feature for its chips. The purpose of this technology is to prevent high-end AI GPUs from being smuggled into countries with restricted access. Reuters has reported that Nvidia has demonstrated this technology internally, though it has not yet been officially released.

"Saxo Bank calls the surge a rare alignment of monetary, structural, and physical market forces. Strategist Ole Hansen says Silver's rally has outpaced what gold alone could justify, thanks to tight supply, price inelastic industrial demand, and policy-driven distortions, all amplified after silver was added to the US critical minerals list."

Ole Hansen, a strategist at Saxo Bank, characterizes silver's recent surge as a confluence of monetary, structural, and physical market factors. Hansen explains that silver's rally has exceeded what could be attributed to gold alone. This is due to a combination of limited supply, industrial demand that is not sensitive to price changes, and policy influences, which have been further magnified by silver's inclusion on the US critical minerals list.

"Relative value is another caution flag. The gold-silver ratio is now around 68, roughly its 30-year average. After this year's melt-up, silver is no longer the bargain it was when the ratio topped 105 in April."

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank raises concerns about the relative value of silver. Hansen notes that the gold-silver ratio is currently around 68, which is close to its 30-year average. He points out that following its recent price increase, silver is no longer as undervalued as it was when the ratio reached 105 in April.

"Swaps are pricing in a near certainty that the FOMC cuts by 25 basis points, but there could be the highest number of dissenting votes in six years. A split Fed could make for an interesting dot plot, which is also due. And as always, the real market mover will be Jay Powell's press conference, where traders will try to decipher whether this is a hawkish cut or a dovish one."

The podcast's host, Kim Khan, discusses market expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Khan explains that traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut with high certainty, but also a significant number of dissenting votes, potentially the highest in six years. Khan highlights that the ensuing "dot plot" and Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's press conference will be crucial for traders to interpret the nature of the cut.