Player Evaluation Subjectivity in "Top 25 Under 25" Draft - Episode Hero Image

Player Evaluation Subjectivity in "Top 25 Under 25" Draft

Thinking Basketball · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Victor Wembanyama's defensive impact is so significant that opposing teams must strategically alter their entire game plan to avoid him, demonstrating his ability to fundamentally bend opponent strategy.
  • Cade Cunningham's passing has evolved beyond pick-and-roll execution to facilitating offense through advanced ball movement, resembling Jason Kidd's playmaking and enhancing team offensive flow.
  • Alperen Sengun's offensive efficiency when the Houston Rockets run their sets through him provides a strong offensive foundation, even without traditional point guard play.
  • Anthony Edwards' consistent team-positive plus-minus across multiple seasons, even with a supporting cast, indicates a strong individual impact that transcends typical superstar metrics.
  • Chet Holmgren's elite rim protection and floor-stretching shooting make him a versatile modern big man, potentially a Defensive Player of the Year candidate if not for Wembanyama's presence.
  • Evan Mobley's defensive versatility and potential are significant, but his offensive efficiency and rim-finishing metrics this season raise questions about his current impact compared to his reputation.
  • Paolo Banchero's persistent negative on-court net rating across multiple seasons, despite star-level talent and usage, suggests a fundamental issue in translating individual skills to team success.

Deep Dive

The "Thinking Basketball" podcast's annual "Top 25 Under 25 Draft" showcases the inherent subjectivity and evolving nature of player evaluation, particularly for young, developing talent. This year's draft highlights a complex interplay between current performance, future projection, and team context, revealing that even experienced evaluators struggle to definitively rank players beyond the most elite prospects. The exercise underscores how player archetype, perceived weaknesses, and team fit become increasingly influential as evaluators move down the draft board, leading to significant debate and divergence of opinion on players with similar statistical profiles.

The draft reveals a clear stratification of talent, with Victor Wembanyama and Cade Cunningham occupying the top tier due to their exceptional, projectable skills and immediate impact. Below this elite group, the selections become more nuanced, driven by specific strengths and perceived weaknesses. For instance, Alperen Şengün and Anthony Edwards are valued for their offensive versatility and scoring ability, respectively, despite potential defensive concerns or positional fit questions. Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley represent the modern "stretchy big" archetype, excelling in rim protection and floor spacing, though their offensive dominance and defensive impact are debated relative to each other.

The draft also highlights the increasing value placed on versatile, high-IQ players who can impact the game in multiple ways, such as Jalen Williams, Scottie Barnes, and Franz Wagner. These players are prized for their adaptability, defensive capabilities, and ability to contribute across various schemes, making them valuable assets for playoff-contending teams. Conversely, players like LaMelo Ball and Paolo Banchero present a significant evaluation challenge. Ball's offensive dynamism is undeniable, but his defensive liabilities and inconsistent availability raise questions about his ultimate ceiling. Banchero's tantalizing physical tools and scoring flashes are offset by concerns about his efficiency, decision-making, and defensive commitment, making him a polarizing figure despite his star potential.

As the draft progresses, the focus shifts towards players who excel in specific roles, often termed "role players" or "brown belt" types. Players like Jalen Johnson, Kason Wallace, and Jaime Jaquez exemplify this category, offering strong defensive instincts, solid decision-making, and reliable shooting, making them valuable contributors to winning teams. The inclusion of rookies like Cam Whitmore and KC Nnaji, despite limited track records, underscores a willingness to bet on raw athleticism, defensive potential, and positive foundational skills. Ultimately, the draft process reveals that while objective metrics provide a baseline, subjective judgment, gut feeling, and an assessment of a player's "fit" within a theoretical team construct heavily influence these rankings, particularly for players outside the undisputed top tier.

Action Items

  • Audit player evaluation: For 3-5 drafted players, compare statistical performance against perceived strengths and weaknesses to identify potential biases in future evaluations.
  • Track player development impact: For 2-3 players with significant on/off court differentials, analyze contributing factors to understand systemic team effects.
  • Analyze defensive versatility: For 3-5 forwards drafted, assess their ability to guard multiple positions and their impact on team defense in playoff scenarios.
  • Evaluate offensive efficiency trends: For players with inconsistent shooting percentages, track shot selection and efficiency over 2-3 seasons to identify improvement areas.
  • Measure impact of player archetypes: For players exhibiting "brown belt" skill sets (versatile, few weaknesses), assess their playoff effectiveness compared to specialists.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"I'm probably done ranking things but if we just do a draft and have a lot of conversation and fun times then uh i can let this through my filter and here we are my friend back again for what the fourth time I've lost track the fifth time every year it gets wilder and wilder I think the best part about this year is the the level of fast and loose we're playing with it this year we never talked about any of the parameters like we set up the age and we're like all right we're going to set it at this date now it's it there's been no rules there's been no talks about injuries there's been no talks about anything so um I think this is a lot of just let's talk about some of these guys that we're really excited about and of course we have to have some kind of ranking about it because then why why would a podcast exist"

The speaker, Ben, explains that while he is generally finished with ranking players, he is open to the format of a draft if it allows for conversation and enjoyment. Ben highlights that this year's draft is being approached with a "fast and loose" attitude, deviating from strict parameters and rules, which he believes contributes to the excitement of discussing players they are enthusiastic about.

"So I guess it's like you take it you take in a little bit from what you've seen in the past you take in what you're seeing this year and then I think we're also projecting like if this was a playoff series right like we're kind of imagining this year yes like within the year though I'm saying we're not talking about age 27 Derrick Rose or something like that"

Ben clarifies the criteria for evaluating players in the draft, stating that it involves a blend of past performance, current season play, and a projection of how the player would perform in a playoff series within the current year, rather than projecting their future career potential. This approach emphasizes immediate impact and current form over long-term development.

"So the reason listen the actual reason I gave you number one is because I didn't know what to do at number three and I wanted to get off the third pick as much as possible because I feel very confident about my second pick in this draft because and all of a sudden for some reason I'm terrified that this person is totally not uh oh it works uh for number two I'm taking Cade Cunningham"

Ben admits to strategically placing Victor Wembanyama at number one not due to absolute certainty, but to avoid the difficult decision at number three, feeling more confident about his second pick, Cade Cunningham. This reveals a tactical element in the draft process, where avoiding difficult choices can influence initial rankings.

"The Spurs defense is 12 points better per 100 possessions than when he's off the court that would basically be first all time in the play by play era so the Wemby watch is is live and it's back and it's going as strong as ever my friend and I see he also had a block in that game so I don't remember what the streak is at it's got to be closing in on 100 for the number of blocks he's had in a row"

This quote highlights Victor Wembanyama's significant defensive impact, noting that the Spurs' defense improves by 12 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court, a statistic that would rank historically high. The speaker emphasizes that the "Wemby watch" is active and strong, underscoring his consistent defensive performance, including a notable streak of games with blocks.

"The passing game has leveled up another inch or so here it's not just the pick and roll maestro it's not just the on ball I'm going to kind of Chris Paul this and control every possession it's the you know kick ahead passes it's the extra passing it's the kind of setting everyone up so things move smoothly going back to our 25 uh the 25 peak series very Jason Kidd esque at times with his passing"

The speaker describes Cade Cunningham's improved passing ability, noting that it has evolved beyond just pick-and-roll playmaking to include more dynamic passes like "kick ahead" and "extra passing." This enhanced playmaking, reminiscent of Jason Kidd, is seen as a key factor in making the offense flow more smoothly.

"I think I'm at a point where you mentioned that Cade is the best player in this draft offensively I think I agree I think I agree but there are a couple players that can contest that and Alpi might be one of them in the sense that we already referenced a baby Jokic joke he's sort of the original baby Jokic moniker I called him Bizarro Jokic a couple years ago but when we did that deep dive one of the things that jumped out was a young Houston team when they ran the offense through these Sengun sets it was very efficient"

The speaker agrees that Cade Cunningham is a strong offensive player but posits that Alperen Sengun is a contender for that title, referencing his "baby Jokic" moniker and the efficiency of the Houston Rockets' offense when run through Sengun's sets. This suggests Sengun's offensive capabilities are highly valued, potentially rivaling Cunningham's.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "Searching for Bobby Fischer" - Mentioned as a comparison for the search for the "next Jordan."

Podcasts & Audio

  • Thinking Basketball - The podcast hosting the discussion.

Other Resources

  • 25 Best Players Under 25 Draft - The annual draft exercise being conducted on the podcast.
  • Digital coin flipper - Used to determine draft order.
  • Play-by-play era - A timeframe used for statistical comparison.
  • NBA Cup - A tournament mentioned in relation to player performance.
  • Rookie tax - A concept applied to young players' valuations.
  • Lamelo tax - A concept applied to Lamelo Ball's valuation.
  • Microwave scorers - A category of players discussed, with Vinnie Johnson, Andrew Toney, Ben Gordon, and Benn Mathurin mentioned as examples.
  • Brown belt players - Players with a versatile skill set but no glaring weaknesses.
  • Robert 'Big Shot' Williams - Mentioned as an example of a player archetype.
  • Danny Green - Mentioned as a player in the vein of Kason Wallace.
  • The 97 Suns - Mentioned as a comparison for the San Antonio Spurs' guard-heavy lineup.
  • The Heat - Mentioned in relation to Bam Adebayo's defensive impact.
  • The Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game and player performance.
  • The Pistons - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game and player performance.
  • The Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Bulls (1996-1998 vintage) - Mentioned in relation to Ron Harper.
  • The Spurs - Mentioned in relation to their guard-heavy lineup and player performance.
  • The Thunder - Mentioned in relation to their player development and team success.
  • The Magic - Mentioned in relation to Jalen Suggs' impact.
  • The Rockets - Mentioned in relation to Alperen Sengun's offensive role and team performance.
  • The Hornets - Mentioned as the team K.C. Nwaji plays for.
  • The Cavaliers - Mentioned in relation to Evan Mobley and Darius Garland.
  • The Orlando Magic - Mentioned as a team that could benefit from a player like Jabari Smith.
  • The Atlanta Hawks - Mentioned in relation to Jalen Johnson.
  • The Golden State Warriors - Mentioned in relation to Draymond Green.
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves - Mentioned in relation to Anthony Edwards' on-court impact.
  • The Detroit Pistons - Mentioned in relation to Cade Cunningham's performance.
  • The Charlotte Hornets - Mentioned in relation to K.C. Nwaji.
  • The San Antonio Spurs - Mentioned in relation to their guard-heavy lineup and player development.
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder - Mentioned in relation to their player development and team success.
  • The Houston Rockets - Mentioned in relation to Alperen Sengun's offensive role and team performance.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game and player performance.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to their guard lineup and a specific game.
  • The Chicago Bulls - Mentioned in relation to Ron Harper.
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers - Mentioned in relation to Evan Mobley and Darius Garland.
  • The Philadelphia 76ers - Mentioned in relation to Joel Embiid.
  • The Los Angeles Lakers - Mentioned in relation to LeBron James.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The New York Knicks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Boston Celtics - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Indiana Pacers - Mentioned in relation to Benn Mathurin.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies - Mentioned in relation to Santi Aldama.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Dallas Mavericks - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Toronto Raptors - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.
  • The Phoenix Suns - Mentioned in relation to a specific game.

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