NBA's 65-Game Rule Creates Perverse Incentives and Distorts Player Value - Episode Hero Image

NBA's 65-Game Rule Creates Perverse Incentives and Distorts Player Value

Thinking Basketball · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The 65-game rule for NBA awards creates unintended consequences, potentially incentivizing players to return early from injury and complicating the evaluation of player value in an increasingly injury-prone league.
  • Paolo Banchero's statistical production often masks a negative on-court impact, as his team's efficiency significantly declines when he plays, indicating a disconnect between box score numbers and actual team performance.
  • The NBA's 65-game rule for awards, intended to curb load management, may not be achieving its goal and introduces complexities like impacting player contracts and potentially devaluing season-long narratives.
  • Derrick White's effectiveness stems from exceptional off-ball movement and "little thing" plays, enabling the Celtics' highly efficient offense by creating open shots and contributing to overall team success.
  • The NBA's officiating and rules, particularly regarding landing space and physical play, may be contributing to an increase in player injuries by not adequately protecting defenders from dangerous collisions.
  • The NBA functions as a "giant male soap opera" for fans, where the constant narrative of player movement, performance, and interpersonal dynamics drives engagement, akin to a serialized drama.
  • The Magic's offensive performance suffers significantly when Paolo Banchero is on the court, with a notable drop in efficiency and rim scoring, contrasting with their improved play when Franz Wagner is on the floor.

Deep Dive

The podcast episode delves into two primary areas: the unintended consequences of the NBA's 65-game minimum for awards and a complex analysis of Paolo Banchero's game and impact. The discussion on the 65-game rule highlights how it inadvertently creates perverse incentives and fails to address the root causes of player injuries, while the examination of Banchero reveals a player whose impressive physical tools and box-score numbers mask underlying inefficiencies and decision-making flaws that hinder team performance.

The 65-game rule, intended to curb load management and ensure star players participate in a significant portion of the season, is presented as a policy with significant unintended consequences. The rule's rigidity forces players to return from injuries prematurely to qualify for awards, potentially exacerbating those injuries and creating a "messy soup" of data that doesn't accurately reflect historical player participation or value. Furthermore, the rule's connection to player contracts creates financial pressure, leading to scenarios where players might prioritize award eligibility over optimal team strategy. The analysis suggests that instead of an arbitrary game limit, the league should focus on enforcing honest injury reporting and addressing the underlying factors contributing to player injuries, such as evolving officiating standards that may encourage more forceful contact. The core implication is that this rule, while perhaps well-intentioned, creates a distorted view of player value and potentially compromises player health and competitive integrity.

The detailed breakdown of Paolo Banchero's game reveals a player with a high "eye test" appeal and strong statistical output in certain areas, yet whose overall impact is questionable. Banchero possesses considerable physical gifts--size, strength, and ball-handling ability for his frame--which allow him to fill the box score with points, rebounds, and assists. However, the analysis critically examines his efficiency and decision-making, particularly his poor shooting from outside and tendency to settle for inefficient mid-range jumpers and pull-up threes. A key second-order implication is that Banchero's style of play, while producing individual numbers, actively detracts from team offensive efficiency, especially in crucial late-game situations. The comparison to Giannis Antetokounmpo highlights a similar pattern where a dominant physical player's offense is most effective when facilitating rather than initiating, but Banchero's lack of elite finishing at the rim and poor shooting mean he does not generate the same positive offensive ripples for his teammates as other stars. The evidence suggests that Banchero's presence on the court, despite his individual talent, often leads to a net negative impact on team performance, particularly when compared to teammates like Franz Wagner who demonstrably elevate the team's efficiency. This creates a polarizing case study where superficial box-score numbers can be misleading, masking the subtler, yet critical, inefficiencies that limit team success.

Action Items

  • Audit Paolo Banchero's shot selection: Analyze 50 games to identify instances of long twos and pull-up threes, quantifying their frequency and efficiency.
  • Measure team impact of Paolo Banchero: For 10 games, compare Orlando Magic's offensive and defensive efficiency with and without Banchero on the court.
  • Track player availability impact on awards: For 3-5 recent seasons, analyze how the 65-game eligibility rule affected MVP and All-NBA selections for players with fewer than 70 games played.
  • Evaluate officiating impact on injuries: Review 10 recent games to identify instances of "Hulk Smashes" or similar forceful contact and their correlation with player injuries.
  • Develop a framework for evaluating player efficiency: Define 3-5 metrics beyond box score stats to assess player impact, focusing on decision-making and off-ball movement.

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Key Quotes

"I have a public service announcement to make: people need to stop texting and looking at their telephone while they drive their vehicle. Have you noticed this? Is this a problem where you are? This is something where I look over quite a bit. As I go by, I like to look over and see who it is that I'm passing or who is passing me, and so many times the eyes are down. The worst is when you actually see the screen up and they're looking at it. So yes, I think that this is an absolute epidemic."

The speaker emphasizes the widespread and dangerous issue of distracted driving due to mobile phone use. The presenter highlights how frequently drivers' eyes are diverted from the road to their screens, characterizing it as an "epidemic" that poses a significant risk to safety.

"The record was tied. Dennis Johnson has seven blocks in a game in 1979 with the Seattle Sonics. Shout out Seattle and the Sonics and Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp and Kendall Gill and Ricky Pierce and Sam Perkins. Stop me. I'm getting warmed up. This is how we're going to do all the pods this year. They're just going to be this unhinged. Doug Christie also blocked--he's like a guard forward, right? He strikes me--I mean, I know Peja was like specifically the starting small forward for that team, but when I see the 6'6" frame that he has, he just strikes me as more of a natural small forward. Wait, wait a second. This was 2004, back in the day when like your shooting guard was 6'9", so don't sleep on that. But Christie actually got his seven in Toronto in 2000."

The speaker is discussing NBA records for blocks by a guard, referencing historical instances involving Dennis Johnson and Doug Christie. The presenter expresses enthusiasm for trivia and historical basketball data, indicating a tendency towards detailed and passionate discussions on the podcast.

"So the 65-game rule was instilled, I think, for the 2024 season, like 2023 to 2024. So I think this is our third season requiring players to play at least 65 games. Is that--is that right off the top of your head? That sounds roughly right. Somewhere in there. Yeah, I think so. Yeah. So we have--we have two and a half years of data at this point. At the end of this season, we'll have three years of data. It would be interesting to go back and see if it's actually having its intended outcome, right? Like, are teams actually having players rest less? Like, are they load managing their players less at this point, or is there truly no impact?"

The speaker is questioning the effectiveness and intended outcome of the NBA's 65-game rule for player awards. The presenter suggests that after three seasons, it would be valuable to analyze whether the rule has genuinely reduced load management or if it has had no discernible impact.

"Well, the player I--I think I'm kind of like going through some of our Top 25 25 players that we didn't necessarily dive into and going, "Okay, there's a lot of complexity there. We can't just give it two or three minutes in a larger pod. This has to be a conversation." And last week we did that a little bit. This week, for me, it's the one and only Paolo Banchero, who I feel like more people are coming around on the idea that there are some issues there, some challenges, but he's still polarizing. You know, there are people who think he's a star or a superstar or going to be a superstar, or he's looked like a superstar, but he just gets hung up with injuries."

The speaker is introducing a detailed discussion about Paolo Banchero, highlighting his complexity and polarizing nature as a player. The presenter notes that Banchero's career has presented challenges, leading to differing opinions on his star potential, and that this complexity warrants a dedicated conversation.

"And so what that does is it gets your three-point shooters slightly better threes sometimes, which is good, don't get me wrong. But when in Giannis's case, he was going up against the best offensive players ever, we're going, "Oh, this is where we're seeing a gap between the Giannis offense that you were just alluding to and Kobe Bryant and LeBron James and Nikola Jokic and Dwyane Wade and all these other incredible Chris Paul and all these other incredible offensive players." Well, when you look at Paolo's signals at the team level, they echo this exact same concept, right? What we do not see is this pressure on the rim area of the court, which is where intuitively, I think most of us would think, "Hey, you're a 6'10" giant, downhill, Ben Simmons-y, young LeBron James-y. Like this is what I want to see."

The speaker is drawing parallels between Giannis Antetokounmpo's offensive playmaking and Paolo Banchero's team-level impact, particularly concerning rim pressure. The presenter observes that while Giannis's playmaking creates opportunities, Banchero's presence does not generate the same level of offensive pressure at the rim, which is counter to expectations for a player of his size and potential.

"And so you might be asking, it's like, "What are some things that might be going on here that's causing, you know, why is he not as effective as Franz or aren't we seeing the signal that maybe correlates with the free throw attempts per 100 possessions you see from him and things like that?" There's a couple of things. Number one, you know, we talked about cutting a lot in that series. Like somebody like Dwyane Wade, who's so good at just knowing when the defense is looking away, cutting to the basket. LeBron James, somebody else who isn't necessarily spacing the court like some of these all-time greats just knows when to get to the basket. Jimmy Butler, right? All these guys great at cutting. There's a play like a minute and a half left in this Nuggets game, a minute and a half left, right? And Wendell Carter gets a short roll pass, and he catches it around the nail. Okay, there is nobody on the side where Paolo Banchero is in the corner. You sent me this play. I sent you this. I couldn't even think straight when I saw it. And your first thought as an NBA player that is 6'10" that can probably put your head right near the rim should be as soon as my teammate catches the ball, I am cutting to the basket because nobody can recover quickly enough to stop."

The speaker is exploring reasons for Paolo Banchero's perceived ineffectiveness compared to Franz Wagner, focusing on elements not captured by traditional

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Odyssey" by Homer - Mentioned as a potential movie adaptation that the speaker is interested in seeing.

Articles & Papers

  • "The 65-game rule" - Discussed as a policy implemented by the NBA that has unintended consequences.

People

  • Tom Selleck - Mentioned in relation to the speaker's "Magnum P.I." shirt.
  • Alvin Robertson - Mentioned as a guess for the NBA record for most block shots by a guard in a game.
  • Dennis Johnson - Mentioned as holding the NBA record for most block shots by a guard in a game with seven.
  • Gary Payton - Mentioned as a player from the Seattle Sonics era.
  • Shawn Kemp - Mentioned as a player from the Seattle Sonics era.
  • Kendall Gill - Mentioned as a player from the Seattle Sonics era.
  • Ricky Pierce - Mentioned as a player from the Seattle Sonics era.
  • Sam Perkins - Mentioned as a player from the Seattle Sonics era.
  • Doug Christie - Mentioned as a guard/forward who also blocked seven shots in a game.
  • Peja Stojakovic - Mentioned as the starting small forward for a team.
  • Derrick White - Mentioned for tying the NBA record for most block shots by a guard in a game with seven.
  • Jaylen Brown - Mentioned in discussions about his performance and All-Star voting.
  • Kawhi Leonard - Mentioned in the context of a game against the Celtics.
  • John Collins - Mentioned for hitting multiple three-point shots in a game.
  • Nikola Jokic - Mentioned as being injured and the circumstances surrounding his injury.
  • Jaime Jaquez Jr. - Mentioned as the player who caused Nikola Jokic's injury.
  • Tyrese Haliburton - Mentioned in relation to returning early from injury to qualify for awards.
  • Victor Wembanyama - Mentioned in discussions about Defensive Player of the Year and the 65-game rule.
  • Joel Embiid - Mentioned in the context of injuries and the 65-game rule.
  • Zaza Pachulia - Mentioned in relation to the "landing space" rule in the NBA.
  • Bruce Bowen - Mentioned as an example of a player who might have engaged in "dirty" play.
  • Paolo Banchero - Discussed extensively regarding his skills, impact, and polarizing nature.
  • Franz Wagner - Discussed in comparison to Paolo Banchero and his impact on the Magic's offense.
  • Desmond Bane - Mentioned as a player on the Orlando Magic.
  • Anthony Black - Mentioned as a player on the Orlando Magic who has improved offensively.
  • Luka Garza - Mentioned as a player who hit a three-pointer for the Celtics.
  • Domantas Sabonis - Mentioned as a player who has taken a three-pointer for the Celtics.
  • Peyton Watson - Mentioned as the player Paolo Banchero scored against in the paint.
  • Adrian Dantley - Mentioned as a comparison for players whose box score numbers don't always reflect their impact.
  • Wilt Chamberlain - Mentioned as a player whose box score numbers don't always reflect their impact, and as a potential starting point for a list.
  • Luka Doncic - Mentioned as a player whose box score numbers don't always reflect their impact.
  • Dwyane Wade - Mentioned as a player known for cutting and as a comparison for offensive impact.
  • LeBron James - Mentioned as a player known for cutting and as a comparison for offensive impact.
  • Jimmy Butler - Mentioned as a player great at cutting.
  • Chris Paul - Mentioned as an incredible offensive player.
  • Wendell Carter Jr. - Mentioned in relation to a play where Paolo Banchero did not cut to the basket.
  • De'Aaron Fox - Mentioned in relation to a play where Paolo Banchero did not cut to the basket.
  • Russell Westbrook - Mentioned as a player with poor shooting percentages and as a potential controversial list entry.
  • Jason Kidd - Mentioned as a player who might be a controversial starting point for a list.
  • Wilt Chamberlain - Mentioned as a concept for a list.
  • D'Angelo Russell - Mentioned as an example of a player selected as an All-Star replacement by the commissioner.
  • Luka Garza - Mentioned as a player who hit a three-pointer for the Celtics.
  • Domantas Sabonis - Mentioned as a player who has taken a three-pointer for the Celtics.
  • Luka Doncic - Mentioned as a player whose box score numbers don't always reflect their impact.
  • Dwyane Wade - Mentioned as a player known for cutting and as a comparison for offensive impact.
  • LeBron James - Mentioned as a player known for cutting and as a comparison for offensive impact.
  • Jimmy Butler - Mentioned as a player great at cutting.
  • Chris Paul - Mentioned as an incredible offensive player.
  • Wendell Carter Jr. - Mentioned in relation to a play where Paolo Banchero did not cut to the basket.
  • De'Aaron Fox - Mentioned in relation to a play where Paolo Banchero did not cut to the basket.
  • Russell Westbrook - Mentioned as a player with poor shooting percentages and as a potential controversial list entry.
  • Jason Kidd - Mentioned as a player who might be a controversial starting point for a list.
  • Wilt Chamberlain - Mentioned as a concept for a list.
  • D'Angelo Russell - Mentioned as an example of a player selected as an All-Star replacement by the commissioner.
  • Adrian Dantley - Mentioned as a comparison for players whose box score numbers don't always reflect their impact.
  • Wilt Chamberlain - Mentioned as a player whose box score numbers don't always reflect their impact, and as a potential starting point for a list.
  • Luka Doncic - Mentioned as a player whose box score numbers don't always reflect their impact.
  • Dwyane Wade - Mentioned as a player known for cutting and as a comparison for offensive impact.
  • LeBron James - Mentioned as a player known for cutting and as a comparison for offensive impact.
  • Jimmy Butler - Mentioned as a player great at cutting.
  • Chris Paul - Mentioned as an incredible offensive player.
  • Wendell Carter Jr. - Mentioned in relation to a play where Paolo Banchero did not cut to the basket.
  • De'Aaron Fox - Mentioned in relation to a play where Paolo Banchero did not cut to the basket.
  • Russell Westbrook - Mentioned as a player with poor shooting percentages and as a potential controversial list entry.
  • Jason Kidd - Mentioned as a player who might be a controversial starting point for a list.
  • Wilt Chamberlain - Mentioned as a concept for a list.
  • D'Angelo Russell - Mentioned as an example of a player selected as an All-Star replacement by the commissioner.

Organizations & Institutions

  • NBA (National Basketball Association) - Discussed in relation to player records, rules, and game officiating.
  • Seattle Sonics - Mentioned as the team Dennis Johnson played for when he set a block record.
  • Toronto - Mentioned as the city where Doug Christie set his block record.
  • Boston Celtics - Mentioned as the team Derrick White plays for and their recent performance.
  • Clippers - Mentioned as a team that played against the Celtics.
  • Nuggets - Mentioned as a team that played against the Magic.
  • Duke - Mentioned as the university Paolo Banchero attended.
  • Orlando Magic - Mentioned as the team Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner play for.
  • Indiana Pacers - Mentioned as a team the Magic recently beat.
  • Los Angeles Lakers - Discussed in relation to their defense and clutch performance.

Websites & Online Resources

  • Patreon.com/thinkingbasketball - Mentioned as a platform for deep dives and membership.
  • YouTube - Mentioned as a platform for video content.

Other Resources

  • Magnum P.I. shirt - Mentioned as an item of clothing the speaker was wearing.
  • Stocks (Steals + Blocks) - Mentioned as a combined statistic in basketball.
  • Nested Spain Pick and Roll - Mentioned as a type of offensive play.
  • Supermax contract - Mentioned in relation to player contracts and eligibility.
  • The Odyssey - Mentioned as a movie coming out in 2026.
  • Avengers Doomsday - Mentioned as a Marvel movie coming out in 2026.
  • Dune 3 - Mentioned as a movie coming out in 2026.
  • Days of Our Lives - Mentioned as a soap opera to compare the NBA's ongoing narratives.

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