Global Geopolitical Risks Driven by US Policy Shifts and Technological Competition - Episode Hero Image

Global Geopolitical Risks Driven by US Policy Shifts and Technological Competition

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The US political revolution, driven by Trump's belief the system was weaponized against him, aims to consolidate presidential power over the administrative state, potentially weaponizing agencies against political opponents.
  • The "Don Roe Doctrine" signifies a shift towards assertive US intervention in its hemisphere, creating complex second-order questions about regional stability and US responsibility for governance.
  • China's mastery of the 21st-century energy stack, including batteries and manufacturing, contrasts with US reliance on 20th-century energy, creating a strategic disadvantage in powering future technologies like AI.
  • Europe faces a unique danger in 2026 with weak governments and rising populism, struggling to balance increased defense spending needs with internal demands for continued social benefits.
  • Russia's "second front" against NATO involves hybrid warfare beyond Ukraine, escalating through cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, and disinformation campaigns to divide and weaken European allies.
  • The personalization of industrial policy under Trump injects significant political uncertainty into US capital processes, creating incremental costs and risks beyond traditional economic interventions.
  • AI's rapid integration into consumer-facing products, driven by investor pressure for returns, poses a greater societal risk than social media due to its potential for manipulation and lack of testing.

Deep Dive

The world faces significant geopolitical risks in 2026, driven by a reshaping of global power dynamics and a shift towards more personalized, state-driven economic policies, particularly in the United States. These shifts, exemplified by the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the potential for territorial acquisition like Greenland, signal a move away from established international norms and alliances, creating instability for both adversaries and allies. The core of this volatility stems from a perceived weaponization of political systems against perceived enemies, leading to a desire for greater executive control and a redefinition of national interests that prioritizes transactional relationships over long-standing partnerships.

The implications of this evolving landscape are profound. The "Don Roe Doctrine," a Trump-era adaptation of the Monroe Doctrine, suggests a more assertive U.S. foreign policy in its hemisphere, prioritizing direct action and transactional engagements over multilateral diplomacy. This approach, while operationally successful in instances like the Maduro capture, creates uncertainty for allies and potentially emboldens adversaries who perceive a weakening of global governance structures. The resulting "G-zero world" environment, where U.S. leadership is less reliable, forces allies to increasingly hedge their bets, invest more in their own defense, and decouple from U.S. influence. This is particularly evident in Europe, where internal political fragmentation, weak governments, and rising populism leave the continent vulnerable to external pressures from Russia and internal divisions, exacerbated by a U.S. preference for dealing with individual nations rather than a unified EU.

Furthermore, the global energy race and the rapid development of AI are creating new arenas for competition and risk. While China leads in 21st-century energy infrastructure like batteries and grid manufacturing, the U.S. is focused on AI model development, creating a strategic mismatch. This short-term approach to energy policy, prioritizing existing fossil fuels over sustainable, cheaper alternatives, leaves the U.S. at a disadvantage in powering future technologies like AI, which require vast amounts of energy. Similarly, the unchecked, rapid deployment of AI into consumer markets, driven by investor pressure for returns, poses a significant societal risk. Without robust regulation and ethical guardrails, AI could inflict more damage than social media, potentially leading to widespread societal disruption as these systems are programmed to maximize engagement without regard for consequence.

Ultimately, these interconnected risks highlight a global system in flux, characterized by a decline in established norms, a rise in transactional geopolitics, and an uneven race for technological and economic dominance. The U.S. political system's deep dysfunction and its willingness to break norms, whether in foreign policy or economic strategy, create a ripple effect that destabilizes alliances and empowers adversaries. While the long-term success of these revolutionary shifts remains uncertain, their immediate impact is a more fragmented, unpredictable, and potentially dangerous global environment.

Action Items

  • Audit US political system: Assess impact of personalized industrial policy and norm erosion on democratic institutions (ref: US political revolution, state capitalism).
  • Develop energy strategy: Prioritize investment in 21st-century energy infrastructure (wind, solar, batteries) to power AI and compete globally (ref: energy race, AI eats its users).
  • Implement AI governance framework: Establish testing and regulatory protocols for consumer-facing AI to mitigate societal damage from hallucinations and manipulation (ref: AI eats its users).
  • Strengthen transatlantic alliances: Propose joint initiatives with European nations to counter hybrid warfare and bolster collective defense capabilities (ref: Europe under siege, Russia's second front).
  • Analyze regional economic influence: Quantify China's economic leverage versus US military influence in the Western Hemisphere to inform strategic trade policy (ref: Monroe Doctrine, energy race).

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Key Quotes

"The fact that they were able to pull that off over the course of a few months and put that plan together is a real operational victory for president trump. He wanted to see the back of Maduro. There were no American boots on the ground; there were no American servicemen or women that were killed in the operation."

Ian Bremmer highlights the successful operational execution of capturing Nicolas Maduro, framing it as a significant achievement for President Trump. Bremmer emphasizes that the operation was accomplished without American casualties, underscoring its strategic and tactical success from the perspective of the Trump administration.

"The big change geopolitically in the world over the last 20 years has not been the US in decline, it's been America's allies in decline. And we see that demographically, we see that economically in terms of productivity, we see that in the lack of defense spending."

Ian Bremmer points out a critical geopolitical shift: the decline of America's allies rather than the decline of the United States itself. Bremmer identifies demographic, economic productivity, and defense spending as key indicators of this decline among allied nations.

"Trump's political revolution is not an economic revolution. Only the second revolution really attempted by a US president, the first was FDR. Trump's is much more structurally significant than FDR's and we make that comparison in detail in the report and we don't know if it's going to be successful."

Ian Bremmer distinguishes Donald Trump's political movement from an economic revolution, comparing its structural significance to FDR's initiatives. Bremmer states that Trump's revolution is ongoing and its success is uncertain, noting it is a more profound structural endeavor than FDR's.

"Washington is asking the world to buy 20th century energy while Beijing offers 21st century infrastructure."

Ian Bremmer critiques U.S. energy policy by contrasting it with China's approach. Bremmer suggests that the U.S. promotes outdated energy technologies while China is leading with advanced, modern infrastructure.

"The Europeans are turning away from regulation of AI because they know that they don't have any tech companies and they desperately need the competitiveness and the growth. The only country that's really doing it is China because their view is if our citizens are going to hallucinate, this certainly not going to hallucinate from an AI, it's going to be CCP, not GPT."

Ian Bremmer explains the differing approaches to AI regulation among major global powers. Bremmer notes that Europe is hesitant to regulate AI due to concerns about competitiveness, while China is actively controlling its AI development to align with state interests.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Risk Report" by Ian Bremmer - Mentioned as the source for the discussion on global risks for 2026.

Articles & Papers

  • "Why the Internet Is Pissing You Off on Purpose" (Vox) - Referenced as an example of content that uses "rage bait" as a currency.

People

  • Ian Bremmer - President and founder of Eurasia Group, discussing his top risks report for 2026.
  • Nicolas Maduro - Mentioned in relation to his capture and extradition to the US.
  • Xi Jinping - Referenced in the context of US-China relations and Trump's approach to dealing with China.
  • Vladimir Putin - Mentioned in relation to the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump's foreign policy.
  • Zelensky - Referenced in the context of US foreign policy and relations with Ukraine.
  • Marco Rubio - Mentioned as one of the architects of the Venezuela policy.
  • John Ratcliffe - Mentioned as one of the architects of the Venezuela policy.
  • Stephen Miller - Mentioned as a proponent of acquiring Greenland.
  • Letitia James - Referenced in the context of investigations against political figures.
  • James Comey - Referenced in the context of investigations against political figures.
  • Elon Musk - Mentioned in relation to SpaceX, Starlink, and populist movements in Europe.
  • J.D. Vance - Referenced in the context of US foreign policy and populist movements in Europe.
  • Fiona Hill - Her testimony from 2019 is mentioned regarding Putin's motivations.
  • Kamala Harris - Referenced in the context of US political alignment and voting patterns.
  • Orban - Mentioned as a leader with whom Trump has an affinity.
  • Bardella - Mentioned as a leader with whom Trump has an affinity.
  • Le Pen - Mentioned as a leader with whom Trump has an affinity.
  • Farage - Mentioned as a leader with whom Trump has an affinity.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Eurasia Group - Mentioned as the firm founded by Ian Bremmer, which produces the top risk reports.
  • US (United States) - Primary subject of discussion regarding political revolution, foreign policy, and global risks.
  • China - Discussed as a geopolitical and economic competitor to the US.
  • Russia - Discussed as a geopolitical adversary, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war.
  • Ukraine - Discussed in relation to the ongoing war with Russia.
  • Venezuela - Discussed in relation to US intervention and political risk.
  • NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) - Referenced as an alliance facing challenges and internal divisions.
  • European Union (EU) - Discussed in the context of its strength, governance, and relationship with the US.
  • Nvidia - Mentioned in relation to chip sales to China and lobbying efforts.
  • Intel - Referenced in the context of US industrial policy and investment.
  • US Steel - Mentioned in relation to state capitalism and government intervention in the US economy.
  • TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Referenced in the context of China's interest in Taiwan.
  • FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) - Mentioned as an administrative state agency that Trump intends to control.
  • Department of Justice (DOJ) - Mentioned as an administrative state agency that Trump intends to control.
  • IRS (Internal Revenue Service) - Mentioned as an administrative state agency that Trump intends to control.
  • Act Blue - Referenced as an example of a successful revolutionary act with chilling implications.
  • Taiwan - Discussed as a geopolitical flashpoint between the US and China.
  • Greenland - Discussed in relation to Trump's interest in acquiring it and its implications for Denmark and NATO.
  • Denmark - Referenced as an ally of the US and the sovereign nation of Greenland.
  • France - Discussed as a European country facing weak government and rising populism.
  • Germany - Discussed as a European country facing weak government and rising populism.
  • United Kingdom (UK) - Discussed as a European country facing weak government and rising populism.
  • Northwest Registered Agent - Mentioned as a sponsor of the podcast.
  • BetterHelp - Mentioned as a sponsor of the podcast.
  • Pipedrive - Mentioned as a sponsor of the podcast.
  • Vox - Mentioned as the source of an article discussed.
  • The Five - Mentioned as a show co-hosted by Jessica Tarlov.
  • Raging Moderates Podcast - Mentioned as a podcast co-hosted by Jessica Tarlov and Scott.
  • G2 - Referenced in the context of US-China relations.
  • IMF (International Monetary Fund) - Mentioned as an institution that emerged from WWII.
  • United Nations (UN) - Mentioned as an institution that emerged from WWII.
  • World Bank - Mentioned as an institution that emerged from WWII.
  • Tiktok - Referenced in the context of political control over social media platforms.
  • Truth Social - Mentioned as a platform controlled by Trump.
  • X (formerly Twitter) - Referenced in the context of deplatforming a sitting US president.
  • Apple Store - Referenced in the context of deplatforming a sitting US president.
  • Nvidia - Mentioned in relation to chip sales to China and lobbying efforts.
  • Intel - Referenced in the context of US industrial policy and investment.
  • US Steel - Mentioned in relation to state capitalism and government intervention in the US economy.
  • TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Referenced in the context of China's interest in Taiwan.
  • FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) - Mentioned as an administrative state agency that Trump intends to control.
  • Department of Justice (DOJ) - Mentioned as an administrative state agency that Trump intends to control.
  • IRS (Internal Revenue Service) - Mentioned as an administrative state agency that Trump intends to control.
  • Act Blue - Referenced as an example of a successful revolutionary act with chilling implications.
  • Taiwan - Discussed as a geopolitical flashpoint between the US and China.
  • Greenland - Discussed in relation to Trump's interest in acquiring it and its implications for Denmark and NATO.
  • Denmark - Referenced as an ally of the US and the sovereign nation of Greenland.
  • France - Discussed as a European country facing weak government and rising populism.
  • Germany - Discussed as a European country facing weak government and rising populism.
  • United Kingdom (UK) - Discussed as a European country facing weak government and rising populism.
  • Northwest Registered Agent - Mentioned as a sponsor of the podcast.
  • BetterHelp - Mentioned as a sponsor of the podcast.
  • Pipedrive - Mentioned as a sponsor of the podcast.
  • Vox - Mentioned as the source of an article discussed.
  • The Five - Mentioned as a show co-hosted by Jessica Tarlov.
  • Raging Moderates Podcast - Mentioned as a podcast co-hosted by Jessica Tarlov and Scott.
  • G2 - Referenced in the context of US-China relations.
  • IMF (International Monetary Fund) - Mentioned as an institution that emerged from WWII.
  • United Nations (UN) - Mentioned as an institution that emerged from WWII.
  • World Bank - Mentioned as an institution that emerged from WWII.
  • Tiktok - Referenced in the context of political control over social media platforms.
  • Truth Social - Mentioned as a platform controlled by Trump.
  • X (formerly Twitter) - Referenced in the context of deplatforming a sitting US president.
  • Apple Store - Referenced in the context of deplatforming a sitting US president.
  • CCCP (Communist Party of China) - Referenced in contrast to ChatGPT.
  • ChatGPT - Referenced in contrast to CCCP.

Other Resources

  • Don-Roo Doctrine - Mentioned as a concept related to US foreign policy in its hemisphere.
  • Monroe Doctrine - Referenced as the basis for the "Don-Roo Doctrine."
  • AI (Artificial Intelligence) - Discussed as a key area of competition between the US and China, and its societal impact.
  • Electric Stack - Mentioned in relation to China's mastery of energy infrastructure.
  • State Capitalism - Discussed in the US context as a form of industrial policy.
  • Industrial Policy - Referenced as a component of state capitalism.
  • Rage Bait - Defined as the currency behind much of the content seen online.
  • Political Revolution - Discussed as a risk happening in the US, driven by Trump and his supporters.
  • G Zero World - Referenced as a geopolitical concept where global governance is absent.
  • Energy Race - Discussed as a competition between the US and China.
  • AI Bubble - Mentioned in relation to the overvaluation of AI companies.
  • B2B (Business-to-Business) - Referenced in the context of AI product sales.
  • Biotech Field - Mentioned as an area of potential AI-driven innovation.
  • Turing Test - Referenced in the context of AI's ability to mimic human interaction.
  • Sociopaths - Used as an analogy for AI programmed to please users without affect.
  • Populism - Discussed as a rising force in European politics.
  • Euroscepticism - Mentioned as a sentiment prevalent in some European countries.
  • Hybrid War - Described as the form of conflict Russia is engaging in with NATO.
  • Asymmetric Warfare - Referenced as a tactic used by Russia against European states.
  • Maga (Make America Great Again) - Referenced in relation to US politics and energy policy.

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