Partisan Gerrymandering Escalates After Supreme Court Abstains

Key Quotes

"a few years ago the supreme court basically gave the okay to partisan gerrymandering in a decision in 2019 where they said no federal courts don't actually have a role in policing this and at the time when that happened election experts were saying oh my gosh this might just open the door to crazy partisan gerrymandering in the near future and so that seems to be what we're seeing right now"

Miles Parks explains that a 2019 Supreme Court decision removed federal courts' ability to police partisan gerrymandering. This ruling, according to Parks, was predicted by election experts to lead to an increase in extreme partisan gerrymandering, which appears to be the current trend.

"well president trump right i mean he gave the order to texas to redraw districts to give republicans five new seats and that has set off this avalanche across the country this tit for tat we're seeing where then democrats felt the need to respond to that and then republicans seem to be responding to that democratic response and then democrats are responding to that republican response and so we're seeing this back and forth but it all goes back to president trump giving that initial order that he wanted seats drawn differently in Texas to make it specifically more likely for republicans to hold onto the house of representatives"

Ashley Lopez highlights President Trump's directive to Texas to redraw districts as the catalyst for a nationwide surge in partisan gerrymandering. Lopez notes that this action initiated a cycle of retaliatory redistricting efforts between Republicans and Democrats, all stemming from Trump's desire to increase Republican representation in the House.

"so the cook political report the way they lay it out which i think is pretty helpful is they play out all the different scenarios and they say if everything goes republicans' ways i'm talking court battles referendums every single break that can break breaks for republicans that they potentially could net four to five seats out of this redistricting battle if everything all of those different variables go the democrats' way then they could end up netting something like two to four seats after after all of this is said and done"

Miles Parks discusses projections from the Cook Political Report regarding the potential seat gains from redistricting. Parks explains that if all favorable outcomes occur for Republicans, they could gain four to five seats, while if all variables favor Democrats, they might gain two to four seats.

"if they decide that that is not acceptable then you could see this rash of redistricting across especially the south where there are a number of districts currently held by black democrats because the maps were mandated to be drawn that way if that changes then you could see a bunch of those states redraw basically a number of these black democrats out of power and that could end up meaning democrats lose up to a dozen or more seats potentially"

Miles Parks elaborates on the potential impact of a Supreme Court ruling on race-based redistricting. Parks explains that if the Court finds such practices unacceptable, it could trigger widespread redistricting, particularly in the South, potentially removing Black Democrats from power and leading to significant seat losses for the Democratic party.

"and then when you ask people just a just a flat out question of like do you like this like an nbc news poll a couple months ago asked voters should parties be drawing districts or should it be done by an independent commission and more than 80 of voters said we'd like partisan politics to be taken out of this that this should be done by independent commissions and so you simultaneously have people giving the okay to their party to do it while also saying parties shouldn't do it which i just think is really fascinating"

Ashley Lopez points out a seeming contradiction in public opinion regarding redistricting. Lopez notes that while voters may approve of their own party engaging in partisan redistricting, a significant majority, as shown in an NBC News poll, express a preference for independent commissions to draw district maps, indicating a desire to remove partisan politics from the process.

"i mean we don't have a lot of polling you know that gives us a better picture of what the electorate feels like about uh mid decade redistricting but i have seen you know little polls here and there like common cause had had one in september and something like 60 of americans including republicans and independents don't like mid decade redistricting it's very unpopular i mean it's why you saw a bunch of those independent commissions pass uh those ballot measures passed 10 20 years ago people just don't like this but they feel like their hands are tied because this is the political fight that that's before them"

Ashley Lopez discusses the unpopularity of mid-decade redistricting. Lopez mentions that polls, such as one from Common Cause, indicate that a majority of Americans, including Republicans and Independents, dislike mid-decade redistricting, which aligns with the past passage of ballot measures supporting independent commissions. Lopez suggests that despite this dislike, people feel compelled to engage in it due to the current political landscape.