Suburban Shift and GOP Divisions Signal Trump's Waning Influence

Key Quotes

"Yeah for good reason but before we start let me establish my tennessee seven street cred here for a minute okay so that's my old district i was with my district until late may of this year so this is where i spent a lot of time my my uh my sister in law was the campaign manager for the current republican mayor in the town franklin that is part of that district my brother in law is the chairman of the school board in williamson county which is a big part of the district i've been living eating breathing these sort of local politics for a while now and i think here's a good way to understand what's going on what you're looking at is the beginning of the fragmentation of the gop after the trump era"

David French establishes his personal connection to the district in question, highlighting that the recent special election results, despite a GOP win, indicate a significant shift. French argues that this outcome signals the initial stages of the Republican Party's fragmentation following the Trump presidency, suggesting internal divisions are becoming more apparent.

"a 13 point swing away from republican especially in suburban areas and i'll say you know the republican party nationally is basically being sustained by overwhelming dominance in rural areas and then like being able to win majorities in conservative suburbs but if the second part of that equation begins to deteriorate then it's it's big trouble everywhere right like at the end of the day most americans live in suburbs right it's just a numbers game and you really cannot sustain a big national majority and so if i were looking at this from like a 30 000 foot viewpoint that is the thing that would really be keeping me up at night if i'm a republican strategist like what's going on in these suburbs"

Jamelle Bouie emphasizes the significance of the 13-point swing in suburban areas, noting that the Republican Party's national strength relies heavily on rural dominance and suburban wins. Bouie explains that a deterioration in their suburban support would create substantial problems for the party, as most Americans live in these areas, making it difficult to maintain a national majority without them.

"if you have a situation where they're looking at potentially a 12 to 15 to 18 point group swing in the democratic direction then all of a sudden you get to numbers like 50 60 70 80 republicans who the primary threat to their career now begins to shift to become the general election voter and if the general election voter is the primary threat to your career then you're going to see more people standing up because now the career is at stake in a different way and it's not that now they may have re they'll cast it as i am outraged morally they'll they'll they'll cast it in these moral and strategic terms but for many of them it's just the career calculus is shifting"

David French discusses how a significant swing towards the Democratic party could alter the career calculus for Republican lawmakers. French argues that when general election voters become the primary threat to their careers, more Republicans will likely take public stances against party leadership, framing their actions as moral or strategic rather than purely self-preservation.

"so my suspicion my suspicion is that there were plenty of republicans who were very squirmy about this but they were still kind of going along you know again you don't want to get trump upset with you and this just gives them an opportunity combined with all of the other softening of his popularity and getting their clocks cleaned in the november elections this is just their opportunity to separate themselves from something they were really unhappy about anyway and i think your suggestion michelle that if trump were not this like if this were february of this year the do you might not have so much speaking up it'd be much more maybe behind the scenes like i don't know if we should be doing this but the fact that you know polls are consistently showing trump in the mid 30s to the very low 40s uh yeah it's sort of like this guy for comparison's sake when george w bush left office in 2009 his approval was about 33 right so like trump right now is in late stage w territory"

David French suggests that the current political climate, marked by Trump's declining popularity and recent election losses, provides Republicans with an opportunity to distance themselves from controversial actions. French posits that this situation allows them to speak out against issues they were previously uncomfortable with, especially when compared to the approval ratings of past presidents at the end of their terms.

"and so this is being treated with summary executions that we would call murder in america right if you are in america and you see somebody running away and you think that they have drugs you can't gun them down you can't even gun them down if you know they have drugs right and traditionally we have used the coast guard we have used military assets for drug interdiction in the past but you know what we do we stop we search and we arrest and then we prosecute and guess what that's better that's better than just blowing people up because you can't question a dead person right"

David French draws a parallel between the actions described in the Caribbean and legal standards in America regarding lethal force. French argues that the practice of blowing up boats and potentially killing individuals, even if suspected of drug trafficking, is akin to murder in the U.S., where established procedures involve stopping, searching, arresting, and prosecuting suspects rather than summary execution.

"trump has created this bubble for himself where none of that information gets in like none of it whatsoever he's sort of completely he's like blind to so much of the necessary information for just doing a barely competent president so i think you're right michelle to suggest that like stuff about public opinion stuff about his standing he just may not even be aware of it"

Jamelle Bouie describes Donald Trump's presidency as operating within a self-created information bubble. Bouie explains that this isolation prevents crucial political information, such as public opinion and his standing, from reaching Trump, rendering him "blind" to information necessary for even basic competence in the role of president.