Buy and Hold Investing: Minimizing Friction for Long-Term Returns
TL;DR
- Buy-and-hold investing minimizes long-term losses by eliminating fees, deferring taxes, and preventing behavioral errors like performance chasing, which erode capital over time.
- Overinvestment in new technologies like AI, even by successful companies, tends to yield lower future returns due to wasted capital expenditure and intense competition.
- Attempting to time the market by selling at highs and buying pullbacks incurs significant capital gains taxes, requiring substantial gains just to break even and hindering compounding.
- Diversifying across global assets, not just US stocks, reduces portfolio risk by ensuring no single investment's failure can catastrophically impact overall wealth.
- Markets react to unexpected events, not predictable ones, meaning investors worrying about known concerns are likely focusing on the wrong factors for future returns.
- Despite increased 401(k) contributions, market declines are still possible because corporate earnings, not just investment inflows, drive stock prices.
Deep Dive
Intelligent investing in 2026 hinges on embracing a disciplined, long-term strategy that acknowledges the inherent unpredictability of markets and the corrosive effects of friction. While external factors like AI bubbles and geopolitical turmoil create noise, the core principles of judgment, common sense, independence, and skepticism remain paramount for navigating financial uncertainty.
The most effective approach for investors is to adopt a "buy and hold" strategy, primarily through diversified index funds. This method directly combats the primary obstacles to long-term investment success: fees, taxes, and behavioral pitfalls like performance chasing. Fees, whether from active management or frequent trading, erode returns over time. Similarly, selling profitable assets triggers capital gains taxes, diminishing compounding potential. Most critically, the tendency to buy high and sell low based on market sentiment is a self-defeating cycle. By investing in broad market index funds and holding them, investors bypass these frictions, deferring taxes and removing emotional decision-making from the equation. This strategy proved its resilience in 2025, where robust corporate earnings and lower taxes drove significant market gains despite various geopolitical and economic concerns, demonstrating that market performance is fundamentally tied to company profitability.
Looking ahead to 2026, the focus should remain on personal preparedness rather than attempting to predict market movements. The presence of potential AI bubbles and geopolitical instability, while concerning, represents the "expected" risks that markets have already priced in. Historical data shows that markets react most strongly to the unexpected. Therefore, an investor's strategy should be designed to withstand any market outcome. This means emphasizing diversification by owning a broad range of assets globally, not just US stocks, to mitigate the impact of any single investment's underperformance. For those entering the market or concerned about current high valuations, a gradual, consistent investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging with small monthly contributions to index funds, is advisable. This avoids the tax and cost implications of trying to time the market by selling at highs and repurchasing at pullbacks, as the cost of capital gains taxes alone necessitates significant gains just to break even. Furthermore, the growth of 401(k) plans does not prevent market downturns; markets have historically declined even with consistent inflows, driven by factors like corporate earnings and investor sentiment rather than the source of funds. The ultimate lesson for 2026 is that attempting to predict market fluctuations is largely futile, reinforcing the enduring value of a patient, diversified, and low-friction investment approach.
Action Items
- Create personal investment prediction log: Record 5-10 market predictions (S&P 500 return, inflation, interest rates) at year-start for year-end comparison.
- Implement gradual market entry strategy: Invest $100-$500 monthly into 2-3 index funds to mitigate timing risk and tax impact.
- Audit personal portfolio diversification: Ensure asset allocation includes 1-2 international index funds to capture global market opportunities beyond US stocks.
- Analyze personal trading friction: Calculate estimated annual costs (fees, taxes) for current trading frequency to quantify impact on long-term returns.
Key Quotes
"First, most obviously, is fees. If you're either buying an actively managed investment or you're picking your own investments, every time you or somebody else trades, you incur those costs, and they can be very substantial, especially over the long term."
Jason Zweig argues that fees represent a significant obstacle to successful long-term investing. He explains that transaction costs, whether from active management or individual stock picking, accumulate over time and can significantly erode investment returns.
"Second is taxes. Every time you trade at a profit and you sell, you've got to pay taxes on that profit. Uncle Sam is your partner, and he's always got his hand in your pocket. If you buy and hold, you can defer most of those taxes, and often all of them, until you eventually sell."
Zweig highlights taxes as another form of "friction" that hinders investment growth. He points out that selling profitable investments triggers tax liabilities, which reduce the capital available for reinvestment and compounding. Zweig suggests that a buy-and-hold strategy allows investors to defer these tax obligations.
"So when companies earn more money that gets taxed at a somewhat lower rate thanks to legislation. So when companies earn more money that gets taxed less, their stocks go up."
Zweig explains that a combination of increased corporate earnings and a reduced tax rate contributed to the stock market's rise. He clarifies that when companies are more profitable and pay less in taxes, their stock values tend to increase.
"What markets react to is the unexpected. So when we find ourselves worrying about the things we already see, the one thing we can be pretty sure of is we're worrying about the wrong things."
Jason Zweig asserts that financial markets are primarily influenced by unforeseen events rather than predictable ones. He suggests that investors often focus their anxieties on known issues, which are likely already priced into the market, while the truly impactful market movements stem from the unexpected.
"I mean, look at the internet bubble, which not wrong, but just still a bubble. That's really the key thing here is that you can be right about how the future will unfold, but if you pay too much for the promise of that future, you're not really going to make any money doing it."
Zweig uses the internet bubble as an example to illustrate a critical investment principle. He explains that even if an investor correctly anticipates future trends, overpaying for those prospects can negate any potential gains. Zweig emphasizes that valuation is crucial, regardless of the accuracy of one's market predictions.
"So really the key is, if you want to sleep well at night, the greater the variety of assets you own, the less you should have to worry that any particular investment you own can kill you. It's a piece of what you own, it's not the whole thing."
Zweig advises that diversification is essential for achieving peace of mind as an investor. He explains that owning a wide range of assets reduces the risk associated with any single investment significantly impacting one's overall portfolio. Zweig clarifies that each asset should be considered a component, not the entirety, of an investment strategy.
Resources
External Resources
Articles & Papers
- "the intelligent investor column" (The Wall Street Journal) - Mentioned as the column written by Jason Zweig.
People
- Jason Zweig - Writes "the intelligent investor" column for The Wall Street Journal.
- Ryan Kutsun - Host of "The Journal" podcast.
- Ren and Ulrich - Submitted a question about low volatility investment portfolios.
- Lance Robertson - Submitted a question about timing the market.
- Steve Barrenack - Submitted a question about 401k plans and market downturns.
Organizations & Institutions
- The Wall Street Journal - Publication where Jason Zweig writes his column.
- S&P 500 - Stock market index mentioned for its performance.
- Nasdaq Composite - Stock market index mentioned for its performance.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average - Stock market index mentioned for its performance.
- Federal Reserve (Fed) - Mentioned in relation to interest rate questions.
- Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) - Mentioned in relation to capital gains tax.
Websites & Online Resources
- Spotify - Co-producer of "The Journal" podcast.
Other Resources
- Index funds - Discussed as a strategy for long-term investing.
- AI (Artificial Intelligence) - Discussed in relation to potential market bubbles and company investments.
- Dot com bubble - Referenced as a historical example of an investment bubble.
- 401k plans - Discussed in relation to market dynamics and investment strategies.