AFC Dark Horses Emerge Amidst Quarterback and Coaching Questions - Episode Hero Image

AFC Dark Horses Emerge Amidst Quarterback and Coaching Questions

The Herd with Colin Cowherd · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The Texans, with their strong defense and coaching staff, are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, capable of beating any opponent in the AFC.
  • Jacksonville's home-field advantage and strong momentum make them a significant threat to Buffalo, with a real chance to win the AFC.
  • The Bears' physicality and strong run game are well-suited for cold weather, potentially giving them an edge over Green Bay in their playoff matchup.
  • The Rams' offense, particularly without a mobile quarterback, tends to stall out, making them vulnerable to teams that can generate pressure.
  • The 49ers' recent struggles against teams with elite defenses since Week 6 suggest they may not have the offensive firepower to overcome Philadelphia.
  • Lamar Jackson's athleticism, while historically dominant, is aging, raising questions about his long-term effectiveness and cap hit for the Ravens.
  • Ben Johnson's Lions are built for inclement weather, making them a dangerous team in the playoffs, especially in potentially cold conditions.

Deep Dive

The NFL Wild Card Round preview highlights the Jaguars and Texans as dark horse contenders in a wide-open AFC, supported by strong coaching, physicality, and opportunistic play. Conversely, the Eagles and Bears, despite earning home-field advantage, face significant questions about their consistency and ability to perform against elite competition, suggesting their playoff runs may be short-lived. Lamar Jackson's future with the Ravens is uncertain, with his athletic decline raising concerns about his long-term contract and the team's Super Bowl aspirations.

The AFC playoff picture is defined by the rise of teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans, who are positioned as legitimate threats due to strong coaching, physicality, and the potential for opportunistic play. The Jaguars, in particular, are seen as a significant challenge for the Buffalo Bills, with their home-field advantage and momentum suggesting they can not only win their matchup but also contend for the AFC Championship. The Texans, led by a promising young coach and quarterback, are also viewed as a team that opponents would prefer to avoid, possessing the mentality and talent to surprise. In contrast, the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears, despite securing home games, are perceived as vulnerable. The Eagles' inconsistent performance and the Bears' defensive weaknesses raise doubts about their ability to advance, suggesting their playoff journeys might be brief. The Chargers, while possessing a superstar quarterback in Justin Herbert, are seen as facing a difficult matchup against the Patriots, whose defense may not pose the same existential threat as other potential opponents.

A significant storyline is the potential decline of Lamar Jackson's effectiveness. While he has been a unique and dominant force, questions are emerging about how his athleticism will age and impact his play in his late twenties and beyond. This raises concerns for the Ravens regarding his substantial contract and their ability to compete for championships in the coming years. The discussion around top NFL head coaches emphasizes the importance of adaptability and building teams suited for various conditions, with new contenders like Ben Johnson of the Lions emerging. The analysis suggests that teams built for physicality and "crappy weather" operations, like the Bears and potentially the Eagles, may have an advantage in the postseason, while teams reliant on less mobile quarterbacks or less physical play may struggle. The Chargers' matchup against the Patriots is framed by the potential for the Patriots' defense to exploit offensive line weaknesses, while the Ravens' coaching situation is analyzed through the lens of John Harbaugh's playoff record with Lamar Jackson, suggesting a need for a coach who can adapt to an aging, athletic quarterback.

Action Items

  • Audit team evaluation process: Define 3-5 objective criteria for assessing team strength beyond win-loss records (ref: performance metrics).
  • Create runbook template: Define 5 required sections (setup, common failures, rollback, monitoring) to prevent knowledge silos.
  • Implement mutation testing: Target 3 core modules to identify untested edge cases beyond coverage metrics.
  • Track 5-10 high-variance events per game (fumble recoveries, special teams plays) to measure outcome impact.
  • Measure team strength disconnect: For 3-5 teams, calculate correlation between win-loss record and power ranking score.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"I like the jaguars and i think they can pound them now i will say buffalo has been a weird team that week to week you know you get really good halves really bad halves i think jacksonville is completely legit i think they're the third or fourth best team in the league for them to be at home as an underdog to me feels incredibly disrespectful"

Colin Cowherd argues that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a legitimate contender, suggesting that their status as an underdog at home against the Buffalo Bills is a sign of disrespect. Cowherd highlights the Jaguars' strong performance and overall legitimacy as a top-tier team in the league.

"I really like the texans i think you and i both feel this you know you just forget they keep making the playoffs and c j stroud won't play off games like demeco ryans is like mike mcdonald you know you you talk to guys around the league like mike mcdonald and demeco ryans as defensive coaches jesse minter is a defensive coordinator they're just different"

Colin Cowherd expresses strong confidence in the Houston Texans, emphasizing their playoff presence and the impact of their coaching staff. Cowherd specifically praises head coach DeMeco Ryans and defensive coordinator Mike McDonald, suggesting their defensive coaching acumen sets them apart.

"I do think the nfc north is a lot better than people give it credit for and i think the bears are the second best bet on the board after jacksonville so yeah a lot there um caleb's best game of the season and arguably his career was against cleveland and their defense was very good this year and it was the coldest game at soldier field in like 20 years um his arm is ridiculous ridiculous"

Colin Cowherd believes the NFC North is stronger than perceived and identifies the Chicago Bears as a strong bet. Cowherd points to quarterback Caleb Williams' impressive performance in difficult conditions against a strong Cleveland defense as evidence of his capability.

"I'm putting him third you're putting him second yeah okay but but okay fine okay but my but my thing okay so now harbaugh harbaugh wins everywhere he goes everywhere is a great culture guy yeah i don't know man i don't know like ben johnson calls the plays well yeah but can we can we have him go through a full season before i'm just saying like jim harbaugh runs a little bit too much for my liking like he kicks field goals a little too often for my liking"

In a discussion about ranking coaches, Colin Cowherd expresses reservations about Jim Harbaugh's coaching style, specifically his tendency to run the ball frequently and kick too many field goals. Cowherd acknowledges Harbaugh's success but suggests that Ben Johnson, despite being early in his coaching career, might be a more appealing option.

"I think what makes you you you you know we always think of green bay i mean green bay always favre big arm aaron big arm love big arm flacco big arm lamar not so much mahomes big arm i think chicago is if if the weather is lousy for the next three weeks i think the bears are completely built for it for the record detroit wasn't more ben was at because goff's not good in that weather but they were they were indoors so i always feel like when goff goes outside the odds change"

Colin Cowherd posits that the Chicago Bears are well-constructed to succeed in poor weather conditions, contrasting them with teams like Green Bay that rely on strong-armed quarterbacks. Cowherd suggests that while Green Bay's quarterbacks have powerful arms, the Bears' team build is better suited for adverse weather, implying that this could be a significant advantage.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Elway" - Mentioned in relation to Denver's home field advantage.

Articles & Papers

  • "Project 2025" (David Graham) - Discussed as part of a look back at 2025.

People

  • Mike Delaroccha - Host of the podcast "Sacred Lessons."
  • Katie Couric - Host of the podcast "Next Question."
  • Cam Jordan - Host of the podcast "Off the Edge with Cam Jordan."
  • Brett Favre - Mentioned in relation to the start of his career with the Green Bay Packers.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Discussed in relation to his mood changes and come-from-behind wins.
  • Derek Carr - Mentioned in comparison to Aaron Rodgers' come-from-behind wins.
  • Derrick Henry - Mentioned as a top running back in the NFL.
  • Christian McCaffrey - Mentioned for his high usage rate.
  • Cam Newton - Mentioned in relation to athletic quarterbacks aging and his last Pro Bowl.
  • Ben Roethlisberger - Mentioned for lowering his shoulder.
  • Josh Allen - Mentioned for his ability to extend plays.
  • Matt Stafford - Mentioned in relation to rolling the pocket and his passing.
  • Peyton Manning - Mentioned in relation to Denver's home field advantage.
  • Tom Brady - Mentioned in relation to playing into one's 40s.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo - Mentioned as a backup quarterback for the Rams.
  • Stetson Bennett - Mentioned as a backup quarterback for the Rams.
  • Baker Mayfield - Mentioned in relation to Liam Cohen's work in Jacksonville.
  • Jordan Love - Discussed in relation to the Packers' quarterback situation.
  • Malik Willis - Mentioned as a potential option over Jordan Love.
  • DK Metcalf - Mentioned as returning for the Seahawks.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown - Mentioned for his performance against the Bears.
  • Jared Goff - Discussed in relation to playing in bad weather.
  • Adrian Peterson - Mentioned as a cyborg-like player.
  • Nick Sirianni - Mentioned for his high winning percentage with the Eagles.
  • Mike Tomlin - Mentioned for winning a division with the Steelers.
  • Sean Payton - Ranked as a coach.
  • Mike Vrabel - Ranked as a coach.
  • Josh McDaniels - Mentioned as an offensive coordinator.
  • Brian Flores - Mentioned as a coordinator.
  • Matt LaFleur - Mentioned as a coach.
  • Liam Cohen - Mentioned for his work in Jacksonville.
  • Sean McDermott - Mentioned for his winning percentage.
  • Kyle Shanahan - Ranked as a coach and discussed for his offensive play calling.
  • Jim Harbaugh - Ranked as a coach and discussed for his culture building.
  • Sean McVay - Ranked as a coach.
  • Ben Johnson - Ranked as a coach and discussed for building a team for bad weather.
  • Mike McDonald - Ranked as a coach and discussed for his defensive schemes.
  • Demeco Ryans - Ranked as a coach.
  • Robert Saleh - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers' defensive risks.
  • Andy Reid - Ranked as a coach.
  • Bill Belichick - Mentioned in comparison to Andy Reid.
  • John Harbaugh - Discussed in relation to his tenure with the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.
  • Lamar Jackson - Discussed in relation to his athleticism, contract, and future performance.
  • Justin Herbert - Discussed in relation to the Chargers' offensive line and his performance.
  • Brock Purdy - Discussed in relation to the 49ers' offense and pressure.
  • C.J. Stroud - Mentioned in relation to the Texans' playoff chances.
  • Trevor Lawrence - Discussed in relation to the Jaguars' performance.
  • Bryce Young - Discussed in relation to the Panthers' quarterback situation.
  • Kirk Cousins - Mentioned in relation to non-mobile quarterbacks.
  • Darnold - Mentioned in relation to the Seahawks' offense.
  • Kittle - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers' injuries.
  • Davante Adams - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' offense.
  • Puka Nacua - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' offense.
  • Michael Gallup - Mentioned in relation to the Cowboys.
  • Trey McBride - Mentioned as a good player for the Panthers.
  • AJ Brown - Mentioned as a matchup for the Rams and in relation to Mike Vrabel.
  • Saquon Barkley - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offense.
  • Darnell Washington - Mentioned in relation to boot stuff.
  • Jalen Hurts - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' quarterback.
  • Goff - Mentioned in relation to the Lions' offense.
  • Jameson Williams - Mentioned in relation to the Lions' offense.
  • Caleb Williams - Discussed in relation to the Bears' quarterback situation and playing in bad weather.
  • Colton Loveland - Mentioned in relation to the Bears' tight end play.
  • Luther Burden - Mentioned in relation to the Bears' offense.
  • Cole Kmet - Mentioned in relation to the Bears' tight end play.
  • DK Metcalf - Mentioned in relation to the Seahawks.
  • Vince Carter - Mentioned in relation to a dunk ranking.
  • Jalen Carter - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Patrick Mahomes - Mentioned in relation to elite quarterbacks.
  • Jalen Ramsey - Mentioned in relation to the Dolphins.
  • Dan Marino - Mentioned in relation to warm-weather dynasties.
  • Dak Prescott - Mentioned in relation to the Cowboys.
  • Russell Wilson - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' defense.
  • Baker Mayfield - Mentioned in relation to Liam Cohen's work.
  • Jordan Love - Mentioned in relation to the Packers' quarterback.
  • Mike McCarthy - Mentioned in relation to the Packers.
  • Jaren Hall - Mentioned in relation to the Vikings.
  • Josh Jacobs - Mentioned in relation to the Raiders.
  • Tyreek Hill - Mentioned in relation to the Dolphins.
  • Jaylen Waddle - Mentioned in relation to the Dolphins.
  • Travis Kelce - Mentioned in relation to the Chiefs.
  • Patrick Queen - Mentioned in relation to the Ravens.
  • Will Anderson Jr. - Mentioned in relation to the Texans.
  • George Karlaftis - Mentioned in relation to the Chiefs.
  • Myles Garrett - Mentioned in relation to the Browns.
  • Nick Bosa - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • Maxx Crosby - Mentioned in relation to the Raiders.
  • T.J. Watt - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers.
  • Micah Parsons - Mentioned in relation to the Cowboys.
  • Dan Morgan - Mentioned as the GM for the Panthers.
  • Ricky Pearsall - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers' injuries.
  • Trent Williams - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers' injuries.
  • Kittle - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers' injuries.
  • Jauan Jennings - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • Geno Smith - Mentioned in relation to the Seahawks.
  • Derrick Henry - Mentioned in relation to the Titans.
  • Ryan Tannehill - Mentioned in relation to the Titans.
  • Deebo Samuel - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • George Kittle - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • Brandon Aiyuk - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • Christian McCaffrey - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • Brock Purdy - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • Fred Warner - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • Charvarius Ward - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • Talanoa Hufanga - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
  • Jaire Alexander - Mentioned in relation to the Packers.
  • Devin White - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers.
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers.
  • Mike Evans - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers.
  • Baker Mayfield - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers.
  • Jalen Carter - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Darius Slay - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • James Bradberry - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Reed Blankenship - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Kevin Byard - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • A.J. Brown - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • DeVonta Smith - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Jalen Carter - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Jason Kelce - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Lane Johnson - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Jordan Mailata - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Landon Dickerson - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Zach Cunningham - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Nakobe Dean - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles.
  • Kenny Pickett - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers.
  • Diontae Johnson - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers.
  • George Pickens - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers.
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers.
  • Patrick Peterson - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers.
  • Joey Porter Jr. - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers.
  • Justin Fields - Mentioned in relation to the Bears.
  • D.J. Moore - Mentioned in relation to the Bears.
  • Cole Kmet - Mentioned in relation to the Bears.
  • Darnell Mooney - Mentioned in relation to the Bears.
  • Yannick Ngakoue - Mentioned in relation to the Bears.
  • Monte Sweat - Mentioned in relation to the Bears.
  • Jaquan Brisker - Mentioned in relation to the Bears.
  • Kyler Gordon - Mentioned in relation to the Bears.
  • Devin Hester - Mentioned in

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