NFL Playoff Best Ball: Strategic Roster Construction and Bye Week Management

Sports Gambling Podcast · December 31, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

Best Ball drafts for NFL playoffs require strategic roster construction to maximize value, focusing on players from teams likely to advance to ensure active participants through the Super Bowl.
Selecting players from teams with favorable playoff matchups is crucial, as it increases the probability of those players performing well and advancing through multiple rounds.
Diversifying team stacks across both AFC and NFC contenders is a recommended strategy to hedge against specific team outcomes and maximize potential Super Bowl correlation.
Considering "game stacks" by pairing players from opposing teams in potential high-scoring matchups can offer significant upside if those games unfold as predicted.
Drafting a balanced roster with a mix of high-upside players and consistent performers is key, while avoiding over-reliance on players from teams with a high probability of receiving a bye week.
Early-round running back selections in playoff Best Ball drafts should consider potential bye weeks, as a player receiving a bye in Week 1 can significantly impact their overall value.
The "naked" quarterback strategy, selecting only one quarterback, can be viable if that player is projected for a high ceiling and the roster is built to compensate for potential bye weeks.

Deep Dive

The NFL playoff best ball draft format on Underdog Fantasy presents a strategic challenge: balancing team stacks with individual player upside, especially as the playoff picture solidifies. This format requires participants to predict which teams will advance furthest, and crucially, how to construct rosters that can overcome bye weeks and potential early exits, making roster construction a high-stakes game of foresight and risk mitigation.

The core implication of this draft format is the heightened importance of team correlation and strategic bye-week management. While traditional fantasy football often emphasizes individual player talent, playoff best ball necessitates building around teams likely to go deep into the postseason. This means considering "stacks" -- pairing quarterbacks with their pass-catchers or running backs -- to maximize points from successful teams. However, as seen in the draft, teams that secure a bye week early can create a roster liability in the initial rounds, forcing drafters to weigh the benefit of a rested star against the immediate point production of players on teams playing in the wild card round. Furthermore, the draft highlights the tension between taking "chalk" -- highly popular, safe picks like Christian McCaffrey or Puka Nacua -- and employing contrarian strategies, such as drafting players from less-favored teams or employing unconventional roster constructions like "naked" quarterbacks (a quarterback without a direct pass-catcher stack). This tension is amplified by the limited roster size and the need to advance through multiple rounds, where a single well-correlated team stack can propel a roster forward while a collection of individual stars on eliminated teams leads to early elimination.

Ultimately, success in NFL playoff best ball hinges on accurately forecasting playoff trajectories and constructing rosters that capitalize on potential deep runs while mitigating the impact of bye weeks. The strategy involves a delicate balance of team correlation, individual player upside, and an understanding of how bye weeks and early eliminations can significantly alter roster value throughout the tournament.

Action Items

Audit draft strategy: For 3-5 drafts, analyze player selection variance against projection models to identify optimal draft approaches.
Create team evaluation rubric: Define criteria for weighing win-loss records against performance metrics (e.g., adjusted scores, expected point differential).
Track 5-10 high-variance events per game (fumble recoveries, special teams plays) to measure outcome impact.
Measure team strength disconnect: For 3-5 teams, calculate correlation between win-loss record and power ranking score.

Key Quotes

"I mean in in online online yelling i'm not using all caps i'm simply just writing offensive rookie of the year or most valuable player and then a player's name with supporting evidence for the player and why they could be the best candidate so you need okay so you need trevor lawrence mvp jackson dart i don't need it i'm just jackson dart offensive rookie of the year the data is putting me there but sean robinson offensive player of the year again data is putting me there abdul carter defensive rookie of the year who's not a he's not even on the board i don't even need that bet that's just me being a fan"

Kramer explains his approach to advocating for award candidates on social media. He emphasizes using data and evidence to support his picks, rather than simply shouting opinions. This highlights a data-driven and reasoned strategy for engaging in online discussions about player awards.

"I mean brian burns had a great season but it's hard to josh sweat double digit sacks that was a that was a great bet that was a great bet 500 to one was that like minus 20 000 500 to one all right hey uh playoffs right around the corner thought it'd be fun to do one of these nfl playoff best ball drafts of course you can join in on the action over at underdog fantasy promo code sgp n super fun and uh why not bring us on uh one of our fantasy guy fellow fantasy football aficionado and you know i'm from the nascar gambling podcast big new england patriots fan cody z what's happening cody"

Sean Stegman discusses the difficulty of betting against established players like Josh Sweat, even when other players like Brian Burns have strong seasons. He then transitions to introducing the concept of an NFL playoff best ball draft on Underdog Fantasy, inviting Cody Zeeb to join the discussion. This shows a blend of analytical betting commentary and practical promotion of fantasy sports platforms.

"well i think that uh i'm fine with not getting the buy i'm i'm good with let's keep playing they've been great on the road this year 8 and 0 i mean it's we don't need the buy anyways let denver have it that's fine might uh i'm not that far from denver so maybe we can get an afc championship game in denver i wouldn't mind that trip so i'm not really that opposed to it um and then i can play drake round in the first or play drake may in the first round and it's even better yes"

Cody Zeeb expresses his preference against receiving a bye week, favoring continued play due to the team's strong road performance. He suggests that letting Denver have the bye is acceptable and even presents an opportunity for a potential AFC Championship game in Denver. This demonstrates a strategic mindset focused on maintaining momentum and leveraging favorable matchups.

"i mean like the leagues i was the best in this year i didn't win the championship which was ridiculous great moment to uh to i was the uh td king i guess that won the championship oh okay so there you go shout out shout out to andrew rob yes shout out to rowdy nation checking in saying nascar guy here love being able to see cody on the main show always good to have cody on here and of course the nascar gambling podcast wherever you get your podcasts him and rod do a great job breaking down nascar agreed"

The speaker reflects on a personal fantasy league experience where despite being the "best" during the season, they did not win the championship. They acknowledge Andrew Rob as the champion and then transition to giving a shout-out to Cody Zeeb and his work on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast. This illustrates a common fantasy sports narrative of regular-season success not translating to a championship and highlights the collaborative nature of the podcast network.

"i mean i just anyone that's been eliminated that's funny yeah keshawn boute woody marks luther burden dalton kincaid christian watson parker washington goes there now i got them both kramer oh look at cody all right that's sharp that's sharp that's sharp that's uh you can this is the kind of guy you'd want to hire hypothetically if you were looking for a fantasy consigliere yes although i don't know if i don't want him to get overwhelmed and not pay attention to not pay attention to your don't worry i'm i'm in plenty of leagues so sounds once once you get the system down it's really it's really pretty smooth"

The speaker points out that seeing eliminated teams drafted in a fantasy context can be humorous. They then praise Cody's draft picks, suggesting he would be a valuable fantasy consigliere. Cody responds by stating he manages many leagues and that the process becomes smooth once the system is understood, indicating a high level of experience and organization.

"i mean i think that the idea of two like two skill players unstaked is i think is also in these formats is completely fine now cody grabs uh i agree with you so how about devonta smith there oh there you go oh there you go cody grabs stefan diggs well you want to be careful grabbing stefan diggs oh yeah according to the corp reports i mean you got cardi b we'll see calm down bro just take a fucking chill dude jesus said pink cocaine uh we'll see what the uh we'll let the legal process play out but certainly not a great look"

The speaker discusses the validity of drafting two unstaked skill players in fantasy formats. They then comment on Cody's picks of Devonta Smith and Stefon Diggs, cautioning about potential legal issues for Diggs. This shows a strategic discussion about roster construction and an awareness of off-field factors that could impact player performance.

Resources

External Resources

Books

Videos & Documentaries

Research & Studies

Tools & Software

Underdog Fantasy - Platform for best ball drafts and contests.

Articles & Papers

People

Cody Z - Guest, host of the Nascar Gambling Podcast, New England Patriots fan.
Sean St - Host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.
Ryan Real Money Kramer - Host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.

Organizations & Institutions

NFL (National Football League) - Subject of sports discussion and playoff best ball drafts.
New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team for performance analysis and potential future dominance.
Chargers - Mentioned in relation to potential playoff matchups and resting starters.
Broncos - Mentioned as a potential playoff opponent and favored team.
Jags - Mentioned in relation to playoff potential and team performance.
49ers - Mentioned in relation to playoff potential and team performance.
Eagles - Mentioned for locking up the NFC East.
Texans - Mentioned as an interesting team with a good defense.
Steelers - Mentioned as a team with potential playoff qualification.
Ravens - Mentioned as a team with potential playoff qualification.
Panthers - Mentioned as a team with potential playoff qualification.
Bucks - Mentioned as a team with potential playoff qualification.
Chiefs - Mentioned in relation to potential playoff qualification.
Lions - Mentioned in relation to potential playoff qualification.
Patriots - Mentioned in relation to potential playoff qualification.
Bills - Mentioned in relation to team performance against teams over .500.
Falcons - Mentioned in relation to a loss.
Miami - Mentioned as a frisky team.
NFC - Conference mentioned in relation to playoff seeding and matchups.
AFC - Conference mentioned in relation to playoff seeding and matchups.
NASCAR - Mentioned in relation to the Nascar Gambling Podcast.
F1 (Formula 1) - Mentioned in relation to a show.
Patreon - Mentioned as a platform for bonus podcasts.
Discord - Mentioned in relation to a league.
Spotify - Mentioned as a platform for podcasts.

Courses & Educational Resources

Websites & Online Resources

Gemini - Mentioned for the Gemini credit card offering bitcoin back on purchases.
MyBookie.ag - Sports betting platform mentioned with a promo code.
SportsGamblingPodcast.com - Website where articles are written and content is hosted.
Kalshi - Platform for live trading of predictions, mentioned with a promo code.
TrueDiagnostic.com - Website for health testing, mentioned with a promo code.
Underdog Fantasy - Platform for best ball drafts and contests.
Rhythm - App for tracking picks and models, mentioned with a promo code.
Novig - Sports prediction market, mentioned with a promo code.
Cigarbid.com - Online cigar auction site.

Podcasts & Audio

Sports Gambling Podcast (SGPn) - Podcast hosted by Sean St. and Ryan Kramer, featuring guests and discussions on NFL and other sports.
Nascar Gambling Podcast - Podcast hosted by Cody Z. and Rod.

Other Resources

Bitcoin - Cryptocurrency mentioned in relation to the Gemini credit card.
Crypto - Cryptocurrency mentioned in relation to the Gemini credit card.
Best Ball Drafts - A type of fantasy football draft format.
Awards Market - Market for betting on sports awards.
Live Odds - Odds that adjust in real time.
Fantasy Football - Mentioned in relation to player drafts and strategy.
Dynasty League - A type of fantasy football league.
Sleeper - A fantasy sports platform.
Yahoo - A fantasy sports platform.
Gauntlet - A fantasy football contest format.
Super Bowl - The championship game of the NFL.
MVP (Most Valuable Player) - An award in sports.
Offensive Rookie of the Year - An award in sports.
Defensive Rookie of the Year - An award in sports.
Offensive Player of the Year - An award in sports.
Defensive Player of the Year - An award in sports.
Betting - Mentioned in various contexts related to sports.
Promo Code SGPN - A promotional code used across multiple platforms.
Promo Code SGPN25 - A promotional code used for Rhythm.
Promo Code SGPN - A promotional code used for Novig.
Ladder Bets - A type of sports bet.
Car Lifts - A type of bet in Nascar.
Parlay Optimizer - A betting tool.
Player Props - Bets on individual player statistics.
College Football Playoff - Post-season college football games.
Bowl Episode - An episode discussing college football bowl games.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
Top 10, Top 5, Win the Race, Top Manufacturer - Bet types in Nascar.
Ladder Bet - A type of sports bet.
Car Lift - A type of bet in Nascar.
**Top 10,