Premier League Squad Rotation: Stability Versus Intensity - Episode Hero Image

Premier League Squad Rotation: Stability Versus Intensity

The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Premier League teams' sprinting distance and sprints per game have increased by 30% in the last decade, indicating higher game intensity rather than just more matches.
  • Chelsea's extensive player acquisition strategy results in the lowest squad stability rating, necessitating high rotation due to frequent red cards and a busy schedule.
  • Pep Guardiola's Manchester City is demonstrating a tactical shift towards less rigid player positioning and more fluidity, potentially fostering player relationships to compensate for lost experience.
  • Crystal Palace's Oliver Glasner prioritizes squad stability by making substitutions later on average (76th minute), reflecting a strategy of maintaining a consistent lineup when performing well.
  • Squad stability does not directly correlate with league points; teams often spin the narrative to fit current form, suggesting no single perfect science to rotation.
  • Defensive cohesion is paramount for teams with less possession, requiring players to instinctively understand each other's tendencies and build stable relationships.

Deep Dive

Squad rotation in the Premier League reveals a complex relationship between team stability and success, with no direct correlation found between more rotation and increased league points. While conventional wisdom suggests a settled squad fosters cohesion and performance, data indicates that teams employ varied strategies, from extensive rotation to maintaining a consistent lineup, each with potential benefits and drawbacks depending on context and objectives.

The intensity of modern Premier League football, marked by increased sprinting and passing volume, necessitates careful squad management. This intensity, rather than simply the number of games, drives higher physical loads and injury risks. Teams with a defensive focus or those employing aggressive pressing schemes often experience greater physical demands, particularly through recovery sprints. This trend is reshaping player development, with sports scientists increasingly focusing on game-like intensity during training to prepare players for these demands.

Chelsea exemplifies a highly rotational approach, driven by a strategy of acquiring a large number of young players and managing a potentially 67-game season. This model, while successful from a business perspective in developing and potentially selling players, presents coaching challenges in building consistent on-field relationships and may not be conducive to deep runs in top-tier competitions. Conversely, Crystal Palace demonstrates extreme squad stability, with manager Oliver Glasner averaging the latest substitution times in the league. This stability is partly due to a less deep squad and a specialized system, though external factors like injuries and international tournaments are forcing some changes. The analysis suggests that while squad depth allows top teams like Manchester City to rotate effectively without significant drop-off in quality, teams at the lower end of the table may seek stability through rotation to find a winning formula amidst fewer competitions.

Ultimately, the choice between squad stability and rotation is not a simple equation for success. The perceived benefits of a settled team, such as established relationships and understanding, can be undermined by fatigue. Conversely, excessive rotation can lead to a lack of cohesion and unfamiliarity, impacting performance. The data indicates that teams can achieve success with either approach, suggesting that the optimal strategy is nuanced, adapting to individual team strengths, player availability, and tactical objectives, rather than adhering to a universal rule.

Action Items

  • Audit squad stability: Quantify player minute consistency across 10-15 recent matches to identify rotation patterns.
  • Measure player relationship impact: Track correlation between starting XI consistency and team performance metrics over 5-7 games.
  • Analyze substitution timing: For 3-5 teams, calculate average substitution minute and its effect on game outcomes.
  • Evaluate squad depth strategy: Compare performance of teams with <15 core players versus those with >18 across 20-25 matches.
  • Assess positional rotation impact: For 3-5 key positions (e.g., center back, midfield), measure physical load changes with increased rotation.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"across the whole of european top five leagues sprinting is as is sprinting distance i should say has been on the rise and is as high as it's ever been even more so in the premier league it's consistently been the highest in the premier league of the the five leagues which does does pass the eye test i suppose by by that measure but there's also a piece in the summer written by john burn murdoch of the financial times who wrote about this in general about the trends over a longer period and wrote in general about the number of passes per game in the premier league has risen by 20 since 2010 but specifically about the the sprinting and sprints per game of have increased constantly and consistently since he wrote 2007 and are up by 30 in the last decade so it shows that teams are playing with more yeah high intensity i don't necessarily think that the the fixed schedule and more games being a could be a key reason or the only reason for the maybe a higher risk of injury or anything that comes with it it's by the looks of it by the evidence it's the intensity of the games rather than the quantity of them"

Mark Carey explains that Premier League matches are more intense than ever, supported by data showing a consistent rise in sprinting distance and sprints per game since 2007. Carey highlights that this increased intensity, rather than just the quantity of games, is the primary driver of physical demands on players.

"and i think actually if you break it down it's the answer is quite simple and the way that they both base their style overall on positional principles they have a very similar idea of the way that they like to play football and of course enzo maresca was a staff member colleague of pep guardiola at manchester city he was assistant manager there when they won the treble in the 22 23 season he was in the he won the premier league two title with the academy as well a couple of seasons before that so he's got a really clear idea of how manchester city operate and how they like to play football which is very closely aligned with the way that they currently do as well so it essentially breaks down some of the similarities particularly in possession some of the differences of which there are a couple out of possession and actually says that this news makes a lot more sense than maybe others might give it credit for"

Michael Cox explains that Enzo Maresca is a strong candidate for the Manchester City manager role because his tactical approach aligns closely with Pep Guardiola's. Cox points out that Maresca's experience as Guardiola's assistant, including winning the treble and a Premier League 2 title, means he deeply understands Manchester City's playing philosophy.

"essentially creating a stability rating and the the very simple way to describe it is the higher the the rating which i've done as a percentage the the more the players are played consistently across the season and the lower the rating means far more rotation chopping and changing for whatever reasons and this can be for multiple reasons and we could talk about chelsea as to why that might be it might not always be injury it might not always just be that maresca wants to chop and change fixed schedule comes into it suspension as a key one especially with chelsea given that they've had five red cards in the premier league this season but it does also yeah broadly speaking give an idea of what maybe a manager likes to do with their squad do they like to have a settled squad do they not and why is that so with i've got a bar chart within the the piece that sort of ranks all of the premier league sides and yes chelsea are the lowest by this measure of squad stability"

Mark Carey describes a "squad stability rating" used to quantify how consistently players are utilized throughout a season. Carey explains that a higher rating indicates consistent player minutes, while a lower rating signifies more rotation, and notes that Chelsea currently has the lowest stability rating in the Premier League due to various factors including suspensions.

"i always say it on this podcast but i think the most important thing in football is relationships between players i think it's you can't completely separate it from individual quality but i think it's more important really than individual quality or in terms of managers and instructions i just think good players get them playing together for a long period of time and they'll generally work it out so yeah the more rotation the more that's going to be an issue"

Liam Tharme emphasizes the critical role of player relationships in football, suggesting they are more important than individual quality or managerial instructions. Tharme argues that consistent playing time allows these relationships to develop, and that excessive rotation can hinder this crucial aspect of team cohesion.

"there is no perfect science to it and i essentially ran a quick analysis to to show that yeah more rotation does not equal more league points did this over a course of i think seven seasons and looked at this squad stability rating as a percentage and the number of points in a league season that that everyone picked up and there was no relationship which makes complete sense and i think that this in general we we tend to spin the narrative as we see fit so if a team is in good form and they're a really settled side then we say that it's because they they have that connection that relationship and they know how each other plays and if they're in bad form and they're a settled side then we say that it's maybe because they're fatigued and they need freshening up the truth is somewhere in between and i think this is why it's good to talk about it maybe myth bust a little bit to be like there is no perfect science to it and maybe that's okay"

Mark Carey concludes that there is no direct correlation between squad rotation and the number of league points a team earns, based on a seven-season analysis. Carey suggests that the narrative around stability and success is often spun based on a team's current form, rather than a consistent scientific principle.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast" by Michael Bailey, Michael Cox, Mark Carey, and Liam Tharme - Mentioned as the source of the discussion on squad rotation and Premier League tactics.

Articles & Papers

  • "Who has the most settled squad in the Premier League?" (The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast) - Discussed as the episode's central theme, exploring squad stability and its relation to success.
  • Graphic by Tom Harris (The Athletic) - Used to illustrate data from Skill Corner showing rising sprinting distances in European leagues, particularly the Premier League.
  • Piece by John Burn Murdoch (Financial Times) - Referenced for its analysis of trends in Premier League passes per game and sprints per game since 2007.
  • Piece by David Ornstein (The Athletic) - Reported on Enzo Maresca being a candidate for the Manchester City manager position.
  • Piece by Mark Carey (The Athletic) - Analyzed Enzo Maresca's potential candidacy for Manchester City, focusing on tactical similarities with Pep Guardiola.
  • Piece by Ryan Best (The Athletic, formerly 538) - Provided the methodology for quantifying squad stability by mapping player minutes.
  • Piece by Simon Johnson (The Athletic) - Mentioned regarding Maresca's aim to build a squad for a potential 67-game season.

People

  • Pep Guardiola - Manager of Manchester City, discussed in relation to Enzo Maresca's potential succession and tactical approach.
  • Enzo Maresca - Manager at Chelsea, discussed as a candidate for Manchester City manager and for his squad rotation tactics at Chelsea.
  • Tom Harris - Colleague at The Athletic who created a graphic on sprinting data.
  • John Burn Murdoch - Financial Times writer whose piece on Premier League trends was referenced.
  • David Ornstein - Athletic reporter who broke the story about Enzo Maresca being a candidate for Manchester City.
  • Ryan Best - Colleague at The Athletic, formerly at 538, who developed a methodology for squad stability.
  • Graham Potter - Former Chelsea manager, mentioned in the context of squad volume issues.
  • Ange Postecoglou - Manager whose team's aggressive defensive style was used as an example of high intensity.
  • Daniel Munoz - Crystal Palace player, mentioned as integral to their recent play and currently out injured.
  • Dougie Kamara - Crystal Palace player, mentioned as being out through injury.
  • Eberechi Eze - Crystal Palace player, mentioned as being at the Africa Cup of Nations.
  • Oliver Glasner - Manager of Crystal Palace, discussed for his team's squad stability and late substitutions.
  • Javi Simons - Player whose runs were mentioned in the context of Tottenham's play.
  • Martin Odegaard - Arsenal player, discussed for his relationship with Bukayo Saka and Ben White.
  • Bukayo Saka - Arsenal player, discussed for his interplay with Martin Odegaard.
  • Ben White - Arsenal player, discussed for his role in creating space for others.
  • Timmy - Player mentioned for defensive strength and role in creating space.
  • Rodri - Manchester City player, mentioned as being absent and the lack of a direct replacement.
  • Gundogan - Manchester City player, mentioned as having left and the tactical problems caused by his absence.
  • Ederson - Manchester City player, mentioned as having left the team.
  • Bernardo Silva - Manchester City player, mentioned as still being with the team and his role in increasing rhythm.
  • Jack Grealish - Manchester City player, discussed in relation to defensive duties and tactical approach.
  • Nunes - Manchester City player, mentioned for coming on and increasing rhythm.
  • Kevin De Bruyne - Manchester City player, mentioned for defensive duties and upcoming game.
  • Jordan Campbell - Manchester City correspondent for The Athletic.
  • Vitoria Pereira - Former manager of Wolves.
  • Rob Edwards - Current manager of Wolves, discussed for his rotation and system changes.
  • Raymond Verheijen - Dutch fitness coach, mentioned for his views on periodization and player load.
  • Dr. Andrew Huberman - Performance expert, mentioned in relation to Momentous Creapure Creatine.
  • Dr. Stacy Sims - Performance expert, mentioned in relation to Momentous Creapure Creatine.

Organizations & Institutions

  • The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast - The podcast where the discussion took place.
  • Premier League - The football league central to the discussion on squad rotation and tactics.
  • Skill Corner - Data provider used for the graphic on sprinting distances.
  • Financial Times - Publication where John Burn Murdoch wrote about Premier League trends.
  • 538 - Discontinued resource previously used for squad stability analysis.
  • Manchester City - Club discussed in relation to Pep Guardiola's potential departure and Enzo Maresca's candidacy.
  • Chelsea - Club discussed for their high squad rotation and performance.
  • Leicester City - Club where Enzo Maresca previously held a long-term role.
  • Strasbourg - Club owned by the same group as Chelsea, mentioned in the context of player development.
  • Crystal Palace - Club discussed as the most stable Premier League side in terms of squad rotation.
  • Tottenham - Club mentioned for their aggressive defensive style and player runs.
  • Arsenal - Club discussed for player relationships and tactical interplay.
  • Wolves - Club discussed for their low squad stability rating and attempts to find form.
  • Carabao Cup - Competition mentioned in relation to squad rotation and Chelsea's performance.
  • FA Cup - Competition mentioned as a potential avenue for squad rotation.
  • Europa League - Competition mentioned as a potential avenue for squad rotation.
  • Africa Cup of Nations - Tournament mentioned as a reason for player absence.
  • Progressive Insurance - Sponsor of the podcast, mentioned multiple times.
  • Momentous - Supplement brand, mentioned as a sponsor.
  • Bombas - Apparel brand, mentioned as a sponsor.
  • Cosentyx - Medication brand, mentioned in an advertisement.
  • Solidigm - Storage solutions company, mentioned as a sponsor.
  • Odoo - Business software platform, mentioned as a sponsor.

Tools & Software

  • G2 - Review platform where Odoo has high ratings.

Websites & Online Resources

  • acast.com/privacy - URL mentioned for privacy information related to Acast hosting.
  • gab.com/getgab - Website mentioned for exclusive holiday offers on Gab phones and watches.
  • progressive.com - Website mentioned for Progressive Insurance's name your price tool.
  • livemomentous.com - Website mentioned for Momentous supplement subscriptions.
  • bombas.com/audio - Website mentioned for Bombas discounts with a promo code.
  • whatsthestatesofyourstorage.com - Website mentioned for Solidigm storage solutions.
  • odoo.com - Website mentioned for Odoo business software.
  • 1844cosentyx.com - Website mentioned for Cosentyx information.

Other Resources

  • Squad Rotation - Central concept discussed throughout the episode.
  • Squad Stability Rating - Metric used to quantify how consistently players are used.
  • Positional Principles - Tactical approach shared by Pep Guardiola and Enzo Maresca.
  • Club World Cup - Tournament mentioned in relation to Chelsea's lack of pre-season and injury load.
  • AI - Mentioned in relation to data storage demands.
  • Periodization - Fitness concept discussed by Raymond Verheijen.
  • Creapure Creatine - Specific product from Momentous, highlighted for its purity and expert backing.
  • Pillowy Plush Slippers and Warm Merino Wool Socks - Products from Bombas, highlighted for comfort.
  • Psoriatic Arthritis - Condition for which Cosentyx is prescribed.
  • Tuberculosis - Condition to be checked for before starting Cosentyx.
  • Serious Bacterial, Fungal, or Viral Infections - Potential risks associated with Cosentyx.
  • Inflammatory Bowel Disease - Condition that may develop or worsen with Cosentyx use.
  • Serious Allergic Reactions and Severe Eczema-like Skin Reactions - Potential risks associated with Cosentyx.

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