Fantasy Premier League Player Selection Based on Form, Tactics, and Fixtures - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Premier League Player Selection Based on Form, Tactics, and Fixtures

Above Average FPL · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The discussion around Ben White's minutes highlights the risk of investing in players with inconsistent game time, even with favorable fixtures, as rotation can negate potential points.
  • Harry Wilson's consistent shot output and potential for set-piece involvement make him an attractive mid-priced option, but his long-term viability depends on sustained performance and team tactics.
  • Ezequiel "Eze" Tete's strong creative output and goal threat position him as a key differential, but his value is amplified by his team's reliance on him for attacking impetus.
  • The analysis of Arsenal's defense suggests that while they are a strong unit, investing in their backline is currently riskier due to potential rotation and the need for key players to return.
  • The conversation emphasizes that while individual player form is crucial, team-level tactics and fixture difficulty significantly impact a player's potential for points and overall value.
  • The podcast highlights the difficulty of predicting player performance, with unexpected blanks and explosive returns demonstrating the inherent volatility in FPL strategy.
  • The discussion around Liverpool's attacking options, particularly Gakpo and Salah, underscores the importance of understanding player roles and team dynamics to maximize returns.

Deep Dive

The core arguments of this episode revolve around analyzing recent Fantasy Premier League (FPL) gameweek performances and offering strategic advice for upcoming fixtures, with a particular emphasis on player selection and captaincy choices. The hosts dissect individual player performances, team tactics, and fixture difficulty to guide listeners in optimizing their FPL squads.

The second-order implications of this analysis are significant for FPL managers. By providing granular insights into player form, potential transfer targets, and captaincy dilemmas, the podcast directly influences players' team compositions and, consequently, their overall rankings. The discussion on player ownership percentages and the "and then what?" of transfer decisions highlights how seemingly minor tactical choices can compound over time, leading to substantial gains or losses in gameweek scores. For instance, focusing on the "why" behind a player's selection, such as Harry Wilson's high shot output despite being a budget midfielder, allows managers to anticipate potential point spikes and make informed decisions. The emphasis on second-order thinking is evident in the hosts' exploration of transfer chains: if a manager sells player X to afford player Y, what are the downstream effects on their team's overall structure and potential for future moves? This strategic foresight is crucial for navigating the complex landscape of FPL, where a single well-timed transfer or captaincy choice can significantly alter a manager's season trajectory. The hosts' candid discussion of their own FPL struggles and successes provides relatable examples of these implications, demonstrating how even experienced managers grapple with these decisions.

Action Items

  • Audit player minute allocation: For 3-5 key players, track recent minute trends and identify potential rotation risks based on fixture difficulty and team depth.
  • Analyze player form vs. fixture difficulty: For 3-5 mid-priced midfielders, compare recent performance metrics (shots, xG) against upcoming opponent defensive strength to identify optimal transfer targets.
  • Evaluate defensive unit stability: For 2-3 teams with frequently changing backlines, assess the impact of defensive rotation on clean sheet potential over the next 4-6 gameweeks.
  • Track set-piece involvement: For 3-5 attacking midfielders, monitor their involvement in corners and free-kicks to predict potential assist or goal opportunities.
  • Assess captaincy options: For the next 2 gameweeks, compare the xG and xA of 2-3 top captaincy candidates against their historical performance in similar fixture types.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"You'll have to bear with us, we were getting more Bruno points live on the pod haha. Full review as always!"

The hosts acknowledge a potential discrepancy between their live podcasting and the actual points scored by a player named Bruno. This indicates a common FPL (Fantasy Premier League) challenge where real-time analysis might not perfectly align with final results.

"Yeah, no absolutely fine. I think um got a couple of cleans did they get any cleans maybe they didn't get any cleans I got one who's done anything got one clean you just saka on a free hit and harry wilson saka harry wilson foden yeah but everyone's got foden now and it didn't really matter which one you captained pretty much yeah that's about that's about the whole week I'm trying to think of others that did actually smash it"

The speaker is reflecting on the recent game week, noting that only one of them managed to secure a clean sheet. They mention specific players like Saka, Harry Wilson, and Foden, suggesting that Foden was a popular captaincy choice, but the outcome was largely similar regardless of who was captained among those options.

"I know we're halfway through we're not halfway through yet we're not halfway through yet but again I've said this a few weeks in a row now normally it's like this is the part where we or people start to move up because people have blown their chips in the first half of the season and they're in the top 10k and guess what people have blown their chips in the first half of the season and they have another set of chips to come you can't do the same stuff you can't do you can't do the same stuff so yeah join our mini league 1w tch2 got a few weeks to get in and then right into the games"

The speaker is discussing the FPL season's progression, emphasizing that it's not yet halfway through and that players who used their "chips" (special abilities like free hits or wildcards) early might be struggling. They also encourage listeners to join their mini-league.

"I mean both somenyo get him sent off sorry yeah that we just don't we don't but that's that's how frank's setting us up it's not to concede space in the box generally speaking I think the I think the first goal is just a mistake and then we just write that off but generally speaking like we're not conceding many shots from inside the box not that many a lot of the goals are coming from outside the box"

The speaker is analyzing a team's defensive strategy, specifically how they are set up to prevent goals. They mention a player, "Semenyo," and a manager, "Frank," and suggest that the team's defensive approach focuses on denying space in the box, with goals often conceded from outside the penalty area.

"The thing with rice is you're always going to get distracted though aren't you like harry wilson scores and you're like well what would i go spend the money on rice i could have i could have wilson in there like you're always choose choose raya last week choose wilson this week you know what i mean that's how i ended up selling him because you've always like oh this is an opportunity maybe he's got a bit of a niggle i can get someone else get someone else get someone else it just i just get that feeling with him all the time and therefore i'm like yeah should should people be selling"

The speaker is discussing the player Rice and how his perceived value or potential for distraction leads to frequent team changes. They contrast Rice with other players like Harry Wilson and Raya, indicating a struggle with decision-making due to constant opportunities and perceived risks.

"The thing with eka t k is if he looks he looks the one like if you really you were like if i'm free hitting in 18 or 19 first guy on the team sheet is eka t k sure just getting him in i think you've got to ask yourself a number of questions on it do you cap him i'm towards a home to leads when harland's away to forest or away to sunderland because you could yeah sackers obviously home to brighton or villa joint those games but he's he's home towards wolves and leads do you cap him well that if you if you answer is be quite tempted to do that and i could see myself doing it then i think it's definitely worth because you're gonna have to break a few things up to get him in it's not a one mover"

The speaker is highlighting the player Ekitike as a strong FPL option, particularly for those considering a "free hit" strategy in specific game weeks. They suggest that Ekitike is a priority pick, but acknowledge that acquiring him might require significant team restructuring and raise questions about captaincy choices.

Resources

External Resources

People

  • Adam - Host of the Above Average FPL podcast.
  • Baker - Co-host of the Above Average FPL podcast.
  • Bruno Fernandes - Player discussed for his FPL performance and potential captaincy.
  • Harry Wilson - Player discussed for his FPL performance and form.
  • Eze - Player mentioned as a differential option.
  • Trossard - Player mentioned as a differential option.
  • Saka - Player discussed for his FPL performance.
  • Haaland - Player discussed for his FPL performance and captaincy.
  • Foden - Player discussed for his FPL performance.
  • Chalobah - Player discussed in relation to Chelsea defense.
  • Cucurella - Player discussed in relation to Chelsea defense.
  • Sanchez - Player discussed in relation to Chelsea defense.
  • Dan Burn - Player discussed in relation to Newcastle defense.
  • Jimenez - Player discussed in relation to Fulham's attack and penalties.
  • Elliot Anderson - Player discussed as a midfield option.
  • Sangare - Player discussed in relation to Nottingham Forest and AFCON.
  • Smith Rowe - Player discussed as a midfield option.
  • Josh King - Player mentioned as a substitute.
  • Lingard - Player used as a comparison for form and potential decline.
  • Bowen - Player discussed as a West Ham option.
  • Chris Wood - Player used as a comparison for value.
  • Villa - Team discussed in relation to their players' performance.
  • Casemiro - Player who scored a goal.
  • Mount - Player mentioned for an assist.
  • Dyche - Manager discussed in relation to his team's performance.
  • Gabriel - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's defense.
  • Timber - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's defense.
  • Saliba - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's defense.
  • Kante - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's defense.
  • Lewis Kelly - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's defense.
  • White - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's defense.
  • Rocksta - Mentioned in relation to captaincy picks.
  • Grealish - Player mentioned in relation to midfield options.
  • Burnley - Team discussed in relation to Newcastle's fixtures.
  • Leeds - Team discussed in relation to Newcastle's fixtures.
  • Wolves - Team discussed in relation to Newcastle's fixtures.
  • Anthony Gordon - Player discussed in relation to Newcastle's penalties.
  • DCL - Player mentioned as a potential cheap option.
  • Pedro Neto - Player used as a comparison for form and potential decline.
  • Isak - Player discussed in relation to Newcastle's attack.
  • Nuno - Manager discussed in relation to his team's performance.
  • Jota - Player discussed in relation to Liverpool's shirt number and transfer strategy.
  • Saka - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's shirt number and transfer strategy.
  • Mourinho - Manager mentioned in relation to player transfers.
  • Havertz - Player discussed in relation to Chelsea's forward options.
  • Calafiori - Player discussed as a defensive option.
  • Virgil van Dijk - Player discussed in relation to Liverpool's defense and set pieces.
  • Son - Player discussed for his FPL performance and bonus points.
  • Conte - Player discussed in relation to Tottenham's defense and set pieces.
  • Raya - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's defense.
  • Matty Cash - Player discussed in relation to Aston Villa's defense.
  • Pep - Manager discussed in relation to team rotation.
  • Arteta - Manager discussed in relation to team rotation and player availability.
  • Gomez - Player discussed in relation to Liverpool's defense.
  • Bradley - Player discussed in relation to Liverpool's defense.
  • Saibo - Player discussed in relation to Liverpool's defense.
  • Ekitike - Player discussed as a strong FPL option.
  • Palmer - Player discussed in relation to Chelsea's midfield options.
  • Tyler Adams - Player discussed in relation to Bournemouth's injuries.
  • Mason Mount - Player mentioned for an assist.
  • Dallo - Player mentioned in relation to a goal.
  • Sesko - Player mentioned in relation to a goal.
  • Mateo's Cunha - Player discussed as a potential FPL transfer.
  • Gakpo - Player discussed in relation to Liverpool's attack and form.
  • Robo - Player mentioned in relation to Liverpool's defense.
  • O'Reilly - Player discussed for clean sheets and bonus points.
  • Andy Martin - Mentioned in relation to an FPL playoff.
  • Dan Highbell - Mentioned in relation to crypto.

Organizations & Institutions

  • American Express Business Gold - Mentioned for its rewards program.
  • Tito's Handmade Vodka - Mentioned as a sponsor.
  • Patreon - Platform for supporting the show.
  • Spotify - Platform for rating and reviewing the podcast.
  • Apple Podcasts - Platform for rating and reviewing the podcast.
  • Discord - Platform for community interaction.
  • NFL (National Football League) - Mentioned in relation to data analysis.
  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Data source for player grading.
  • Fulham - Team discussed in relation to their attack.
  • Nottingham Forest - Team discussed in relation to their fixtures.
  • Newcastle - Team discussed in relation to their defense and fixtures.
  • Chelsea - Team discussed in relation to their defense and fixtures.
  • Manchester United - Team discussed in relation to their attack and defense.
  • Liverpool - Team discussed in relation to their players and fixtures.
  • Arsenal - Team discussed in relation to their defense and fixtures.
  • Aston Villa - Team discussed in relation to their players and fixtures.
  • Brighton - Team discussed in relation to their fixtures.
  • Bournemouth - Team discussed in relation to their fixtures and injuries.
  • Manchester City - Team discussed in relation to their defense and fixtures.
  • Brentford - Team discussed in relation to their away form.
  • Everton - Team discussed in relation to their fixtures.
  • Burnley - Team discussed in relation to Newcastle's fixtures.
  • West Ham - Team discussed in relation to their fixtures.
  • Wales - Mentioned in relation to a player's international performance.
  • Hubble Social - Website mentioned for crypto discussions.

Websites & Online Resources

  • podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Mentioned for ad choices.
  • americanexpress.com/businessgold - Website for American Express Business Gold card information.
  • blueapron.com - Website for meal kit service.
  • blueapron.com/terms - Website for Blue Apron terms and conditions.
  • twitter.com - Platform for social media interaction.

Other Resources

  • FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The primary subject of the discussion.
  • AFCON - Tournament mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Europa League - Competition mentioned in relation to a player's past performance.
  • High Performance Podcast - Podcast mentioned for its "no dickheads" policy.
  • XG (Expected Goals) - Metric discussed in relation to player and team performance.
  • BPS (Bonus Points System) - Metric discussed in relation to player performance.
  • Green Arrows - Term used to describe a successful gameweek in FPL.
  • Beat Baker - A challenge or competition within the podcast.
  • Matchday Challenge - A segment or competition mentioned.
  • Monday Night Green Arrows - A recurring theme or segment.

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