Premier League Managerial Volatility and Succession Planning Challenges - Episode Hero Image

Premier League Managerial Volatility and Succession Planning Challenges

The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Managerial tenures have drastically shortened, with nearly two-thirds of Premier League head coaches lasting less than two years, reflecting increased volatility driven by tactical issues and off-pitch factors.
  • Caretaker managers primarily serve to "steady the ship" and maintain club stability, rather than implement significant tactical changes, often leveraging internal familiarity to boost player morale.
  • The increasing trend of managers bringing their own coaching staff means clubs struggle to find internal successors, unlike past models where assistants might step up after a manager's departure.
  • Clubs often lack clear succession plans for managerial appointments, leading to rushed decisions or prolonged searches, as seen with Manchester United's extended periods without a permanent manager.
  • Managerial appointments are increasingly complex, requiring alignment on club remit, style, and long-term vision, with sporting directors playing a crucial role in defining these expectations beyond just tactical fit.
  • Project managers, requiring significant time for development, struggle to succeed at big-six clubs due to immense pressure and the expectation of immediate results, contrasting with long-term successful tenures elsewhere.
  • Premier League clubs' dominance in European competitions limits opportunities for managers to gain high-profile wins against top foreign teams, hindering their emergence as candidates for major roles.

Deep Dive

Manchester United's recent managerial upheaval, marked by the departure of Ruben Amorim, highlights a broader trend in modern football: the increasing volatility of managerial tenures and the complex challenges of identifying and appointing the right long-term leader. This situation underscores the critical need for clubs, especially those like Manchester United with a legacy of success, to move beyond short-term fixes and develop robust succession plans.

The rapid turnover of managers, with a significant percentage lasting less than two years in the Premier League, indicates a systemic issue. This volatility is exacerbated by the evolving roles within clubs, such as the rise of sporting directors, which can create friction and misalignment if not managed collaboratively. The "Manchester United DNA" narrative, often invoked to define a consistent playing style, has become a cyclical trap, with successive managers failing to consistently replicate past glories. This suggests that a fundamental re-evaluation of the club's identity and strategic direction is necessary, rather than relying on a perceived inherent quality. The appointment of caretakers, like Darren Fletcher, while offering a short-term stabilization and potential boost in fan morale, also risks perpetuating this cycle if not part of a larger, well-defined strategy. The challenge for clubs is to distinguish between genuine caretaker roles focused on maintaining stability and interim appointments intended to bridge a longer gap, ensuring each serves a clear purpose within a broader strategic framework.

The discussion around caretaker and interim managers reveals a spectrum of approaches, from internal appointments like Fletcher, who can leverage club familiarity and supporter goodwill, to external hires aiming for a temporary solution. The success of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's initial caretaker spell at Manchester United, which led to a permanent appointment, serves as a cautionary tale. While his tenure brought a period of positive results and a "new manager bounce," it ultimately highlighted the difference between short-term enthusiasm and long-term tactical acumen required to compete at the highest level. This experience suggests that clubs must carefully assess whether a temporary manager's success is a genuine indicator of their long-term potential or merely a reaction to a change in atmosphere and a return to basic principles. Furthermore, the increasing trend of managers arriving with full coaching staffs complicates the traditional caretaker role, as it becomes harder for an internal figure to implement significant tactical changes without the backing of a long-term vision. The rarity of truly successful caretaker-to-permanent transitions, particularly at elite clubs, implies that such appointments are often a symptom of a lack of foresight and planning.

The complexity of appointing a permanent manager extends beyond tactical fit to encompass a club's overarching goals, the specific remit assigned to the manager, and the broader organizational structure. For clubs like Manchester United, the pressure for immediate results often clashes with the time required for a "project manager" to implement their vision. While clubs such as Manchester City and Liverpool have demonstrated the success of long-term managerial stability, Chelsea's model highlights the potential pitfalls of constant short-term appointments. The current landscape also presents a challenge in identifying top managerial talent, with many highly-rated coaches already established in the Premier League or in international roles. This scarcity, coupled with the increasing importance of a clear club philosophy and alignment between the board, sporting directors, and managers, suggests that a more strategic, long-term approach to recruitment is essential. The example of Brighton's swift appointment of Roberto De Zerbi after Graham Potter's departure illustrates the benefit of proactive planning and a clear understanding of desired managerial profiles. Ultimately, the success of any managerial appointment hinges on a club's clarity of purpose and its ability to foster an environment where a chosen manager can thrive, rather than simply react to immediate pressures.

Action Items

  • Audit managerial appointment process: Define 3-5 criteria for evaluating candidates (e.g., tactical fit, player development, media management) to ensure alignment with club objectives.
  • Create a standardized framework for evaluating caretaker and interim managers: Outline 3 key responsibilities (e.g., steady the ship, maintain team morale, implement minimal tactical adjustments) to clarify roles and expectations.
  • Develop a succession plan for key coaching roles: Identify 2-3 potential internal candidates for future caretaker or interim positions to ensure continuity and preparedness.
  • Analyze 5-10 recent managerial appointments across top leagues: Compare the stated club objectives with the chosen manager's profile to identify patterns of successful alignment or misalignment.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"I mean, as we record this, Manchester United are only two points outside the top four. So I think a lot of the time when a club is getting in a caretaker manager, it's like, well, just steady the ship. It doesn't really matter. Hold the fort and we'll get someone else in eventually. But actually, every point counts for Manchester United at the moment."

Michael Cox highlights the critical importance of every point for Manchester United, even when under a caretaker manager. This emphasizes that the short-term goal of stabilizing the team is intertwined with the immediate need to secure league position, as the team is close to a Champions League qualification spot.

"I do think, obviously, the main thing that was the discussion point with Amorim was the system. I do think it is quite funny, ironic, whatever you want to say, that people were mainly calling for him to change the system for quite a long time, or just the idea that he could potentially have changed the system. And he said repeatedly that he was dedicated to it and there's no situation where he is going to change it, and that was maybe causing a bit of tension."

Michael Cox points out the irony surrounding Ruben Amorim's situation, where fans and pundits had long called for a system change. Cox notes that Amorim's initial insistence on sticking to his system, despite pressure, created tension, making his eventual shift in approach, even if with mixed success, a notable point.

"I'd look at, there's a really good report from CIES, a football research organization from April of this year, or last year, sorry, now in 2026. So from April 2025, they worked out that in the Premier League, 45% of head coaches are in charge for less than a year, 65%, so about two-thirds, for less than two years. You do get some that are in charge for, you know, you get the Arteta, the Guardiola kind of clock puns. You do get a few at big clubs that have the role longevity, but you know, it's become increasingly so volatile now."

Mark Carey uses data from a CIES report to illustrate the increasing volatility of managerial tenures in the Premier League. Carey explains that a significant majority of head coaches are now in charge for less than two years, indicating a trend towards shorter-term appointments, contrasting with a few long-standing figures at top clubs.

"The other guys can correct me if I'm wrong there, but that's my understanding or interpretation of it. Well, I mean, I would, I don't necessarily disagree that's what generally happens. I would say interim almost always is till the end of the season, right? Or like a fixed, almost like a fixed term that is also short term, whereas caretaker is like a couple of weeks."

Liam Tharme distinguishes between caretaker and interim managers, offering his interpretation of their roles. Tharme suggests that while both are short-term, an interim manager typically serves until the end of the season with a fixed term, whereas a caretaker is usually appointed for a much shorter period, like a few weeks.

"I think it's quite difficult for a caretaker to really do anything and have much impact, but then I suppose by definition, they're not there to have a truly big impact. They're just there to, as I say, come back to steady the ship. If you appoint someone like Darren Fletcher, they tend to get the supporters on board. And I know that's a bit of a basic thing to say, but I do increasingly think managers like Maresca and Amorim are slightly struggling to connect with the club."

Mark Carey discusses the limited impact a caretaker manager typically has, stating their primary role is to "steady the ship." Carey believes that appointing someone like Darren Fletcher, who connects with supporters, can be beneficial, especially when compared to managers like Maresca and Amorim who may struggle to build rapport with the club.

"I think there's also something that's changed, which is that managers tend to come with their assistants and a coaching team. And you have five or six there who when the manager gets sacked, almost what, they all leave. And it used to be not uncommon for a manager to leave the assistant to be more the club man and be in a position to take over because that was the plan."

Michael Bailey identifies a significant change in modern football management: the reliance on cohesive coaching teams. Bailey explains that when a manager is sacked, their entire staff often departs, unlike in the past when an assistant might have been a club loyalist positioned to take over, suggesting this shift complicates succession planning.

"I think there's also something that's changed, which is that managers tend to come with their assistants and a coaching team. And you have five or six there who when the manager gets sacked, almost what, they all leave. And it used to be not uncommon for a manager to leave the assistant to be more the club man and be in a position to take over because that was the plan."

Michael Bailey identifies a significant change in modern football management: the reliance on cohesive coaching teams. Bailey explains that when a manager is sacked, their entire staff often departs, unlike in the past when an assistant might have been a club loyalist positioned to take over, suggesting this shift complicates succession planning.

"I mean, we've spoken about some of this already, but understanding the club that might be quite important to to some clubs, whether it's in the short term or the long term. Is there more of a focus on yes, style, maybe that is formation or a bit of a change in formation as we obviously saw with Ruben Amorim. Is it someone who's a maybe a proven winner? You think about Tottenham's in seasons gone by moving more towards a Jose Mourinho, Antonio Conte type to make sure that they kind of win now."

Mark Carey emphasizes the importance of understanding a club's specific needs when appointing a manager. Carey suggests that clubs must clarify their priorities, whether it's a particular style of play, a proven winning mentality exemplified by managers like Mourinho or Conte, or other factors, to ensure the right fit.

"I think there's also something that's changed, which is that managers tend to come with their assistants and a coaching team. And you have five or six there who when the manager gets sacked, almost what, they all leave. And it used to be not uncommon for a manager to leave the assistant to be more the club man and be in a position to take over because that was the plan."

Michael Bailey identifies a significant change in modern football management: the reliance on cohesive coaching teams. Bailey explains that when a manager is sacked, their entire staff often departs, unlike in the past when an assistant might have been a club loyalist positioned to take over, suggesting this shift complicates succession planning.

"I think there's also something that's changed, which is that managers tend to come with their assistants

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast" - Mentioned as the source of discussion regarding managerial appointments and club strategy.

Articles & Papers

  • "CIS Football Research Organization report" (April 2025) - Referenced for statistics on managerial tenure length in the Premier League.

People

  • Ruben Amorim - Former manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his dismissal and tactical approach.
  • Darren Fletcher - Caretaker manager appointed by Manchester United, discussed for his role and potential impact.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • Jose Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in contrast to Solskjaer's approach.
  • Gareth Southgate - England manager, cited as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup-winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Argentina manager, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the Copa America and World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Former Argentina player and coach, quoted regarding Scaloni's initial qualifications.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his impact on playing style.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, cited as having the worst record for an interim manager in the Premier League.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned in relation to Terry Connor's interim role.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his successful tenure and the logic behind his appointment.
  • **Jose

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