Premier League Managerial Churn Hinders Club Strategic Stability - Episode Hero Image

Premier League Managerial Churn Hinders Club Strategic Stability

The Athletic FC Podcast · · Listen to Original Episode →
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TL;DR

  • Managerial tenures are drastically shortening, with 45% of Premier League head coaches lasting less than a year, doubling the rate from the early 2000s, indicating increased volatility driven by tactical issues and off-pitch dynamics.
  • Caretaker managers primarily serve to "steady the ship" and maintain club stability, often leveraging internal familiarity to boost morale rather than implementing significant tactical changes.
  • Clubs increasingly struggle to identify and appoint permanent managers due to a lack of clear long-term vision and a shortage of available top-tier coaching talent, leading to prolonged periods of underperformance.
  • The trend of managers bringing extensive coaching teams means clubs are less likely to have internal successors, unlike historical examples like Zidane at Real Madrid, complicating caretaker transitions.
  • Manchester United's prolonged post-Ferguson era demonstrates a persistent struggle to define and consistently execute a club identity, cycling through managers without finding a stable strategic direction.
  • The Premier League's dominance in European competitions may inadvertently limit the emergence of new managerial talent, as successful coaches are often already established within top English clubs.

Deep Dive

The rapid churn of football managers, particularly at elite clubs like Manchester United, highlights a systemic failure to plan for long-term stability and strategic alignment. This trend, evidenced by the increasing frequency of sackings and the short tenures of both caretaker and interim managers, suggests a reactive approach that prioritizes immediate results over sustainable development. The consequence is a perpetual cycle of disruption, hindering a club's ability to establish a consistent identity or achieve sustained success.

The current landscape of football management is characterized by shorter managerial tenures, a trend exacerbated by increased club wealth, formalized sporting director roles, and a media environment that amplifies scrutiny. Data indicates that a significant percentage of Premier League managers last less than two years, a stark contrast to earlier eras. This volatility means that caretaker and interim appointments, once rare, are now frequent necessities for clubs like Manchester United. The primary remit for these temporary figures is to "steady the ship," which often involves maintaining a semblance of stability and acting as an ambassador for the club, rather than implementing significant tactical changes. This role is further complicated by the fact that these individuals rarely have sufficient time to genuinely impact the team's playing style or long-term trajectory, creating a disconnect between the perceived need for change and the practical limitations of their positions.

The reliance on internal candidates for caretaker roles, such as Darren Fletcher at Manchester United, aims to leverage existing club knowledge and foster supporter goodwill. However, this approach carries risks. It can perpetuate a club's perceived "DNA" or identity, potentially trapping them in a cycle of underachievement if that identity is no longer relevant or effective. This is particularly true for clubs like Manchester United, who have struggled to redefine themselves post-Sir Alex Ferguson. While these caretakers can provide a short-term boost and opportunities for young players, they are not equipped to deliver the sustained tactical innovation required for elite success. The rise of dedicated coaching teams accompanying managers, coupled with the increasing complexity of modern football, has also made it more challenging for internal caretakers to step up effectively compared to historical examples.

The broader issue for clubs at the highest level is the lack of a clear succession plan for permanent managerial appointments. The ideal scenario involves a club defining its objectives and philosophy first, then identifying a manager who aligns with those goals, rather than the other way around. This necessitates a strategic approach that considers factors beyond immediate tactical fit, including the manager's ability to develop youth, manage media relations, and potentially overachieve with available resources. The current market, however, is strained, with many top coaches already established at Premier League clubs or tied to international jobs, making it difficult for clubs like Manchester United to identify suitable long-term candidates. This scarcity, combined with the pressure for immediate results at big clubs, often leads to a focus on managers with Premier League experience, a criterion that may not always yield the most successful appointments. Ultimately, the continuous struggle to find and appoint the right manager underscores a systemic weakness in strategic planning, leading to instability and hindering long-term sporting success.

Action Items

  • Audit managerial appointment process: Define 5 criteria for evaluating candidates (e.g., tactical fit, player development, media management) to ensure long-term alignment.
  • Create succession plan framework: Identify 3-5 potential internal candidates for caretaker roles and outline their development path.
  • Measure interim manager impact: Track key performance indicators (e.g., points per game, tactical adherence) for 2-3 interim appointments to evaluate effectiveness.
  • Analyze club philosophy alignment: For 1-2 clubs, document the stated philosophy and compare it against recent managerial appointments and player recruitment.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"I mean, as we record this, Manchester United are only two points outside the top four. So I think a lot of the time when a club is getting in a caretaker manager, it's like, well, just steady the ship, it doesn't really matter, hold the fort and we'll get someone else in eventually. But actually, every point counts for Manchester United at the moment."

Michael Bailey highlights that even in a caretaker manager situation, points are crucial for Manchester United, emphasizing that the interim period is significant for the club's standing. This suggests that the role of a caretaker is not merely to maintain the status quo but to actively contribute to the team's immediate objectives.

"And I'd look at, there's a really good report from CIES, a football research organization from April of this year, or last year, sorry, now in 2026. So from April 2025, they worked out that in the Premier League, 45% of head coaches in charge for less than a year, 65%, so about two-thirds, for less than two years. You do get some that are in charge for, you know, you get the Arteta, Guardiola kind of clock puns. You do get a few at big clubs that have the longevity, but you know, it's become increasingly so volatile now."

Liam Tharme points out the increasing volatility in managerial tenures, citing a report that shows a significant percentage of Premier League head coaches lasting less than two years. This indicates a trend towards shorter managerial spells, making long-term stability a rarity, even at major clubs.

"The other guys can correct me if I'm wrong there, but that's my understanding or interpretation of it. Well, I mean, I would, I don't necessarily disagree that's what generally happens. I would say interim almost always is till the end of the season, right? Or like a fixed, almost like a fixed term that is also short term, whereas caretaker is like a couple of weeks."

Mark Carey and Liam Tharme differentiate between caretaker and interim managers, with Carey suggesting caretakers are typically internal hires for a very short term, while Tharme elaborates that interims usually serve until the end of the season or a fixed short term. This distinction clarifies the different roles and expected durations of these temporary managerial positions.

"And it does, to your point before, Michael, as well, about it sounds a bit cliché, but the steadying of the ship does feel kind of the remit for the caretaker manager. This is separate from the interim, but it feels to me like fairly ambassadorial to kind of make sure that you are just doing the right thing for the club in the short term until the right decision is made, whatever that may be."

Mark Carey explains that the primary role of a caretaker manager is to "steady the ship" and act in an ambassadorial capacity for the club's short-term interests. Carey emphasizes that this role is distinct from an interim manager and focuses on ensuring the club's well-being until a permanent decision is made.

"I do love it when these things happen because there's so many preconceptions around it as opposed. So, so for me, an interim manager, you're effectively saying we're only going to have you for a finite period. We don't want you long term. That's one of the things you're basically saying because and in a way, the club almost has no excuse to then not get their next or fewer excuses not to get their next permanent manager right because they're giving themselves a room to get the appointment right, which I, I suppose does put big question marks over over say Ruben Amorim for example."

The speaker discusses how the appointment of an interim manager effectively signals that the club is not looking for a long-term solution, thereby reducing excuses for not making the correct permanent managerial choice. This perspective suggests that interims provide a buffer, allowing clubs more time and less pressure to find their ideal long-term manager.

"I think in terms of like caretakers being a waste of time, I do think, I mean, you made the point, Michael, that it is kind of clever or wise to to do so if they don't have the process lined up, which I agree with Liam, they, they should have at that sort of level. They should have that process lined up and have sort of succession, you know, at that whatever level. And I do think much like players almost, it's better to to wait for a manager in the summer if it's the the manager that you want and not rush into something."

The speaker agrees with Liam that clubs at a high level should have a succession plan for managers, and that it is wiser to wait for the desired manager, even if it means waiting until the summer, rather than rushing into a suboptimal appointment. This highlights the importance of strategic planning in managerial recruitment, comparing it to player acquisition strategies.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast" - Mentioned as the source of discussion regarding managerial appointments and club strategy.

Articles & Papers

  • "long read" - Mentioned as a detailed piece that provided context for Ruben Amorim's departure.
  • "report from CIES" - Discussed as a source for data on managerial tenure lengths in the Premier League.
  • "great piece" - Referenced by Michael as a written analysis on the scarcity of top coaches.

People

  • Ruben Amorim - Former manager of Manchester United, discussed in relation to his dismissal and tactical approach.
  • Michael Bailey - Host of The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast.
  • Liam Tharme - Contributor to The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast.
  • Mark Kerry - Contributor to The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast.
  • Erik ten Hag - Former manager of Manchester United, discussed in the context of managerial tenures and club decisions.
  • Darren Fletcher - Appointed caretaker manager of Manchester United, discussed for his role and potential impact.
  • Carrick - Former caretaker manager at Manchester United.
  • Ralf Rangnick - Former interim manager at Manchester United.
  • Moresca - Mentioned in comparison to Darren Fletcher regarding connecting with a club.
  • Alex Ferguson - Former manager of Manchester United, mentioned in relation to Darren Fletcher seeking his blessing.
  • Rooney - Mentioned as a former Manchester United player who has had a coaching role.
  • Lampard - Mentioned as a former caretaker manager at Chelsea.
  • Yungberg - Mentioned as a former caretaker manager at Arsenal.
  • Sherwood - Mentioned as a former caretaker manager at Tottenham.
  • Harry Kane - Mentioned in relation to Tim Sherwood giving him a debut.
  • Ole Gunnar Solskjær - Former caretaker and permanent manager of Manchester United, discussed for his tenure and success.
  • Bruno Fernandes - Player around whom Ole Gunnar Solskjær built the Manchester United side.
  • Klopp - Manager at Liverpool, mentioned in the context of long managerial tenures.
  • Guardiola - Manager at Manchester City, mentioned in the context of long managerial tenures.
  • Mourinho - Former manager of Manchester United and Chelsea, discussed in relation to atmosphere and playing style.
  • Gareth Southgate - Manager of England, discussed as a successful caretaker in international football.
  • Sam Allardyce - Former manager of England, mentioned as the predecessor to Gareth Southgate.
  • Mario Zagallo - Brazilian World Cup winning coach, mentioned as a successful caretaker.
  • Lionel Scaloni - Manager of Argentina, discussed as a successful caretaker who won the World Cup.
  • Diego Maradona - Mentioned for his quote regarding Lionel Scaloni's qualifications.
  • Sampaoli - Former manager of Argentina, mentioned as the predecessor to Lionel Scaloni.
  • Zidane - Mentioned for taking over at Real Madrid after Benitez.
  • Benitez - Mentioned as the predecessor to Zidane at Real Madrid.
  • Terry Connor - Former interim manager at Wolves, discussed for his record.
  • Mick McCarthy - Former manager at Wolves, mentioned as the predecessor to Terry Connor.
  • Olé Gunnar Solskjær - Mentioned again in the context of his success as caretaker manager.
  • Braga - Mentioned in relation to Manchester United's win against them in the Champions League.
  • Roy Keane - Mentioned for his perspective on second place being a failure.
  • Thomas Tuchel - Mentioned as a potential manager for Manchester United.
  • Julian Nagelsmann - Mentioned as a manager currently in an international job.
  • Carlo Ancelotti - Mentioned as a manager currently in an international job.
  • Pochettino - Mentioned as a manager currently in an international job.
  • Ousmane Edouard - Player at Lens, mentioned for scoring goals.
  • Roberto De Zerbi - Manager at Brighton, mentioned for his appointment after Potter left.
  • Potter - Manager at Brighton, mentioned for leaving for the Chelsea job.
  • Marcelino - Manager at Villarreal, discussed for his success and tactical approach.
  • Oliver Glasner - Manager at Crystal Palace, discussed for his specific style and suitability for Manchester United.
  • Thomas Frank - Manager, mentioned in relation to not fitting at Tottenham.
  • Arsène Wenger - Former manager of Arsenal, mentioned in the context of Arsenal's post-Wenger identity.
  • Arteta - Manager of Arsenal, mentioned in the context of Arsenal's identity.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Manchester United Football Club - Primary subject of discussion regarding managerial appointments and strategy.
  • Premier League - The top professional football league in England, discussed in relation to managerial tenures and performance.
  • Chelsea - Football club, mentioned in the context of managerial changes and philosophy.
  • Arsenal - Football club, discussed in relation to post-Arsène Wenger identity.
  • Tottenham - Football club, mentioned in relation to managerial appointments and challenging for the league.
  • Liverpool - Football club, mentioned in the context of long managerial tenures.
  • Manchester City - Football club, mentioned in the context of long managerial tenures.
  • Everton - Football club, mentioned in relation to playing against a 10-man team.
  • Wolves - Football club, mentioned in relation to playing against them.
  • Burnley - Football club, mentioned in relation to playing against them.
  • Brighton - Football club, mentioned in relation to appointing Roberto De Zerbi.
  • Lyon - Football club, mentioned in relation to a former interim coach.
  • Lens - Football club, mentioned for their performance in Ligue 1.
  • PSG - Football club, mentioned in relation to Lens' performance.
  • Villarreal - Football club, discussed for their performance in La Liga.
  • Real Madrid - Football club, mentioned in relation to their performance in La Liga.
  • Barcelona - Football club, mentioned in relation to their performance in La Liga.
  • Crystal Palace - Football club, discussed in relation to Oliver Glasner's coaching style.
  • Frankfurt - Football club, mentioned in relation to Oliver Glasner's Europa League win.
  • Rangers - Football club, mentioned in relation to the Europa League final.
  • England - National football team, discussed in relation to caretaker managers.
  • Argentina - National football team, discussed in relation to caretaker managers.
  • The Athletic - Media organization, mentioned as the source of the podcast and articles.
  • CIES - Football research organization, mentioned for a report on managerial tenures.
  • Ligue 1 - The top professional football league in France.
  • La Liga - The top professional football league in Spain.
  • Europa League - European club football competition.
  • Champions League - European club football competition.
  • Conference League - European club football competition.

Websites & Online Resources

  • blue apron.com - Mentioned for meal kit offerings and promotions.
  • pura.com - Mentioned for smart home fragrance diffusers and subscription offers.
  • theathletic.com/tacticspod - Mentioned as the email address for listener feedback.
  • euromonitor.com - Mentioned for global market intelligence.
  • experian.com - Mentioned for managing finances and tracking spending.
  • workday.com - Mentioned as an AI platform for business management.

Other Resources

  • Caretaker Manager - Discussed as a short-term coaching role within a club.
  • Interim Manager - Discussed as a short-term coaching role, potentially external.
  • Project Manager (in football) - Discussed as a manager with a long-term vision, needing time.
  • Managerial Tenures - Discussed in relation to their decreasing length in modern football.
  • Succession Plan (for managers) - Discussed as a crucial element for clubs to have in place.
  • New Manager Bounce - Discussed as a phenomenon that can occur when a new manager is appointed.
  • Player Quality - Discussed as a factor that can carry a team through for a period.
  • Tactical Acumen - Discussed as a necessary skill for managers in the long term.
  • AI Game - Mentioned in relation to Workday's platform.
  • AI Platform - Mentioned in relation to Workday.
  • Home Fragrance - Discussed in relation to Pura's smart diffusers.
  • Subscription Management - Discussed in relation to Experian's services.
  • Financial Management - Discussed in relation to Experian's services.
  • Data and Scouting - Discussed as factors that make it easier for managers to move between clubs.
  • Sporting Director - Discussed as a role crucial for defining club strategy and manager fit.
  • Squad Building - Discussed as a factor in managerial appointments.
  • Media Management - Discussed as a factor in managerial appointments.
  • Youth Development - Discussed as a potential focus for managerial appointments.
  • Style of Play - Discussed as a key consideration for managerial fit.
  • Proven Winner - Discussed as a characteristic sought in managers.
  • Giant Killer - Discussed as a potential characteristic of a manager.
  • Ambassadorial Role - Discussed in relation to media management and club representation.
  • European Competition - Discussed in relation to managerial performance and opportunities.
  • Contract Length - Mentioned as a practical logistical reason for manager availability.
  • Loan Signing - Used as an analogy for temporary managerial appointments.
  • Assistant Coaches/Coaching Teams - Discussed in relation to how they often leave with the manager.
  • Club DNA - Discussed as a concept Manchester United has struggled to consistently find.
  • Back Four/Back Two - Tactical formations discussed in relation to team strategy.
  • 3-4-3 Formation - Tactical formation discussed in relation to Lens' playing style.
  • 4-4-2 Formation - Tactical formation discussed in relation to Marcelino's approach.
  • Head Coach Role - Discussed in relation to managerial authority.
  • Managerial Appointment Process - Discussed in relation to how clubs select permanent managers.
  • Market Intelligence - Discussed in relation to EuroMonitor International.
  • Consumer Behavior - Discussed in relation to EuroMonitor International.
  • Consumer Goods Advertisements - Excluded from the resource list.
  • Promo Codes - Excluded from the resource list.
  • Affiliate Links - Excluded from the resource list.
  • Sponsored Content - Excluded from the resource list.
  • Self-Promotional Content - Excluded from the resource list.
  • Commercial References - Excluded from the resource list.

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