NFL Playoff Betting Trends: Statistical Inefficiencies and Matchup Analysis - Episode Hero Image

NFL Playoff Betting Trends: Statistical Inefficiencies and Matchup Analysis

The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Teams entering the playoffs on significant winning streaks are statistically prone to underperforming against the spread, with teams winning at least 75% of their last six games covering at only a 44% rate.
  • Home teams that missed the playoffs the previous year are significantly more likely to cover the spread when hosting a playoff team that qualified the year prior, holding a 69% cover rate.
  • In playoff games with totals of 41 or higher and played outdoors in non-division matchups, the under has hit at an 80% rate over the last decade, indicating a tendency for lower scoring.
  • Teams with a substantial point differential advantage (over 100 points) over their opponent are surprisingly poor against the spread on the road, covering only 33% of the time.
  • Quarterbacks making their playoff debut against an experienced playoff quarterback have historically struggled, covering the spread at a 34% rate.
  • Home teams coming off a loss are statistically favored to stay under the total in subsequent games, hitting the under at a 100% rate in recent seasons.
  • The trend of teams with a negative EPA per play on deep passes historically struggling against opponents strong in that area suggests a significant matchup disadvantage.

Deep Dive

The NFL Wild Card Weekend presents a slate of matchups where historical trends and current performance metrics clash, creating opportunities for bettors to exploit market inefficiencies. While many playoff teams are established contenders, the variance in team performance, particularly concerning coaching advantages and situational trends, suggests that a deeper analytical approach beyond simple win-loss records is crucial for identifying value. This analysis will focus on identifying key betting narratives and their underlying statistical support across the weekend's games.

The Rams at Panthers game is framed as a significant mismatch, with the Rams' elite offensive and defensive DVOA ratings contrasting sharply with the Panthers' bottom-tier performance. Despite the Panthers' home-field advantage as a larger underdog, historical data indicates that road playoff favorites, especially those with a substantial point differential advantage like the Rams, tend to cover generously. However, a counter-trend suggests that teams who lost to their playoff opponent earlier in the season are more likely to cover, a factor that could mitigate the Rams' expected dominance. Ultimately, the analysis leans towards the Rams covering, driven by their overwhelming statistical superiority and the Panthers' consistent struggles against quality opponents.

In the Packers at Bears matchup, the betting market appears to be undervaluing the Bears, despite concerns about their defense's ability to contain Green Bay's explosive offense. While the Packers' historical dominance over the Bears is a narrative, the current team compositions and recent performance trends suggest a closer contest. The analysis points to Chicago's defensive strengths aligning with Green Bay's offensive weaknesses, particularly on first down and against play-action. Furthermore, the expected wintery conditions and the historical tendency for early-game unders in such matchups suggest a low-scoring affair, with the Bears' second-half offensive surge potentially creating a dynamic where an early under bet converts.

The Bills at Jaguars game is highlighted as a potential AFC kingmaker, with Jacksonville entering the playoffs on a significant winning streak, contrasting with Buffalo's inconsistent performance. Despite the Jaguars' strong recent form, historical trends suggest that teams with extended winning streaks often underperform against the spread in the playoffs due to inflated expectations. However, the analysis favors Jacksonville, particularly in the first half, citing the Bills' struggles against the spread early in games and the Jaguars' coaching advantages. The outright winner is less certain, but the first-half advantage for Jacksonville is identified as a key betting opportunity.

The 49ers at Eagles game is characterized by Philadelphia's favorable situation, with key injuries plaguing San Francisco. The Eagles' strong home record in the playoffs and their defensive prowess against Shanahan's offensive scheme are significant factors. While the point spread of four and a half points is considered fair, the analysis leans towards the under due to the Eagles' tendency for lower-scoring games since their bye week and historical trends favoring unders in outdoor, non-division games with higher totals. The prediction is for a gritty, low-scoring affair, potentially favoring the Eagles to win but with the under being the primary betting focus.

The Chargers at Patriots game is viewed as a matchup between two average teams, with the Patriots' strength of schedule being a significant factor in their perceived performance. The analysis suggests that both teams have weaknesses that could be exploited, but the Chargers' strong defense on the road and the Patriots' struggles to generate consistent offense, particularly against good defenses, point towards a lower-scoring game. The Chargers are favored to cover the spread, aligning with a trend of home playoff teams that missed the playoffs the previous year underperforming. The correlation between a Chargers cover and an under in this game is also noted as a potential betting angle.

Finally, the episode touches on Super Bowl MVP futures and a look-ahead bet for Seahawks versus Packers. The MVP analysis focuses on identifying players whose odds of winning MVP are disproportionately lower than their team's implied Super Bowl win probability. The look-ahead bet on the Seahawks as significant favorites against the Packers is based on a perceived mispricing of the line, with Seattle's power rating suggesting a much larger spread.

Action Items

  • Audit coaching carousel: Identify 3-5 top available jobs and rank them by ownership stability and roster talent.
  • Analyze team strength disconnect: For 3-5 teams, calculate correlation between win-loss record and power ranking score.
  • Measure playoff debut QB performance: Track success rate for 3-5 quarterbacks making their first playoff start against experienced opponents.
  • Evaluate defensive scheme effectiveness: For 3-5 teams, analyze pressure rate and sack rate against offenses with strong offensive line play.
  • Track first-half performance variance: For 3-5 teams, measure the ATS difference between first-half and second-half performance.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"Honestly, I think these are among the worst jobs and franchises in football for the most part. Not all of them, but there are a lot of these that are like, 'Man, this is the... I guess there are only 32 of these jobs, so I'll take the job available to me.' And that's kind of what this group mostly feels like to me."

Brandon Anderson expresses a generally negative outlook on the available NFL coaching positions, characterizing most of them as undesirable due to factors like poor ownership and a history of team struggles. He suggests that for many candidates, the primary appeal is simply the availability of one of the limited 32 head coaching roles.

"To me, it's Baltimore by a mile. Baltimore, one of the most talented rosters in football. I had them way ahead of the field coming into the season. And obviously, you have Lamar Jackson. Matt, you and I both are a little bit lower than consensus on Lamar Jackson, but you want to have Lamar Jackson, not, I don't know, Tua or a rookie or second-year quarterback or Stetson Bennett or Penix and Cousins. You want Lamar Jackson versus that."

Anderson identifies Baltimore as the most appealing coaching job among those available. He highlights their talented roster and the presence of Lamar Jackson as key advantages, even while acknowledging a personal view that differs from the general consensus on Jackson's talent.

"The Panthers are not a good playoff team. They are by far the worst playoff team in the field. They're 24th in DVOA. That's bottom 10. I don't know what their strength is. Like, I literally don't know how to tell you what the strength of the Panthers would be. If I had to pick one, if you flip their one score games, they're four and 13 on the season, the worst team in the NFL."

Anderson strongly criticizes the Carolina Panthers' qualification for the playoffs, labeling them the weakest team in the field. He points to their low DVOA ranking and suggests they lack any discernible strengths, further emphasizing their poor performance by noting their record when their close games are adjusted.

"I still just can't make any sense of this line. I think the market is totally outdated on the Packers right now and we'll get back to that on a look ahead at the end as well. But defense especially, I think the market's view of the Packers' defense is not cut up to how bad they've become. Green Bay was number nine by DVOA first nine weeks of the season, aka the first half of the season. They're 24th since then and they're getting worse over the last six games because Mike Parsons is out."

Anderson expresses confusion regarding the betting line for the Packers vs. Bears game, believing the market is not accurately reflecting the Packers' current performance, particularly their defense. He notes a significant drop in their defensive DVOA ranking from the first half of the season to the second, attributing some of this decline to injuries.

"The Bills are not hot at all. The Bills are bottom 10 defense for the season. They don't have any receivers. Josh Allen's foot is injured and they, they come in despite all that, you still have Josh Allen and you still have the experience factor. But there's no question about it. Jacksonville since the middle of the season has been by quite a bit actually better than the Bills."

Anderson argues that the Buffalo Bills are not playing well, citing their poor defensive ranking, lack of receivers, and Josh Allen's injury as significant concerns. He contrasts this with the Jacksonville Jaguars, whom he believes have been the superior team since mid-season.

"The Chargers are 17th in DVOA on the season. That's average. So are the Patriots. They're 15th. I think these are two perfectly average teams. And when you factor in schedule strength, Patriots 32nd schedule offense and 32nd on defense. That is the softest schedule in the league."

Anderson assesses both the Chargers and Patriots as average teams based on their DVOA rankings. He specifically points out the Patriots' exceptionally weak strength of schedule, suggesting their record may not accurately reflect their true capabilities.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Ultimate Combo" - Mentioned in relation to a betting strategy.

Articles & Papers

  • "NFL Best Bets | Wild Card Weekend" (Action Network Podcast) - Discussed as the primary topic of the episode.
  • "NFL Player Prop Projections" - Mentioned as a resource powered by Sean Kerner.
  • "Article on Super Bowl MVP Bets" (Action Network) - Mentioned as a place to read Brandon's analysis on MVP bets.

People

  • Brandon Anderson - Futures prognosticator and co-host of the podcast.
  • Matt Moore - Host of the podcast.
  • Evan Abrams - Mentioned as the regular host of the podcast.
  • Stucky - Mentioned as an expert whose prop bets trigger alerts.
  • If Kerner - Mentioned as an expert whose prop bets trigger alerts.
  • Sean Kerner - Mentioned as the genius behind NFL player prop projections.
  • Chris Raybon - Mentioned as someone whose picks are available.
  • Mike McDaniel - Mentioned in relation to coaching jobs and as a potential offensive coordinator.
  • John Harbaugh - Mentioned as a top coaching prospect and a desirable hire.
  • Raheem Morris - Mentioned as a retread coach option.
  • Matt Nagy - Mentioned as a retread coach option and in relation to the Chiefs' offense.
  • Sean McVay - Mentioned as a retread coach option.
  • Stefanski - Mentioned as an example of a coach who plays one style.
  • McCarthy - Mentioned as a retread coach option.
  • Spags - Mentioned as a brilliant defensive coordinator.
  • Alonzo Mourning - Mentioned in relation to an autographed basketball.
  • Brian Windhorst - Mentioned in relation to potential coaching job openings.
  • Geoff Schwartz - Mentioned in relation to potential coaching job openings.
  • Josh Allen - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' performance and playoff record.
  • Patrick Mahomes - Mentioned in relation to ACL surgery and playoff chances.
  • Drake Maye - Mentioned in relation to MVP odds and potential playoff debut.
  • Caleb Williams - Mentioned in relation to playoff debut and potential impact on the Bears' season.
  • Cooper Kupp - Mentioned as a good wide receiver one.
  • Bryce Young - Mentioned in relation to the Panthers' playoff appearance and performance.
  • Rex Grossman - Mentioned in relation to the Bears' Super Bowl appearance.
  • Favre - Mentioned in relation to the Packers-Bears rivalry.
  • Rodgers - Mentioned in relation to the Packers-Bears rivalry and a specific touchdown celebration.
  • Jordan Love - Mentioned in relation to the Packers-Bears rivalry and his performance.
  • Ben Johnson - Mentioned in relation to the Bears' offense and the Packers' struggles against his teams.
  • Lamar Jackson - Mentioned in relation to the Ravens' quarterback situation.
  • Henry - Mentioned in relation to Derrick Henry and the Ravens game.
  • ETN - Mentioned in relation to Travis Etienne and the Jaguars-Bills game.
  • Jared Goff - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Rodgers - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Tua - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Geno Smith - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Flacco - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Fields - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Dalton - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Sam Howell - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Easton Stick - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Chad Henne - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' road wins.
  • Liam Cohen - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars' offense and coaching advantages.
  • McDermott - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' defense.
  • Campenelli - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars' defense.
  • Joe Burrow - Mentioned in relation to the Bengals' playoff run.
  • Lane Johnson - Mentioned as being back for the Eagles.
  • Brock Purdy - Mentioned as being suddenly hurt.
  • Trent Williams - Mentioned as still being hurt.
  • Fyer Sol - Mentioned as potentially being out.
  • Jalen Hurts - Mentioned in relation to his playoff record at home and the Eagles' offense.
  • Vic Fangio - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' defense.
  • George Kittle - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' defense.
  • T.J. Hockenson - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' defense.
  • Jesse Minter - Mentioned as a potential head coach and in relation to his defense.
  • Justin Herbert - Mentioned in relation to the Chargers' injuries and performance.
  • O'Maryan Hamption - Mentioned in relation to potential receptions and injury status.
  • Derrick Henry - Mentioned in relation to the Ravens game.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Monday Sidekick - Mentioned as an AI tool for business tasks.
  • Monday.com - Mentioned as the platform for Monday Sidekick.
  • Valvoline Instant Oil Change - Mentioned in relation to an instant transfer portal.
  • DraftKings - Mentioned as a presenting sponsor of the podcast.
  • Action Network - Mentioned as the source of the podcast and betting resources.
  • NFL (National Football League) - Primary subject of discussion.
  • Miami Dolphins - Mentioned in relation to coaching changes.
  • Arizona Cardinals - Mentioned as a potential coaching job.
  • Atlanta Falcons - Mentioned as a potential coaching job.
  • Baltimore Ravens - Mentioned as a potential coaching job and in relation to Lamar Jackson.
  • Cleveland Browns - Mentioned as a potential coaching job.
  • Las Vegas Raiders - Mentioned as a potential coaching job.
  • New York Giants - Mentioned as a potential coaching job.
  • Tennessee Titans - Mentioned as a potential coaching job.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers - Mentioned in relation to coaching and the AFC North.
  • Cincinnati Bengals - Mentioned in relation to coaching and the AFC North.
  • Kansas City Chiefs - Mentioned in relation to the podcast host's fandom and potential offensive coordinator hire.
  • New England Patriots - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their schedule strength.
  • Philadelphia Eagles - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their performance.
  • Green Bay Packers - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their rivalry with the Bears.
  • Buffalo Bills - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their performance.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mentioned in relation to the Panthers' playoff game and a past offensive strategy.
  • Houston Texans - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars' winning streak and a potential game matchup.
  • Detroit Lions - Mentioned in relation to the Packers-Bears rivalry.
  • Los Angeles Rams - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their injuries.
  • Seattle Seahawks - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their power ratings.
  • Carolina Panthers - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their playoff status.
  • New Orleans Saints - Mentioned in relation to their first-quarter performance.
  • Denver Broncos - Mentioned in relation to Bo Nix's MVP odds.
  • San Francisco 49ers - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their injuries.
  • Los Angeles Chargers - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their performance.
  • Baltimore Ravens - Mentioned in relation to Jesse Minter and potential head coaching opportunities.
  • New England Patriots - Mentioned in relation to a potential game matchup and their schedule strength.

Websites & Online Resources

  • actionnetwork.com - Mentioned for betting resources and articles.
  • youtube.com/theactionnetwork - Mentioned as the platform for live streams.
  • autotrader.com - Mentioned for buying cars online.
  • autotrader app - Mentioned for buying cars online.
  • x.com (Twitter) - Mentioned for the AI quick slip bot.
  • playbook (on X/Twitter) - Mentioned as an AI tool for creating quick slip links.

Other Resources

  • AI - Mentioned in relation to Monday Sidekick.
  • DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) - Mentioned as a metric for team performance.
  • EPA per play - Mentioned as a metric for team performance.
  • Success Rate - Mentioned as a metric for team performance.
  • Turnover Luck - Mentioned as a factor in team performance.
  • Power Ratings - Mentioned as a system for ranking teams.
  • Market Rating - Mentioned as a system for ranking teams.
  • MVP Case - Mentioned in relation to Matt Stafford.
  • Playoff Environment - Mentioned in relation to team performance.
  • Coaching Job Market - Discussed in relation to available head coaching positions.
  • Retread Coach Market - Discussed in relation to available coaching candidates.
  • Smart Money - Mentioned in relation to betting trends.
  • Player Prop Projections - Mentioned as a resource.
  • Money Percentages - Mentioned as a betting indicator.
  • Wild Card Weekend - The specific NFL playoff round discussed.
  • AFC Kingmaker Game - A description of the Jaguars-Bills game.
  • MVP Odds - Mentioned in relation to player bets.
  • Super Bowl Odds - Mentioned in relation to player bets.
  • NFC Pick - Mentioned in relation to Jackson-Smith Jobe and Puka Nacua.
  • Matchup Thing - Mentioned in relation to Saquon Barkley.
  • Look Ahead Pick - Mentioned in relation to the Seahawks-Packers game.
  • AI Quick Slip Bot - Mentioned as a tool on X/Twitter.
  • Betting Podcast (NBA Buckets) - Mentioned as a daily podcast.
  • Gambling Responsibly - Mentioned as a reminder.
  • 1-800-GAMBLER - Mentioned as a resource for gambling problems.

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