NFL Playoff Betting: Experience, Home Field, and Contrarian Value

TL;DR

• The NFL's "Super Wild Card Weekend" branding is a marketing tactic to create novelty, which can be reused as playoff formats expand, demonstrating the league's long-term strategic approach to branding.
• Betting on public money as a contrarian indicator is more valuable when a large slate of games shows overwhelming public consensus on one side, suggesting potential mispricing.
• Teams with inexperienced head coaches and quarterbacks in the postseason face a significant disadvantage, as playoff experience is crucial for navigating high-pressure situations.
• Winning a division provides a home playoff game, which is a critical advantage that keeps division games competitive and rewards consistent performance throughout the season.
• Home-field advantage in the NFL playoffs is less automatic than in the regular season but still holds significant weight, particularly for quarterbacks attempting to win on the road.
• Historical data shows that road favorites in the playoffs have a poor record against the spread and straight up, indicating a tendency for underdogs to perform well.
• The historical trend of home teams being dogs in the playoffs, especially with large spreads, suggests that historical data and trends can offer valuable betting insights.
• Teams with a history of strong performance after a loss, particularly as underdogs, demonstrate a resilience that can be a significant factor in playoff handicapping.
• The NFL's playoff structure, rewarding division winners with home games, creates compelling matchups and narratives, as seen in the historical significance of games like the "Beastquake" game.
• The emphasis on quarterback performance in playoff games, especially against defenses known for creating turnovers, highlights the critical role of the QB in determining outcomes.
• The historical success of Mike Tomlin's Steelers at home on Monday nights, combined with their underdog status, presents a compelling narrative for bettors seeking value.
• The trend of teams with easier schedules performing poorly in the playoffs suggests that strength of schedule is a key handicapping factor, with teams facing tougher opponents often better prepared.
• The Eagles' strategy of resting starters in the final weeks of the season, while potentially leading to a perceived lack of recent game sharpness, provides a significant health and rest advantage for the playoffs.
• The historical struggles of dome teams playing in cold weather outdoors in the playoffs indicate a significant environmental disadvantage that can impact performance.
• The success of veteran quarterbacks in playoff games, particularly when facing less experienced opponents, underscores the value of playoff experience in high-stakes situations.
• The NFL's emphasis on division winners receiving home playoff games ensures competitive matchups and rewards consistent season-long performance, contributing to the league's overall appeal.
• The historical trend of home teams being dogs in the playoffs, especially with large spreads, suggests that historical data and trends can offer valuable betting insights.
• The NFL's playoff structure, rewarding division winners with home games, creates compelling matchups and narratives, as seen in the historical significance of games like the "Beastquake" game.
• The historical success of Mike Tomlin's Steelers at home on Monday nights, combined with their underdog status, presents a compelling narrative for bettors seeking value.
• The trend of teams with easier schedules performing poorly in the playoffs suggests that strength of schedule is a key handicapping factor, with teams facing tougher opponents often better prepared.
• The Eagles' strategy of resting starters in the final weeks of the season, while potentially leading to a perceived lack of recent game sharpness, provides a significant health and rest advantage for the playoffs.
• The historical struggles of dome teams playing in cold weather outdoors in the playoffs indicate a significant environmental disadvantage that can impact performance.
• The success of veteran quarterbacks in playoff games, particularly when facing less experienced opponents, underscores the value of playoff experience in high-stakes situations.
• The NFL's emphasis on division winners receiving home playoff games ensures competitive matchups and rewards consistent season-long performance, contributing to the league's overall appeal.
• The historical data indicating that road favorites in the playoffs have a poor record against the spread and straight up suggests that underdogs often perform well.
• The NFL's branding of "Super Wild Card Weekend" is a strategic marketing approach designed to create excitement and can be adapted for future playoff expansions.
• The tendency for teams with less challenging schedules to falter in the playoffs highlights the importance of strength of schedule as a handicapping factor.
• The Eagles' decision to rest starters before the playoffs offers a significant advantage in terms of player health and rest, crucial for postseason success.
• The historical performance of dome teams in cold weather playoff games indicates a significant environmental challenge that can impact outcomes.
• Veteran quarterbacks often demonstrate a distinct advantage in playoff games, especially when facing less experienced counterparts, due to their accumulated experience.
• The NFL