Identifying Anytime Touchdown Value Through Player Metrics and Matchups
TL;DR
- Luther Burden's elite rookie yards per route run (2.7) suggests he is a stud receiver, justifying a +250 anytime touchdown odds despite increased competition.
- Jaden Reed's consistent route participation and slot alignment against a Bears defense weak to slot receivers position him for a +250 anytime touchdown.
- DJ Moore's recent touchdown production (five in seven games) and the defensive focus on other Bears receivers create value at +370 for an anytime touchdown.
- Dalton Kincaid's increased usage in important games and the Jaguars' zone coverage, which favors tight ends, present significant upside at +255 for an anytime touchdown.
- AJ Brown's high level of play (four touchdowns in six games) against a 49ers pass defense ranked 26th in DVOA offers value at +160 for an anytime touchdown.
- Jauan Jennings' consistent touchdown scoring (seven in nine games) and strong chemistry with Brock Purdy, coupled with potential one-on-one matchups, make him a +250 anytime touchdown bet.
- Pat Freiermuth is positioned for an anytime touchdown at +400 due to the Texans' defensive tendency to allow touchdowns to tight ends and potential coverage focus on other Steelers receivers.
Deep Dive
The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast's "Touchdown Show" for NFL Wild Card Weekend focuses on identifying value in anytime touchdown scorer bets across all playoff matchups. The core insight is that while many casual bettors chase obvious favorites, strategic wagering on players with favorable matchups, increasing usage, or overlooked potential can yield significant returns. This approach emphasizes identifying specific player metrics and team tendencies to pinpoint opportune moments for individual players to find the end zone, thereby maximizing betting profitability.
The analysis delves into individual games, breaking down team strengths and weaknesses to forecast touchdown potential. For instance, the Rams at Panthers game highlights a matchup where tight ends, particularly Tommy Tremble and Jalen Coker, are identified as having strong touchdown upside against a Panthers defense weak against the position. Similarly, in the Packers-Bears game, Jaden Reed and DJ Moore are flagged for their potential to score due to their usage rates and the Bears' defensive vulnerabilities against slot receivers, despite the presence of other emerging talents.
Throughout the slate, a recurring theme is the identification of players whose odds do not reflect their current usage, matchup advantage, or historical performance. This includes players like Dalton Kincaid, whose role in the Bills' offense is projected to increase, and Travis Etienne, who is expected to receive a heavy workload against a Bills defense susceptible to the run. The discussion also touches on the strategic importance of player availability, as seen with Ty Johnson's missed practice impacting his betting viability.
The podcast concludes by consolidating these individual insights into parlay bets, demonstrating how combining several favorable individual bets can amplify potential winnings. The "Favorite Wild Card Weekend Anytime Touchdown Parlay" highlights Luther Burden, Nico Collins, and Pat Freiermuth as the chosen players, underscoring the belief in their individual touchdown-scoring potential against their respective opponents. The primary takeaway is that successful sports betting, particularly in player prop markets, requires a deep dive into game-specific dynamics and player-level analytics, moving beyond generalized team matchups to find precise opportunities for value.
Action Items
- Build a model to track player usage variance: For 3-5 players per game, measure changes in route run rate and target share week-over-week to identify potential breakout candidates.
- Analyze defensive coverage tendencies: For 2-3 teams, quantify man vs. zone coverage rates and success against slot receivers to inform player selection.
- Create a predictive model for player performance: For 5-10 high-variance players, calculate correlation between historical performance against specific defensive schemes and current odds.
- Track player injury impact on usage: For 3-5 players returning from injury, measure changes in snap count and route participation rate in the first 2-3 games back.
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View Episode Notes →Key Quotes
"The Action Network Podcast is sponsored by DraftKings Sportsbook. And in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners get a great offer right now. New customers can bet $5 and get $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Love the thrill of live betting? DraftKings has got you covered. Bet live on star player props and in-progress games right as they happen. To get started, use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings. That's code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings for $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. The crown is yours."
Chris Raybon explains the promotional offer from DraftKings Sportsbook for new customers. This offer allows new users to bet $5 and receive $300 in bonus bets if their initial bet wins, highlighting DraftKings' live betting features and a specific promo code for listeners.
"The Action Network Podcast is sponsored by DraftKings Sportsbook. And in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners get a great offer right now. New customers can bet $5 and get $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Love the thrill of live betting? DraftKings has got you covered. Bet live on star player props and in-progress games right as they happen. To get started, use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings. That's code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings for $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. The crown is yours."
Chris Raybon details a promotional offer from DraftKings Sportsbook, emphasizing the "bet $5, get $300" bonus for new customers if their bet wins. He also highlights the availability of live betting on player props and in-progress games, directing listeners to use the promo code ACTIONNETWORK.
"The Action Network Podcast is sponsored by DraftKings Sportsbook. And in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners get a great offer right now. New customers can bet $5 and get $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Love the thrill of live betting? DraftKings has got you covered. Bet live on star player props and in-progress games right as they happen. To get started, use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings. That's code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings for $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. The crown is yours."
Chris Raybon outlines a special offer from DraftKings Sportsbook for new listeners, which includes a bonus of $300 in bonus bets if a $5 wager wins. He also points out the platform's live betting capabilities for ongoing games and player props, advising the use of the promo code ACTIONNETWORK.
"The Action Network Podcast is sponsored by DraftKings Sportsbook. And in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners get a great offer right now. New customers can bet $5 and get $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Love the thrill of live betting? DraftKings has got you covered. Bet live on star player props and in-progress games right as they happen. To get started, use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings. That's code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings for $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. The crown is yours."
Chris Raybon presents a special promotion from DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can place a $5 bet and receive $300 in bonus bets if it wins. He also mentions the convenience of live betting on games and player props as they occur, encouraging the use of the promo code ACTIONNETWORK.
"The Action Network Podcast is sponsored by DraftKings Sportsbook. And in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners get a great offer right now. New customers can bet $5 and get $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Love the thrill of live betting? DraftKings has got you covered. Bet live on star player props and in-progress games right as they happen. To get started, use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings. That's code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings for $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. The crown is yours."
Chris Raybon announces a special offer from DraftKings Sportsbook for podcast listeners, providing $300 in bonus bets for new customers who bet $5 and win. He also highlights DraftKings' live betting options for games and player props, instructing listeners to use the promo code ACTIONNETWORK during signup.
"The Action Network Podcast is sponsored by DraftKings Sportsbook. And in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners get a great offer right now. New customers can bet $5 and get $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Love the thrill of live betting? DraftKings has got you covered. Bet live on star player props and in-progress games right as they happen. To get started, use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings. That's code ACTIONNETWORK when signing up with DraftKings for $300 back in bonus bets if your bet wins. The crown is yours."
Chris Raybon details a promotional offer from DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can receive $300 in bonus bets by placing a $5 winning wager. He also promotes the live betting features for player props and in-game action, advising listeners to use the promo code ACTIONNETWORK when registering.
Resources
External Resources
Articles & Papers
- "Touchdown Show | NFL Wild Card Weekend" (Podcast) - Mentioned as the context for discussing NFL wild card weekend touchdown bets.
People
- Chris Duffy - Host of "That's How to Be a Better Human" podcast.
- Sean Kerner - Guest and expert on NFL touchdown bets.
- Joe Gallant - Guest and expert on NFL touchdown bets.
- Parker Washington - Mentioned as a successful touchdown bet from the previous week.
- Drake London - Mentioned as a successful touchdown bet from the previous week.
- Travion Henderson - Mentioned as a successful touchdown bet from the previous week.
- Tank Bigsby - Mentioned as a successful touchdown bet from the previous week.
- Devante Adams - Mentioned as a player expected to return and impact usage.
- Tyler Higby - Mentioned as a player returning and impacting usage.
- Davis Allen - Mentioned as a backup tight end with potential value.
- Jaylen Koker - Mentioned as a player with touchdown upside and increased usage.
- Xavier Legette - Mentioned as a player whose role has regressed.
- Tutu Atwell - Mentioned as a player who burned the Panthers' defense previously.
- Tommy Tremble - Mentioned as a tight end with touchdown upside and increased snaps.
- Jalen Sanders - Mentioned as an injured player whose absence benefits Tommy Tremble.
- Luther Burden III - Mentioned as a player with breakout potential and high yards per route run.
- Romeo Doubs - Mentioned as a player whose absence has benefited Luther Burden III.
- JSN - Mentioned for comparison of yards per route run.
- Jaden Reed - Mentioned as a game-breaker with touchdown potential and slot usage.
- Christian Watson - Mentioned as a player with high target volume.
- DJ Moore - Mentioned as a player with favorable odds and touchdown history.
- Loveland - Mentioned as a player who has come on.
- Dunsay - Mentioned as a player returning from injury.
- Ty Johnson - Mentioned as a player showing value but with injury concerns.
- Meyers - Mentioned in relation to other players' target volume.
- Strange - Mentioned in relation to other players' target volume.
- BTJ - Mentioned in relation to other players' target volume.
- Travis Etienne - Mentioned as a player with high volume and touchdown potential.
- Tooten - Mentioned as a player who could vulture touchdowns.
- Dalton Kincaid - Mentioned as a tight end with upside against zone coverage.
- AJ Brown - Mentioned as a player playing at a high level with favorable matchup.
- Nick Bosa - Mentioned as a player whose absence impacts the 49ers' pressure rate.
- Hurts - Mentioned in relation to Jalen Hurts.
- Juwan Jennings - Mentioned as a player with a consistent touchdown history and chemistry with Brock Purdy.
- Christian McCaffrey - Mentioned as a player who draws defensive attention.
- George Kittle - Mentioned as a player who draws defensive attention.
- Saquon Barkley - Mentioned as a player with increased red zone touchdown opportunities.
- Jalen Hurts - Mentioned in relation to Saquon Barkley's touchdown opportunities.
- Pop Douglas - Mentioned as a player with increasing route run rate and upside.
- Mac Jones - Mentioned as a player on IR, impacting Pop Douglas's snaps.
- Drake Maye - Mentioned as a quarterback throwing to Pop Douglas.
- Kendrick Bourne - Mentioned in relation to Pop Douglas's touchdown history.
- Kobe Myers - Mentioned in relation to Pop Douglas's touchdown history.
- Zappy - Mentioned as a past quarterback for Pop Douglas.
- Berset - Mentioned as a past quarterback for Pop Douglas.
- Justin Herbert - Mentioned as a quarterback with rushing touchdown potential.
- Stefan Diggs - Mentioned as a player who could see high target volume.
- Kyle Williams - Mentioned as a player in place of Mac Jones.
- Woody Marks - Mentioned as a workhorse back with touchdown upside.
- Nick Chubb - Mentioned as a player who was a healthy scratch.
- Raheem Mostert - Mentioned as a player with an ankle injury.
- Nico Collins - Mentioned as a player with a dream matchup and touchdown potential.
- CJ Stroud - Mentioned as a quarterback who can find Nico Collins.
- DK Metcalf - Mentioned as a player who may be covered by Texans corners.
- Lazard - Mentioned as a player expected to return.
- Stingley - Mentioned as a player who practiced limitedly.
- Pat Freiermuth - Mentioned as a player with touchdown value against the Texans.
- Rodgers - Mentioned in relation to forcing throws to Freiermuth.
Organizations
- Valvoline Instant Oil Change - Mentioned as a sponsor.
- Acast - Mentioned as a platform that powers podcasts.
- The Action Network - Mentioned as a platform for sports betting insights.
- DraftKings - Mentioned as a sportsbook sponsor and partner.
- Los Angeles Rams - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Carolina Panthers - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Detroit Lions - Mentioned as a team with a specific offensive coordinator.
- Green Bay Packers - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Chicago Bears - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Buffalo Bills - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Jacksonville Jaguars - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- San Francisco 49ers - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Philadelphia Eagles - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Los Angeles Chargers - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- New England Patriots - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Houston Texans - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Pittsburgh Steelers - Mentioned as a team in a wild card game.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mentioned in relation to practice methods.
- Baltimore Ravens - Mentioned in relation to defensive coverage.
Websites & Online Resources
- acast.com - Mentioned as a website for creators to launch, grow, and monetize podcasts.
- actionnetwork.com/betnow - Mentioned as a website to find bets.
- actionnetwork.com/pro - Mentioned as a website to sign up for Action Pro.
- X (formerly Twitter) - Mentioned as a platform for theories about the 49ers' injuries.
Podcasts & Audio
- That's How to Be a Better Human Podcast - Mentioned as a podcast hosted by Chris Duffy.
- The Action Network Podcast - Mentioned as the podcast where the discussion is taking place.
Other Resources
- Wild Card Weekend - Mentioned as the NFL playoff round being discussed.
- Anytime Touchdowns - Mentioned as a type of bet being discussed.
- Quick Slip Link - Mentioned as a link to find bets in podcast descriptions.
- Action Pro - Mentioned as a service for real-time pick alerts and projections.
- Parlay Express - Mentioned as an account in the Action Network app to follow bets.
- Playbook - Mentioned as an AI quick slip bot on X.