Analog Computing: Solving AI's Unsustainable Energy Demands
TL;DR
- Current digital computing's 80-year paradigm is ill-suited for AI's energy demands, consuming 4% of the US grid and requiring 400 GW more, necessitating a shift to more efficient analog or neuromorphic architectures.
- Analog computing leverages physical system dynamics for computation, offering inherent efficiency and speed advantages over digital's numerical approximations, making it a better substrate for intelligence.
- Biological systems like brains operate on vastly less power (20W for humans, 0.1W for squirrels) by directly implementing neural network dynamics physically, a stark contrast to digital's abstracted, lossy approach.
- AI's stochastic and distributed nature is a poor fit for digital's precise, deterministic numerical substrate, suggesting analog systems that mirror physical dynamics can better capture intelligence.
- The global energy crisis for AI necessitates rethinking computing substrates, as building more power generation alone is insufficient and slow compared to developing more efficient hardware.
- Intelligence, unlike generic calculation, is inherently dynamic and causal, suggesting that computing substrates incorporating time evolution will be more effective for achieving AGI.
- Unconventional AI aims to build scalable analog chips, partnering with manufacturers like TSMC, to address AI's energy bottleneck and create a more ubiquitous AI future.
Deep Dive
The current digital computing paradigm, established in the 1940s, is fundamentally misaligned with the needs of modern artificial intelligence, leading to an unsustainable energy consumption crisis. Naveen Rao, CEO of Unconventional AI, argues that the future of AI, and potentially AGI, lies in analog computing, which mimics the efficiency and physical principles of biological systems. This shift is not merely an incremental improvement but a necessary architectural reinvention driven by the escalating demand for AI processing power, which currently consumes 4% of the US energy grid and is projected to require vast increases in capacity.
The core of Rao's argument rests on the inherent inefficiency of digital computers for AI tasks. Digital systems represent numbers with discrete bits, introducing precision errors and requiring immense computational overhead to simulate processes that are naturally continuous. In contrast, analog computers leverage the physics of the underlying medium to perform calculations, mirroring the brain's highly efficient, low-power operation. While digital computing excels at general-purpose numerical simulation, it is a suboptimal substrate for the stochastic and dynamic nature of intelligence. The brain, operating on roughly 20 watts, performs complex computations by directly implementing neural network dynamics physically, without the layers of abstraction found in digital systems. This biological model suggests that by using physical systems analogous to the quantities being computed, significant gains in efficiency and capability can be achieved.
The implications of this architectural divergence are profound. Firstly, the current trajectory of AI development, heavily reliant on digital hardware, is on a collision course with global energy limitations. Data centers are projected to require hundreds of gigawatts of additional capacity in the coming decade, a demand that cannot be met by current energy production and transmission infrastructure alone. Unconventional AI's pursuit of analog computing is thus a critical response to this pending energy crisis, aiming to enable AI ubiquity through drastically more efficient hardware. Secondly, this approach could unlock new frontiers in AI research, particularly in achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). By building systems that inherently understand time and causality, mirroring physical processes, Rao believes AI can move beyond pattern recognition and develop a more fundamental understanding of the world, leading to more robust and human-like intelligence. This contrasts with current AI models, which, while powerful, still exhibit "stupid errors" and lack a true grasp of causality.
The path forward for Unconventional AI involves developing scalable analog circuits that can efficiently implement modern AI models like transformers and diffusion models, particularly those based on energy dynamics. This requires a departure from traditional hardware development, where manufacturing scalability is often prioritized from the outset. Rao's strategy emphasizes demonstrating the existence of these analog computation principles first, then engineering them for mass production, with TSMC identified as a key manufacturing partner. The company seeks individuals with diverse skill sets, from theoretical physicists and neuroscientists to analog circuit designers, all possessing high agency and a passion for tackling fundamental problems. This focus on building a "practical research lab" culture aims to foster innovation by allowing engineers to explore novel solutions without premature limitations. Ultimately, Rao posits that success in this venture will have a generational impact, fundamentally reshaping computing and AI for decades to come.
Action Items
- Audit current AI hardware: Identify 3-5 key limitations in digital computing for AI workloads (energy consumption, precision, speed).
- Draft analog circuit design principles: Document 3-5 core concepts for mapping AI model dynamics to physical system behaviors.
- Measure energy efficiency gap: Calculate the difference between current AI data center energy consumption (4% US grid) and biological systems (20 watts).
- Explore causality integration: Research 3-5 methods for incorporating dynamic time and causality into AI model training for improved AGI potential.
- Prototype analog AI chip: Design and build a proof-of-concept analog chip, targeting a minimum scale of 10 million units for manufacturing feasibility.
Key Quotes
"The brain's 20 watts of energy and the kind of computations that can happen inside of a brain and neural systems I was just blown away then and I'm still blown away by it and I think we haven't really scratched the surface of how we can get close to that biology is exquisitely efficient it's very fast it right sizes itself to the application at hand when you're chilling out you don't use much energy but you're so aware of other threats and things and once a threat happens like everything turns on it's very dynamic and we really haven't built systems like this."
Naveen Rao highlights the remarkable efficiency and dynamic nature of biological systems, specifically the brain, as a model for computation. He argues that current computing systems have not yet replicated this biological efficiency, suggesting a significant area for advancement in artificial intelligence hardware. Rao emphasizes that biology's ability to scale energy usage based on the task at hand is a key characteristic that current systems lack.
"Very simply digital computers implement numerics and numerics with some sort of estimation right I mean in a digital computer a number is represented by a fixed number of bits and that has some precision error and things like this it's just the way we implement the system if you make it enough bits like 64 bits you can largely say that maybe the error is small you don't have to think about it and so the digital computer is capable of simulating anything that you can express as numbers and arithmetic."
Rao explains the fundamental difference between digital and analog computing by defining digital systems as those that use a fixed number of bits to represent numbers, inherently involving some estimation and potential precision error. He notes that while digital computers are general-purpose machines capable of simulating any process expressible through numbers and arithmetic, this approach comes with inherent limitations in precision.
"Analog computers the first computers and they worked really well they're very efficient but they couldn't be scaled up because of manufacturing variability so someone said okay you know what I can't actually say that they can make a vacuum tube behave as a high or low very reliably I can't characterize the in between very well but I can say it's high or low and so that was kind of where we went to digital abstraction and then we could scale up."
Rao discusses the historical reasons for the shift towards digital computing, explaining that early analog computers were efficient but faced challenges with manufacturing variability. He states that the inability to reliably control analog components led to the adoption of digital abstraction, which allowed for greater scalability and became the dominant paradigm.
"So we believe we can find the right isomorphism in electrical circuits that can subserve intelligence that's a pretty wild idea isn't it maybe unpack it one level deeper because I totally agree with you computers for decades have been sort of the complement to human intelligence right it's like hey my brain isn't really great at computing an orbital trajectory sorry and I don't want to burn up on re entry so like a computer can help us with this incredible degree of precision we're now kind of going the opposite direction right where we're actually trying to encode more sort of fuzziness into computer systems."
Rao proposes that by identifying suitable electrical circuit designs, it might be possible to create hardware that directly supports intelligence, a concept he acknowledges as unconventional. He contrasts this with the traditional role of computers as tools for precise calculations that complement human intelligence, noting the current trend toward incorporating more "fuzziness" or probabilistic reasoning into computing systems for AI.
"The US is about 50% of the world's data center capacity and today we put about 4% of the energy grid the US energy grid into those data centers and this this past year 2025 was the first time we started to see news articles about brownouts in the southwest during the summer and you know just imagine what happens when this goes to 8 10% of the energy grid it's not going to be a good place that we're in."
Rao points to the significant and growing energy demands of data centers, particularly for AI workloads, as a critical global challenge. He highlights the current consumption of 4% of the US energy grid by data centers and projects a severe strain on infrastructure, evidenced by recent brownout concerns, if this demand continues to escalate. Rao suggests this energy constraint necessitates a fundamental rethinking of computing architectures.
"I think there are certain types of workloads that are amenable to these analog approaches especially the ones that are that can be expressed as um dynamical systems dynamics mean time they have time associated with them in the real world every physical process has time and in the computing world like the numeric computing world we actually don't have that concept you simulate time with numbers actually simulating time is very useful in certain uh certain problems."
Rao explains that analog computing approaches are particularly well-suited for workloads that can be modeled as dynamical systems, which inherently involve time. He contrasts this with traditional numeric computing, where time is simulated rather than being an intrinsic concept, suggesting that analog systems can leverage the natural temporal dynamics of physical processes for computation.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The 80-Year Bet: Why Naveen Rao Is Rebuilding the Computer from Scratch" by Naveen Rao - Mentioned as the title of the podcast episode.
Articles & Papers
- "The 80-Year Bet: Why Naveen Rao Is Rebuilding the Computer from Scratch" (a16z Show) - Mentioned as the title of the podcast episode.
People
- Naveen Rao - Cofounder and CEO of Unconventional AI, expert in AI, previously led AI at Databricks and founded Mosaic and Nervana.
- Matt Bornstein - Host of the a16z Show episode.
- Marc Andreessen - Host of the a16z Show episode.
- Yann LeCun - Mentioned in relation to writing about energy-based models.
Organizations & Institutions
- Unconventional AI - AI chip startup building analog computing systems.
- Databricks - Company where Naveen Rao previously led AI.
- Mosaic - Cloud computing company founded by Naveen Rao.
- Nervana - AI accelerators company founded by Naveen Rao, acquired by Intel.
- Intel - Acquired Nervana, company where Naveen Rao previously worked as an executive.
- NVIDIA - Company that built the platform for programming AI, potential collaborator or competitor.
- TSMC - Manufacturer of chips, considered a potential partner for Unconventional AI.
- Google - Company with internal AI capabilities and TPUs, considered a potential ally.
- Microsoft - Mentioned as being at the forefront of the application space for AI.
- a16z (Andreessen Horowitz) - Host of the podcast.
Websites & Online Resources
- a16z.com/disclosures - Provided for more details on a16z investments.
- a16z.substack.com - Substack for a16z.
Other Resources
- NeurIPS - Conference where the podcast episode was recorded.
- AI (Artificial Intelligence) - Primary subject of discussion regarding computing substrates and future evolution.
- Analog Computing - Type of computing system discussed as a potential substrate for AI.
- Digital Computing - Traditional computing system discussed in contrast to analog computing.
- AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) - Discussed as a potential future outcome of advancements in AI hardware.
- Transformers - Type of AI model that works well on GPUs.
- Diffusion Models - Type of AI model discussed as energy-based and inherently having dynamics.
- Flow Models - Type of AI model discussed as energy-based and inherently having dynamics.
- Energy-Based Models - Type of AI model discussed as having inherent dynamics.
- Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) - Mathematical concept used to describe energy-based and flow models.
- Neural Networks - Biological and computational systems discussed in relation to efficiency and intelligence.
- Dynamical Systems - Mathematical concept relevant to analog computing and AI models.
- Causality - Concept discussed as potentially innate to intelligence and important for future AI.
- TPUs (Tensor Processing Units) - Google's internal hardware for AI.
- Matrix Multiply - Operation discussed as a potential area for improvement in AI hardware.
- Full Stack Engineer - Concept of an engineer with broad technical knowledge.