NFL Week 14 Player Props and Parlays Exploit Betting Inefficiencies
TL;DR
- Josh Allen's passing attempts over 27.5 are favored due to the Bengals' high offensive play volume and the potential for a shootout, especially with Joe Burrow's return.
- Chase Brown's rushing yards over 49.5 are a strong play against the Bills' weaker run defense, amplified by the Bengals' overall offensive improvement.
- Tyrod Taylor's rushing yards over 23.5 are projected to hit, given his willingness to run and the Dolphins' league-worst allowance of quarterback rushing yards.
- Cam Ward and Shador Sanders are both projected for over 2.5 rushing attempts, reflecting a strategic shift towards quarterback mobility for both players.
- Blake Corum's anytime touchdown prop is a favorable bet against Arizona's poor run defense, which has allowed the sixth-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.
- Defensive touchdowns for Washington, Jacksonville, and the Rams are considered viable bets, with each team having a reasonable chance to score defensively.
- Dawson Knox scoring two touchdowns combined with a Bengals moneyline bet offers a high-upside parlay due to the Bengals' historical struggles defending tight ends.
Deep Dive
This NFL Week 14 podcast episode focuses on player props and parlays, highlighting a series of high-confidence bets rooted in specific player matchups and statistical trends. The core arguments revolve around exploiting perceived inefficiencies in betting lines, particularly concerning quarterback rushing yards, defensive player performance, and specific player statistical overs. The implications are that these targeted bets, when executed with a deep dive into individual player tendencies and team defensive weaknesses, can offer significant value, leading to consistent wins and potentially large payouts through parlays.
The analysis dives into several key areas. Firstly, quarterback rushing overs are frequently emphasized, with the rationale that players like Josh Allen, J.J. McCarthy, and Tyrod Taylor are undervalued due to their willingness to run, especially when facing defenses that struggle against the run or when their teams are in desperate situations. The implication is that betting on these rushing totals, even when seemingly low, offers a strong probability of success due to the consistent usage and athletic capability of these quarterbacks.
Secondly, the podcast highlights defensive player props, specifically focusing on sacks and interceptions. The argument for Daniel Hunter exceeding a quarter-sack is based on the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive line injuries and Patrick Mahomes' tendency to hold the ball, creating opportunities for sacks. Similarly, Mahomes is also targeted for an interception due to the Texans' ability to force turnovers and Mahomes' recent interception history. The underlying implication is that defensive line performance and quarterback decision-making are predictable enough to form the basis of profitable bets.
Thirdly, the discussion on various player receiving overs, such as Chase Brown and Adde Mitchell, is grounded in the perceived weaknesses of opposing run and pass defenses respectively. The expectation is that these players will see increased volume or exploit favorable matchups, leading to them exceeding their yardage or reception totals. The implication here is that identifying teams with specific defensive vulnerabilities allows for profitable targeting of their offensive playmakers.
Finally, the episode emphasizes "ladder" bets and "parlay" strategies, where multiple correlated or uncorrelated bets are combined for amplified potential returns. For instance, a parlay might combine a tight end scoring multiple touchdowns with a team's moneyline win, or a "four-by-four" bet involves multiple players achieving anytime touchdowns and a quarterback throwing for multiple touchdowns. The implication is that while individual prop bets offer value, strategic combination through parlays can lead to life-changing payouts, rewarding a deep understanding of player and team dynamics that might be overlooked by the broader betting market.
Action Items
- Audit team evaluation process: Define 3-5 objective criteria for assessing player performance beyond win-loss records, incorporating metrics like adjusted scores and expected point differential.
- Track 5-10 key game events per team (e.g., turnovers, special teams plays) to quantify their impact on game outcomes and identify variance drivers.
- Measure correlation: For 3-5 teams, calculate the relationship between their win-loss record and power ranking scores to assess perceived strength versus actual results.
- Implement a runbook template: Define 5 essential sections (setup, common failures, rollback, monitoring) to standardize operational documentation and prevent knowledge silos.
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View Episode Notes →Key Quotes
"The point is josh allen attempts is at 27 and a half we're going to go over I think the return of burrow makes it obviously spicier in terms of a back and forth yeah and the bengals in general run a lot of plays they're second in the nfl in plays run and so over the last five weeks and so I it kind of adds up to a game that seems like it's going to end up being a shootout we're also coming off a game where the bills finally ran the ball like 45 times or whatever yeah just gave it to james cook and so you probably have a little bit of a depressed number because of that as well so 27 and a half passing attempts over for josh allen hopefully the weather isn't too bad"
Kramer argues that Josh Allen's passing attempts will go over 27.5. He bases this on the Bengals' tendency to run many plays and the likelihood of a shootout, especially with Burrow's return. Kramer also suggests the Bills' recent heavy run game might have artificially lowered Allen's attempt line.
"I'm going to go to the game that with the apostrophe is playing in another action spot I'll be going in there um this is also a uh self tout of a directionally correct future that I'm playing in you also in weather sean yeah I'm all right thank you I got I got some all right um so this is a directionally correct tout that I've done that I'm very proud of myself that's not going to come close to cashing I like the use of directional yeah preseason here of course I've uh we all saw your spotify wrapped list everyone's watching thousands and thousands of hours of sgpn then if you're out the summer pre season show doing our futures and all that I was touting two defensive players for defensive player of the year and most total sacks and got massive numbers on them because they were the second name on their defense a very good defense one is daniel hunter for the texans yeah will will anderson was the chalk"
C.J. Sullivan discusses a "directionally correct future" bet he made in the preseason, specifically on Danielle Hunter for Defensive Player of the Year and most total sacks. He highlights that Hunter was the second name on his defense and that Will Anderson was the favored player. Sullivan expresses pride in this bet, even if it might not cash.
"I am going to do a double prop here if you don't mind um I'm gonna give you my third and fourth at the same time because they're kind of correlated they kind of go together if it's and if bet maybe if not whatever mixing and matching speaking of quarterbacks and running which has been a theme today let's go to the let's go to the real quarterback matchup down in cleveland there tennessee titans shador cam ward cam ward get your popcorn ready cam ward I know I I was burnt last week on the cam ward rushing yard prop I gave out a ladder yes very very annoying previous before having his worst game of the season last week which followed his best game of the season the week before over seattle he had a couple two three hundred reason why I went with the rushing ladders because the coaches told him to start running the ball more and it's part of his development he started it started making his passing game better and he had three attempts for 35 six attempts for 40 whatever blah blah blah and then last week he went back to one for seven for some reason"
C.J. Sullivan is presenting correlated quarterback rushing props, focusing on the Titans' Will Levis (referred to as "Shador" and "Cam Ward"). He notes his previous "ladder" bet on Levis's rushing yards was unsuccessful last week after a strong performance the week prior. Sullivan explains that coaches encouraged Levis to run more as part of his development, which improved his passing game.
"I'm going to go with yards 53 and a half you can beat these colts through the air and yeah I expect a nice decent scoring game I see this as like a 30 30 23 game they um you can tell the coaching staff really likes jacobbe myers because they they he gets the treatment of like it's been really refreshing yes to see the way that he works you know what I mean like they're always surprised well I think with the I think what they did inadvertently was they leveled up the whole room because they brought in a vet that it seems like maybe they didn't have anyone in the room showing that's true showing the young guys showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah showing the young guys yeah
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Book of Basketball" by Bill Simmons - Mentioned in relation to a discussion about the greatest basketball players of all time.
Articles & Papers
- "The Case for the 2010s Celtics" (The Ringer) - Referenced as an example of a well-argued piece about a specific team's historical significance.
People
- Bill Simmons - Mentioned as the author of "The Book of Basketball."
- CJ Sullivan - Guest, host of the "Bottom Line Bombs" podcast.
- Dalton Kincaid - Player mentioned in relation to potential injury impacting performance.
- Dawson Knox - Player mentioned in relation to potential touchdown bets.
- DeVante Adams - Player mentioned in relation to potential receiving yardage bets.
- Devin Vele - Player mentioned in relation to receiving yardage bets.
- J.J. McCarthy - Player mentioned in relation to rushing yardage bets and potential job security.
- James Franklin - Mentioned in relation to a successful recruiting class.
- Jared Goff - Player mentioned in relation to passing attempts in a specific game.
- Jaylen Waddle - Player mentioned in relation to being a top player on his team.
- Josh Allen - Player mentioned in relation to passing attempts and potential for a shootout.
- Josh Allen - Player mentioned in relation to being a top player on his team.
- Josh Harris - Mentioned in relation to a potential ownership group.
- Josh Jacobs - Player mentioned in relation to potential touchdown bets.
- Josh Simmons - Player mentioned in relation to being on the injured reserve.
- Justin Fields - Player mentioned in relation to rushing yards.
- Kareem Hunt - Player mentioned in relation to potential rushing game struggles.
- Kevin O'Connell - Coach mentioned in relation to his team's performance and potential job security.
- Kirk Cousins - Player mentioned in relation to potential interceptions.
- Kyren Williams - Player mentioned in relation to an ankle injury and potential workload split.
- Marcus Mariota - Player mentioned in relation to potential interceptions.
- Miles Garrett - Player mentioned in relation to his performance in sacks.
- Mike McCarthy - Coach mentioned in relation to watching film.
- Money Grey - Host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.
- Pat McAfee - Mentioned in relation to a podcast.
- Patrick Mahomes - Player mentioned in relation to potential sacks, interceptions, and rushing yards.
- Quentin Johnston - Player mentioned in relation to rushing attempts.
- Rattler - Player mentioned in relation to combined passing yards in a game.
- Riley Leonard - Player mentioned in relation to having a broken leg.
- Ryan Kramer - Host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.
- Sean Green - Host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.
- Sean Segura - Host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.
- Shador Sanders - Player mentioned in relation to rushing attempts and potential for a shootout.
- T.J. Hockenson - Player mentioned in relation to potential injury impacting performance.
- T.J. Stroud - Player mentioned in relation to a sack.
- Tua Tagovailoa - Player mentioned in relation to rushing yards.
- Tyrod Taylor - Player mentioned in relation to rushing yards and potential for a shootout.
- Will Anderson - Player mentioned in relation to being a top player on his team and sacks.
Organizations
- Arizona Cardinals - Mentioned in relation to their defense against running backs.
- Bethel University - Mentioned in relation to college football.
- Buffalo Bills - Mentioned in relation to their offense and running game.
- Carolina Panthers - Mentioned in relation to a game.
- Cincinnati Bengals - Mentioned in relation to their defense against quarterbacks and tight ends.
- Clemson University - Mentioned in relation to players from the program.
- Dallas Cowboys - Mentioned in relation to a coach's previous job.
- Denver Broncos - Mentioned in relation to a game.
- Detroit Lions - Mentioned in relation to a potential bet.
- FCS - Mentioned in relation to college football.
- Green Bay Packers - Mentioned in relation to a game and a quarterback's performance.
- Houston Texans - Mentioned in relation to a kicker and their offense.
- Jacksonville Jaguars - Mentioned in relation to their offense and a parlay bet.
- Kansas City Chiefs - Mentioned in relation to their offensive line struggles.
- LSU University - Mentioned in relation to players from the program.
- Miami Dolphins - Mentioned in relation to their defense against quarterbacks.
- Minnesota Vikings - Mentioned in relation to their defense and potential for interceptions.
- New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team for performance analysis.
- New Orleans Saints - Mentioned in relation to a game and a kicker's performance.
- NFL (National Football League) - Primary subject of sports discussion.
- NCAA - Mentioned in relation to college football.
- Philadelphia Eagles - Mentioned in relation to a player's speed and a coach's weight loss.
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Data source for player grading.
- Rhode Island - Mentioned in relation to sports betting availability.
- San Diego - Mentioned in relation to a past event.
- Seattle Seahawks - Mentioned in relation to a game.
- Sports Gambling Podcast Network (SGPN) - Mentioned as the network hosting the podcast.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mentioned in relation to their defense against quarterbacks.
- Tennessee Titans - Mentioned in relation to their quarterback's performance.
- Texas A&M - Mentioned in relation to a player.
- The Ringer - Publication mentioned for an article.
- UCLA - Mentioned in relation to a player.
- Underdog Fantasy - Sports betting platform mentioned for prop bets.
- Washington Commanders - Mentioned in relation to their defense and a coach's play-calling.
- Wisconsin Lacrosse - Mentioned as not being a college football team.
Websites & Online Resources
- Cigarbid.com - Online cigar auction site mentioned for deals.
- DK (DraftKings) - Sports betting platform mentioned for odds.
- MyBookie - Sports betting platform mentioned for odds.
- Novig - Sports prediction market platform mentioned for prop bets.
- Rhythm - Platform mentioned for tracking plays and betting on NFL props.
- Spotify - Platform mentioned for listening to the podcast and sharing Wrapped data.
- Underdog - Sports betting platform mentioned for new customer offers.
Other Resources
- "Bottom Line Bombs" - Podcast mentioned as being hosted by CJ Sullivan.
- "Four Loco" - Alcoholic beverage mentioned in relation to a parlay bet.
- "The Apostrophe Gang" - Term used to refer to a group of bettors.
- "Team Mobile" - Nickname for a player.
- "The Cu Aunties" - Group of women rooting for a specific player.
- "The Wheel" - Term used to describe a betting strategy.
- "White Angle treatment" - Term used to describe a player's unexpected speed.
- "Shuckleheads" - Term coined by CJ Sullivan for fans of a player.
- "Shuckster" - Alternative term for a fan of a player.
- "Four by Four" - A type of parlay bet.
- "Four Loco" - A type of parlay bet.
- "Reverse correlation" - A betting strategy.
- "Pass funnel" - A defensive strategy.
- "Ladder" - A type of betting strategy.
- "DJ only" - A type of betting strategy.
- "D-Jen Parlay" - A type of parlay bet.
- "Round robin" - A type of betting strategy.
- "Private stock" - A term for bets not publicly shared.
- "Milky Maker" - A type of fantasy football contest.
- "Nil money" - Name, Image, and Likeness compensation in college sports.
- "Transfer portal" - System for college athletes to transfer schools.
- "College Football Picks Contest" - A competition mentioned.
- "Bonus College Basketball" - A type of podcast episode.
- "Supercharger charge" - A term used in betting.
- "Foul disgusting" - A term used to describe a bet.
- "Real men of DJ" - A term used to describe a betting group.
- "Lucky day" - A term used in betting.
- "Triple stacked" - A betting strategy.
- "Banger" - A type of bet.
- "The Gate" - A term used in betting.
- "TMC" - An abbreviation used in betting.
- "SB anymore" - A phrase used in betting.
- "SGPn for life" - A phrase used in betting.
- "SGP recevo" - A phrase used in betting.