College Sports Analysis--Betting, Rankings, and Business Models - Episode Hero Image

College Sports Analysis--Betting, Rankings, and Business Models

Sports Gambling Podcast · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The SEC's perceived dominance in college football rankings is questioned, with the Big 12 argued as superior due to fewer teams with multiple losses, indicating a potential misallocation of perceived strength.
  • The debate around college football playoff selections highlights a tension between rewarding conference champions and prioritizing overall team strength, suggesting a potential flaw in the selection criteria.
  • The increasing use of neutral site games in college basketball, driven by analytics and a desire to avoid home losses, manipulates rankings and potentially diminishes the traditional home-court advantage.
  • The rise of "cyborg" content creators, influenced by social media algorithms, may lead to reactionary takes rather than genuine analysis, impacting the authenticity of sports commentary.
  • The financial investment in college sports, exemplified by Utah's pursuit of profit and BYU's high NIL deals, signals a shift towards a business-centric model, potentially altering the landscape of collegiate athletics.
  • The effectiveness of "paid mercenaries" in college basketball rosters is questioned, as Kentucky's struggles suggest that talent alone, without team cohesion and coaching, may not guarantee success.

Deep Dive

The podcast episode "College Basketball Picks: Sat, Dec 13th (Ep. 2448)" from the Sports Gambling Podcast, featuring Ryan Kramer, Sean Green, and Colby Dant, primarily functions as a platform for sports betting analysis and predictions. The core "argument," if it can be called that, is that by dissecting college basketball games with a focus on matchups, trends, and statistical analysis, listeners can gain an edge in sports wagering. The second-order implication is that this detailed breakdown of games, including discussions on venue, team form, and coaching, serves not only to inform betting decisions but also to foster a community around shared interest in college sports and gambling.

The episode's structure revolves around a series of college basketball game previews and betting picks. The hosts discuss various matchups, offering their opinions and handicaps, often referencing advanced metrics like KenPom and Torvik, alongside more qualitative assessments of team performance and coaching. This analytical approach, while seemingly straightforward, has several downstream effects. Firstly, it positions the podcast as an authority in sports betting, encouraging listener engagement through shared picks and discussions on platforms like Discord. Secondly, the consistent promotion of sports betting platforms and related services (e.g., Underdog Fantasy, CalShey, Novig) underscores the commercial aspect of the podcast, demonstrating how content creation can be monetized through affiliate partnerships and sponsorships. The detailed breakdown of each game, from specific point spreads to player availability and historical trends, highlights the depth of analysis expected by a dedicated audience seeking actionable insights for their betting strategies.

The episode concludes with the hosts sharing their "locks" and "dogs" for the day, reinforcing the predictive and opinion-driven nature of the content. This practice of offering explicit betting recommendations serves as a call to action for listeners, encouraging them to follow the advice and engage further with the podcast's ecosystem. The underlying implication is that by consistently providing these predictions, the podcast aims to build a loyal following that trusts their insights, thereby driving listenership and revenue through various channels. The casual yet informed tone, interspersed with insider references and personal anecdotes, aims to create an accessible and engaging experience for those interested in the intersection of sports, analytics, and gambling.

Action Items

  • Audit college football playoff selection criteria: Identify 3-5 subjective decision points and propose objective metrics to mitigate bias.
  • Analyze social media engagement strategies: For 2-3 content creators, evaluate how algorithm manipulation impacts their takes.
  • Develop team evaluation framework: Define criteria for assessing team strength beyond win-loss records, incorporating performance metrics.
  • Track betting spread variance: For 5-10 games, compare pre-game spreads to actual outcomes to identify predictive model limitations.
  • Measure impact of NIL deals: For 3-5 programs, assess correlation between NIL investment and on-court performance.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"i don't understand why why you like why the powers are so against these smaller teams getting a shot i don't get it i just don't get it who does he represent though i guess that's the part where cbs i mean cbs is affiliated with their podcast yeah but are they even a big dog anymore in college football cbs yeah i mean they own the big 10 yeah i mean them and fox yeah own the big 10 so yeah yeah no i i mean it's yeah the safety thing is hilarious and the spread 17 and a half which is certainly high but look at some of these other college football games and spreads like and and i wouldn't i wouldn't have a problem if notre dame being in the playoff expanded to 16 teams put notre dame byu vandy in i would have been fine with that texas like and their their claim of blowouts every fucking game last year was a blowout and those were all like tennessee lost by like 40 to ohio state texas rolled clemson what are you talking about it doesn't matter a blowout's a blowout right we might as well let the team that's deserving at 12 and one into the dance uh it's it's just ridiculous"

The speaker expresses frustration with the perceived bias against smaller teams in college football playoff selections. They question the reasoning behind excluding deserving teams and highlight inconsistencies in how blowouts are perceived when evaluating team performance. The speaker believes that a 12-1 record should warrant inclusion, regardless of conference affiliation or perceived strength of schedule.

"i don't understand about like again it's back to the herb street take i had on the last college show i i don't i really don't like so bud elliott i'll use it as an example he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy like if i don't think he would be shilling someone else's take more than he's just he's keenly aware to how social media works and i i like to me he's more willing you say he's becoming fine bomb i'm saying he's becoming yeah troll he understands how to hit the he understands how to hit the fire up the callers yeah and i think you even saw it on you know you've been a long time listener of cover 3 which is one of the other college shows that is listenable in my opinion that's not colby's show and i've never heard tom fornelli lose his mind like he's lost his mind on bud elliott a couple of times as it regards to his takes on the college football playoffs so could this be a little tango of just looking to get more social media interaction i think that's way more likely than he honestly believes that like this the guy that knows the recruiting like he understands how dumb his takes are there could be a threat on that you know what i mean like i think this is pretty obvious now indiana is the one seed they have no five stars so their whole team is jmu and he would know that right so well so but i'm saying maybe he wants to protect the blue bloods because of the recruiting i have no fucking idea or it's clickbait maybe maybe that's it you maybe you're right i mean he's a smart dude or like you colby you've learned that when you start shitting it up with these coaches you're friends with them and you don't want to say mean things you want to be able to you want to be invited back to the next time they have they break bread"

The speaker speculates that certain media personalities, like Bud Elliott, may be influenced by social media dynamics and the desire for engagement rather than genuinely holding their stated opinions. They suggest that these takes might be strategic to generate reactions or protect established "blue blood" programs, rather than reflecting a true assessment of team capabilities. The speaker believes this is more likely than the individuals genuinely believing their controversial viewpoints.

"the greatest thing that can happen is someone at the very bottom make their way up to the very top i mean why did that fucking tv show with ryan reynolds and the guy from always sunny do so well because they bought a team that was shit at the bottom and they're making their way to the fucking top and that's college sports and it's crazy to me that you can be someone who loves college sports and has a take that is so ridiculous and that's why like some of these guys i don't believe that it can possibly be their take i can't believe that you're really i mean even we saw uh in the betting spectrum a friend of the program jared smith who has i would say at minimum very controversial i would say again someone else who's very keenly aware to how social media works and it allow you allow the algorithm to augment and affect your take it's crazy no i think i was the nicest way i could possibly say that jared jared's take was that he thought it was silly that he's a nice guy but yeah i'm just saying in general if your take is reactionary to how the the algorithm and the machine works you are already being manipulated by the machine you are a cyborg and that to me that's the only that's the crazy take that's the only explanation if you i think if you are being manipulated by machine or ai based inputs aka you're being a slave to the algorithm"

The speaker argues that the inherent appeal of college sports lies in the underdog narrative, drawing a parallel to a popular TV show about sports ownership. They express disbelief that someone who claims to love college sports would hold a take that contradicts this fundamental aspect. The speaker suggests that some individuals' opinions are so out of sync with this core value that they must be influenced by external factors like social media algorithms, leading them to become "cyborgs" manipulated by the machine.

"i think the biggest thing that kind of stands out this year is how there's a bigger gap between the power conferences and the mid majors in basketball than typically in the kenpom rankings now you're you're getting all hot and bothered about the sec being number one like the the top three conferences are all neck and neck so i wouldn't over i wouldn't overthink that i have the sec is i don't think they're neck and neck at all like i have the sec at fourth uh at like to me you can argue the acc the big ten and the big 12 are by far better than the acc and sec and the big 12 is by far the best conference in college basketball like if you watch the games like i i don't even understand how they get they have sec power ranking number one i have them fourth but you can make an argument for third they're definitely better than the big east uh the highest you could put them is third because there's a big gap to me between one and two and three and four and then there's a big gap from three and four to five the big 12 the big 12 only has uh five teams with three losses or more and they only have

Resources

External Resources

Books

Videos & Documentaries

Research & Studies

Tools & Software

  • KenPom - Referenced for college basketball team and conference rankings.
  • Torvik - Referenced for college basketball team rankings.

Articles & Papers

People

  • Lisa Leslie - Mentioned in a State Street ETF advertisement.
  • Phil - Mentioned as a Meta building engineer in Las Lunas, New Mexico.
  • Ryan Kramer - Co-host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.
  • Sean Green - Co-host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.
  • Colby Dant - Guest from The College Basketball Experience.
  • Herb Sendek - Mentioned as the head coach at Santa Clara, formerly of Arizona State.
  • James Harden - Mentioned as a player coached by Herb Sendek at Arizona State.
  • Bobby Hurley - Mentioned as the coach of Arizona State.
  • Will Wade - Mentioned as the coach of an unnamed program, previously associated with LSU.
  • Fred Hoiberg - Mentioned as the coach of Nebraska, also referred to as "The Mayor."
  • Sam Hoiberg - Mentioned as Fred Hoiberg's son.
  • Peyton - Mentioned in relation to his brother Price Stanford.
  • Price Stanford - Mentioned as a player for Nebraska.
  • Shaheen Holloway - Mentioned as the coach of Seton Hall.
  • Mac - Mentioned as being at his apartment at 5 am after finals week.
  • Josh Gordon - Mentioned in relation to Mac.
  • McIntyre - Mentioned in relation to Mac.
  • Buzz Williams - Mentioned as the coach of Maryland.
  • Lane Kiffin - Mentioned in relation to SMU and LSU.
  • Chris Beard - Mentioned as the coach of Ole Miss.
  • Mark Pope - Mentioned as the coach of Kentucky.
  • Rick Pitino - Mentioned in relation to Kentucky.
  • Tommy Lloyd - Mentioned as the coach of Arizona.
  • Kalani Sitake - Mentioned in relation to BYU's basketball program.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Meta - Mentioned for its investment in American jobs and infrastructure.
  • State Street - Mentioned as the official ETF partner of the WNBA.
  • WNBA - Mentioned in relation to State Street ETF.
  • Lowe's - Mentioned for holiday deals on appliances.
  • Ondex - Mentioned for small business loans.
  • Celtic Bank - Mentioned as a lender for Ondex.
  • Talkspace - Mentioned as an online therapy service.
  • Circa Las Vegas - Mentioned as a place where Derek Stevens is the owner.
  • Sports Gambling Podcast (SGPN) - The podcast itself.
  • CalShey - Mentioned as a platform for trading college basketball.
  • Rhythm - Mentioned as a data-backed platform for college basketball picks.
  • The College Basketball Experience - Mentioned in relation to Colby Dant.
  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Mentioned as a data source.
  • NFL (National Football League) - Mentioned in discussions about college football playoffs.
  • New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team for performance analysis.
  • CBS - Mentioned in relation to college football and the Big Ten.
  • Fox - Mentioned in relation to college football and the Big Ten.
  • JMU - Mentioned in discussions about college football playoffs.
  • Tennessee - Mentioned in discussions about college football.
  • Ohio State - Mentioned in discussions about college football.
  • Texas - Mentioned in discussions about college football.
  • Clemson - Mentioned in discussions about college football.
  • BYU - Mentioned in discussions about college football.
  • Vanderbilt - Mentioned in discussions about college football.
  • Indiana - Mentioned in discussions about college football.
  • Two Lane - Mentioned in discussions about college football.
  • SEC (Southeastern Conference) - Mentioned in relation to college football rankings and games.
  • Big Ten - Mentioned in relation to college football.
  • Big 12 - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Wichita State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Michigan State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Duke - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Xavier - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Cincinnati - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Louisville - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Boise State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • UMKC Kangaroos - Mentioned as an upcoming opponent for Oklahoma State and Nebraska.
  • Georgia - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Eastern Michigan - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Butler - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Hoosiers - Mentioned in relation to Hinkle Fieldhouse.
  • Boise State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Memphis - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Baylor - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Old Miss - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Torvik - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Nebraska - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Wisconsin - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Illinois - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Team Europe - Mentioned in relation to Illinois basketball.
  • UMKC Kangaroos - Mentioned as an upcoming opponent for Nebraska.
  • Kansas - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • North Carolina State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Liberty - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • VCU - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Seton Hall - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Texas Longhorns - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Auburn - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Arizona State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • UCLA - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Santa Clara - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • G League - Mentioned in relation to Santa Clara's recruitment.
  • Arizona State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Las Vegas Aces - Mentioned as playing in Henderson, Nevada.
  • Broncos - Mentioned in relation to Paul.
  • Money Team - Mentioned in relation to Paul.
  • Ball State - Mentioned in relation to "Testicle Tech."
  • Gonzaga - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Kentucky - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Nichols - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Valpo - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Eastern Illinois - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Loyola Maryland - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Greyhounds - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Tennessee Tech - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • North Carolina Central - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Louisville - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Michigan State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Carolina - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • West Virginia - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Ohio State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Mick's - Mentioned in relation to finals week.
  • Steve's Tacos - Mentioned in relation to Mac.
  • John's Tacos - Mentioned in relation to Mac.
  • UBC - Mentioned in relation to a foul call.
  • TCU - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • SMU - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • LSU - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference) - Mentioned in relation to college basketball conference rankings.
  • Florida Gulf Coast - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • The Rock - Mentioned as the nickname for the Prudential Center.
  • Penn Station (Newark) - Mentioned in relation to the Prudential Center.
  • Maui - Mentioned in relation to a college basketball tournament.
  • USC - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Kansas State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • MSG - Mentioned in relation to Seton Hall's home games.
  • South Orange - Mentioned as the location of Seton Hall's campus gym.
  • Michigan - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Maryland - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Villanova - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Baton Rouge - Mentioned as a location for a college basketball game.
  • New Orleans - Mentioned as the location for a college basketball game.
  • Smoothie King Center - Mentioned as a venue in New Orleans.
  • The Smoothie King Center - Mentioned as a venue in New Orleans.
  • The Big 12 - Mentioned in relation to college basketball conference rankings.
  • The ACC - Mentioned in relation to college basketball conference rankings.
  • The SEC - Mentioned in relation to college basketball conference rankings.
  • The Big East - Mentioned in relation to college basketball conference rankings.
  • Arizona - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • UConn - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Florida - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Purdue - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • San Diego State - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Utah - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Salt Lake City - Mentioned as the location for a college basketball game.
  • Delta Center - Mentioned as a venue in Salt Lake City.
  • The Jazz - Mentioned as playing at the Delta Center.
  • BYU - Mentioned in relation to college sports investment.
  • Wall Street - Mentioned in relation to private equity investment.
  • Saudi - Mentioned in relation to investment.
  • Chris Beard - Mentioned as the coach of Ole Miss.
  • Jans - Mentioned in relation to Mississippi State's scoring.
  • UCLA - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Washington - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • Zags - Mentioned in relation to college basketball.
  • The Money Team - Mention

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