College Football Playoff: Strategic Tensions and Evolving Power Dynamics
TL;DR
- Ohio State's red zone struggles, particularly under Ryan Day's insistence on running the ball, present Miami an opportunity to stay competitive despite being underdogs.
- Miami's offensive success correlates with lower passing attempt games, suggesting a strategic advantage in limiting Carson Beck's throws to manage risk.
- Texas Tech's formidable defense, especially its front seven, poses a significant challenge to Oregon's offense, potentially making it the best matchup of the playoff round.
- Alabama's historical dominance and tendency to crush "young dreams" suggest a potential repeat performance against Indiana, despite Indiana's promising future and strong season.
- Pete Golding's coaching philosophy, characterized by a refusal to change and a reliance on existing methods, raises questions about his readiness for a head coaching role.
- Old Miss faces unique management challenges in the playoffs due to Lane Kiffin's departure, potentially impacting their performance against a prepared Georgia team.
Deep Dive
The second round of the College Football Playoff presents a compelling slate of games where established powers face formidable challengers, highlighting a shift in the landscape of college football. While traditional powerhouses like Ohio State and Alabama remain favorites, the emergence of teams like Miami, Oregon, and Indiana, fueled by significant investments in their programs, demonstrates the evolving nature of competitive balance. This season's playoff is not just about the teams currently at the top, but also about the future trajectory of programs that have strategically allocated resources to compete at the highest level.
The matchup between Miami and Ohio State underscores a critical strategic tension: Ohio State's offensive struggles in the red zone, particularly their insistence on running the ball despite superior passing options, could provide Miami an opening. This is compounded by Miami's own offensive tendencies, which have shown a correlation between lower passing attempts and wins, suggesting a preference for a more conservative, athlete-driven approach. The financial backing of Miami's quarterback, Carson Beck, is noted, but his propensity for interceptions is a significant vulnerability against a strong Ohio State defense, creating a clear trade-off between offensive potential and turnover risk.
Similarly, the Oregon-Texas Tech game in the Orange Bowl pits two teams that have significantly increased their financial investment in football. While both are now characterized by substantial spending, the narrative suggests that Oregon is closer to shedding the label of a "big spender" due to its longer history of doing so, whereas Texas Tech is in the early stages of this transformation. The game's appeal lies in the strong Texas Tech defense facing Oregon's potentially top-ranked quarterback, Dante Moore, presenting a classic matchup of defensive prowess against offensive talent.
The Rose Bowl featuring Alabama and Indiana offers a stark contrast between established dominance and emergent promise. Indiana, having achieved a historic Big Ten Championship and demonstrated an ability to win in tough road environments against strong opponents like Oregon, represents the "future" with a more dynamic offense and a versatile defense. Alabama, conversely, embodies the "past," characterized by its consistent ability to crush opponents' dreams and maintain its historical dominance. The betting line favoring Indiana, the "utopia," over Alabama, the "nightmare," reflects a belief in this future, yet the historical precedent of Alabama's consistent crushing of young dreams introduces a significant tension between potential and proven performance.
Finally, the Sugar Bowl between Ole Miss and Georgia highlights the challenges of coaching transitions and the unique pressures of the expanded playoff format. Ole Miss faces an extended period without its former coach, Lane Kiffin, who has a history of being fired during playoff runs, creating uncertainty about leadership. Georgia, while not necessarily needing to win but rather to impose its physicality, presents a formidable opponent. The discussion around Ole Miss's potential success hinges on whether they can overcome the lack of traditional leadership structures by embracing a "vibes" approach, a stark contrast to Georgia's established, almost punishing, methodology. The narrative around Kiffin's trajectory suggests a pattern of high-stakes exits, raising questions about his future coaching moves.
Action Items
- Audit Ohio State's red zone offense: Identify 3 specific play types that stall and propose 2 alternative strategies for goal-line situations.
- Track Miami's passing attempts: For 5-10 games, analyze correlation between pass attempts over 35 and game outcomes to inform offensive strategy.
- Measure Texas Tech's defensive line impact: Quantify pressure rates and tackles for loss across 3-5 games to assess effectiveness against Oregon's offense.
- Evaluate Indiana's offensive and defensive performance: For 3-5 games, compare metrics against Alabama's to identify key areas for potential advantage.
- Analyze Ole Miss's leadership structure: For 3-5 games, assess the impact of new coaching staff on team performance and decision-making.
Key Quotes
"Ohio State's difficulties in the red zone, especially for a team that has as many offensive weapons, if you wonder where Ryan Day's kind of bullheaded insistence on running the ball when they clearly have much better options went, it went between the 10-yard line and the goal line whenever that offense gets in there and is driving for some reason they get a bit stagnant."
The author argues that Ohio State's offense struggles to convert in the red zone, even with numerous talented receivers. This suggests a potential tactical inflexibility in their play-calling, specifically Ryan Day's preference for running the ball in crucial scoring situations.
"I like how you make that sound supportive. I have, I listen, I support Carson Beck because I support quarterbacks who throw a lot of picks. I do. I think if you look through Miami's passing log for the year, came by game, and let's take Bethune-Cookman out and just look at the FBS opponents, you will notice an interesting trend: any game where they stay under 35 pass attempts, they win."
The speaker expresses a humorous preference for quarterbacks who throw many interceptions, using Carson Beck as an example. They then present a statistical observation that Miami's success correlates with a lower number of pass attempts, suggesting a potential strategy for the team.
"But you're allowed to say like Alabama's here and you don't have to say they spent a lot of money, so like I guess Oregon is like almost kind of at the point where you don't have to mention that they spend a lot of money. So you know, apparently that's like 20 years you have to go through, but they're still not quite there, right?"
The speaker discusses the perception of spending in college football, noting that Alabama is no longer highlighted for its financial investment. They suggest that Oregon is approaching a similar status, where their spending is less of a defining characteristic, but Texas Tech, in its first year of significant spending, still requires this context.
"But the past tells me that won't happen. It says that Alabama will do the thing it always does and it will crush young dreams and it will crush exciting new changes and it will take a wonderful story and poop all over it. That's what that's what it will do."
The author expresses a pessimistic view of Alabama's historical performance, predicting they will defeat Indiana. The author believes Alabama's consistent success involves crushing the hopes of underdog teams and spoiling compelling narratives.
"I think the gong just played us out. I think that's all we're going to say about this game. I did, I had to wait one thing I wanted to say that was certainly the attempt, which is this: that in a lab, Dr. Saban made the perfect defensive coordinator and assistant for all time. He put together all of his knowledge and his wisdom into the statistically ideal body and voice of a southern football assistant."
The speaker dismisses the Ole Miss vs. Georgia game as less essential because they have already played. They then transition to a hypothetical scenario where Nick Saban created the "perfect" defensive coordinator, implying that Kirby Smart's defensive success is a result of this calculated creation.
"But the past tells me that won't happen. It says that Alabama will do the thing it always does and it will crush young dreams and it will crush exciting new changes and it will take a wonderful story and poop all over it. That's what that's what it will do."
The author expresses a pessimistic view of Alabama's historical performance, predicting they will defeat Indiana. The author believes Alabama's consistent success involves crushing the hopes of underdog teams and spoiling compelling narratives.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "Pursued by Bear" by Colin McLaughlin - Mentioned as the name of McLaughlin's wine.
Articles & Papers
- "The Super Soldier Program" - Discussed as a metaphor for the creation of defensive coordinators.
People
- Colin McLaughlin - Mentioned as having his own wine called "Pursued by Bear."
- Caleb Downs - Mentioned as part of the Ohio State defense.
- Carson Beck - Mentioned as the quarterback for Miami.
- Dante Moore - Mentioned as a potential number one pick and quarterback for Oregon.
- Hady's Burgers - Mentioned as a reference point for Pete Golding's perceived "Fresnovian" nature.
- Kirby Smart - Mentioned as the creator of the "Super Soldier Program" for defensive coordinators.
- Lane Kiffin - Mentioned in relation to Old Miss's coaching situation and past firings.
- Mario Cristobal - Mentioned in relation to Miami's offensive strategy.
- Pete Golding - Mentioned as a defensive coordinator and in relation to his coaching philosophy.
- Ryan Day - Mentioned as the coach of Ohio State and his offensive tendencies.
- Steve Rogers - Mentioned as a creation of Kirby Smart, representing an ideal defensive coordinator.
Organizations & Institutions
- Fresno State - Mentioned in relation to Pete Golding's perceived coaching history.
- Indiana - Mentioned as a team playing in the Rose Bowl against Alabama.
- LSU - Mentioned as a potential future coaching destination for Lane Kiffin.
- Miami - Mentioned as a team playing in the College Football Playoff.
- New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team for performance analysis.
- Old Miss - Mentioned as a team playing in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia.
- Oregon - Mentioned as a team playing in the Orange Bowl against Texas Tech.
- Ohio State - Mentioned as a team playing in the College Football Playoff.
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Mentioned as a data source for player grading.
- Texas A&M - Mentioned in relation to Miami's passing attempts.
- Texas Tech - Mentioned as a team playing in the Orange Bowl against Oregon.
- The Cotton Bowl - Mentioned as a location for a playoff game.
- The Orange Bowl - Mentioned as a location for a playoff game.
- The Rose Bowl - Mentioned as a location for a playoff game between Indiana and Alabama.
- The Sugar Bowl - Mentioned as a location for a playoff game between Old Miss and Georgia.
- Utsa - Mentioned as a geographical reference point for Pete Golding's coaching history.
Other Resources
- "The Super Soldier Program" - Mentioned as a metaphor for the creation of defensive coordinators.
- "Vibes" - Mentioned as a potential approach for Old Miss's team management.
- Koala Mindset - Mentioned as a potential approach for Old Miss's team management.