NFL Week 16: Playoff Picture, Coaching Changes, and Surprise Teams

Pushing the Pile: A CBS Sports NFL Podcast · December 23, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

The 49ers' strong performance, despite injuries, positions them with a significant chance (27%) to secure the NFC's top seed, making their upcoming games crucial for playoff advantage.
The Buccaneers' late-season struggles suggest a high probability of a coaching change, irrespective of playoff outcomes, indicating a potential strategic shift for the franchise.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are identified as the biggest surprise of the season, with Liam Coen's impact on Trevor Lawrence's performance highlighting a successful coaching turnaround.
The Carolina Panthers' unexpected 8-7 record and playoff contention, driven by factors other than Bryce Young's elite play, represent the most surprising storyline of the year.
The NFC West division is exceptionally competitive, with three teams vying for the division title and a strong chance of producing a Super Bowl contender due to their current form and coaching.
Malik Willis is considered the most in-demand free agent quarterback due to his demonstrated ability to capitalize on opportunities and his exceptional physical tools, suggesting a potential high-end starter role.
The Kansas City Chiefs' current season inconsistency, marked by a lack of a strong run game and offensive struggles, indicates a need for significant retooling and a potential departure from their dynasty status.

Deep Dive

The current NFL playoff picture, as of Week 16, reveals a landscape with several teams solidifying their positions while others face uncertainty, particularly concerning the top seeds and wild card spots. This situation underscores the league's parity and the critical importance of late-season performance, with potential implications for team strategies, player evaluations, and coaching decisions heading into the offseason.

In the AFC, the Broncos, Patriots, and Jaguars have clinched playoff berths, with the Steelers also in a strong position to secure a spot and potentially win their division. The Chargers and Bills have also secured wild card entries. The Colts remain on the outside looking in, with a slim chance of making the postseason. This established order suggests that teams already in have a strategic advantage in managing their remaining games, focusing on health and momentum rather than desperation. For teams like the Colts, the focus shifts to evaluating their current roster and planning for offseason improvements to contend next year.

The NFC playoff picture shows more intrigue, with the Seahawks, Bears, and Eagles having clinched spots, though the Eagles are the only team to have secured their division. The Panthers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Rams, and Packers are in contention for the remaining spots. The 49ers, in particular, have a strong chance at the NFC's top seed, highlighting their mid-season resurgence. This division-wide competition indicates that teams like the Buccaneers and Panthers, despite having pieces in place, need to address fundamental issues to sustain success, potentially leading to significant coaching or personnel changes. The competition within the NFC West, with multiple teams vying for the division title and a high seed, suggests that the conference's top contenders are battle-tested, which could translate to a more robust playoff run for the eventual champion.

The discussion around player performance and potential awards, such as Offensive Rookie of the Year, reveals a narrative where individual success is often tied to scheme and opportunity. For instance, Tyler Shuck's strong performance is attributed partly to Kellen Moore's offense, underscoring how coaching and system design can elevate a player's output. Conversely, the debate over T.J. Hockenson's candidacy highlights the challenge of evaluating players in less-than-ideal team situations. This emphasizes that while individual talent is crucial, its manifestation and recognition are heavily influenced by the surrounding context.

Finally, the conversations around potential coaching changes, such as with the Buccaneers, and the evaluation of college coaches for NFL roles, like Curt Cignetti, point to the league's constant cycle of assessment and reinvention. The emphasis on offensive-minded coaches and the need for defensive improvements in teams like the Cowboys and Commanders illustrate a league-wide trend focused on building balanced, championship-caliber rosters. This continuous evaluation suggests that teams are always looking for an edge, whether through player development, schematic innovation, or strategic coaching hires, to gain a competitive advantage in an increasingly parity-driven NFL.

Action Items

Audit offensive line performance: For 3-5 teams, analyze pass block win rates and run block success metrics to identify systemic weaknesses.
Track defensive pressure rates: For 3-5 teams, measure pressure percentage on opposing quarterbacks to identify teams struggling to generate sacks.
Measure offensive line continuity: For 3-5 teams, calculate the percentage of games with the same starting offensive line to assess team stability.
Analyze fourth down conversion strategy: For 3-5 teams, compare fourth down attempt rates and success rates to identify coaching tendencies.

Key Quotes

"if a guy can go out there and his max is 45 yards and still put up damn near 300 yards in an nfl game 27 points it makes you realize that the quarterback position really is between the years 90 what you can do physically probably the other 10"

Mike Renner highlights the importance of mental acuity in the quarterback position, using Philip Rivers' performance as an example. Renner suggests that a quarterback's success is more dependent on their mental game and decision-making than their physical arm strength.

"when the majority of the offense is just quick game and get the ball out of his hands i mean you you could tell pretty fast last night that you know philip rivers was was going to be fine i mean i don't i'm not sure he got hit until the second half of that game anyway"

Ben DiNucci explains how the Colts' offensive strategy, focusing on quick passes, helped Philip Rivers perform effectively. DiNucci notes that Rivers was not under significant pressure, allowing him to execute the game plan.

"well first and foremost when's the last time we've seen three teams from the same division have 11 wins this late in the year like i feel like the nfc playoff picture is just well it's like the north last year the north was tough last year crazy so this is the west this year"

Mike Renner points out the unusual strength of the NFC West division this season. Renner notes that having three teams with 11 wins late in the year is a rare occurrence, comparing it to the toughness of the NFC North in the previous season.

"i will still say i'm i'm hesitant the offense exceptional the defense just gave up 27 to philip rivers you know like the teams will be able to score on this team it's hard to win three straight games when you can't really stop anyone and can't get pressure on anyone"

Ben DiNucci expresses hesitation about the 49ers' overall strength, despite their offensive capabilities. DiNucci specifically points to the defense's performance against Philip Rivers, suggesting that their inability to consistently stop opponents and generate pressure is a concern.

"i think for the cowboys that's that's kind of where the ball starts and stops right you've got dak you've got george pickens you've got cd lamb you've got ferguson jalen you've got all the firepower right they need on offense but just in terms of you know playing championship level football that's what it comes down to can you can you stop the run and can you play defense late in the season"

Mike Renner identifies the defense as the primary need for the Dallas Cowboys to become championship contenders. Renner acknowledges the team's offensive firepower but emphasizes that defensive strength, particularly against the run, is crucial for success in high-stakes games.

"i think for both that's obvious like it's just like they have to improve defensively you are not winning championships with these defenses as they stand right now for the cowboys i'm taking like i'm just taking a buck shot to the secondary and just saying anywhere we can get anyone we just go get it you know a quarterback safety doesn't matter nickel you need talent where you can get it"

Ben DiNucci agrees that both the Cowboys and Commanders need significant defensive improvement to be considered championship contenders. DiNucci specifically targets the secondary for the Cowboys, suggesting a need for talent acquisition at cornerback or safety.

"i think for for the lions it's kind of just getting back to the basics maybe don't go for so many fourth downs next year or you know to to end the season because i think points you know coming at a premium so much in the nfl and i think sometimes some of these coaches and offensive minds they just get you know so and when you have an offense that's so explosive and able to to pick up yards at a rate that the lions do i i understand kind of you know dan campbell's thought process and wanting to to go for and keep the offense on the field"

Mike Renner suggests that the Detroit Lions need to evolve their offensive strategy and potentially be more conservative on fourth downs. Renner understands Dan Campbell's aggressive approach but believes that defenses are adapting, and a return to fundamental play, especially in the run game, is necessary.

"i think j j mccarthy's i'm not sure if he's going to play this week or not his hand looked pretty pretty banged up on on sunday so we'll kind of see what happens there but for them i think keep keep progressing him into next year because for all intents and purposes i mean he's this dude is still all of all of a rookie and and kind of you know the first couple of games next year it's he's still not even going to be you know a full season of of games played yet"

Ben DiNucci discusses the Vikings' quarterback situation, specifically J.J. McCarthy's injury and development. DiNucci notes McCarthy's limited playing time and suggests that he is still essentially a rookie, emphasizing the need for continued progression into the next season.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Athletic" - Mentioned in relation to playoff chances for the Colts.

Articles & Papers

"The Athletic" - Mentioned in relation to playoff chances for the Colts.

People

Ben DiNucci - Former NFL QB, co-host of the podcast.
Mike Renner - Co-host of the podcast.
J.P. Acosta - Member of the Pushing the Pile team.
Philip Rivers - Former NFL QB, discussed for his performance in a recent game.
Shane Steichen - Mentioned in relation to Philip Rivers' performance.
Nick Bosa - Mentioned as a key player for the 49ers.
Fred Warner - Mentioned as a key player for the 49ers.
Mac Jones - Mentioned for his performance when Brock Purdy was out.
Brock Purdy - Mentioned for his performance in a recent game and potential for the 49ers.
Josh Allen - Mentioned in relation to the Buffalo Bills.
Bryce Young - Mentioned in relation to the Carolina Panthers.
Baker Mayfield - Mentioned in relation to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Kellen Moore - Mentioned as an example of a young offensive-minded coach and in relation to Tyler Shuck's performance.
Dan Quinn - Mentioned as an example of a coach who fizzled out.
Liam Cohen - Mentioned for his impact on the Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence.
Trevor Lawrence - Mentioned for his performance with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Sean Payton - Mentioned in relation to the Denver Broncos.
Travis Hunter - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars.
Jacoby Myers - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars.
Stafford - Mentioned in relation to the Rams and MVP consideration.
Purdy - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers.
Darnold - Mentioned in relation to the Rams.
Tyler Shuck - Mentioned as a candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Spencer Rattler - Mentioned in relation to Tyler Shuck's opportunity.
Landry Clan - Mentioned as a quarterback coach in Dallas.
Justin Fields - Mentioned as a player who trained with Quincy Avery.
Cam Newton - Mentioned as a physical comparison for Malik Willis.
Ashton Jenty - Mentioned as a potential competitor for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
TJ Hockenson - Mentioned as a candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Shador - Mentioned in relation to Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Malik Willis - Mentioned as a potential free agent quarterback and for his performance.
Daniel Jones - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Russell Wilson - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Marcus Mariota - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Kenny Pickett - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Trey Lance - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Sam Howell - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Mitch Trubisky - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Jimmy Garoppolo - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Tyrod Taylor - Listed as a free agent quarterback.
Quincy Avery - Mentioned as a trainer for several quarterbacks.
Matt LaFleur - Mentioned in relation to Malik Willis and Jordan Love.
Jordan Love - Mentioned in relation to Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers.
Curt Cignetti - Former college coach, discussed as a potential NFL head coaching candidate.
Mike Tomlin - Mentioned in relation to coaching stability.
Baker - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers.
Jaden Daniels - Mentioned in relation to the Commanders.
Marcus Lattimore - Mentioned in relation to the Commanders' defense.
Bobby Wagner - Mentioned in relation to the Commanders' defense.
Debo Samuel - Mentioned in relation to the Commanders' offense.
Jamir Gibbs - Mentioned in relation to the Lions' run game.
Montgomery - Mentioned in relation to the Lions' run game.
Goff - Mentioned in relation to the Lions' offense.
A.J. McNeal - Mentioned in relation to the Lions' pass rush.
Hutchinson - Mentioned in relation to the Lions' pass rush.
Justin Jefferson - Mentioned in relation to the Vikings' production.
JJ McCarthy - Mentioned in relation to the Vikings' quarterback situation.
Carson Wentz - Mentioned in relation to the Vikings' quarterback situation.
Max Brosmer - Mentioned in relation to the Vikings' quarterback situation.
Patrick Mahomes - Mentioned in relation to the Chiefs' struggles.
Andy Reid - Mentioned in relation to the Chiefs' potential revamp.
Kelsey - Mentioned in relation to the Chiefs' potential personnel changes.
Spags - Mentioned in relation to the Chiefs' defense.
Michael Pittman - Mentioned as an example of a possession wide receiver.

Organizations & Institutions

CBS Sports - Mentioned as the source of the podcast.
NFL (National Football League) - Primary subject of discussion.
49ers - Mentioned in relation to playoff seeding and performance.
Colts - Mentioned in relation to playoff chances.
Texans - Mentioned in relation to playoff seeding.
Buffalo Bills - Mentioned in relation to playoff seeding.
Chargers - Mentioned in relation to playoff seeding.
Bucs - Mentioned in relation to coaching changes and playoff contention.
Seahawks - Mentioned in relation to playoff seeding and NFC West championship.
Bears - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers' upcoming game.
Eagles - Mentioned in relation to their past Super Bowl win and defensive investment.
Panthers - Mentioned in relation to playoff contention and controlling their own destiny.
Rams - Mentioned in relation to playoff contention and potential Super Bowl contenders.
Packers - Mentioned in relation to playoff contention.
Lions - Mentioned in relation to playoff contention and Christmas Day game.
Steelers - Mentioned in relation to playoff contention and a past game against the Lions.
Jaguars - Mentioned as a surprise team and in relation to their head coach.
Cowboys - Mentioned in relation to their needs for contention and a Christmas Day game.
Commanders - Mentioned in relation to their needs for contention and a Christmas Day game.
Vikings - Mentioned in relation to their offensive line issues and upcoming game.
Broncos - Mentioned in relation to playoff seeding and a Christmas Day game.
Chiefs - Mentioned in relation to their struggles and a Christmas Day game.
Audacy - Mentioned as a platform where the podcast is available.
Apple Podcasts - Mentioned as a platform where the podcast is available.
Spotify - Mentioned as a platform where the podcast is available.
Twitter - Mentioned in relation to a tweet about running backs.
Nationwide - Mentioned as a sponsor.
US Soccer - Mentioned as a partner of Marriott Bonvoy.
Springhill Suites - Mentioned as part of Marriott Bonvoy.
James Madison - Mentioned in relation to Curt Cignetti's coaching.
Indiana - Mentioned in relation to Curt Cignetti's coaching.
Netflix - Mentioned in relation to the Christmas Day slate of games.
Sutton Bank - Mentioned in relation to Cash App.
Block Inc. - Mentioned in relation to Cash App.
FDIC - Mentioned in relation to Cash App.
FDIC - Mentioned in relation to Cash App.
FDIC - Mentioned in relation to Cash App.
FDIC - Mentioned in relation to Cash App.
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