Binge Drops Increase Churn; Drip Models Boost Retention - Episode Hero Image

Binge Drops Increase Churn; Drip Models Boost Retention

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TL;DR

  • Binge-dropping entire seasons of content leads to higher subscriber churn as viewers exhaust available material quickly and cancel subscriptions until new content is released.
  • Weekly "drip" release models significantly reduce subscriber churn by 50% compared to binge drops, encouraging longer subscription periods and content discovery.
  • The "drip" model fosters greater engagement by requiring weekly visits to the platform, leading subscribers to discover and engage with other available content.
  • While hardcore bingers dislike weekly releases, the majority of non-binge viewers benefit from drip models, suggesting a strategic need for hybrid release strategies.
  • Hybrid release models, like dropping initial episodes then switching to weekly, can create eventized viewing experiences and leverage established fanbases for future seasons.
  • Netflix may be committed to binge drops to convert more viewers into bingers, aiming to dominate the market if the entire audience retrains to this consumption habit.

Deep Dive

The strategy of releasing entire seasons of television shows at once, known as "binge dropping," was instrumental in Netflix's rise from a DVD-by-mail service to a dominant media conglomerate. While this model has fueled immense growth and consumer engagement, new research suggests it may be contributing to subscriber churn and that a more staggered release, or "drip" model, could be more effective for retaining customers, indicating a potential shift in streaming content distribution.

The binge-drop model, popularized by Netflix, fundamentally altered television consumption habits. Early successes with shows like Breaking Bad, where a significant portion of viewership occurred through Netflix's platform, demonstrated the power of on-demand access. This led to the seismic shift with House of Cards in 2013, where Netflix released all 13 episodes simultaneously, challenging the traditional weekly "appointment viewing" model. This gambit was so successful it positioned Netflix as a major player capable of acquiring vast content libraries, even potentially buying entire studios. However, this strategy has a significant downside: it caters heavily to "binge watchers," a segment of the audience that consumes content rapidly, exhausts available material, and then cancels subscriptions, leading to high churn rates. Research indicates that while this segment is small (5-10% of viewers), their rapid consumption and subsequent churn are detrimental to long-term subscriber retention.

Conversely, academic research, particularly studies by Professor Pedro Ferreira, highlights the benefits of a "drip" model, releasing episodes weekly. In experiments conducted with various streaming platforms, shows released with a weekly cadence experienced significantly lower churn rates--up to 50% lower than those released in a binge-drop format. This is because viewers who receive content incrementally are incentivized to maintain their subscriptions to continue watching the series. Furthermore, the repeated weekly engagement with a platform can lead these viewers to discover other content, increasing overall platform utilization and loyalty. This suggests that for a significant portion of the audience, a drip model fosters deeper engagement and sustained subscription.

The industry is now navigating a complex landscape where neither extreme model appears optimal. Hybrid approaches are emerging, such as Amazon's strategy of binge-dropping the first season of a show like The Summer I Turned Pretty to build initial momentum and then reverting to a weekly drip for subsequent seasons to capitalize on established fandom. Similarly, shows like Andor have experimented with releasing episodes in small arcs. While Netflix publicly maintains that binge drops offer consumer choice and are what audiences desire, its continued commitment to this model, even for highly anticipated shows like Stranger Things, may indicate a long-term strategy to retrain audiences into becoming habitual bingers. If Netflix can successfully cultivate a population of dedicated binge-watchers, it solidifies its position as the primary provider for this consumption style, potentially making it the only platform with sufficient content to retain them in the long run. The implication is that while the binge-drop built Netflix, the future of subscriber retention might lie in a more nuanced, drip-centric approach, or at least a strategic blend of both models tailored to specific content and audiences.

Action Items

  • Audit content release strategy: Analyze churn rates for 3-5 recent shows released via "drop" versus "drip" models to identify optimal release patterns.
  • Measure binge watcher impact: Quantify the percentage of subscribers who are "hardcore bingers" (consuming 5+ hours weekly) to assess their contribution to churn.
  • Develop hybrid release playbook: Define criteria for selecting between "drop" and "drip" models for new shows based on audience engagement and content type.
  • Track subscriber retention by release model: For 2-3 new series, measure churn rates for audiences receiving weekly episodes versus full season drops.

Key Quotes

"The strategy of releasing an entire season at the same time has been key to taking Netflix from a little startup that used to lend us DVDs in the mail ... to a company so big and powerful, it is maybe going to buy Warner Brothers and own Bugs Bunny and Tony Soprano and the Harry Potter movies."

This quote highlights the transformative impact of Netflix's "binge drop" strategy. The author argues that this approach was instrumental in Netflix's growth from a DVD rental service to a media giant capable of acquiring major entertainment assets.


"i think netflix kept us on the air not only are we standing up here with the emmy i don't think our show would have even lasted really"

This statement, attributed to show creator Vince Gilligan, underscores the critical role Netflix played in the survival of "Breaking Bad." The author uses this to illustrate how Netflix's acquisition and promotion of existing shows, enabling binge-watching, could significantly impact a show's longevity.


"instead of releasing a new episode every week the streaming service is giving subscribers entire season of house of cards all at once yours evers is a spokesman at netflix and he says ceo reed hastings believes the traditional tv model doesn't reflect modern viewing habits as reed hastings wrote imagine if books were always released one chapter per week but suddenly somebody flips a switch and you can read the whole book at your own pace that's the future of television and that's what we call internet tv"

This quote captures the revolutionary nature of Netflix's decision to release the entire first season of "House of Cards" at once. The author points out Reed Hastings' comparison to reading an entire book, framing this as the dawn of "internet TV" and a departure from traditional weekly episode releases.


"what we found was that the people in this segment were subscribing the product 50 more than everybody else 50 more 50 more than everybody else so meaning they would continue the subscription at a at a rate that was 50 higher than everyone else and uh everyone else being the people that were given all episodes of the shows at the same time"

Professor Pedro Ferreira explains the findings of his research, indicating that a weekly release model ("drip") led to significantly lower churn rates compared to binge-dropping entire seasons. The author highlights that this suggests a weekly release strategy can retain subscribers at a much higher rate.


"the thing about the end of appointment viewing is kind of prescient the thing about you can watch these in any order is really strange you could watch them in any order i mean you can it's a free country but like do whatever you want but even the the interface like just that you go chronologically like it's not a choose your own adventure you know it's not supposed to be something like formal experiment in like television"

This quote reflects on the commentary surrounding the release of "House of Cards." The author notes the prescient observation about the end of "appointment viewing" and the strangeness of the idea that viewers could watch episodes in any order, while also pointing out that the interface still guided viewers chronologically.


"it's possible that netflix is playing a longer game here offering the possibility to binge to everyone also has probably this goal of converting more and more of us into bingers and it takes time but if every one of us becomes a binger and you're the platform that is providing binges then guess where people are going to go"

Pedro Ferreira speculates on Netflix's continued commitment to the binge model. The author interprets this as a long-term strategy to cultivate a generation of binge-watchers, positioning Netflix as the primary provider for this viewing habit and thus securing future subscriber loyalty.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "Planet Money book" - Mentioned as available for pre-order.

Research & Studies

  • Research on binge watching (SSRN) - Referenced as data informing the discussion on binge watching's benefits and drawbacks.
  • Study on binge watchers and churn (Institution not named) - Discussed as finding that binge watchers consume content rapidly, cancel subscriptions, and that this churn is a significant concern for streaming services.
  • Study on release schedules and churn (International telecom company) - Referenced for finding that weekly release schedules (drip model) resulted in significantly lower churn rates compared to binge drops, particularly for non-hardcore bingers.

People

  • Vince Gilligan - Show creator credited with stating Netflix kept Breaking Bad on the air.
  • Reed Hastings - CEO of Netflix, quoted on the future of television being akin to reading an entire book at once.
  • Pedro Ferreira - Professor at Carnegie Mellon who studies how information and businesses affect consumers, and conducted research on the economics of streaming release strategies.
  • Miguel Godinho de Matos - Regular co-author with Pedro Ferreira on research into streaming release strategies.
  • Samir Mamadoussine - Co-author with Pedro Ferreira on research into streaming release strategies.
  • Willa Rubin - Producer of the episode.
  • Meg Cramer - Editor of the episode.
  • Dania Suleman - Fact-checker for the episode.
  • Alex Goldmark - Executive producer of the episode.
  • Jenny Han - Author of the Summer I Turned Pretty YA romance series and showrunner.
  • Jude Law - Actor mentioned in relation to a meme about The Young Pope.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Netflix - Discussed as a major streaming service that pioneered the binge-drop model and its impact on the television industry.
  • Warner Brothers - Mentioned as a company Netflix might acquire.
  • HBO - Mentioned as the network that aired Industry.
  • AMC - Mentioned as the network where Breaking Bad originally premiered.
  • Apple - Mentioned as an NPR funder and the network where Vince Gilligan's new show premiered.
  • Amazon - Mentioned as an NPR funder and the platform for The Summer I Turned Pretty.
  • NPR - The podcast's parent organization.
  • Capital One - Sponsor of the podcast.
  • Schwab - Sponsor of the podcast.
  • International Rescue Committee (IRC) - Sponsor of the podcast.
  • Odoo - Sponsor of the podcast.
  • Superhuman - Sponsor of the podcast.
  • Capella University - Sponsor of the podcast.
  • Vanta - Sponsor of the podcast.

Websites & Online Resources

  • SSRN - Source for research on binge watching.
  • capitalone.com - Website for Capital One.
  • capitalone.com/subscriptions - Website for Capital One subscription management.
  • capitalone.com - Website for Capital One.
  • capitalone.com/travel - Website for Capital One Venture X card.
  • rescue.org - Website for the International Rescue Committee.
  • odoo.com - Website for Odoo.
  • superhuman.com/podcast - Website for Superhuman.
  • capella.edu - Website for Capella University.
  • vanta.com - Website for Vanta.
  • npr.org/about-npr/179878450/privacy-policy - NPR Privacy Policy.
  • podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Website for podcast ad choices.

Podcasts & Audio

  • Planet Money - The podcast producing this episode.
  • Planet Money's Indicator - A related podcast co-hosted by Waleen Wong.

Other Resources

  • Binge drop - A strategy of releasing entire seasons of television shows at once.
  • Drip model - A strategy of releasing television episodes weekly.
  • Churn - The rate at which subscribers quit a service.
  • Internet TV - A term used to describe the future of television as envisioned by Reed Hastings.
  • Appointment viewing - The traditional model of watching television at a scheduled time.
  • Hybrid release model - A strategy that combines elements of binge drops and drip models.

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