Journalists Should Kill More Stories; Market Narratives Face Scrutiny

Key Quotes

"We have killed episodes in the past... in fact, there's there's kind of a funny story where we did an episode it really wasn't going very well the guest seemed very nervous and just sort of like not at his top performance and in the end after we recorded we told him you know we're just going to kill this episode and he was actually really happy about that because he felt he hadn't done his best work either."

The hosts discuss the rare instances where they have decided not to release a recorded podcast episode. This quote highlights their commitment to quality, even if it means discarding an entire episode. The hosts explain that they have done this when a guest was not performing well, and in one case, the guest was relieved because they also felt they hadn't delivered their best work.

"I actually think journalists should kill a lot more stories we should be more selective and if you think about the German word for redactor redacteur it sounds a lot like redact right which gives you you know some sense of what editors are supposed to be doing which is taking away as opposed to adding."

This quote emphasizes the importance of editorial discretion and the principle of "less is more" in journalism. The speaker argues that journalists should be more selective about what they publish, drawing a parallel between the German word for editor ("Redakteur") and the act of "redacting" or removing content. This suggests that a key role of an editor is to refine and distill information, rather than simply adding to it.

"My guess is that there are other services that people in finance provide other than high quality security selection that whether it's like okay I don't really like know how to manage risk or whatever it is or I'm anxious about the thought of investing all kinds of things I guess you know there probably are people who are able to obtain information that maybe counts as alpha it probably exists I don't know I remain unsatisfied."

The speaker expresses uncertainty about how financial professionals accumulate wealth, particularly in the context of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). The speaker suggests that beyond just selecting good securities, finance professionals might offer other valuable services like risk management or alleviating investor anxiety. However, the speaker remains unsatisfied with this explanation, indicating a lingering question about the true drivers of wealth accumulation in finance.

"I keep describing this as the coffee pod theory of AI, which is some tech companies are choosing to basically produce the world's most expensive sophisticated cappuccino machine and they're saying that you know it produces the best coffee that you've ever had and crucially what they're doing is targeting a market for this machine let's say it costs like $2,000 that's basically the entire world and I'm I'm not sure that approach works."

This quote introduces an analogy to explain different strategies in the AI market. The speaker compares some tech companies to those selling expensive, high-end "cappuccino machines" (AI products) targeting a broad market, questioning the viability of this approach. This "coffee pod theory" suggests that the value created by AI might not necessarily accrue to the companies developing the most complex or expensive solutions.

"I am kind of surprised about how well anchored market-based expectations for inflation have been because there is I think pretty legitimate there's two things going on one is you know the fed hasn't missed its inflation target for years and so there's perhaps reasons to think that just already that the fed hasn't been as serious about 2% as it had been before but then also I do think there are good reasons to think that in the future the fed will not have the same capacity to target stable prices the way it used to due to politization due to the general sort of like populist trend in politics."

The speaker expresses surprise at the stability of market-based inflation expectations, given potential future challenges to the Federal Reserve's ability to control prices. The speaker points to two main reasons for this surprise: the Fed's past performance and the increasing politicization of central banking. This suggests a disconnect between current market sentiment and potential future economic realities regarding inflation.

"My favorite was probably my Shivan Dragon. I liked the idea of dragons and it had really nice art and at the time it was a really valuable and powerful card by the way I don't know if I'm pronouncing Shivan right whether it's Shivan or or Shy-van like we we didn't have a lot of pronunciation guides when I was in middle school and I also just don't remember how people were saying these things it was like 30 years ago."

The speaker shares a personal anecdote about their favorite Magic: The Gathering card, the Shivan Dragon. This quote reveals a fondness for the card due to its dragon imagery, art, and perceived power at the time. The speaker also humorously notes the uncertainty around the pronunciation of "Shivan," reflecting on the lack of resources for such details during their childhood.