2026: National Reflection, Economic Pressure, and AI's Energy Battleground

Morning Brew Daily · January 02, 2026 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title: 2026 Lookahead: World Cup, Moon Travel, Grand Theft Auto VI and More

TL;DR

The US semiquincentennial celebration in 2026 will drive significant interest in American history, benefiting history media and potentially sparking competition among cities like Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and New York for prominence.
Affordability concerns, particularly rising costs of groceries and utilities, will be the dominant issue in 2026 midterm elections, potentially leading to incumbents losing vote share as voters seek relief.
AI's substantial electricity demands will become a major political battleground in 2026, influencing elections as voters and politicians grapple with rising energy costs and data center expansion.
The 2026 World Cup, expanded to 48 teams and hosted across North America, presents significant logistical challenges, particularly concerning transportation in cities like Dallas, which could overshadow the sporting event itself.
The Artemis 2 mission in 2026, aiming to establish a lunar presence, marks a renewed space race with historical significance, including the first Black and Canadian astronauts to orbit the moon.
Grand Theft Auto VI's anticipated fall 2026 release is poised to be a monumental entertainment event, potentially becoming one of the best-selling games of all time and a cultural touchstone.
TikTok's strategic shift towards prioritizing TikTok Shop may diminish its cultural influence, potentially causing it to fall out of the top 10 most downloaded apps as users seek more authentic content.

Deep Dive

In 2026, the United States will commemorate its 250th anniversary, a semiquincentennial marked by national celebrations and a significant decline in reported patriotism, while Route 66 celebrates its centennial, highlighting a cultural moment for historical landmarks. Simultaneously, affordability will dominate midterm election campaigns, fueled by widespread economic struggles, and the immense electricity demands of AI data centers will emerge as a critical battleground issue, potentially reshaping political discourse and consumer costs. These domestic flashpoints will unfold against a backdrop of major international sporting events, including the Winter Olympics and the expanded World Cup, and a renewed push for lunar exploration with NASA's Artemis 2 mission, underscoring a year of significant anniversaries, economic anxieties, and technological advancements.

The confluence of these events presents several second-order implications. The 250th anniversary, while intended to foster national pride, occurs amidst polls indicating declining patriotism, suggesting that the celebrations may serve as a catalyst for introspection on American identity and global standing rather than a simple display of unity. The competition among cities like Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and New York to host major events highlights the decentralized nature of national identity and the economic benefits tied to such celebrations, while also posing complex logistical and security challenges for crowd management. The resurgence of interest in American history, spurred by these anniversaries and potentially amplified by media like Ken Burns' documentaries and historical dramas, could lead to a boom in the history media sector, influencing cultural narratives and educational priorities.

Economically, the midterm elections' focus on affordability, exacerbated by rising costs for essentials like groceries and healthcare, suggests a strong mandate for parties promising relief, potentially leading to significant shifts in political power. This economic pressure is directly linked to the growing demand for electricity driven by AI data centers, which are projected to become a major political issue. The "new price of eggs" analogy for electricity costs underscores the potential for this issue to significantly influence voter behavior, mirroring the impact of inflation in previous elections and creating a direct tension between technological advancement and consumer affordability. This tension may manifest in local opposition to data center development, as seen in Tucson, and national policy debates around energy infrastructure and AI regulation.

Internationally, the expanded World Cup, hosted across North America, presents logistical challenges that could overshadow the sporting spectacle, particularly concerning transportation and infrastructure in less-developed host cities like Dallas. The Artemis 2 mission, while a step towards lunar presence and future Mars exploration, faces the inherent uncertainty of rocket science, with potential delays impacting the timeline for actual lunar landings. The entertainment landscape in 2026, featuring major film releases and anticipated video game launches like Grand Theft Auto VI, indicates a robust consumer demand for escapism and cultural content, with the potential for blockbuster releases to drive significant economic activity. Finally, the predictions regarding OpenAI's future, Netflix's potential acquisition of AMC, TikTok's declining influence, and Timothy Chalamet's cultural impact, while speculative, highlight underlying trends in the tech and media industries, including the sustainability of AI business models, the consolidation of media ownership, the evolving nature of social media platforms, and the growing influence of entertainment figures on broader culture.

The core takeaway is that 2026 will be a year of significant national reflection and economic pressure, shaped by historical milestones, the relentless march of AI, and a robust entertainment cycle. The intertwined issues of affordability, energy consumption, and technological progress will define domestic politics, while global events and cultural phenomena will continue to capture public attention, creating a complex and dynamic landscape for decision-makers.

Action Items

Audit AI agent usage: Monitor, govern, and implement rewind capabilities for AI agents to prevent unintended consequences (ref: Rubrik Agent Cloud).
Track electricity consumption: Measure data center electricity usage against residential equivalents to inform policy decisions regarding AI infrastructure.
Analyze election campaign impact: Correlate voter concerns about affordability with election outcomes for 3-5 key battleground states.
Evaluate media impact: Measure cultural relevance of platforms by tracking app download rankings and user engagement shifts over 6-12 months.

Key Quotes

"2026 marks 250 years since the declaration of independence was signed in 1776 and the country is going all out for its semiquincentennial throughout the year you'll find any number of major events that celebrate america's founding and history from massive fireworks displays to parades historical reenactments and an attempt at the single largest flag waving celebration."

The hosts, Neal and Toby, highlight the significance of 2026 as America's 250th anniversary. Toby explains that this semiquincentennial will be marked by numerous celebratory events across the country, designed to honor the nation's founding and history. This indicates a year focused on national pride and historical commemoration.

"The storyline that will dominate most election campaigns is affordability according to a recent political poll nearly half of all americans are struggling under the pressures of groceries utility bills healthcare housing and transportation the same poll revealed that more than a quarter of respondents said they skipped a medical checkup because of costs within the last two years."

Neal points out that affordability will be a central theme in the upcoming elections. He cites a poll indicating that a significant portion of Americans are struggling with the costs of essential goods and services, with many forced to forgo medical care due to expenses. This suggests that economic concerns will heavily influence voter sentiment.

"The other issue that will dominate this election calendar is ai namely the electricity that ai requires there's a lot of anxiety around the country over rising electricity costs and the hungry hippo data centers that are eating up all the power the typical ai data center uses as much electricity as 100 000 homes according to the international energy agency."

Toby introduces the significant role Artificial Intelligence (AI) will play in the election cycle, specifically concerning its high electricity demands. He notes widespread concern over increasing energy costs, exacerbated by data centers, which consume vast amounts of power. Toby quantifies this by stating a typical AI data center uses the electricity equivalent of 100,000 homes.

"The big 'cahuna of sporting events arrives this summer with the world cup the largest most viewed and most lucrative tournament in the world and it's going to be bigger than ever this year hosted across the three countries of north america it'll feature an expanded field of 48 teams 104 total games and plenty of trump fifa immigration political intrigue to boot."

Neal discusses the upcoming World Cup in 2026, describing it as the premier global sporting event. He emphasizes its expanded scale, hosted across North America with more teams and games than ever before. Neal also acknowledges the potential for associated political and logistical complexities surrounding the tournament.

"NASA wants to go back in 2026 the artemis 2 mission whose mandate is to establish a sustainable human presence on the moon is planned for april but there are some rumblings that it could launch as early as february if things go to plan speaking of the plan the crew will embark on a 10 day voyage to quote explore the moon for scientific discovery economic benefits and to build the foundation for the first crewed mission to mars."

Toby shifts the focus to space exploration, detailing NASA's Artemis 2 mission planned for 2026. He explains its objective is to establish a sustainable human presence on the moon and prepare for a Mars mission. Toby notes that the mission involves a 10-day voyage to explore the moon for scientific and economic purposes.

"My first prediction is openai will not exist by the end of the year I'll give you a couple of supporting data points the economics just don't make sense how can a startup continue to compete when we're talking about national scale level spending number two it just won't be able to catch up to google google has more data more money and a better model right now how can openai close the gap it can't."

Toby presents his first prediction: that OpenAI will cease to exist by the end of 2026. He bases this on the economics of startups competing with large corporations, suggesting OpenAI cannot match Google's resources, data, and superior models. Toby argues that OpenAI will be unable to bridge this gap.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Odyssey" by Christopher Nolan - Mentioned as a film adaptation of the book, with the speaker having listened to the audiobook in preparation.

Articles & Papers

"American Revolution documentary" (Ken Burns) - Mentioned as a recent release that will likely see increased interest in 2026.

People

Christopher Nolan - Mentioned as the director of the upcoming film "The Odyssey."
David Ellison - Mentioned as the owner of Paramount who tried to get Taylor Sheridan to make a show about America 250.
Devin Emery - Mentioned as the president of Morning Brew.
Emily Milliron - Mentioned as the executive producer of Morning Brew Daily.
Jeremey Hansen - Mentioned as the first Canadian astronaut to participate in a lunar mission.
Johnny Ive - Mentioned in relation to a potential hardware collaboration with OpenAI.
Ken Burns - Mentioned as the creator of a recent American Revolution documentary.
Kylie Jenner - Mentioned in a prediction about Timothy Chalamet's potential future.
Lionel Messi - Mentioned as part of the Argentinian team attempting to repeat as World Cup champions.
Masayoshi Son - Mentioned as an investor in OpenAI via Softbank.
Mike Trout - Mentioned in relation to Shohei Ohtani striking him out in the World Baseball Classic.
Mikie Sherrill - Mentioned as a governor-elect in New Jersey who promised to declare a state of emergency on utility costs.
Neil Fryman - Mentioned as a host of Morning Brew Daily.
Nvidia - Mentioned in the context of data centers in space.
Olivia Graham - Mentioned as an associate producer of Morning Brew Daily.
Olivia Lake - Mentioned as an associate producer of Morning Brew Daily.
Patriots - Mentioned as an example team for performance analysis.
PFF (Pro Football Focus) - Mentioned as a data source for player grading.
Raymond Lu - Mentioned as a producer of Morning Brew Daily.
Robert Downey Jr. - Mentioned in relation to the potential return of his character in "Avengers Doomsday."
Shohei Ohtani - Mentioned for striking out Mike Trout to seal Japan's victory in the World Baseball Classic.
Softbank - Mentioned as an investor in OpenAI.
SpaceX - Mentioned in relation to issues with its Starship rocket affecting the Artemis 3 mission.
Steve Jobs - Mentioned as a co-founder of Apple Computer.
Steve Wozniak - Mentioned as a co-founder of Apple Computer.
Toby Howell - Mentioned as a host of Morning Brew Daily.
Taylor Sheridan - Mentioned as a show creator who is moving to NBC Universal from Paramount.
Tj - Mentioned in relation to writing about life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
Timothy Chalamet - Mentioned in predictions for Time's Person of the Year, an Oscar win, and starring in "Dune."
Victor Glover - Mentioned as the first Black astronaut to fly around the moon.
Yicheng Ogu - Mentioned as the technical director of Morning Brew Daily.
Zendaya - Mentioned as an actress in the upcoming film "Robbie."

Organizations & Institutions

Amazon - Mentioned as having a data center pulled by Tucson.
Apple Computer - Mentioned as celebrating its 50-year anniversary.
Argentina - Mentioned as the defending World Cup champions.
Australia - Mentioned in relation to soccer roots.
Brazil - Mentioned as a World Cup contender.
Bridgerton - Mentioned as a TV show returning for season four.
Cisco Duo - Mentioned as a security tool that protects against phishing.
Czech Republic - Mentioned as a lovable underdog team in the World Baseball Classic.
Dune - Mentioned as a film franchise with a third installment expected.
England - Mentioned as a World Cup contender.
Euphoria - Mentioned as a TV show returning for season three.
FIFA - Mentioned in relation to the World Cup.
France - Mentioned as a World Cup contender.
Google - Mentioned as a competitor to OpenAI and in relation to data centers in space.
Grand Theft Auto VI - Mentioned as a highly anticipated video game expected in Fall 2026.
HBO - Mentioned as the network for the acclaimed show "The Pitt."
House of the Dragon - Mentioned as a Game of Thrones prequel returning for season two.
Instagram - Mentioned as a platform where culture is found and as a competitor to TikTok.
International Energy Agency - Mentioned in relation to data center electricity usage.
LinkedIn - Mentioned in the context of cultural trends spreading across platforms.
Microsoft - Mentioned as a potential entity to absorb OpenAI.
Milan Cortina - Mentioned as the host of the Winter Olympics.
Morning Brew - Mentioned as the production company of the podcast.
Morning Brew Daily - Mentioned as the podcast being discussed.
Mughal Empire - Mentioned as celebrating its 500th anniversary.
NBC - Mentioned in relation to its coverage of the Winter Olympics.
NBC Universal - Mentioned as the new network for Taylor Sheridan.
Netflix - Mentioned in predictions about buying AMC and preserving theatrical releases.
New Jersey - Mentioned in relation to Governor-elect Mikki Sherrill and utility costs.
New York - Mentioned as the media and cultural capital.
Netherlands - Mentioned as a World Cup contender.
Nhl - Mentioned in relation to players returning to Olympic squads.
OpenAI - Mentioned in predictions about its future existence and competition with Google.
Oracle - Mentioned in relation to TikTok's US operations.
Paramount - Mentioned as the former network for Taylor Sheridan's shows.
Paddington - Mentioned as an upcoming film.
Peacock - Mentioned in relation to NBC's coverage of the 2020/2024 Olympics.
Philadelphia - Mentioned as a city vying to be the epicenter of America 250 celebrations.
Rubrik - Mentioned as a sponsor offering early access to Rubrik Agent Cloud.
Rubrik Agent Cloud - Mentioned as a platform for monitoring, governing, and rewinding AI agents.
Samsung - Mentioned in relation to data centers in space.
Scruubs - Mentioned as a TV show receiving a reboot.
Spain - Mentioned as a World Cup contender.
Starship rocket - Mentioned in relation to issues affecting the Artemis 3 mission.
Tiktok - Mentioned as potentially falling out of the top 10 most downloaded apps and its focus on TikTok Shop.
Tiktok Shop - Mentioned as a feature that may be diminishing TikTok's cultural relevance.
The Pitt - Mentioned as an acclaimed HBO show about the hospital industry returning for a new season.
Toy Story 5 - Mentioned as an upcoming film.
Usa - Mentioned in relation to the World Cup and its performance expectations.
United States of America - Mentioned as celebrating its 250th birthday.
Virginia - Mentioned in relation to Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and energy bills.
Warner Brothers Discovery - Mentioned as a company Netflix might buy.
Washington D.C. - Mentioned as the actual capital of the US.
Wework - Mentioned as a company that received significant investment from Softbank.
World Baseball Classic - Mentioned as an international sporting event.
World Cup - Mentioned as the largest and most viewed sporting event, hosted across North America.
Yellowstone - Mentioned as a show created by Taylor Sheridan.

Tools & Software

Cisco Duo - Mentioned as a security tool that protects against phishing.
Rubrik Agent Cloud - Mentioned as a platform for monitoring, governing, and rewinding AI agents.
Threatlocker - Mentioned as a security tool that enforces default deny at execution.

Websites & Online Resources

carmax.com - Mentioned as a website for car shoppers.
duo.com - Mentioned as a website to learn more about Cisco Duo.
instagram.com/mbdailyshow - Mentioned as the Instagram handle for Morning Brew Daily.
morningbrew.com - Mentioned as the website for Morning Brew.
rubrik.com - Mentioned as the website to learn more about Rubrik.
threatlocker.com - Mentioned as the website to learn more about Threatlocker.

Other Resources

America 250 - Mentioned as a commission for the 250th anniversary of the United States.
America 250 commission - Mentioned as existing in each state to celebrate America's founding.
American Revolution - Mentioned as a historical period that will see renewed interest.
Artemis 2 mission - Mentioned as NASA's mission to establish a sustainable human presence on the moon.
Artemis 3 mission - Mentioned as the first crewed mission to land on the moon since 1972.
Avengers Doomsday - Mentioned as an upcoming film.
Brexit - Mentioned as celebrating its 10th anniversary.
The Declaration of Independence - Mentioned as being adopted in Philadelphia in 1776.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 - Mentioned as an upcoming film.
The Eras Tour - Mentioned as a benchmark for Timothy Chalamet's potential cultural impact.
The Inflation Election - Mentioned as a descriptor for the 2024 elections due to global inflation concerns.
The Pitt - Mentioned as an acclaimed HBO show about the hospital industry.
The Red Zone - Mentioned as a type of coverage for sports events.
The Space Race - Mentioned as heating up again.
The Winter Olympics - Mentioned as an upcoming international sporting event in Milan Cortina, Italy.
The World Baseball Classic - Mentioned as an international sporting event.
The World Cup - Mentioned as the largest and most viewed sporting event, hosted across North America.
The Year of Chalamet - Mentioned as a prediction for 2026.
US Midterm Elections - Mentioned as an event where affordability will be a dominant issue.
US Presidential Election - Mentioned in relation to the 2024 election being the largest