Instagram's 2025 Vision: Private Messaging, Video, and Creator Relationships
TL;DR
- Instagram's 2025 mission is to inspire creativity, with primary sharing via DMs and public content consumption dominated by video (Reels), reflecting a shift from broadcast sharing to private messaging and entertainment.
- Instagram's TV app launch signifies a strategic move to capture significant user time spent on larger screens, acknowledging TV as a crucial medium despite potential challenges in building for its fragmented device ecosystem.
- The platform prioritizes creator relationships by offering a distribution and consumption home base, fostering professional connections beyond public content, which is a unique strength against competitors like TikTok and YouTube.
- TikTok's aggressive data tactics, like unique link tracking for messages, and its "exploration-based ranking" system for content discovery, enable it to break new talent by surfacing novel content beyond established influencers.
- Instagram's approach to AI-generated content focuses on hybrid augmentation rather than purely synthetic "slop," aiming to identify and rank valuable content, including AI-powered translations, to enhance user experience.
- Threads aims to be a more civil platform than polarized text-based alternatives by providing tools for user control and focusing on ideas and perspectives, seeking to attract communities from decaying platforms like X.
- Instagram's future includes user-driven algorithmic control, allowing proactive shaping of content surfaces like Reels and search, with a longer-term vision toward audio-first interactions in potential future form factors like smart glasses.
Deep Dive
Instagram CEO Adam Mosseri articulates a vision for Instagram in 2025 as a platform primarily driven by private messaging and short-form video consumption, diverging from its earlier emphasis on broadcast sharing. This strategic pivot acknowledges shifts in user behavior, where direct communication and video entertainment have surpassed traditional feed posts, positioning Instagram to compete with emerging platforms and maintain its relevance in a media landscape increasingly resembling television.
The platform's expansion onto television screens via Amazon Fire TV signifies a calculated move to capture a significant portion of user attention currently dedicated to larger screens, acknowledging that television remains a dominant medium for entertainment. Mosseri frames this not as Instagram becoming television, but as an acknowledgment of television's importance as a format for time spent, aiming to integrate Instagram's offerings into this established habit. This expansion presents a strategic tension: while it broadens reach, it risks diluting Instagram's core strength -- personal connection through messaging and short-form video. Mosseri expresses concern that the symbiotic relationship between friends and short-form video could be disrupted by long-form content, potentially alienating users who prioritize direct social interaction.
Furthermore, Mosseri addresses the evolving creator economy and the competitive landscape, particularly against TikTok. He highlights TikTok's aggressive data utilization and its success in "exploration-based ranking"--algorithms that prioritize content discovery over established follower graphs, allowing new talent to emerge. Instagram, while also employing similar ranking systems, faces challenges in breaking new stars at TikTok's rate. Mosseri acknowledges that Instagram's strength lies in its ability to foster professional connections among creators beyond just content distribution, positioning it as a "home base" for networking. He also touches upon the rise of AI-generated content, suggesting that hybrid forms of AI-assisted creation will be more prevalent than purely synthetic "slop," and that Instagram is working to identify and rank this content effectively, as evidenced by features like real-time translation. Looking ahead, Mosseri anticipates a future where users have more proactive control over their experience through AI, and where form factors like smart glasses may shift interaction towards audio-first experiences, presenting new challenges for visual platforms.
The core implication for Instagram is the ongoing challenge of balancing its social graph and personal connection strengths with the broader media trends toward passive, video-centric consumption, particularly on larger screens. The platform's strategy appears to be an attempt to adapt to these shifts without sacrificing its unique identity, a delicate maneuver that will determine its future competitive standing.
Action Items
- Audit Instagram's content ranking: Analyze 5-10 core content types for "AI slop" and user-generated content balance.
- Draft runbook for AI content identification: Define 3-5 criteria for detecting AI-generated content at scale.
- Measure creator diversification: Track 3-5 key creators' platform usage over 6 months to assess cross-platform strategy effectiveness.
- Evaluate TV app engagement: Analyze user data for the first 2-4 weeks of the Instagram TV app launch to identify core use cases.
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View Episode Notes →Key Quotes
"The primary way that people actually share with friends is through messages. It's not through stories or feed and the primary way that people entertain themselves and consume public content is video. So it's a lot of DMs and it's a lot of Reels right now."
Adam Mosseri explains that Instagram's core functions have shifted, with direct messaging being the main method for friend communication and video being the dominant form of public content consumption. This highlights a move away from traditional feed posts towards more immediate and video-centric interactions.
"For Instagram that hook for a lot of people is friend content. So you know and their friends. So it might be sharing their biggest moments or sharing lightweight moments in stories or it might be them just sending them funny comedy clips in DMs but that's like a real motivator for people to show up and then they can stay and spend a lot more time on public content."
Mosseri articulates that the fundamental draw for users on Instagram is content from their friends, whether it's significant life events shared in Stories or casual video clips sent via Direct Messages. This "friend content" serves as the initial incentive for users to engage, which then allows them to explore and spend more time with public content on the platform.
"I don't know that I would say that Instagram is becoming television but I think that we're just seeing how important TV is as a format and it's just a place where people spend time. And historically we've been fighting you know with some pretty fierce competition for people's time on mobile phones but obviously there's an immense amount of time spent on TV."
Adam Mosseri clarifies that while Instagram is not becoming television, the company recognizes the significant amount of time people spend watching TV. This move to platforms like Amazon Fire TV is framed as a strategic effort to capture user attention in a medium where considerable time is invested, acknowledging the competition for screen time beyond mobile devices.
"I think the more likely the more likely tension would be I don't know that this will be the case but we have been very explicitly and intentionally focused on short form video on Instagram my belief is that connecting people with their friends and short form video can be really symbiotic."
Mosseri expresses concern about the potential for long-form video to detract from Instagram's core strength: connecting people with their friends. He believes that short-form video and personal connections are symbiotic, as users often share these videos with friends, fostering interaction, but questions whether this synergy exists with longer video formats.
"The basic idea is that you want to give every piece of content a chance regardless of whether or not it's from a big established account or not. It is much easier for us to drive up engagement by showing a lot of photos and videos from Selena Gomez and The Rock because they're so big and we know so many people like them. It is much more difficult to figure out that you've happened to be in like into afro beats and you happen to be into like you know crochet scarves."
This quote explains the concept of "exploration-based ranking," a system designed to surface content from less established creators. Adam Mosseri highlights that while it's easier to promote content from popular figures, this ranking method allows for the discovery of niche interests and new talent by giving all content a chance to be seen, even if it's from accounts with few followers.
"I think people fundamentally really want to hear from other people and so we still feel like creators are one of the most important audiences for us across industries."
Mosseri emphasizes the enduring human desire for connection and content from other people, asserting that creators remain a critical audience for Instagram. He believes this fundamental need for human-to-human interaction underpins the continued importance of creators, even in an era of increasing AI-generated content.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "Blackbird Spyplane" by Jonah Weiner - Mentioned as the source of a post discussing the transgression of daily posting on Instagram grids.
Articles & Papers
- "Everything is Becoming Television" (Source not explicitly stated, but discussed in relation to Derek Thompson's essay) - Referenced as a thesis that Instagram CEO Adam Mosseri pushed back against.
People
- Adam Mosseri - CEO of Instagram, guest on the podcast discussing Instagram's evolution, features, and future.
- Ben Smith - Editor-in-Chief of Semafor, co-host of the podcast.
- Chad Lewis - Mentioned in relation to podcast production.
- Derek Thompson - Author of an essay on "everything is becoming television."
- Jules Zern - Mentioned in relation to podcast production.
- Josh Billinson - Mentioned in relation to podcast production.
- Jonas Weiner - Author of the newsletter "Blackbird Spyplane."
- Kyle Chayka - Mixed Signals listener who submitted a question about posting daily lives on Instagram.
- Manny Fidel - Mentioned in relation to podcast production.
- Mark Zuckerberg - Mentioned as someone Adam Mosseri is close to.
- Max Tani - Media Editor at Semafor, co-host of the podcast.
- Neil Mohan - Previous guest on the podcast who discussed YouTube creators making content for TV.
- Peter Kafka - Host of a podcast on which Ben Smith was a guest.
- Rick Quan - Podcast engineer.
- Rachel Oppenheim - Mentioned in relation to podcast production.
- Selena Gomez - Mentioned as an example of a large account that drives engagement.
- Steve Bone - Creator of the podcast's theme music.
- The Rock - Mentioned as an example of a large account that drives engagement.
- Tori Core - Mentioned in relation to podcast production.
Organizations & Institutions
- Amazon - Mentioned in relation to Instagram's rollout on Amazon Fire TV.
- Boston Consulting Group - Collaborator on research regarding AI adoption.
- CBS - Mentioned as a competitor in the media landscape.
- Google - Mentioned in relation to "Think with Google."
- HBO - Mentioned as an example of a subscription service.
- Meta - Parent company of Instagram.
- Netflix - Mentioned as a competitor in the video streaming space.
- New York Times - Publication for which Kyle Chayka writes.
- NFL (National Football League) - Mentioned in the context of creator relevance.
- PFF (Pro Football Focus) - Mentioned in the context of creator relevance.
- Semafor - The media company producing the "Mixed Signals" podcast.
- Semafor Media - The media company producing the "Mixed Signals" podcast.
- TikTok - Competitor to Instagram, discussed extensively.
- Time Warner - Mentioned as an example of a media company.
- Think with Google - Resource for marketers, mentioned as a place to find insights.
- Twitter - Mentioned as a platform that Threads is compared to.
- YouTube - Competitor to Instagram, discussed extensively.
Websites & Online Resources
- Blackbird Spyplane - Newsletter by Jonah Weiner.
- Semafor.com - Website for Semafor Media, with a link to their newsletter signup.
- Thinkwithgoogle.com - Website providing marketing insights and guides.
- X (formerly Twitter) - Social media platform discussed in relation to Threads.
- YouTube - Video-sharing platform.
Other Resources
- AI (Artificial Intelligence) - Discussed as a transformative technology impacting content creation, ranking, and user experience.
- AI Slop - Term used to describe potentially low-quality or bizarre AI-generated content.
- Blend - An Instagram feature that provides insight into friends' interests.
- Exploration Based Ranking - A ranking system that gives new content a chance to be seen, discussed as a strength of TikTok.
- Feed - A content surface on Instagram.
- Instagram Reels - Short-form video format on Instagram.
- Instagram TV - Mentioned in relation to Instagram's expansion onto television screens.
- News Feed - A content surface on Facebook, previously managed by Adam Mosseri.
- Podcast - The format of the "Mixed Signals" show.
- Reels Tab - A dedicated section on Instagram for Reels.
- Social Network - The category Instagram falls into, according to Adam Mosseri.
- Stories - A content format on Instagram.
- Super Apps - Apps popular in China that combine multiple services, discussed in relation to TikTok's strategy.
- Threads - A platform launched by Meta, discussed as a competitor to X.
- TV - Television, discussed as a format and a platform for content consumption.
- UGC (User-Generated Content) - Content created by users, contrasted with high-production scripted dramas.
- Video - A primary content format discussed throughout the episode.