Strategic Betting and Psychological Mastery in Horse Racing

Key Quotes

"I had another six up that I hit the other day. Just the consolation, but it didn't, it didn't pay much, but still came like completely obvious and I still doubled my money with the consolation. It just astounds me how good that thing can pay."

Sean Boarman describes a recent "Six Up Double Up" bet where he hit the consolation prize, still managing to double his money. This highlights the potentially significant payouts available even without hitting the top prize, a characteristic of certain betting structures that Boarman finds remarkable.

"I don't get real specific with like profit targets necessarily. It just sort of depends on what the sequence is, the way it lays out, what it, you know, what it sort of given you. This past one, you know, I thought there were two just stone cold winners that were just obvious singles. They were short prices and the rest of the races seemed, you know, fairly, fairly gettable. So I didn't, you know, I didn't make a big play in it at all. It was a very, very small bet. But I thought about, you know, if I in that situation, you know, I was thinking like if I could get, you know, five to 10 times my money and not take really any risk, that I'd be satisfied with that."

Boarman explains his approach to setting profit goals for bets, indicating that he does not set specific targets. Instead, his decision-making is fluid, adapting to the specific sequence of races and the perceived likelihood of success. For a recent bet, he considered a five to ten times return on investment with minimal risk as a satisfactory outcome.

"No, well, I mean, maybe just in the past there's, there've been times where I've said to myself, 'Well, this can't pay anything. Don't,' and I end up don't playing it where, you know, I think that bet pays so well at times that it's almost always worth playing like it, even if it, you know, even if it looks very chalky with some obvious winners, it can still pay okay."

Reflecting on past decisions, Boarman shares a lesson learned from a previous bet where he opted not to play because he assumed it wouldn't pay well. He now believes that certain bets, even those that appear straightforward with obvious winners, are almost always worth playing due to their potential to pay out reasonably well.

"Yeah, and this is actually, this is another good lesson that, that applies to a lot of these six ups in particular. You can't, you can't spread enough a lot of times. Like it's, it's worth it to throw another horse in if it's going to be any price at all. And that, you know, especially if you're playing, if you've got two singles like I did, feel a little stupid. Like I did, I hit it, I hit the consolation, but at the same time, like it wasn't that complicated to hit the whole thing and I didn't have it and it paid probably 10,000 bucks, maybe 12 to 15,000, maybe."

Boarman emphasizes the importance of spreading bets in "six up" wagers, even when confident about certain horses. He recounts a situation where not including an additional horse, even at a good price, led to missing out on a significant payout, illustrating that it is often beneficial to add more options to a ticket.

"Yes, absolutely. It's a great site. They've got really any information you want on there. It does take some digging, but if you've got a few hours and you really want to learn Hong Kong racing, like their website has got all kinds of, all kinds of information. Replays, video of the workouts and the barrier trials, sectional pars, just, you know, a nice explanation of like all the equipment they use over there and what it does, what it means, trainer bios, jockey bios. I mean, just everything you could think of. So that, that would be the first place to start."

Boarman recommends the Hong Kong Jockey Club website as an excellent resource for anyone interested in learning about Hong Kong racing. He notes that while it requires some effort to navigate, the site offers a comprehensive array of information, including replays, workout videos, explanations of equipment, and biographical details for trainers and jockeys.

"Yes, yes, because those are the ones that can really, really pay well. And I've, of the ones that, you know, five of the six legs can be extremely logical and if you beat the one liquidity horse that's got, you know, the most singled horse on the sequence, especially if it's like a bigger race day or, you know, one of the known name horses over there and it gets beat, then you can really get paid. And, you know, I've kicked around the, I, I struggle to do this, but I kick around the idea a lot of just doing exactly that and playing it when I almost don't like the sequence, but I've got a reason to bet against just that one horse because, you know, if you could get, if you can get, you know, 30 winner that's got some little angle that you like in that race, then you can really, you can really make that thing pay well."

Boarman explains how betting against a single, heavily favored horse in a sequence can lead to substantial payouts. He notes that if five out of six legs are logical, and the most popular horse is defeated, the potential for a large return increases significantly, even if the overall sequence doesn't appear particularly strong.

"I, you know, I really enjoyed thinking about this question and and going back and watching some of these races. The first one is, uh, maybe the first two I'm going to mention are definitely not in the last 20 years, but I think they're in the last 25 years. So I think that's in off the goal post that, uh, that we can accept that."

Boarman expresses his enjoyment in revisiting classic horse races for the question about the best races of the last 20 years. He acknowledges that some of the races he plans to mention might slightly exceed the 20-year timeframe but believes they fall within an acceptable range.

"Yeah, no, I do. I definitely do. It's just it's hard to get there at times and the state of the industry now, but, you know, stuff like this brings it back. But, you know, in the second one, I thought was is just an awesome race was the Blame Zenyatta Classic."

Boarman confirms that he possesses a strong passion for horse racing, despite acknowledging the challenges presented by the current state of the industry. He finds that discussions and