Thoroughbred Racing: Emerging Talent, Breeding Strategies, and Industry Challenges - Episode Hero Image

Thoroughbred Racing: Emerging Talent, Breeding Strategies, and Industry Challenges

Horse Racing Radio Network · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Godolphin's consistent success, marked by five consecutive years topping North American breeder standings, highlights a culture of continuous improvement and ambition beyond current achievements.
  • The Keeneland January Sale offers unique opportunities, including mares like Tiffany Case, who, despite being older, presents significant value due to her young age and stakes-winning progeny.
  • Commandment's impressive performance in the Mucho Macho Man indicates potential for two-turn races, a critical factor for Kentucky Derby contention, though this remains an unproven aspect.
  • The NTRA Moment of the Year voting requires distinguishing between significant races and defining cultural moments, with D. Wayne Lukas's passing being presented as the year's most impactful event.
  • The success of stallions like Essential Quality and Maxfield, evidenced by strong yearling sales and multiple stakes winners, demonstrates their potential to significantly influence the breed's future.
  • Surprisingly Perfect's career as Claiming Horse of the Year underscores the value of "blue-collar" horses and the dedication of those who nurture them, offering a relatable success story.
  • The debate over the NTRA Moment of the Year highlights the subjective nature of defining a year's defining event, contrasting the impact of a legendary figure's passing with major race outcomes.

Deep Dive

The Thoroughbred racing industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by the performance of emerging three-year-olds, the strategic decisions of major breeding operations, and the enduring legacy of racing's past. This period is marked by a focus on identifying future stars for the Kentucky Derby and a robust market for breeding stock, all while grappling with the foundational challenges of horse population and industry collaboration.

Key Developments and Strategic Imperatives:

  • Emerging Three-Year-Old Talent: The focus is on identifying potential Kentucky Derby contenders, with horses like Commandment, Strategic Risk, and My World demonstrating early promise. Commandment, in particular, has impressed with multiple dominant victories, though his ability to translate this success to longer, two-turn races remains a key question for his Derby prospects. The performance of these young horses is critical for stallion syndicates and breeders looking to establish future breeding value.
  • Breeding Operations and Stallion Rosters: Major players like Darley and Coolmore are actively managing their stallion rosters, introducing new sires like First Mission and Highland Falls, and highlighting the success of established ones such as Essential Quality and Maxfield. The commercial reception of first-yearlings from popular sires like Cody's Wish, evidenced by strong auction prices, indicates sustained market confidence. Darley's strategic approach to mare selection emphasizes physical attributes and pedigree compatibility to maximize commercial appeal and racing success, underscoring the interconnectedness of breeding and racing outcomes.
  • Market Dynamics in Sales: The Keeneland January Sale is anticipated to be strong, driven by demand for quality broodmares and broodmare prospects, including prominent figures like Tiffany Case (dam of Nitrogen) and Simply In Front. The sale's inventory, featuring progeny from top first-crop sires, signals a healthy yearling market and suggests continued investment in promising bloodlines. This robust sales activity reflects a broader trend of strong market performance across various sale types, indicating underlying financial health and optimism within certain segments of the industry.

Second-Order Implications and Industry Challenges:

  • The "Circuit" Debate and Industry Collaboration: The discussion around creating synchronized racing circuits across states, exemplified by New York and California, highlights a critical tension between individual track interests and broader industry health. The declining foal crop and the competition for horses between tracks within the same state necessitate greater collaboration among racing secretaries and management to optimize race scheduling and condition books. Failure to coordinate could lead to diminished field sizes, reduced handle, and a less attractive product for bettors, impacting revenue streams crucial for horsemen and tracks alike. The argument for coordinated scheduling is that it would allow for better interchange of horses, potentially increasing field sizes and handle, thereby bolstering the economic viability of racing across different regions.
  • Defining "Moment of the Year": The debate surrounding the NTRA Moment of the Year award, specifically the inclusion of D. Wayne Lukas's passing versus exceptional race performances, underscores a philosophical difference in what constitutes a defining moment for the sport. While race victories are celebrated achievements, the passing of a legend like Lukas represents a significant cultural and historical marker for Thoroughbred racing. This distinction influences how the sport remembers its past and publicizes its present, potentially impacting public perception and the narrative surrounding its legacy.
  • The Value of "Blue-Collar" Success: The story of Surprisingly Perfect, the Claiming Horse of the Year, provides a vital counterpoint to the focus on elite athletes. This horse's remarkable longevity, consistent performance, and beloved status demonstrate that significant contributions to racing come from all levels of the sport. The dedication of trainers and support staff, as exemplified by Justin Evans and his team, highlights the essential human element and the emotional rewards derived from racing, regardless of the level of competition. This narrative reinforces the idea that success in racing is not solely defined by top-tier stakes winners but also by the dedication, resilience, and heart displayed by horses and the people who care for them throughout their careers.

Action Items

  • Audit stallion roster: Identify 3-5 stallions with declining progeny performance metrics (e.g., average yearling price, stakes winners per crop) and analyze potential causes (e.g., genetic bottlenecks, market shifts).
  • Develop sire line analysis framework: Create a system to track and evaluate the performance of specific sire lines (e.g., Street Sense, Curlin) across multiple generations to inform future breeding decisions.
  • Measure yearling sale performance by sire: Track the average yearling price and clearance rate for the top 10 first-crop sires annually to identify market trends and successful breeding strategies.
  • Evaluate broodmare prospect value: Establish criteria for assessing the long-term breeding potential of mares based on progeny success, pedigree, and physical attributes to inform acquisition strategies.
  • Analyze sales catalog diversity: Review the diversity of sire representation in major sales catalogs (e.g., Keeneland January) over 3-5 years to identify potential market saturation or underserved segments.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"Darren Fox is going to join me at 9 o'clock Eastern to talk about Godolphin and their banner year in 2025. As we continue to look back on the year that was and continue to look ahead, Darren also spends a lot of time, obviously, with the sales of their stallions. So we're going to talk about the success of their stallions and what you can look forward to, a couple of newcomers for the 2026 breeding season. So stay tuned for that."

This quote highlights the upcoming discussion with Darren Fox, Sales Manager at Darley, focusing on Godolphin's successful year and their stallion roster for the upcoming breeding season. The presenter indicates a plan to discuss both past achievements and future prospects, including new additions to their stallion lineup.

"And at the end of our two-hour, little story, the co-owner and trainer of a horse by the name of Surprisingly Perfect. You may or may not have heard of him. He made headlines yesterday when the press release came out that he was named the Claiming Horse of the Year. I always want to say Claiming Crown Horse of the Year, the Claiming Horse of the Year for 2025, Surprisingly Perfect. And he's such a cool story. And when Justin joins me at 9:40 Eastern, you're going to hear the full story."

This excerpt introduces the upcoming interview with Justin Evans, trainer and co-owner of Surprisingly Perfect, the 2025 Claiming Horse of the Year. The presenter emphasizes the horse's remarkable story and the anticipation for Evans to share the details.

"And again, I, I'm a big proponent of separating the race of the year from the moment of the year. And sometimes they're the same, but oftentimes they're not. And I don't think they are this year either. To me, when you look at this list, my vote hands down is going to be the passing of D. Wayne Lukas, who left us at the age of 89 last year. That to me is one, if not the defining moment of 2025. With all due respect to those great horses I was just talking about, Sovereignty, Journalism, Ted Nafi, Forever Young, with all due respect to them, I think when I think about 2025, that was the, that was the big headline, that was the story."

The speaker argues for differentiating between the "race of the year" and the "moment of the year," stating that the passing of legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas was the defining moment of 2025. The presenter believes this event, more than any specific race, captured the essence of the year in Thoroughbred racing.

"But if you are going to pick a race, if you're going to pick a race, how about Journalism in the Preakness Stakes? I mean, the way that he bull-ed his way, the controversy that that race created in mid-May last year. Remember, he had to bull his way through in between horses. It was a controversial ride by Umberto Rispoli, and there were people saying it was too aggressive, there were people saying, "Oh, well, if he doesn't make that move, he doesn't win the Preakness Stakes." Maybe, maybe not. If he were to swing his horse out wide, keep him out of traffic, maybe he loses too much ground. But he was much the best. Gasker ran a monster race, but Journalism came in and ran him down after bulling his way through in between traffic."

This quote focuses on the Journalism's victory in the Preakness Stakes as a potential "race of the year." The speaker highlights the controversial ride by jockey Umberto Rispoli and the horse's improbable win after navigating through traffic, suggesting it was a defining race despite the controversy.

"But the reality of it is, maybe they're better suited for sprinting, maybe they're better suited for a one-turn mile. The two turns is a different game. Commandment will find that out. We'll see if he can pass that test. And then as the distances get longer, that separates that mile and an eighth. When we get to the mile and an eighth races, that really starts to separate some of the contenders from the pretenders. But you'll hear from Case Clay coming up in just a little bit. He took time yesterday to visit with me because of the fact that yesterday afternoon, he boarded a plane to head to Australia for the Magic Millions Sale. Then he goes to Dubai. He's a very busy man. But last week, he got to celebrate that win in the Mucho Macho Man by Commandment."

This passage discusses the potential of the horse Commandment, with Case Clay expressing that while Commandment had a strong performance, the true test will be his ability to handle two-turn races and longer distances. The speaker notes that the upcoming races will separate contenders from pretenders, and Clay's busy travel schedule is also mentioned.

"I feel very lucky. Ollie Tate is, um, appointed me into this position. Ollie's in Australia, and, um, on a branch, you know, on the tree below Ollie is myself and Richard Brown. Richard handles Europe, and I handle the US. And, so that, that's the relationship. And I just feel very lucky to be, be in the, be in the, um, in the role for purchasing horses, privately and at auction, and then managing their racing careers."

Case Clay explains his role as the US Racing Manager for Wathnan Racing, appointed by Ollie Tate. He describes his responsibilities, which include purchasing horses at auction and privately, and managing their racing careers, expressing gratitude for the opportunity.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The History of Thoroughbred Racing in America" by Tim Wilken - Mentioned as a source for historical racing information.

Articles & Papers

  • "The History of Thoroughbred Racing in America" (Source not specified) - Mentioned as a source for historical racing information.

People

  • Dan Pride - Mentioned as a former employee at Darley.
  • Jimmy Bell - Mentioned as a former employee at Darley.
  • Sheikh Mohammed - Mentioned as the former owner of Darley.
  • Elliott Walden - Mentioned as the former CEO of Winstar Farm.
  • Jerry Duffy - Mentioned as the successor to Elliott Walden at Winstar Farm.
  • Justin Evans - Co-owner and trainer of Surprisingly Perfect, named Claiming Horse of the Year for 2025.
  • Art Reese - Gallop boy for Surprisingly Perfect.
  • Nolton Hamilton - Groom for Surprisingly Perfect.
  • Christina Stricklin - Groom for Surprisingly Perfect.
  • Tracy Evans - Sister of Justin Evans, involved in caring for Surprisingly Perfect.
  • Addison Evans - Daughter of Justin Evans, involved in caring for Surprisingly Perfect.
  • Dick Capaluchi - Former owner of Surprisingly Perfect.
  • Jeff Rucusi - Partner of Justin Evans in claiming Surprisingly Perfect.
  • Vic Stauffer - Announcer involved in the send-off ceremony for Surprisingly Perfect.
  • Larry Collmus - NBC announcer whose call of the Preakness Stakes was praised.
  • Robby Albarado - Legendary jockey expected to attend Jockeys and Jeans event.
  • Remy Bellock - Creator of a unique poster for the Jockeys and Jeans event.
  • Bobby Neuman - Host of the "Calling All Three Year Olds" segment.
  • Tony Lacy - Vice President of Sales at Keeneland.
  • Darren Fox - Sales Manager at Darley.
  • Brad Cox - Trainer of Commandments and My World.
  • Irad Ortiz Jr. - Jockey mentioned in relation to the Eclipse Awards.
  • Flavien Prat - Jockey mentioned in relation to the Eclipse Awards and setting a NYRA single card record.
  • Johnny Velazquez - Jockey mentioned in relation to the Eclipse Awards.
  • John A. Bell - Former owner of Calumet Farm, where Affirmed and Holy Bull stood.
  • Chick Anderson - Announcer whose call of the Affirmed vs. Alydar race was mentioned.
  • Don Brothers - Guest who discussed Diane Crump's legacy.
  • Kurt Becker - Host of "Stroll Through Racing History."
  • Diane Crump - First female jockey to ride in a pari-mutuel race and the Kentucky Derby.
  • A.C. Chesnut - Trainer for whom Diane Crump worked.
  • Nelson Zimbido - Owner of Lake Magdalene Farm, for whom Diane Crump worked.
  • Tommy Calyamette - Trainer of Bridal and Bit, ridden by Diane Crump.
  • Don Divine - Trainer of Fathom and future husband of Diane Crump.
  • A.H. Burns - Trainer for whom Diane Crump rode a winner at Churchill Downs.
  • Arthur Hogan - Associated with Coolbrook Farms.
  • Richard Hogan - Associated with Coolbrook Farms.
  • John W. Hine - Purchaser of Jonathan's Way.
  • Dale Romans - Co-host of "I Ask, They Answer" and trainer.
  • Tim Wilken - Co-host of "I Ask, They Answer" and turf writer.
  • Shane (from North Carolina) - Submitted a poll question for "I Ask, They Answer."
  • Tony (from Northern Ohio) - Submitted a question about racing circuits for "I Ask, They Answer."
  • Nick Zito - Guest who provides opinions on Eclipse Awards.
  • Leo O'Brien - Trainer of Four Star Dave, recently deceased.
  • Leona Velazquez - Wife of Johnny Velazquez.
  • Keith O'Brien - Son of Leo O'Brien, does voiceover work.
  • Vance Hanson - Host of the "TwinSpires Triple Play" segment.
  • Joe Sharp - Trainer whose barn is performing well at the Fairgrounds.
  • Mike Repole - Owner of Champagne Party.
  • Paco - Jockey retaining the mount on Champagne Party.
  • Michael Yates - Trainer of Audios Tutsi.
  • Shadybrook Farm - Owner of Audios Tutsi.
  • Golabrut Zook - Jockey for Audios Tutsi.
  • Will Walden - Trainer of The Palace Girl.
  • Chad Brown - Trainer of Celtic Motif.
  • Tom Proctor - Trainer of Pop Art.
  • Graham Motion - Trainer of Bronti.
  • Dwayne Lukas - Legendary trainer who passed away at age 89.
  • Eric Hamelback - CEO of the National HBPA.

Organizations & Institutions

  • TwinSpires - Presenter of the Equine Forum.
  • HRRN (Horse Racing Radio Network) - The radio network broadcasting the show.
  • Sirius 162 XM 207 - Radio channels where the show can be heard.
  • Keeneland - Mentioned in relation to the January Sale and as a sponsor.
  • Darley - Mentioned in relation to their stallion roster and banner year.
  • Godolphin - Mentioned for their success as breeders and owners.
  • Spendthrift - Sponsor of the "Calling All Three Year Olds" segment.
  • Wathnan Racing - Owners of Commandments.
  • Three Chimneys Farm - Former farm of Case Clay, breeder of Champagne Party.
  • National HBPA (Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association) - Mentioned for advocating for horse health and welfare.
  • PDJF (Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund) - Official charity of the HRRN.
  • Jockeys and Jeans - Event to raise money for the PDJF.
  • Tampa Bay Downs - Location of the Jockeys and Jeans event.
  • Mojo Racing Partners - Sponsor of the "Impossible Trivia Question."
  • Coolmore - Mentioned in relation to stallion Corniche.
  • Ashford Stud - Location of Corniche.
  • Airdrie Stud - Location of Jonathan's Way.
  • University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Sponsor of "I Ask, They Answer."
  • College of Business (University of Louisville) - Sponsor of "I Ask, They Answer."
  • NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) - Mentioned for the "Moment of the Year" voting.
  • FanDuel Racing - Sponsor of the "NTRA Moment of the Year" award.
  • NYRA (New York Racing Association) - Mentioned in relation to Flavien Prat's record.
  • Pimlico - Location of the Preakness Stakes.
  • Calumet Farm - Mentioned in relation to Iron Liege.
  • Spalding Jenkins - Mentioned in relation to In Swept.
  • Chesapeake - Mentioned in relation to In Swept.
  • Laurel - Location of races won by In Swept.
  • Bowle - Location of the Governor's Gold Cup won by Promise Land.
  • Jamaica - Location of the Wood Memorial.
  • Atlantic City Race Course - Location where Diane Crump rode and won.
  • Latonia - Location where Diane Crump won feature races.
  • Florida Downs - Location where Diane Crump grew up and rode.
  • Rockingham Park - Location where Diane Crump won feature races.
  • Fairgrounds - Location where Diane Crump won feature races.
  • Gulfstream Park - Location where Diane Crump rode and won.
  • Hialeah Park - Location where Diane Crump rode in her first pari-mutuel race.
  • Churchill Downs - Location where Diane Crump rode and won, and a focus of Derby discussions.
  • Emerald Downs - Location where Surprisingly Perfect competes.
  • Turf Paradise - Location where Surprisingly Perfect competes.
  • Albuquerque - Location where Surprisingly Perfect made one start.
  • Woodbine - Location of Surprisingly Perfect's first start.
  • Prescot - Location of Arizona Downs.
  • New Mexico - State where Justin Evans and Dick Capaluchi are based.
  • The Fairgrounds - Location of Race 4 in the TwinSpires Triple Play.
  • Tampa Bay Downs - Location of Races 9 and 10 in the TwinSpires Triple Play.
  • Pauls Meadows - Location where The Palace Girl has been working.
  • Brisnet.com - Sponsor of a call-in show.
  • AARP - Sponsor of the Avvo digital retirement coach.
  • Wounded Warrior Project - Organization supporting injured veterans.
  • World Wildlife Fund (WWF) - Organization promoting food waste reduction.
  • Podbean - Platform for HRRN podcasts.
  • Apple Podcasts - Platform for HRRN podcasts.
  • AARP - Sponsor of the Avvo digital retirement coach.
  • Wounded Warrior Project - Organization supporting injured veterans.
  • World Wildlife Fund (WWF) - Organization promoting food waste reduction.
  • Blood Horse - Publication featuring new stallions and training articles.
  • Airdrie Stud - Stallion farm.
  • Keeneland Sales - Sponsor of a race call.
  • University of Louisville - Mentioned in relation to their Equine Industry Program.
  • College of Business (University of Louisville) - Mentioned in relation to their Equine Industry Program.
  • Winstar Farm - Mentioned in relation to Elliott Walden and Jerry Duffy.
  • Calumet Farm - Mentioned in relation to Iron Liege.
  • Pimlico - Location of the Preakness Stakes.
  • Wathnan Racing - Owners of Commandments.
  • Three Chimneys Farm - Former farm of Case Clay.
  • National HBPA - Mentioned for advocating for horse health and welfare.
  • PDJF (Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund) - Official charity of the HRRN.
  • Jockeys and Jeans - Event to raise money for the PDJF.
  • Tampa Bay Downs - Location of the Jockeys and Jeans event.
  • Mojo Racing Partners - Sponsor of the "Impossible Trivia Question."
  • Coolmore - Mentioned in relation to stallion Corniche.
  • Ashford Stud - Location of Corniche.
  • Airdrie Stud - Location of Jonathan's Way.
  • University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Sponsor of "I Ask, They Answer."
  • College of Business (University of Louisville) - Sponsor of "I Ask, They Answer."
  • NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) - Mentioned for the "Moment of the Year" voting.
  • FanDuel Racing - Sponsor of the "NTRA Moment of

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