Kentucky Derby Prospects, Jockey Races, and Racing Legends - Episode Hero Image

Kentucky Derby Prospects, Jockey Races, and Racing Legends

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Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Paladin, a $1.9 million purchase, is rated an eight out of ten for Kentucky Derby prospects due to its undefeated record and Chad Brown's training, despite a disqualification in its maiden win.
  • Further Adieu, a Kentucky Jockey Club winner, receives a seven out of ten rating, with its significant maiden win margin and Brad Cox's training suggesting strong potential for the Triple Crown trail.
  • Incredible, the Street Sense winner, is rated a seven out of ten, showing an impressive turn of foot and a running style that could make him a factor in the Kentucky Derby.
  • Napoleon Solo, the Champagne Stakes winner, is given a six out of ten rating with potential to increase, as his trainer pointed him towards the Triple Crown instead of the Breeders' Cup.
  • Night racing at Turfway Park is a business decision to avoid direct competition with Aqueduct and Gulfstream, successfully increasing handle by attracting bettors seeking a unique wagering option.
  • Jockey weight allowances do not account for insulated clothing worn in cold weather, though race organizers shorten post parades and minimize jockey exposure to extreme temperatures.
  • Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat are in a close race for the top jockey title, with Ortiz Jr. having more wins but also more mounts, making the outcome a coin flip.
  • Comparing legendary jockeys like Russell Baze and Kent Desormeaux highlights different career paths, with Desormeaux's national impact and Triple Crown wins giving him an edge in head-to-head matchups.

Deep Dive

The core of horse racing discussion revolves around evaluating burgeoning Kentucky Derby prospects, assessing jockey accolades, and celebrating the sport's enduring figures. This episode of "I Ask, They Answer" highlights the nuanced predictions for next year's Derby trail, the competitive landscape of jockey rankings, and the historical significance of legendary riders, underscoring how talent and career longevity define success in the industry.

The conversation begins with an assessment of promising two-year-olds, with Paladin, the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes winner, receiving an eight from Tim Wilken and a nine from Dale Romans. Their ratings are grounded in Paladin's undefeated record, his pedigree as a $1.9 million purchase, and his trainer Chad Brown's success, though they acknowledge no Remsen winner has won the Derby since Thunder Gulch in 1995. Further Adu, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, garners a seven from Wilken and a potential ten from Romans, praised for his authoritative maiden win and strategic handling by trainer Brad Cox. Incredible, winner of the Street Sense Stakes, is rated a seven by both, noted for his impressive turn of foot and his trainer Riley Mott's proven ability to develop talent. Napoleon Solo, winner of the Champagne Stakes, receives a six from Wilken and a seven from Romans, with the primary question being his ability to stretch his speed over longer distances. These evaluations demonstrate a forward-looking assessment of potential, considering not just current performance but also developmental trajectories and pedigree.

The discussion then shifts to the jockey landscape, specifically the right-or-wrong debate on whether Irad Ortiz Jr. will reclaim the top jockey title from Flavien Prat. Wilken notes Prat's outstanding previous year but highlights his current strong performance despite fewer mounts, suggesting a close race. Romans leans towards Irad, predicting he will return to the top. This exchange illustrates the cyclical nature of jockey dominance, influenced by mount volume, recent successes, and voter perception, particularly around major awards like the Eclipse Awards. The program also engages in a series of head-to-head matchups between legendary jockeys, including Russell Baze vs. Kent Desormeaux, Laffit Pincai Jr. vs. Bill Shoemaker, Pat Day vs. Mike Smith, Chris McCarron vs. Edgar Prado, and Johnny Velazquez vs. Angel Cordero Jr. These comparisons reveal differing criteria for greatness, balancing national impact and Triple Crown success (Desormeaux, Shoemaker, Smith, Prado, Velazquez) against sheer win volume and regional dominance (Baze), or personal connection and mentorship (Day, Cordero Jr.).

Finally, the segment touches on the business and logistical aspects of horse racing, such as Turfway Park's decision to race at night during winter for business reasons, and the practical considerations for jockeys riding in cold weather. The passing of Terry Hill, an 80-year-old intern for the Saratoga Special, serves as a poignant reminder of dedication within the sport. These points highlight that success in horse racing is multifaceted, encompassing strategic business decisions, the physical and mental fortitude of athletes, and the lifelong passion that fuels participation at all levels.

Action Items

  • Audit 3-5 top Kentucky Derby prospects: Rate their potential on a 1-10 scale, considering pedigree, performance, and development trajectory (ref: Paladin, Further Adieu, Incredible, Napoleon Solo).
  • Track 5-10 key jockey performance metrics: Compare win rates, mount counts, and graded stakes wins between top jockeys (ref: Irad Ortiz Jr., Flavien Prat, Mike Smith, Pat Day).
  • Measure correlation between jockey win-loss record and number of mounts: Analyze if increased opportunities directly translate to higher win percentages for 3-5 prominent riders.
  • Evaluate 2-3 horse development patterns: Identify indicators of successful transition from two-year-old to three-year-old season by analyzing physical and performance changes.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"I'm gonna give Paladin an eight um he's two for two um even though he broke but he broke his maiden via dq when his rival Renegade bumped him but um you know he beat Renegade and nine others by i mean he won by two lengths in the Remsen and he you know he's a 1 9 million purchase a Gun Runner um he's got he looks like he's going to move forward and you know he's got Chad Brown in his corner which is uh another plus."

Tim Wilken rates Paladin an eight out of ten as a Kentucky Derby prospect. Wilken notes Paladin's undefeated record, despite a disqualification in his maiden race, and his decisive win in the Remsen Stakes. Wilken also highlights Paladin's significant purchase price and the advantage of being trained by Chad Brown.

"I'll give this horse a nine I think he's a good horse he's got all the right parts he's got pedigrees and expensive yearlings he's got the right people handling him and he wasn't over raced as a two year old which I think is a big deal I think timing is everything getting to the Kentucky Derby and the way they've handled him and the way his timing is coming about I think he's gonna be a major player on next year's Triple Crown trail."

Dale Romans assigns Paladin a nine out of ten, believing he possesses all the necessary attributes for success. Romans emphasizes the horse's pedigree, expensive yearling status, capable handlers, and the strategic advantage of not being over-raced as a two-year-old. Romans suggests Paladin is well-positioned to be a significant contender on the upcoming Triple Crown trail.

"He could be a 10 you know he's an impressive horse and I think they did the right thing skipping the Breeders' Cup with him you know we talked about putting him in there but they had the other horse that ended up winning so everything's clicking for team Spendthrift."

Dale Romans considers Further Adieu a potential "10" and believes the decision to skip the Breeders' Cup was correct. Romans notes the horse's impressive nature and suggests that everything is aligning well for his owner, Spendthrift.

"I actually I put I gave him a seven um you know it's always an eye opener when a horse wins the excuse me wins a um maiden by the amount of lengths that this guy won by um he he by Bolt the Or-- no I'm sorry he's a Gun Runner too I'm sorry and um you know he won that race pretty authoritatively um Brad Cox knows how to get him I mean who with Brad Cox's barn I have no idea how many other talented uh horses he might be throwing out there on the Triple Crown trail but right now this one looks like he's got a future."

Tim Wilken rates Further Adieu a seven out of ten, acknowledging the impressiveness of his maiden win by a significant margin. Wilken confirms Further Adieu is by Gun Runner and notes his authoritative victory. Wilken also points out that trainer Brad Cox has a strong barn and that Further Adieu appears to have a promising future.

"Well it's a big deal I mean it's not it's you're doing it at a major race track and uh yeah there's just a small group of us that have passed 500 and you know it also shows you gotta stay in power that you've been around a while and uh Brad's clicking on up there he might just run past me and Steve both he's got a little more youth on his on his side and Greg Foley Greg Foley yesterday when he joined me on that very same trainer talk show he said yeah Brad got there a heck of a lot quicker than I did."

Dale Romans discusses the significance of reaching 500 wins at a major racetrack like Churchill Downs. Romans notes that it signifies longevity and staying power in the sport. He also mentions that Brad Cox is rapidly approaching his win total and may surpass him and Steve Asmussen, attributing this to Cox's youth.

"Well the question is if Ted Nafie moves forward too if he does he's going to be a monster next year or was he just uh early maturing two year old you see that a lot this you know we've all seen middle school athletes or superstars that that everybody catches up to them in high school but um I mean if he moves forward they're all in trouble but it's a big time in a horse's life the two months between two to three months between the Breeders' Cup and starting starting the preps."

Dale Romans raises the question of whether Ted Nafie will continue to improve into his three-year-old season or if he was simply an early maturing two-year-old. Romans likens this to middle school athletes who are dominant early but are later surpassed. He suggests that if Ted Nafie continues to develop, other horses will be in trouble, emphasizing the critical developmental period between the Breeders' Cup and the start of the three-year-old prep races.

"Well they they wear less than you think but they do wear some insulated clothes underneath and I don't think I'm not sure that's a good question I'll have to ask one of those jockeys if they weigh with them on or not uh I don't I don't think it should have to I don't think that's a concession I mean it's not like they're going out there with you know 10 pounds of insulation on them but I think there is a concession for that yeah because they have to bundle up I mean you just you know you're out there traveling what Dale 40 miles an hour on a racehorse with you know 16 18 degree temperatures that that can't be pleasant no."

Dale Romans addresses the question of jockeys wearing extra layers in cold weather. Romans states that jockeys wear less insulation than one might imagine and is unsure if they weigh with these clothes on. He does not believe it should be considered a concession, as the added weight is not substantial, but acknowledges that some accommodation is likely made due to the need to bundle up in extreme cold while racing at high speeds.

"Well first of all all of these these uh question to have uh each of these uh matchups you don't have a wrong answer you just don't because I believe they're all hall of famers but you know you look at Russell Baze against Kent Desormeaux Russell Baze is the all time leader in career wins in North America with just under 13,000 wins he was on the Northern California circuit you know he didn't uh make a big splash on the national scene he never won the Derby um he never ran in the Preakness or the Belmont no Eclipse awards and you know Kent Desormeaux was a three time Eclipse award winner he's won seven Triple Crown races he had his demons but if you had to pick one I mean I'm I

Resources

External Resources

Podcasts & Audio

  • Horse Racing Radio Network (HRRN) - Primary broadcast platform for the show.
  • HRRN's I Ask, They Answer - The podcast episode discussed.

Organizations & Institutions

  • University of Louisville Equine Industry Program in the College of Business - Presented the podcast episode.
  • NFL (National Football League) - Mentioned in relation to a past discussion topic.
  • New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team for performance analysis.
  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Data source for player grading.
  • Spendthrift - Owner of the horse Ted Nafi.
  • Churchill Downs - Race track where Brad Cox achieved his 500th win.
  • Saratoga Special - Publication for which Terry Hill interned.

People

  • Dale Romans - Trainer, co-host of the podcast.
  • Tim Wilken - Turf writer, co-host of the podcast.
  • Chad Brown - Trainer of the horse Paladin.
  • Brad Cox - Trainer who achieved his 500th win at Churchill Downs.
  • Greg Foley - Trainer who also achieved 500 wins at Churchill Downs on the same day as Brad Cox.
  • Steve Asmussen - Trainer with 992 Churchill Downs victories.
  • Riley Mott - Trainer of the horse Incredible.
  • Bill Mott - Trainer and father of Riley Mott.
  • Chad Summers - Trainer of the horse Napoleon Solo.
  • Ted Nafi - Horse mentioned as a potential champion two-year-old.
  • Irad Ortiz Jr. - Jockey discussed in relation to winning the top jockey title.
  • Flavien Prat - Jockey discussed in relation to winning the top jockey title.
  • Jose Ortiz - Jockey mentioned as a potential finalist for the top jockey title.
  • Russell Baze - Jockey discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Kent Desormeaux - Jockey discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Lafeat Pinkai Jr. - Jockey discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Bill Shoemaker - Jockey discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Pat Day - Jockey discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Mike Smith - Jockey discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Chris McCarron - Jockey discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Edgar Prado - Jockey discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Johnny Velazquez - Jockey discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Angel Cordero Jr. - Jockey and mentor to Johnny Velazquez, discussed in head-to-head matchups.
  • Terry Hill - Former intern for the Saratoga Special, passed away at 80.
  • Shane - Listener from North Carolina.
  • Rick - Listener from Sacramento.
  • Tom - Listener from St. Louis.
  • Nick Zito - Guest for the "Right or Wrong" segment.
  • Ian Wilkes - Trainer of Shackelford.

Other Resources

  • Paladin - Horse, winner of the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes.
  • Renegade - Horse, competitor in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes.
  • Balboa - Horse, finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes.
  • Cording - Horse, mentioned in the Remsen Stakes results.
  • Thunder Gulch - Horse, last Remsen winner to win the Derby.
  • Further Adieu - Horse, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
  • Ted Nafi - Horse mentioned as a potential champion two-year-old.
  • Incredible - Horse, winner of the Street Sense Stakes.
  • Universe - Horse, mentioned as the favorite in the Street Sense Stakes.
  • Napoleon Solo - Horse, winner of the Champagne Stakes.
  • Liam's Math - Horse mentioned in relation to Napoleon Solo.
  • Shackelford - Horse trained by Dale Romans, made a significant jump from two to three years old.
  • Man of War - Horse mentioned in a discussion about past greats.
  • Upset - Horse mentioned in a discussion about past greats.
  • Justify - Horse that won the Triple Crown.
  • Third Man - Horse that won the Kentucky Derby in 1954.
  • The Man from U.N.C.L.E. - Television show, inspiration for the horse name Napoleon Solo.
  • Paladin - Character from the TV show "Have Gun, Will Travel."
  • Equine Industry Program - Educational program at the University of Louisville.
  • Kentucky Derby - Major horse race.
  • Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Horse race.
  • Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes - Horse race.
  • Street Sense Stakes - Horse race.
  • Champagne Stakes - Horse race.
  • Triple Crown - Series of horse races.
  • Preakness Stakes - Horse race.
  • Belmont Stakes - Horse race.
  • Remsen Stakes - Horse race.
  • Shoemaker Award - Jockey award.
  • Eclipse Awards - Horse racing awards.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 2 Remsen - Horse race.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
  • Grade 1 Wins - Metric for jockey success.
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