Horse Racing Handicapping: Data, Global Trends, and Virtual Engagement - Episode Hero Image

Horse Racing Handicapping: Data, Global Trends, and Virtual Engagement

In The Money Players' Podcast · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Investing in New York breeding programs enables participation in substantial prize pools, making it an appealing strategy for owners and breeders seeking to maximize financial returns.
  • Braver than you believe's pace line on Timeformus, showing early speed, mid-race settling, and a late finish, suggests potential for sustained performance and improvement.
  • Paladin and Renegade, both rated 86 on ability figures, represent strong contenders for the Derby futures, indicating their potential for high-level competition.
  • Lux or Cafe's recent 115 Neth Keba time index, translating to a 107-108 Beyer, signifies a strong performance and suggests potential for future success in major races.
  • Forever Young's potential to become the all-time leading money earner in horse racing highlights the significant financial implications of consistent top-tier international performance.
  • The JRA's success in international racing indicates a developed strategy for performing well abroad, suggesting a continued trend of global competitiveness.

Deep Dive

This podcast episode synthesizes insights on upcoming horse races, primarily focusing on the Cigar Mile Day card at Aqueduct and the Champions Cup in Japan. It offers specific handicapping advice and explores broader implications for the sport, including the increasing internationalization of racing and the appeal of horse racing simulations. The discussion highlights how detailed data analysis, like speed figures and pace line evaluations, informs betting strategies, and touches on the emotional connection fans develop with successful horses.

The episode delves into the nuances of handicapping the late Pick 5 at Aqueduct, emphasizing the importance of "figures" and subsequent race performance to identify strong contenders like Life In Times. It then shifts to the New York Stallion Series, where horses like Braver Than You Believe and Daniella Marie are analyzed based on their pace figures and potential for improvement. The Remson Stakes is examined through the lens of Derby futures, with Paladin and Renegade identified as promising contenders, underscoring how early-season assessments of young horses can shape long-term expectations. The discussion on Parker's Boon in the final race highlights how even dominant favorites can be challenged by horses from sharp outfits like Ferraro, suggesting that betting opportunities often lie in identifying potential upsets or value plays.

Beyond specific race predictions, the episode touches on the growing global nature of horse racing, with Alex Henry providing an in-depth look at the JRA action. The discussion around "Forever Young" winning the Breeders' Cup and its potential to become the all-time leading money earner illustrates the sport's international appeal and the excitement generated by horses competing on a global stage. The mention of horse racing video games like "Winning Post 10" and "Umamusume Pretty Derby" reveals a secondary market for engaging fans, offering simulations that mirror real-world racing data and player experiences. This suggests a symbiotic relationship where virtual engagement can deepen interest in the actual sport, potentially attracting new fans or providing existing ones with additional ways to connect with racing. The episode concludes by reflecting on the Japan Cup, noting the thrilling performances and the growing international presence, reinforcing the idea that the sport is becoming increasingly interconnected and competitive worldwide.

Action Items

  • Track 5-10 key performance indicators (KPIs) for the Cigar Mile Day Pick 5 analysis to measure predictive accuracy and identify areas for improvement in future handicapping.
  • Audit the structure of the "Gallop Out" YouTube channel's content for Cigar Mile Day to identify 3-5 elements that could be replicated to enhance engagement on other racing analysis shows.
  • Create a template for future "Inner Circle" shows, defining 3 required sections (e.g., pre-scratch analysis, post-scratch adjustments, ticket construction rationale) to ensure consistent, high-impact content.
  • Measure the correlation between published figures and actual race outcomes for 3-5 horses in the Remsen Stakes to refine the application of figure-based handicapping.
  • Evaluate the effectiveness of the "Baby Talk" show format by identifying 3-5 specific segments that could be adapted for broader appeal in future horse racing analysis content.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"PTF kicks off the show with a solo run through of the late Pick 5 on Aqueduct on Cigar Mile Day. Make sure to check out the contest over at Twinspires.com."

PTF, the host, introduces his segment focusing on the late Pick 5 at Aqueduct for Cigar Mile Day. He also directs listeners to a contest available on Twinspires.com, indicating a practical, actionable element for the audience.

"Next up, Alex Henry joins to discuss the Champions Cup In Japan Saturday night and to look back at the Japan Cup and give an update on Forever Young."

PTF announces the upcoming segment with Alex Henry, highlighting her expertise on Japanese racing. This quote previews discussions on the Champions Cup and a review of the Japan Cup, along with an update on the notable horse, Forever Young.

"I always marveled at how he could talk and be compelling for as long as he did on the matt bernier shows back in the day the thing that really launched our in the money media youtube channel speaking of which encourage you to subscribe"

PTF reflects on Matt Bernier's past shows, noting his ability to engage an audience for extended periods. He connects this to the success of the "In The Money Media" YouTube channel and encourages listeners to subscribe.

"I do have a full write up of the cigar mile over at attheraces com i would imagine we'll link to that as well in our free in the money media newsletter we're going to do more with the newsletter in the new year you definitely want to be subscribed to that if you're not already as more exclusive content is going to be coming down there"

PTF mentions his detailed analysis of the Cigar Mile available on attheraces.com. He also promotes the free "In The Money Media" newsletter, promising more exclusive content in the new year and urging subscriptions.

"I've had historical success a funny thing is a horse player there's certain days i go back i look at my records go through my memories certain days we typically do well and this is one of those days last big saturday in new york travers day another one comes to mind inner circle members will fondly remember the nice ticket we cashed there"

PTF shares a personal anecdote about identifying specific days where he historically performs well as a horse player. He cites Cigar Mile Day and Travers Day as examples and recalls a successful ticket cashed by Inner Circle members on Travers Day.

"I will have one back up if it goes wrong for life in times i'm guessing it'll be because it's a pace burn up and if it's a pace burn up i think that number two wait list is the interesting alternative i will include him for something as the best closer in a race with a lot of speed but this is not one where i want to use those two equally"

PTF outlines a backup strategy for the first race, identifying "Wait List" as an alternative if "Life In Times" falters due to a fast pace. He emphasizes that "Wait List" is the preferred closer in a speed-heavy race but advises against treating both horses equally.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • Winning Post 10 2025 - Mentioned as a video game for horse racing fans.

Articles & Papers

  • Derby Future Piece (In The Money Plus) - Referenced for analysis of key contenders in the Remsen Stakes.
  • Derby Future Piece (In The Money Plus) - Referenced for analysis of Paladin and Renegade.
  • Full write up of the Cigar Mile (attheraces.com) - Mentioned as written content provided by the host.

Tools & Software

  • Steam Deck - Discussed for emulation of games like Gallop Racer and G1 Jockey.
  • Pro Player Percentage Tool - Used for making Inner Circle bets.

People

  • Matt Bernier - Mentioned as a former host whose style the current host emulates.
  • Drew Cotney - Mentioned for his "lunch plays" idea for the newsletter.
  • Andy Serling - Co-host of "The Gallop Out" show.
  • Nick Tamarro - Co-host of "The Gallop Out" show.
  • Ryan - Co-host of "The Gallop Out" show.
  • Jackson - Co-host of "The Gallop Out" show.
  • David - Mentioned in relation to morning line odds for the Remsen Stakes.
  • Chad Brown - Trainer associated with Paladin.
  • Cormick Brannick - Co-host of the "Baby Talk" show.
  • Jennifer Kelly - Guest on the "Degenerate Gift Giving Guide" show.
  • Marshall Graham - Mentioned in relation to Ten Strike Racing.
  • Clay - Mentioned in relation to Ten Strike Racing.
  • Risa Sakai - Jockey whose signed goggles were sent to Alex Henry.
  • Yagi San - Mentioned in relation to a signed program sent to Alex Henry.
  • Sakai San - Mentioned in relation to a signed program sent to Alex Henry.
  • Klaus - Mentioned as having sent memorabilia to Alex Henry.
  • Cody's Wish - Mentioned as a horse included in past iterations of the Winning Post game.
  • Flightline - Mentioned as a horse included in past iterations of the Winning Post game.
  • Torpedo Anna - Mentioned as a horse included in past iterations of the Winning Post game.
  • Damian Lane - Jockey who rode Lux or Cafe in the Musashino Stakes.
  • Graffar - Trainer of Kolandigan.
  • Christophe Lemaire - Jockey for Masquerade Ball.

Organizations & Institutions

  • In The Money Players' Podcast - The podcast hosting this episode.
  • In The Money Media - The network producing the podcast.
  • Twinspires.com - Platform hosting a contest mentioned.
  • The Gallop Out - A YouTube channel and show mentioned.
  • attheraces.com - Website where the host provided written content.
  • In The Money Media Newsletter - A free newsletter mentioned for exclusive content.
  • In The Money Plus - A tier of subscription service mentioned.
  • Aqueduct - Race track where the late Pick 5 is discussed.
  • JRA (Japan Racing Association) - Organization discussed in relation to Japanese racing.
  • Chukyo Racecourse - Racecourse where the Champions Cup is run.
  • Ohi Racecourse - Racecourse where the Japan Dirt Classic was run.
  • Tokyo Racecourse - Racecourse where the Musashino Stakes was run.
  • Kentucky Derby - Race mentioned in relation to future aspirations for Japanese runners.
  • Saudi Cup - Race mentioned in relation to future aspirations for Japanese runners.
  • Dubai World Cup - Race mentioned in relation to future aspirations for Japanese runners.
  • Japan Cup - Race discussed, with a focus on Kolandigan's performance.
  • Therapeutic Horses of Saratoga - Organization mentioned for its mission.
  • Ten Strike Racing - Founding partner mentioned.

Websites & Online Resources

  • Twinspires.com - Mentioned for contests.
  • Play-Asia.com - Website for purchasing Winning Post 10 2025.
  • Store.steampowered.com/steamdeck - Website for the Steam Deck.
  • inthemoneypodcast.com - Website for free analysis and newsletters.
  • X (formerly Twitter) - Social media platform where Alex Henry can be found.
  • Instagram - Social media platform where Alex Henry can be found.
  • TikTok - Social media platform where Alex Henry can be found.
  • YouTube - Platform where the podcast is available and where tutorials for emulation can be found.

Podcasts & Audio

  • In The Money Players' Podcast - The podcast hosting this episode.
  • Baby Talk Show - A show co-hosted by Cormick Brannick.

Other Resources

  • Cigar Mile Day - A specific racing day discussed.
  • Champions Cup - A Grade 1 race in Japan.
  • Japan Cup - A Grade 1 race in Japan.
  • Derby Futures - A type of betting market discussed.
  • Timeformus - A platform used for analyzing pace lines.
  • Racingflow.com - A source for pace information.
  • Net Keiba Time Index - A metric used to evaluate horse performance.
  • Gallop Racer 2008 - An older video game.
  • G1 Jockey - A video game.
  • Uma Musume Pretty Derby - A mobile game featuring horses.
  • Saudi - Refers to the Saudi Cup.
  • Dubai - Refers to the Dubai World Cup.
  • Breeders' Cup - A major horse racing event.
  • Travers Day - A significant racing day in New York.
  • The Derby - Refers to the Kentucky Derby.
  • Saudi Arabian Grand Prix - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal for Japanese runners.
  • The Breeders' Cup Classic - Mentioned as a significant win.
  • The Breeders' Cup Turf - Mentioned as a significant win.
  • The Japan Derby - Mentioned as a significant win.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned as a significant race.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned as a significant race.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Remsen Stakes - A specific horse race discussed.
  • The Cigar Mile - A specific horse race discussed.
  • The Champions Cup - A specific horse race discussed.
  • The Miyako Stakes - A specific horse race discussed.
  • The Musashino Stakes - A specific horse race discussed.
  • The Mile Championship Cup - A specific horse race discussed.
  • The Japan Dirt Classic - A specific horse race discussed.
  • The Paladin Race - A specific horse race mentioned as a key line.
  • The Napoleon Solo Race - A specific horse race mentioned.
  • The Champagne Stakes - A specific horse race mentioned.
  • The Derby Future Piece - A written piece by the host.
  • The Remsen Day Contest - A contest hosted by TwinSpires.com.
  • The Degenerate Gift Giving Guide - A show mentioned.
  • The Gallop Out - A show mentioned.
  • The Baby Talk Show - A show mentioned.
  • The In The Money Media Network - The network producing the shows.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Japan Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Breeders' Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Japan Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Breeders' Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Japan Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Breeders' Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Japan Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Breeders' Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Japan Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Breeders' Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Japan Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Breeders' Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Japan Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Breeders' Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Japan Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Breeders' Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.
  • The Kentucky Derby - Mentioned as a future goal.
  • The Japan Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Breeders' Cup - Mentioned in relation to a thrilling performance.
  • The Saudi Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.

  • The Dubai World Cup - Mentioned in relation to international racing.

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