Future-Back Exploration Drives Sustainable Breakthrough Innovation

Key Quotes

"I think that most innovation focuses on adjacencies and is viewed to be continuous innovation which means that what you're working on is an iteration over what's been worked on before and once in a while you have discontinuous innovation where it's not easy to connect what's being proposed with what was done before and that's much harder how much less predictable but often is categorized as a breakthrough because people neither expected it nor could they in the beginning assess its value so I think this is a concept that applies to really any industry the question is can you predict breakthrough innovations or can you follow a process to make them happen"

Afeyan distinguishes between continuous innovation, which builds on existing ideas, and discontinuous innovation, which is unpredictable and difficult to assess initially. He posits that this latter type is often what is categorized as a breakthrough because it is unexpected and its value is not immediately apparent. Afeyan suggests this distinction applies across all industries.

"I actually think about breakthrough innovation as something that you really want to think from the future back to the present whereas the more continuous innovation adjacency oriented innovation should be thought of as from the present going forward and I think you want to attack the space from both directions both from the needs that you're aware of today and ways you could become more efficient more impactful and give deliver better value to your customers but at the same time you want to envision future states without necessarily knowing how we get there from here and if you find something compelling come backwards and say what would have to be true and what can I do today to make that future possible sooner"

Afeyan proposes a dual approach to innovation, advocating for thinking about breakthrough innovation by projecting from a desired future state back to the present. He contrasts this with continuous innovation, which moves from the present forward. Afeyan suggests companies should pursue both directions, addressing current needs while also envisioning and working backward from potential future states.

"I would likely have a group that is somewhat differently motivated composed uh rewarded then is the traditional r d organization that's by the way sometimes hard because everybody in r d wants to believe that they're doing far out things but in reality the definition of a far out thing is something that's unpredictable and it's very hard to get money in r d budgets for truly unpredictable things so you do need to kind of think about it as having some constraints uh you want to make sure that you have enough different avenues being pursued and options being pursued because you know this is a space that I would propose is more about uncertainty than risk"

Afeyan suggests that organizations seeking breakthrough innovation should consider establishing a group with different motivations, compositions, and reward structures than traditional R&D. He explains that while R&D personnel may desire to work on "far out" ideas, the unpredictable nature of true breakthroughs makes it difficult to secure funding within standard R&D budgets. Afeyan emphasizes the need to pursue multiple avenues due to the inherent uncertainty involved.

"I've called at often times artificial intelligence as augmented intelligence I've called it augmented imagination which it has the ability to do one person's hallucination is another person's kind of leap and so to applying it into novel spaces is a very interesting way to prospect for things that a given human may not be able to think of I mean you can ask for and we do quite routinely hundreds and hundreds of new ideas in a space and then the question becomes how do you analyze for them and and see what might or might not make sense to try out"

Afeyan describes artificial intelligence as augmented intelligence or augmented imagination, highlighting its capacity to generate novel ideas that individuals might not conceive. He explains that AI can be used to prospect for concepts in new areas, generating numerous ideas that can then be analyzed to determine which are worth pursuing. Afeyan notes that this process is routinely employed to explore potential innovations.

"I think that what you've got to do is really think about what you're doing as a combination of leaping leaping meaning not limiting yourself to slight variations of where you are and then realizing that it's going to be hard to know what will and won't create value but you can try you can essentially engage with people who can represent feedback that represents value whether that's eventual customers users uh you name it wherever you can get selection pressure and then do the iteration cycles I mean it's clear in nature that variation selection and iteration creates unexpected novelty namely life and all the living things that we have and likewise in markets we see that all the time"

Afeyan advocates for a strategy that involves "leaping" beyond current limitations and acknowledging the difficulty in predicting value creation. He suggests engaging with individuals who can provide feedback representing value, such as customers or users, to create selection pressure. Afeyan draws a parallel to natural processes, stating that variation, selection, and iteration are fundamental to creating novelty, both in nature and in markets.

"I think that a major advantage of this country is its regenerative nature much like nature that we've been talking about all along which is progressing and learning from the iteration loops that it goes through this country has been a hyper evolutionary hyper adaptive place because of the constant uh influx of new thoughts new risk taking appetite new levels of desperation of people coming here and trying to make it work which I think has made for a great society and I think it will continue that way because that advantage is hard to replace by any other natural resources in my opinion"

Afeyan posits that the United States' regenerative nature, characterized by constant influxes of new ideas and risk-taking appetites from immigrants, is a significant advantage. He compares this to natural processes of progression and learning through iteration. Afeyan believes this hyper-evolutionary and adaptive quality, driven by people striving to succeed, has fostered a great society and is a unique asset that is difficult for other nations to replicate.