Fantasy Playoff Strategy: Matchups Trump Rankings - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Playoff Strategy: Matchups Trump Rankings

Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Divergent running back rankings, such as placing Jonathan Taylor and AJ Dillon outside the top 12 and 20 respectively, highlight a strategic shift towards players with more favorable matchups and projected offensive output.
  • Players like Rhamondre Stevenson and Khalil Herbert are now viable fantasy starters due to favorable matchups and increased workloads, contrasting with earlier season evaluations.
  • Cold weather games can increase yards after contact per attempt, benefiting running backs like Khalil Herbert and Raheem Mostert who excel in physical, ground-and-pound offenses.
  • The Buccaneers' defense, particularly its single-high safety coverage, presents a favorable schematic matchup for outside receivers like Mike Evans, despite historical concerns about his performance in his first game back.
  • CJ Stroud and Nico Collins are identified as strong DFS plays due to their teams' high pace of play, pass-heavy tendencies, and a favorable matchup against a Cardinals defense that often plays cover four.
  • Travis Etienne is a top DFS play against the Jets, benefiting from a projected high implied total, positive game script, and the Jets' vulnerability to the run, especially if Breece Hall's workload is reduced.
  • Theo Johnson is a strong tight end play against the Commanders, who allow significant schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position and funnel targets underneath.

Deep Dive

This episode of "Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score" dives into Week 15 start/sit advice, highlighting significant deviations from consensus rankings and emphasizing the importance of evaluating player matchups and potential game scripts. The core argument is that traditional rankings are insufficient for the fantasy playoffs, necessitating a deeper analysis of offensive tendencies, defensive vulnerabilities, and player usage in specific game situations.

The discussion reveals several key implications for fantasy managers. Firstly, the podcast argues for significantly downgrading players in unfavorable matchups or on projected low-scoring offenses. Jonathan Taylor, for instance, is ranked outside the top 12 due to the Colts being significant underdogs against a strong Seahawks team, with his average fantasy points in losses being considerably lower. This suggests that even elite talent can be neutralized by prohibitive game scripts, making players like Travis Etienne, who is projected for a favorable game script against the Jets, more attractive despite potentially lower individual talent.

Secondly, the episode stresses the concept of "run funnel" defenses and offenses, indicating that teams that can exploit or are exploited by the run game offer distinct advantages. The Bills are identified as a prime example of a run funnel defense, making players like Henderson, whose carries often utilize man-gap concepts, a higher upside play. Conversely, defenses that are weak against the run but strong against the pass can lead to a more concentrated offensive attack, benefiting running backs.

Thirdly, the analysis delves into the impact of game environment and injury situations on player value, particularly in split backfields. The Bears' running backs, Swift and Herbert, are highlighted as strong plays due to the team's expected ability to control the game and the Browns' recent defensive struggles. The discussion also touches on how injuries, like Jerome Ford's absence for the Browns, can elevate the value of other backs, such as D'onta Foreman, in a potentially run-heavy game. This underscores the need for constant monitoring of injury reports and their cascading effects on backfield roles.

Finally, the podcast emphasizes the importance of identifying "leveraging" plays in DFS and fantasy lineups, particularly in games with high projected totals or where a player might be overlooked despite a favorable matchup. CJ Stroud and Nico Collins are presented as potential leverage plays against the Cardinals, given the Texans' high implied total and the Cardinals' defensive scheme's susceptibility to deep throws. This strategic approach, focusing on "and then what?" -- what are the consequences of these matchups and game scripts on player performance -- is crucial for navigating the high-stakes environment of the fantasy football playoffs.

Action Items

  • Audit running back usage: Analyze 3-5 teams with split backfields to identify consistent target share or red zone opportunities.
  • Create player evaluation framework: Define 3-4 criteria for assessing player upside beyond current volume (e.g., matchup vulnerability, historical performance in specific game scripts).
  • Track positional target distribution: For 3-5 teams, measure how target share shifts based on quarterback changes or key player injuries.
  • Measure correlation between offensive pace and fantasy points: Analyze 5-10 games to understand how team tempo impacts overall scoring for key offensive players.
  • Evaluate defensive scheme impact on passing game: For 3-5 defenses, identify tendencies (e.g., cover 3 rate, pressure rate) and their correlation to opposing wide receiver fantasy points.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"I've got Jonathan Taylor at 15, AJ Dillon at running back 25, right here with Breece Hall at running back 24. The only offense projected for fewer points than the Jets and the Colts this week according to Vegas is the Raiders."

Jacob argues that Jonathan Taylor, AJ Dillon, and Breece Hall are ranked lower than consensus due to low projected team point totals. This suggests a strategic approach to player rankings based on Vegas implied totals and offensive projections.

"I've got Henderson at 16, Marks at 17. I think either one of them could be above him. I mean, Marks is in a similar type of workload, obviously Jonathan Taylor is a better player, but Houston's projected for 26 points this week, which is one of the highest totals for any team."

Jacob highlights that both Henderson and Marks are ranked closely, with the potential for Marks to be ranked higher. He emphasizes that despite Jonathan Taylor being a superior player, Houston's projected high point total makes Marks a viable option.

"The Cardinals' defense has been giving in this holiday season. Yeah, I'm fine with that. Yeah, I'm having a tough time with JT. If you have anything specific on the matchup for those two that you want to give people to help them make that decision, go for it."

Jacob expresses difficulty in ranking Jonathan Taylor, noting the Cardinals' defense has been struggling. He indicates a willingness to consider other players like Marks or Henderson if their matchups are more favorable, suggesting a data-driven approach to player evaluation.

"I've got him at running back 20 in my rankings. Both of these running backs playing at home in split backfields, but we've seen at times each of these running backs kind of take more of the short yardage, short down and distance, goal line work."

Jacob explains his ranking of Khalil Herbert at running back 20, noting his home-field advantage and involvement in short-yardage and goal-line situations within a split backfield. This highlights the importance of specific usage patterns for running backs.

"The Saints also play a bunch of cover three, and that's also decent for Hockenson, not like huge splits or anything. We it's the same for Jalen Coker who we just Cokes, we got our Jalen Coker breakout before the bye, leading the team in target share and all of that."

Jacob suggests that T.J. Hockenson's ranking is below consensus because the Saints' defense, while playing cover three, does not present a significant advantage. He also notes Jalen Coker's strong performance before the bye, indicating a potential shift in target share.

"I've got him at wide receiver 24. I'm nervous about Dallas just using, you know, tons of zone coverage and shifting everything towards Jefferson. I think that's the pretty simple way to approach defending this team."

Jacob expresses concern about Justin Jefferson's ranking at wide receiver 24, attributing it to the Cowboys' defensive strategy of using zone coverage and focusing on Jefferson. This indicates a defensive scheme consideration impacting player projections.

Resources

External Resources

Books

Videos & Documentaries

Research & Studies

Tools & Software

Articles & Papers

  • "Advanced Matchups" (FantasyPoints.com) - Discussed as an article detailing matchup angles and data.

People

  • Ryan Heath - Guest, contributor to FantasyPoints.com.
  • Jacob - Host of "Beyond the Box Score" podcast.
  • Max Faciano - Mentioned in relation to believing in CJ Stroud.
  • Danny - Mentioned in relation to Luther Burden ranking.
  • Dan - Mentioned in relation to cold weather games and CJ Stroud.
  • Von Miller - Host of "Free Range" podcast.
  • Adam Azer - Co-host of FFT stream.
  • EJ Cummings - Co-host of FFT stream.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Fantasy Points - Source of articles and data.
  • NFL (National Football League) - Professional American football league.
  • Jets - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Colts - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Seahawks - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Texans - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Cardinals - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Bills - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Browns - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Bears - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Steelers - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Chargers - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Chiefs - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Commanders - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Giants - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Panthers - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Patriots - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Vikings - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Raiders - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • 49ers - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Titans - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Broncos - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Eagles - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Buccaneers - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Falcons - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Saints - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Lions - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • Cowboys - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football rankings and matchups.
  • New England Patriots - Professional football team.
  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Data source for player grading.
  • Audacy Inc. - Mentioned in relation to privacy practices.
  • Meta - Mentioned in relation to AI infrastructure and job creation.
  • Shopify - Mentioned as a global commerce platform.

Courses & Educational Resources

Websites & Online Resources

  • FantasyPoints.com - Source for articles and data.
  • Twitter - Platform for Ryan Heath's tweets.
  • Meta.com/buildingamerica - Website for information on Meta's initiatives.
  • Shopify.com/odysseypodcast - Website for Shopify trial.

Podcasts & Audio

  • Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score - Podcast discussed.
  • Free Range with Von Miller - Podcast hosted by Von Miller.

Other Resources

  • AI infrastructure - Mentioned in relation to Meta's investments.
  • Commerce platform - Mentioned in relation to Shopify.
  • Fantasy playoffs - Mentioned as a fun time to play fantasy football.
  • Fantasy points per game - Metric discussed.
  • Fantasy points per snap - Metric discussed.
  • Fantasy points per outrun - Metric discussed.
  • Pass rate over expectation - Metric discussed.
  • Schedule adjusted fantasy points per game - Metric discussed.
  • Schedule adjusted yards before contact per attempt - Metric discussed.
  • Single high safety coverage - Defensive scheme discussed.
  • Cover 3 - Defensive scheme discussed.
  • Cover 4 - Defensive scheme discussed.
  • Two high safety coverage - Defensive scheme discussed.
  • Man coverage - Defensive scheme discussed.
  • Zone coverage - Defensive scheme discussed.
  • Expected fantasy points - Metric discussed.
  • Target share - Metric discussed.
  • Route rate - Metric discussed.
  • Snap count - Metric discussed.
  • Implied total - Metric discussed.
  • Yards per carry - Metric discussed.
  • Yards per route run - Metric discussed.
  • Pressure rate - Metric discussed.
  • Pressure rate over expectation - Metric discussed.
  • Net yards per attempt - Metric discussed.
  • Pass blocking - Aspect of offensive line play.
  • Run funnel - Defensive tendency discussed.
  • Pass funnel - Defensive tendency discussed.
  • Deep ball - Aspect of passing game.
  • Catchable expected fantasy points - Metric discussed.
  • Targeted fantasy points - Metric discussed.
  • Goal line touches - Metric discussed.
  • Checkdowns - Aspect of passing game.
  • Pass protection - Aspect of offensive line play.
  • Offensive line - Unit of a football team.
  • Pass rush - Aspect of defensive line play.
  • Game script - Scenario in a football game.
  • Game environment - Conditions of a football game.
  • Volume - Amount of opportunities for a player.
  • Upside - Potential for high performance.
  • Floor - Minimum expected performance.
  • Leverage - DFS strategy.
  • Pace - Speed of play in a football game.
  • Deep throw rate - Metric discussed.
  • Pressure - Defensive disruption of the quarterback.
  • Dropbacks - Number of times a quarterback attempts a pass.
  • Pass protection - Aspect of offensive line play.
  • Run heavy game - Game with a high number of rushing plays.
  • Pass heavy game - Game with a high number of passing plays.
  • Catch and run opportunities - Type of play.
  • Goal line touch - Play near the opponent's end zone.
  • Rushing upside - Potential for a player to gain yards on the ground.
  • Touchdown upside - Potential for a player to score touchdowns.
  • Tier break - Separation between groups of players in rankings.
  • Speculative receivers - Wide receivers with uncertain production.
  • Safer plays - Players with a lower risk of poor performance.
  • Streamer fill-in - Player used as a temporary starter.
  • Non-main slate - Games not part of the primary fantasy football slate.
  • Injury stuff - Information regarding player injuries.
  • Ownership - Percentage of DFS players selecting a particular player.
  • Non-answer - Evasive response to a question.
  • Game flow - Progression of a football game.
  • Skill sets - Player abilities.
  • Fringe flex play - Player considered for a flex position but with risk.
  • Buy - Week off for a team in fantasy football.
  • Sweats - Excitement and anxiety related to fantasy football outcomes.
  • Snaps - Number of plays a player is on the field.
  • Third downs - Crucial down for gaining a first down.
  • Passing downs - Situations where a team is likely to pass.
  • Man gap concepts - Type of run blocking scheme.
  • Split backfields - Backfield with multiple running backs sharing touches.
  • Short yardage - Situations requiring a small gain for a first down.
  • Short down and distance - Situations with few yards needed for a first down.
  • Goal line work - Plays near the opponent's end zone.
  • Offenses expected to have decent days - Teams projected for good offensive performance.
  • Offenses expected to play with a lead - Teams projected to be ahead in the game.
  • Cold weather games - Games played in low temperatures.
  • Yards after contact per attempt - Metric measuring a runner's ability after initial contact.
  • Single digit temperatures - Cold weather condition.
  • Physicality - Aggressiveness in play.
  • Early downs - First and second downs.
  • Receiving work - Catches made by running backs.
  • Pass blocking - Offensive linemen's role in protecting the quarterback.
  • Third quarter - Period of a football game.
  • Fourth quarter - Final period of a football game.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • Fourth quarter toms - Unclear reference, possibly a typo or slang.
  • **Fourth quarter toms

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