Identify Undervalued Fantasy Players Using Underlying Statistics

Key Quotes

"I have to check his game week 21 so many game weeks over the festive period welcome tom how are you yeah i'm good thanks joe yeah another quick turnaround like you say there now we've got a bit of a break after this with the fa cup haven't we but another deadline tomorrow yeah how are you you're okay yeah good good yeah i mean yeah good christmas good break but um not in fpl terms um i've got a little bit of a red both of us are on red arrows at the moment we've dipped a little bit we haven't dipped drastically but we've dipped a little bit in the rankings but uh we'll see if we can turn that around as well"

Joe and Tom are discussing their recent Fantasy Premier League performance, noting a slight dip in their rankings due to a "quick turnaround" of game weeks. This highlights the challenge of managing player selections and transfers during busy periods in the football season. The mention of "red arrows" indicates a decrease in their overall rank, a common concern for fantasy sports players.

"so a little bit of a spoiler that tom's going to be saving a transfer so we'll look at his team the moves he possibly could make but he's minded to save a transfer um so we thought in the absence of um time to do a goals imminent podcast which i do every week with mark jobling um for those regular listeners to that we're going to move that into video format a rare video format for that this week"

This quote reveals a strategic decision by Tom to "save a transfer," indicating a conservative approach to team management. The hosts are adapting their content format, moving the "goals imminent" segment to video due to time constraints, suggesting a response to audience engagement and production challenges. This shows how content creators adjust their methods based on practical considerations and listener feedback.

"last week it predicted returns from areola from brighton and gibbs white from nottingham forest who literally no other show was talking about except us so well done if you went for those differentials uh that we pushed there"

The hosts are highlighting the success of their "goals imminent" segment, specifically mentioning their accurate predictions for less obvious players like Areola and Gibbs-White. This demonstrates the value of their analytical approach, which identifies "differentials" -- players overlooked by others but with potential for high returns. Their success in spotting these players suggests a deep understanding of player form and underlying statistics.

"so 45 like you say it actually started really well i think after leeds man united my my my overall was about 700k but obviously then thiago came along wiped out my clean sheet and um it went a little bit downhill but i had um sell's in goal who got one point so started sell's yeah came on i didn't think he'd play at all but um he did come on for the i don't know was he injured john or was he just saving face a little bit after that terrible error i'm not sure but um i'm hoping now that sell's comes back into the first 11 this week and that saves me a transfer"

Tom is detailing a specific game week's performance, where an early lead was undone by an unexpected event involving Thiago and a clean sheet loss. This illustrates the unpredictable nature of fantasy sports, where a single player's action can significantly impact a team's score. Tom's hope that his goalkeeper, Sellés, will return to the starting lineup to save a transfer shows the importance of consistent starting players for team stability.

"so i think i need to start building my amount of free transfers so it's why i saved last week too many injuries in december or throughout the whole season it feels like i've been reacting i need to i need to kind of build a bit of a kitty and then be able to do something so i've got sell's in goal away at west ham hoping he comes back into the team tonight he should do yeah yeah absolutely"

Tom explains his strategy of saving transfers to build a "kitty," aiming to avoid reactive decisions caused by injuries. This proactive approach contrasts with simply reacting to events, suggesting a desire for more control and planning in his fantasy team management. His hope for his goalkeeper's return highlights the dependency on player availability for executing such strategies.

"so top of this table is sesko manchester united um he's had 12 shots inside the box he's had 12 shots in total so every single one of his shots is on target it has been inside the box and close range five of those on target he's scored no goals but he should have scored according to the xg delta gurus should have scored getting on for two goals over this period so five big chances missed them all so he is he's playing burnley next i wouldn't be surprised if he'll rack up some returns"

This quote introduces Sesko as a player who is statistically underperforming his expected goals (xG). The analysis points out that despite numerous shots, many of which are high-quality chances ("inside the box," "close range," "big chances"), he has not scored. The mention of "xg delta gurus" refers to advanced metrics that predict expected goals, suggesting that Sesko is due for a return based on his underlying performance.