FPL Scoutcast: Player Form, Fixtures, and Strategic Transfer Insights

Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips · December 30, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

Dominic Calvert-Lewin's recent surge in Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) and actual goals, driven by Leeds' tactical adjustments and his penalty role, presents a compelling value proposition at £5.8 million, despite historical finishing concerns.
Matheus Cunha's potential penalty duties and favorable fixture run against Wolves, coupled with Bruno Fernandes' absence, elevate him as a high-urgency captaincy candidate and a strong midfield option at £8.1 million.
The statistical advantage for Arsenal against Aston Villa, indicated by a 66% win probability and 48% clean sheet chance, suggests Arsenal players are strong contenders for high scores, despite Aston Villa's tendency to defy data.
Investing in defenders like Gabriel (Arsenal) and potentially Lewis Hall (Chelsea) offers defensive solidity and attacking upside, with Gabriel's return from injury and Hall's set-piece involvement providing strong underlying metrics.
The high frequency of expected goals and assists across multiple top teams (Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd) indicates a potential for widespread high scores this gameweek, making template player choices crucial.
While Dominic Calvert-Lewin's form is impressive, his difficult upcoming fixture run against Liverpool, Newcastle, and Everton, combined with Leeds' overall defensive vulnerabilities, warrants caution for long-term investment.
The data suggests that despite recent form, players like Bukayo Saka and Julian Alvarez may be less optimal captaincy choices compared to Matheus Cunha due to fixture difficulty and penalty responsibilities.

Deep Dive

This podcast episode, "GW19: The FPL Scoutcast," focuses on providing Fantasy Premier League (FPL) tips and advice for an upcoming game week, highlighting player performance, statistical analysis, and strategic team management. The core implication is that success in FPL requires a dynamic approach, adapting to player form, fixture difficulty, and statistical indicators like expected goals and assists (xGI) to navigate a highly competitive environment.

The discussion reveals several key insights into FPL strategy. Firstly, player form and underlying statistics, such as xGI, are crucial indicators for potential success, as demonstrated by the elevated performance of Dominic Calvert-Lewin. However, this data must be contextualized with fixture difficulty; even a high-performing player like Calvert-Lewin faces challenging upcoming matches, suggesting that short-term form may not always translate to long-term gains. This implies that managers must balance player potential with upcoming schedules to avoid costly transfers.

Secondly, the episode emphasizes the importance of strategic transfers and team structure, particularly concerning player price points and team value. The debate around players like Matheus Cunha and Dominic Solanke highlights the trade-offs between expensive, high-potential assets and more budget-friendly options that can free up funds for other crucial positions. The implication here is that optimal team construction involves carefully managing financial resources to maximize scoring potential across the entire squad, rather than solely focusing on a few star players.

Finally, the podcast underscores the volatile nature of FPL, where unexpected hauls and blank gameweeks are common. The varied fortunes of the hosts, ranging from green arrows to red arrows, illustrate that even with expert analysis, luck plays a significant role. This suggests that while data-driven decisions are vital, maintaining a resilient mindset and accepting the inherent unpredictability of the game are essential for sustained engagement and enjoyment. The collective desire for "green arrows" and the ongoing analysis of community league performance demonstrate the competitive and community-driven aspect of FPL.

Action Items

Audit player selection criteria: Define 3-5 objective metrics for evaluating player performance beyond recent form (e.g., expected goals, defensive actions, historical consistency).
Create a team structure review process: Analyze team composition for potential vulnerabilities (e.g., over-reliance on a single team's players, lack of diverse scoring potential) before each game week.
Implement a transfer strategy framework: Establish rules for evaluating transfers, prioritizing moves that address systemic weaknesses or capitalize on predictable fixture swings over short-term gains.
Track player fixture difficulty: For the next 3-5 game weeks, categorize upcoming opponents for key players based on defensive and offensive metrics to proactively identify potential challenges or opportunities.

Key Quotes

"guilty as charged a little bit naughty this year so um yeah red arrow has come my way um yeah it's been i can't lie it's been a bit of an emotional week in terms of uh the fpl side of things christmas was glorious obviously merry christmas to everyone who's tuning in hope everyone had a wonderful time but i was in a position where i just thought to myself you know try and get myself in a position where the moves that i'm making doesn't ruin ruin everything off the back of christmas and i don't exactly that with the moves that i made so um yeah i only have myself to blame but um hopefully we can rectify it this week because we have got a lot of game weeks in the space of a week or 10 days we really do so anybody that is sat on a red arrow you do have the time to rectify it so do not worry"

Nacho explains that he received a "red arrow," indicating a poor performance in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) for the week. He takes responsibility for his transfer decisions, acknowledging that they did not yield the desired results and contributed to his negative rank movement. Nacho expresses hope for improvement in the upcoming game weeks due to the dense schedule.

"i was in a position where all week i was going to buy florian verts and when i woke up on boxing day i just had eteke fear going to be honest i crumbled under pressure i should have stuck my guns because i would have brought in similar to yourself mate verts and keen and it would have been a tasty week um but it is what it is eteke can still do magic against leads and the transfer looks fantastic so yeah 41 points is what it is um moving on"

Nacho recounts a specific FPL decision where he intended to transfer in Florian Wirtz but ultimately succumbed to "Eteke fear" and made a different move. He expresses regret, believing that sticking to his original plan of acquiring Wirtz and Keen would have been more beneficial. Nacho acknowledges the outcome of his chosen transfer but suggests it's not a complete disaster.

"well i think for large parts of the season he doesn't do it you know like that's that's that's a counter balance like whenever whenever you know there was obviously very strong opinions on calvert lewin and i was one of those people that was very opinionated on calvert lewin i think what we are seeing from him now is a good bit of a small amount you know so at the very start like we weren't really sure leeds had a lot of options and a kind of attacking spaces was he automatically going to come on was he going to start was he going to play every week there was obviously this assumption that he was going to be in penalties now i think all those things have now come to pass we've seen the minutes we've seen the penalties we've seen a bit of form"

Hibbo discusses Dominic Calvert-Lewin's performance, noting that while he may not have consistently scored throughout the season, his recent form is significant. Hibbo points out that initial doubts about Calvert-Lewin's playing time and penalty duties have been resolved, with him now consistently featuring and taking penalties, contributing to his current form.

"i think the fixtures coming up for arsenal for the next four as we know villa at home now my personal opinion is that arsenal win that game and really just make it like a real classic arteta performance where they're going to win by like a goal to nil or something but that's my personal opinion especially with gabriel coming back into the side i think what chelsea did in the first half showed that villa can be dominated in the game but chelsea in the second half just don't have the personnel at the back to deal with transitions like we saw with watkins and all i think arsenal have that personnel to deal with those sort of things that emery might do so i think actually going for gabriel this week is okay of course i do think villa is a tough game and then afterwards they've got bournemouth and bournemouth are a bit of an awful position right now"

Nacho analyzes Arsenal's upcoming fixtures, particularly their match against Aston Villa. He predicts an Arsenal win, characterizing it as a typical "Arteta performance" likely to be a low-scoring affair. Nacho believes Arsenal's defensive personnel are well-equipped to handle Aston Villa's attacking threats, especially with Gabriel's return to the lineup.

"i think the easiest fixture you're going to get well so many's on penalties there's a fair chance that he's on penalties because obviously bournemouth's not there bruno's out of the picture i think when you're looking at that balanced underlying numbers the fact that he's got set pieces the fact that he's got penalties the fact that he's got that wolves fixture but i think you need to also have better fixtures to come i think he's got leeds and burnley i think maybe in the next two fixtures beyond that no by the time burnley rolls around he could have lost the pounds if bruno maybe comes back by that stage but i think people need to get on him and they need to get on him fast because this week he's we'll touch on it when we look at the individual 11 of five player simulations for goals and assists but i think he's a captaincy candidate this week"

Hibbo discusses Matheus Cunha's FPL potential, highlighting his favorable fixture against Wolves and the possibility of him taking penalties due to Bruno Fernandes's absence. Hibbo suggests that Cunha's underlying statistics, set-piece involvement, and penalty duties make him a strong captaincy candidate for the current week. However, he also notes that future fixtures might be less favorable.

"i think the turnaround for sunderland's pretty swift i think it's man city team the strength and depth is ridiculous that that is just going to account for something in this particular game and i always feel like city will just sweep aside teams like sunderland and in the form that they're in right now i'm just expecting haaland to bag a brace so i'm going to be honest that's the way i'm viewing and he'll be my captain"

Nacho expresses his confidence in Erling Haaland as a captaincy choice for the upcoming match against Sunderland. He believes Manchester City's depth and form will allow them to comfortably defeat Sunderland, and he anticipates Haaland scoring multiple goals. Nacho's strong conviction leads him to select Haaland as his captain.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The FPL Scoutcast" by Fantasy Football Scout - Mentioned as the name of the podcast series.

Articles & Papers

"11 of 5 Player Simulations" - Referenced as a guide for captaincy decisions.

People

Andy FPL Mode - Host of the podcast.
Nacho - Co-host of the podcast.
Hibbo - Co-host of the podcast.
Kevin Cole - Mentioned as a guest on the podcast.
Jamie Vardy - Referenced for his record of scoring in consecutive matches.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DCL) - Discussed for his recent form and goal-scoring record.
Chris Wood - Mentioned as a comparison for Dominic Calvert-Lewin's form.
Sam - Mentioned in comparison to Chewy regarding FPL points.
Chewy - Discussed as an FPL player with a recent haul.
Thiago - Mentioned as a player whose form is declining.
Bruno Fernandes - Discussed in relation to his absence from upcoming games.
Mateta - Mentioned as a player who had a skewed game week.
Mourinho - Mentioned in relation to a potential managerial appointment.
Rob Edwards - Mentioned as the manager of Wolves.
Jesus Christ - Mentioned hypothetically in relation to managerial appointments.
De Bruyne - Mentioned as a player who scored 11 points.
Richards - Mentioned as a player who is touch and go for a game.
Anderson - Mentioned as a player who is a potential bench option.
O'Riley - Mentioned as a player who has been disappointing recently.
Semenyo - Mentioned as a player who scored nine points and was a potential transfer target.
Timber - Mentioned as a player who missed out on a game and is a doubt.
Sarr - Mentioned as a player who was brought into a team and scored 10 points.
Vardy - Mentioned for his record of scoring in consecutive matches.
Arteta - Mentioned in relation to his comments about player availability.
Emery - Mentioned in relation to Aston Villa's performance.
Watkins - Mentioned for his performance against Chelsea.
Morgan Rogers - Mentioned in relation to Aston Villa's performance.
Maddison - Mentioned as a player who could be a cash cow.
Cole Palmer - Mentioned as a potential future transfer target.
Foden - Mentioned as a player who scored two points.
Haaland - Mentioned as a player who blanked when captained and as a captaincy option.
Eteke - Mentioned as a player who scored five points and was a transfer target.
Raya - Mentioned as a goalkeeper with two points.
Keane - Mentioned as a player who scored 10 points and was a transfer target.
Mukiele - Mentioned as a player who got four points.
Shaka - Mentioned as a player who got an assist and six points.
Verts - Mentioned as a player who scored 10 points and was a transfer target.
Minto - Mentioned as a player who scored one point.
Cruyff Jr. - Mentioned as a player who started and was substituted.
Lavie - Mentioned as a player in a team and a bench option.
Virgil van Dijk - Mentioned as a player who conceded once again.
Gabriel - Mentioned as a defender who is back and available.
Dorgu - Mentioned as a player who scored a cracking volley and got a clean sheet.
Tarkowski - Mentioned as a player who has been ticking over nicely.
Declan Rice - Mentioned as a player who frees up money and a potential transfer target.
Cunha - Mentioned as a player who is eighth on the XGI list and a captaincy candidate.
Solanke - Mentioned as a potential transfer target.
Gordon - Mentioned as a player with upside.
Sanchez - Mentioned as a potential long-term goalkeeper option.
Calafiori - Mentioned in relation to a potential injury.
Lewis Skelly - Mentioned as a potential left-back for Arsenal.
Lewis Hall - Mentioned as a player with solid minutes and upside.
Fimpong - Mentioned as a potential defender option.
Zola - Mentioned in relation to Chelsea players.
Drogba - Mentioned in relation to Chelsea players.
Cucurella - Mentioned as a player for Chelsea.

Organizations & Institutions

Fantasy Football Scout - Mentioned as the provider of the podcast.
The Farmer's Dog - Mentioned as a sponsor of the episode.
Tito's Handmade Vodka - Mentioned as a sponsor of the episode.
Fifth Generation Inc. - Mentioned as the distiller and bottler of Tito's Handmade Vodka.
Blinds.com - Mentioned as a sponsor of the episode.
NFL (National Football League) - Mentioned in relation to FPL.
Aston Villa - Mentioned as an opponent for Arsenal.
Bournemouth - Mentioned as an opponent for Chelsea and Arsenal.
Brentford - Mentioned in relation to a game against Bournemouth.
Wolves - Mentioned as an opponent for Manchester United and Liverpool.
Leeds - Mentioned as an opponent for Manchester United and Liverpool.
Sunderland - Mentioned as an opponent for Manchester City.
Spurs - Mentioned as an opponent for Anderson.
Everton - Mentioned as an opponent for Keane and Burnley.
Burnley - Mentioned as an opponent for Everton and Manchester City.
Nottingham Forest - Mentioned as an opponent for Everton.
Fulham - Mentioned as a team with defensive options.
Arsenal - Mentioned in relation to their defensive strength and upcoming fixtures.
Chelsea - Mentioned in relation to their defensive performance and upcoming fixtures.
Manchester City - Mentioned in relation to their attacking strength and upcoming fixtures.
Liverpool - Mentioned in relation to their attacking strength and upcoming fixtures.
Manchester United - Mentioned in relation to their attacking strength and upcoming fixtures.
Newcaslte - Mentioned in relation to their defensive strength and upcoming fixtures.
Palace - Mentioned as an opponent for Anderson.
West Ham - Mentioned as an opponent for Monte.
Liberty Mutual - Mentioned as a sponsor of the episode.
Meyer - Mentioned as a sponsor of the episode.
Verbo - Mentioned as a sponsor of the episode.
Rubrik - Mentioned as a sponsor of the episode.

Websites & Online Resources

thefarmersdog.com - Mentioned for a discount on pet food.
blinds.com - Mentioned for an end-of-year sale.
scout website - Mentioned for customizing FPL tables.
live fpl by ragaball - Mentioned for an app to track price changes.
1800contacts.com - Mentioned for contact lens delivery.
blueapron.com - Mentioned for meal delivery services.

Other Resources

XGI Table - Mentioned as a table to look at for player performance.
C-Bit Table - Mentioned as a table showing defensive contributions.
Expected Goal Involvement (XGI) - Mentioned as a metric for player performance.
Expected Goals (xG) - Mentioned as a metric for player performance.
Expected Assists (xA) - Mentioned as a metric for player performance.
Defensive Contribution (Defcon) - Mentioned as a metric for player performance.
Bench Jam - Mentioned as a strategy in FPL.
Green Arrow - Mentioned as a positive movement in FPL rank.
Red Arrow - Mentioned as a negative movement in FPL rank.
Community Teams - Mentioned as a feature of the podcast.
Bus Teams - Mentioned as a category discussed on the podcast.
Predictions for the week - Mentioned as a segment of the podcast.
Goal predictions - Mentioned as a segment of the podcast.
Attacking and Defensive Teams - Mentioned as a segment of the podcast.
Player Simulations - Mentioned as a tool for captaincy decisions.
Template - Mentioned in relation to FPL team structure.
Rotation - Mentioned as a factor in FPL team selection.
Release Clause - Mentioned in relation to player transfers.
Free Hit - Mentioned as an FPL chip.