Identify "Goals Imminent" Players for Fantasy Football Advantage - Episode Hero Image

Identify "Goals Imminent" Players for Fantasy Football Advantage

Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Players with high underlying metrics but low output, like Matheus Cunha, are statistically due for attacking returns, suggesting a potential for significant point gains despite current underperformance.
  • Players like Harry Wilson and Tavernier, exhibiting consistent shot volume and underlying data, represent "goals imminent" opportunities, offering differential upside as their output catches up to their underlying performance.
  • The "Goals Imminent" table identifies players with a high shot rate and expected goals (xG) delta, indicating a statistical likelihood of future attacking returns that may not yet be reflected in their actual output.
  • Focusing on players with a high "minutes per shot" rate, such as Matheus Cunha, reveals efficiency in generating scoring opportunities, even if actual goals are currently lagging behind their shot volume.
  • The concept of a "holy trinity" of elite midfielders (e.g., Saka, Foden, Bruno Fernandes) suggests a core strategy for accumulating points, with these players consistently delivering double-digit hauls.
  • Players like Declan Rice, despite steady chance creation, may not be optimal buys if their shots are predominantly from distance, indicating a lower probability of direct attacking returns compared to more advanced players.
  • The analysis of players like Mateta, who are substituted frequently despite good underlying metrics, highlights the risk of limited playing time impacting their potential for consistent returns.

Deep Dive

The Fantasy Football Scout podcast, "GW17: FPL Goals Imminent," identifies players statistically due for attacking returns by analyzing underlying data that suggests current output does not match performance. This approach aims to provide a predictive edge for fantasy football managers by highlighting players whose underlying metrics indicate potential for future points, even if their recent output has been inconsistent.

The core of the analysis centers on the "Goals Imminent" and "Assist Imminent" tables, which track players with significant shot or chance creation numbers but a low return of goals or assists. This focus on statistical underperformance aims to capitalize on players who are generating opportunities but have been unlucky or inefficient, suggesting a regression to the mean is likely. For instance, Matheus Cunha is highlighted for a remarkable 19 shots in four games, with 13 inside the box, yet only two goals, indicating a strong underlying performance that could lead to increased returns. Similarly, Tavernier's consistent shot volume and recent attacking returns suggest he is a player whose underlying data supports his current form and potential for continued success. The second-order implication is that by identifying these players, managers can gain an advantage over those who rely solely on recent form, potentially acquiring undervalued assets before their statistical performance translates into points and price rises.

The implications extend to strategic transfer decisions and team building. Players like Harry Wilson and Dominic Solanke are discussed as potential targets due to favorable fixtures and statistical indicators, offering avenues for managers to improve their squads. The podcast also touches upon the strategic use of transfers and chips like the bench boost and free hit, suggesting that Game Weeks 17 and 18 present opportunities for high scores due to favorable matchups. The emphasis on data-driven insights over mere recent form implies a shift in fantasy football strategy towards a more analytical approach, where understanding player metrics can provide a more reliable pathway to success than simply following popular opinion or recent point hauls. The discussion of how team size and player availability (like those leaving for AFCON) affect these tables also highlights the dynamic nature of the game and the need for continuous data analysis.

Action Items

  • Analyze player data: For 5-10 players identified as "goals imminent," calculate their expected goals (xG) versus actual goals scored over the last four matches to identify underperformers.
  • Track player shot metrics: For 3-5 players with high shot volume but low goal return, measure their shots inside the box and on target percentage to assess conversion efficiency.
  • Evaluate player fixture strength: For players with upcoming favorable fixtures (e.g., against teams with defensive weaknesses), assess their historical performance in similar matchups.
  • Measure minutes per shot rate: For 3-5 players with high shot volume, calculate their minutes per shot to understand their efficiency in getting shooting opportunities.
  • Compare player transfer targets: For 2-3 potential player transfers, use a comparison tool to analyze their recent form, fixture difficulty, and underlying statistics against current team assets.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"I don't know how long it's going to continue hopefully hopefully more no idea i mean in theory having all these extra transfers should uh you know get every team in tip top condition yeah in the expecting a green but we can't all get green so no no i mean it's same here honestly it just keeps getting better and better"

Joe is expressing optimism about his current run of positive game weeks ("green arrows") and the potential for future success due to having extra transfers available. He acknowledges that not everyone can achieve consistent positive results, but he is personally experiencing a favorable period.

"I'm bench boosting this week and I have uh I do urge people to have a listen or or watch the video and podcast I did with tom freeman because he's looking at bench boosting as well so we do a lot about bench boosting if you're looking at that um but it just works out a bit better for me I've got the likes of like minter um I've got um I think actually think rodon against palace is actually not too bad"

The speaker is discussing their strategy of "bench boosting," a fantasy football tactic involving maximizing points from all 15 players in their squad. They recommend consulting a specific podcast with Tom Freeman for more information on this strategy and mention some of the players they have selected for their bench.

"So we have aven nilson we had haaland we had kunnia and bomo casemiro marlon miteta foden macallister and tavernier -- so aven nilson a goal brilliant haaland two goals we did say last week we're cheating having haaland on but nevertheless he was on the goals due he was a goal obviously yeah because of their form kunnia goal done -- casemiro goal and the best one of all tavernier goal and an assist and a huge haul and we said last week one day we're going to get him in and captain him wish i'd done it this last week"

This quote summarizes the successful predictions from the previous week's "Goals Imminent" table. The speaker lists players who were identified as likely to score or assist, and then confirms that many of them, including Haaland, Cunha, Casemiro, and particularly Tavernier, delivered significant returns. The speaker expresses regret for not captaining Tavernier after his exceptional performance.

"So he's had three big chances last four game weeks all these tables are the last four game weeks three big chances that's almost a big chance a game missed two of them scored with one of them he's had is this right yes it is 19 shots you're not you're not kidding so he's had 19 shots in four game weeks -- 13 of those inside the box -- this is just three starts as well he was a sub in one of them or didn't play on target five of those on target scored a goal should have got another at least another"

The speaker is detailing the impressive underlying statistics for Matheus Cunha over the last four game weeks. They highlight his high number of shots, particularly those taken inside the box, and his creation of significant scoring opportunities ("big chances"), suggesting he is performing well despite a potentially lower goal return than his underlying data might indicate.

"The advantage that icardi has over isak is that he looks bothered yeah yeah and that's like good and he doesn't have a dodgy groin all the time so and he's certainly got the form now so yeah oh yeah he is undoubtedly the one"

The speaker is comparing two players, Icardi and Isak, discussing their current form and fitness. They favor Icardi because he appears more engaged and is not hampered by recurring injuries, suggesting Icardi is the more reliable choice based on current performance and availability.

"I'm bench boosting this week and I have uh I do urge people to have a listen or or watch the video and podcast I did with tom freeman because he's looking at bench boosting as well so we do a lot about bench boosting if you're looking at that -- but it just works out a bit better for me I've got the likes of like minter -- I've got -- I think actually think rodon against palace is actually not too bad"

The speaker is discussing their "bench boost" strategy, a fantasy football tactic. They recommend a specific podcast with Tom Freeman for more details on this strategy and mention players like Minter and Rodon as potential bench options, indicating they are carefully selecting players to maximize their squad's points potential.

Resources

External Resources

Books

Videos & Documentaries

Research & Studies

  • Goals Imminent table - Used to identify players due for attacking returns based on underlying data.
  • Assist Imminent table - Used to identify players due for attacking returns based on underlying data.

Tools & Software

  • Comparison tool in the Fantasy Football Scout members area - Used to compare player options for transfer decisions.

Articles & Papers

People

  • Marc - Co-host of the Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips podcast.
  • Joe - Co-host of the Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips podcast.
  • Tom Freeman - Mentioned for a video and podcast discussing bench boosting strategies.
  • Kevin Cole - Mentioned as a guest on the podcast.
  • Anthony - Mentioned as a player who had a strong start but then dropped off.
  • Brian Bomo - Mentioned as a player going to AFCON.
  • Amad Diallo - Mentioned as a player who scored and was tipped for an assist.
  • Diego Gomez - Mentioned as a player at the top of a table but suspended.
  • Rutter - Mentioned as a player for Brighton.
  • Welbeck - Mentioned in relation to Rutter playing in his role.
  • Newcastle fan - Mentioned in relation to Sunderland.
  • Sunderland fan - Mentioned in relation to Newcastle.
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin - Mentioned as a goal machine.
  • Jude Bellingham - Mentioned as a player in a similar price range to Fernandez.
  • Harry Wilson - Mentioned as a player considered for transfers.
  • Jadon Sancho - Mentioned as a player who had a strong start but then dropped off.
  • Thiago - Mentioned as a player who plays the full match.
  • Creepy Jr - Mentioned as a player who gets attacking returns when coming on as a substitute.
  • Bukayo Saka - Mentioned as part of a "holy trinity" of midfielders and for his attacking returns.
  • Declan Rice - Mentioned as a teammate of Saka and for his set-piece involvement.
  • Dominic Szoboszlai - Mentioned as a versatile player for Liverpool with potential attacking contributions.
  • Florian Wirtz - Mentioned as a player not gelling with his team.
  • Icardi - Mentioned as a player who looks bothered and has form.
  • Isak - Mentioned as a player who could start with Icardi or be replaced by him.
  • Elliott Anderson - Mentioned as a player on the table but slipping down.
  • Sangaré - Mentioned as a player going to AFCON.
  • Joelinton - Mentioned as a player in a similar price point with good form.
  • Martin Ødegaard - Mentioned as an expensive player to monitor.
  • Pedro Neto - Mentioned as a player for Crystal Palace.
  • Alcaraz - Mentioned as a potential player for Everton's front line.
  • Barry - Mentioned as a potential player for Everton's front line.
  • O'Neil - Mentioned as a potential player for Everton's front line.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Fantasy Football Scout - Mentioned as the source of data and a website.
  • FFSCOUT PREMIUM - Mentioned as a premium service.
  • Bluesky - Mentioned as a social media platform.
  • TikTok - Mentioned as a social media platform.
  • Instagram - Mentioned as a social media platform.
  • Facebook - Mentioned as a social media platform.
  • WhatsApp - Mentioned as a communication platform.
  • Mazda - Mentioned for their CX-50 hybrid, CX-5, and CX-90 models.
  • Paul Miller Mazda - Mentioned as a dealership.
  • Vrbo - Mentioned as a vacation rental platform.
  • Manchester United - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Aston Villa - Mentioned as an opponent for Manchester United.
  • Newcastle - Mentioned as an opponent for Manchester United.
  • Wolves - Mentioned as an opponent for Manchester United.
  • Brighton - Mentioned as a team with patchy fixtures.
  • Sunderland - Mentioned as an opponent for Brighton.
  • Liverpool - Mentioned as an opponent for Brighton.
  • Burnley - Mentioned as an opponent for Bournemouth.
  • Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Brentford - Mentioned as an opponent for Bournemouth.
  • Chelsea - Mentioned as a potential future club for a player.
  • Arsenal - Mentioned as a team with potential double defense.
  • Crystal Palace - Mentioned as a team with congested fixtures.
  • Everton - Mentioned as a team with potential players up front.
  • Spurs - Mentioned as an opponent for Nottingham Forest.
  • Nottingham Forest - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Man City - Mentioned as an opponent for West Ham.
  • West Ham - Mentioned as an opponent for Man City.
  • European competition - Mentioned in relation to Crystal Palace's fixture congestion.
  • FA Cup - Mentioned as an important competition for Crystal Palace.
  • League Cup - Mentioned as an important competition for Crystal Palace.
  • Sports Social Podcast Network - Mentioned as the network for the podcast.

Courses & Educational Resources

Websites & Online Resources

  • FFSCOUT PREMIUM - https://bit.ly/FFScoutPOD
  • Twitter - https://x.com/ffscout
  • Bluesky - https://bsky.app/profile/ffscoutfpl.bsky.social
  • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@ffscout
  • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ffscout_/
  • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/fantasyfootballscout/
  • WhatsApp - https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbA2A9PDTkK5r73WyM1g
  • podcastchoices.com - Mentioned for ad choices.
  • blueapron.com - Mentioned for meal kits.
  • blueapron.com/terms - Mentioned for terms and conditions.
  • depop.com - Mentioned as a selling platform.

Podcasts & Audio

  • Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips - The podcast where the discussion takes place.
  • Goals Imminent Podcast - A segment of the Fantasy Football Scout podcast.

Other Resources

  • FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The game being discussed.
  • GW17 - Game Week 17 of the FPL season.
  • Goals Imminent - A metric or table used to identify players due for goals.
  • Assist Imminent - A metric or table used to identify players due for assists.
  • Underlying data - Data used to predict player performance.
  • Attacking return - A goal or an assist in FPL.
  • Green arrow - An increase in rank in FPL.
  • Free hit - An FPL chip that allows unlimited transfers for one gameweek.
  • Bench boost - An FPL chip that doubles the points of players on the bench.
  • Underlying data - Data used to predict player performance.
  • xG delta - A metric related to expected goals.
  • AFCON - Africa Cup of Nations, a tournament causing player absences.
  • Big chance - A significant scoring opportunity in football.
  • Underperformers - Players whose performance is below expectations.
  • Statistical underperformers - Players whose statistical output does not match their potential.
  • Goals due - Players statistically likely to score.
  • Assist due - Players statistically likely to provide an assist.
  • Underlying data - Data used to predict player performance.
  • Expected goals (xG) - A metric measuring the quality of a shot.
  • Expected assists (xA) - A metric measuring the likelihood of a pass leading to a goal.
  • Minutes per shot rate - A metric indicating how frequently a player shoots.
  • Fixture shift - Changes in the schedule of matches.
  • Rotation - When teams change their starting lineup frequently.
  • Differential - A player with low ownership who could perform well.
  • Cameos - Short appearances as a substitute.
  • Clean sheet potential - The likelihood of a team preventing the opposition from scoring.
  • Yellow card suspension - A ban incurred after receiving a certain number of yellow cards.
  • Four yellow cards - A specific number of yellow cards that leads to a suspension.
  • Holy trinity - A group of highly-rated players in FPL.
  • Bonus points - Additional points awarded in FPL for certain actions.
  • Defensive points (defcon) - Points awarded for defensive actions.
  • Set pieces - Free kicks, corners, and penalties.
  • European game - A match in a European club competition.
  • EFL Cup quarter-final - A specific stage of a cup competition.
  • Bench boosters - Players who are part of a bench boost strategy.
  • Triple captaincy shout - A player considered for the triple captaincy chip.
  • Free hitting - A strategy involving the free hit chip.
  • Mini league - A small private league within FPL.
  • Most transferred player - The player most frequently bought by FPL managers.
  • Curse of the most transferred player - A perceived phenomenon where players bought by many managers underperform.

---
Handpicked links, AI-assisted summaries. Human judgment, machine efficiency.
This content is a personally curated review and synopsis derived from the original podcast episode.