Prioritize "Goals Imminent" Players for Consistent FPL Returns
TL;DR
- Players like Declan Rice accumulate points through consistent defensive actions and bonus points, offering a reliable floor even without direct attacking returns, making them valuable assets for steady FPL performance.
- Midfielders such as Mateus Cunha, who exhibit high shot volumes and on-target attempts, are positioned to capitalize on underlying statistical potential, suggesting imminent attacking returns despite current output.
- The "Goals Imminent" and "Assist Imminent" tables highlight players with strong underlying data (shots, chances created) that outpaces their actual goal or assist output, indicating potential for future point hauls.
- Players like Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice demonstrate how consistent involvement in set pieces and bonus point potential can lead to significant FPL scores, even when direct goal contributions are limited.
- The rapid succession of festive fixtures necessitates a focus on squad depth and avoiding dwelling on single gameweek results, treating the period as one extended gameweek to manage rotation and maximize overall points.
- Identifying players with high expected goal involvement (xGI) who are underperforming their statistical potential, such as Jeremy Pino, presents opportunities for tactical transfers that can yield significant returns.
Deep Dive
The core argument is that Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers should prioritize players whose underlying statistical performance significantly outpaces their actual goal and assist output, as these "Goals Imminent" and "Assist Imminent" players are statistically due for returns. This analytical approach, focusing on expected goal involvement (xGI) and shot data rather than just recent points, allows for proactive team selection and can provide a competitive edge, especially during the dense festive fixture schedule where consistent point-scoring is key to overall league position.
The primary second-order implication of focusing on "Goals Imminent" players is the potential for asymmetric returns in FPL. By identifying players who are generating high-quality chances and shots but have not yet converted them into goals or assists, managers can acquire assets at potentially lower price points or with lower ownership than players who have already achieved their statistical potential. This proactive strategy allows managers to capitalize on a player's upward trajectory before their FPL price increases or their ownership becomes widespread, thereby gaining a differential advantage. Furthermore, this analytical approach mitigates the risk of investing in players whose recent high scores are unsustainable or based on luck, instead grounding selections in predictable statistical regression towards the mean.
A critical downstream effect of this strategy emerges during congested fixture periods, such as the festive season discussed. The rapid succession of games (Game Weeks 18 through 21 are treated as one continuous period) means that a single bad performance or a statistical anomaly is less indicative of future form than consistent underlying performance. Players identified through "Goals Imminent" metrics are more likely to deliver consistent points across multiple games, even if they don't score in every single fixture. This consistency is crucial for navigating the "four-game week" scenario, where the average target of 60 points per game week, totaling 240 points, becomes a benchmark for success. Managers who can maintain this level of output without significant red arrows are well-positioned for overall season-long gains.
The analysis also highlights the trade-offs and tensions inherent in player selection. For instance, while players like Declan Rice offer consistent FPL points through defensive actions and bonus points, they may not possess the same "goal imminent" potential as forwards or attacking midfielders. Similarly, players with difficult upcoming fixtures may still be attractive if their underlying data is strong, suggesting they can perform even against tougher opposition. The discussion around Semenyo exemplifies a significant second-order consideration: a player's potential transfer to a top club like Manchester City, while indicating a higher quality team, introduces rotation risk, potentially negating the very consistency that made him attractive. This necessitates a careful balance between immediate FPL gains and future uncertainty, particularly with the January transfer window looming.
Ultimately, the core implication for FPL managers is to move beyond reactive decision-making based on recent scores and embrace a data-driven, forward-looking approach. By understanding and applying the "Goals Imminent" and "Assist Imminent" metrics, managers can build more robust squads that are better equipped to handle fixture congestion, capitalize on player-form regressions, and achieve sustainable point accumulation throughout the season. The strategy suggests that consistent underlying performance, rather than sporadic explosive returns, is the more reliable path to FPL success.
Action Items
- Analyze player performance: For 3-5 key players, track shots, shots on target, and big chances missed over the last 4 matches to identify underperformers.
- Audit player selection criteria: For 3-5 players, calculate the correlation between their underlying stats (e.g., expected goal involvement) and actual FPL output to identify potential value.
- Create a fixture analysis framework: For upcoming game weeks 18-21, map player fixture difficulty against projected rotation to inform transfer decisions.
- Measure team structure impact: For 3-5 transfers made, track the impact on overall team rank over the next 4 game weeks to evaluate transfer strategy effectiveness.
- Implement a bench strategy: For the next 4 game weeks, ensure at least 2 reliable bench options to mitigate rotation risks during the festive fixture congestion.
Key Quotes
"I mean so moons is not around obviously salah's not around so starts to find but that will mean that he's sort of relied on for that creativity but also he's got that goal threat so no goals but eight shots last four five inside the box so that's good he's had a big chance missed it a couple on target so he's shooting close range occasionally on target he's only 5 8 i think he is a good differential and he's a good enabler at 5 8"
The speaker highlights Jeremy Pino's underlying statistics, noting his eight shots in the last four matches with five inside the box. This suggests that despite not scoring, Pino is actively involved in attacking plays and generating opportunities close to the goal. The speaker also points out Pino's low price point, indicating he could be a valuable differential or enabler for fantasy football teams.
"And the fourth just right behind him is our next entry bournemouth attacker david brooks he's only started one of this sample size four matches the other cameos were only 31 minutes so it's i guess in one respect it's impressive to see him here in such little game time but also anyone considering a purchase gets immediately deterred by that game time"
This quote identifies David Brooks as a player with promising underlying statistics, appearing on a "Goals Imminent" table despite limited recent starting opportunities. The speaker acknowledges that his inclusion is impressive given his minimal game time but also recognizes that this lack of consistent starts would make potential fantasy football managers hesitant to select him.
"I mean these are big chances some of them as well he's had three big chances and missed them all it's minutes as well yeah you know i'm just not interested i mean he may have pushed himself ahead of gittens um in terms of starting on the left because he did come off the bench to score twice in the efl cup quarter final the other week but that was against cardiff two divisions lower that doesn't really sort of relate to the premier league what we're looking at"
The speaker discusses Alejandro Garnacho's performance, noting he has missed three "big chances" and is not a player they are currently interested in for fantasy football. While acknowledging Garnacho's potential to have pushed ahead of another player in the starting lineup due to recent cup performances, the speaker dismisses these as being against a lower-division opponent, deeming them not relevant to Premier League form.
"So yeah he's he's a bit weird with his shot but he's done enough to get on this table what have we got next back to crystal palace they the players do seem a bit tired right now they've just lost four one at leeds yeah there's problems with richards as well now so for those that don't know there's have a look at the article on fantasy football scout but there was the match report there was saying richard i mean richards was stretched off and and it i think he's had to have stitches and they were the manager i think he was saying two things i think he said we'll have to see for the next game but at the same time he's he was saying we'll see him in the new year or something so i it's unclear at the moment"
This quote introduces Jean-Philippe Mateta, describing his shooting habits as "weird" but acknowledging he has done enough to feature on the "Goals Imminent" table. The speaker then pivots to discuss Crystal Palace's general team performance, noting their recent heavy defeat and an injury to Richards, with the extent of the injury being unclear but potentially keeping him out until the new year.
"So yeah i i like those kind of players you don't want a whole team of them because they're not going to do it every week and also that's boring you've probably not got many goal scorers in your side then but yeah having like a good sprinkling of those types of players is good a mix of the explosive players and mixed in with the consistent players definitely"
The speaker expresses a preference for having a "sprinkling" of players who consistently accumulate points, even if they do not always deliver explosive hauls. They argue that a mix of these consistent players with more explosive options is beneficial for a fantasy football team, cautioning against having too many of these types of players as it could lead to a lack of goal-scoring threats.
"So yeah i i do urge people not to buy him if i do because i don't want his price to go up yeah if we're just all having an agreement to hold off until i make my moves yeah yeah that sounds good"
This quote reveals a strategic approach to fantasy football transfers, where the speaker urges others not to purchase a particular player to prevent their price from increasing before the speaker makes their own move. This highlights a tactic of influencing the market to gain a potential advantage.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Fantasy Football Scout Members Area" - Mentioned as a source for useful stats and features.
Articles & Papers
- "Goals Imminent" (Scout's Website) - Mentioned as a written article corresponding to the podcast topic.
- "Weekly Differential Article" (Fantasy Football Scout) - Mentioned as featuring Le Fée.
People
- Marc - Co-host of the Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips podcast.
- Joe - Co-host of the Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips podcast.
- Yaya Touré - Referenced for his 100% penalty conversion rate record.
- Tom Freeman - Mentioned in relation to a video discussing transfer targets.
Organizations & Institutions
- Fantasy Football Scout (FFS) - Host of the podcast and provider of data.
- AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned for their susceptibility to center forward goals.
- Tottenham Hotspur - Mentioned as not being susceptible to center forward goals.
- Manchester United - Mentioned as a team with problems despite being better than Bournemouth.
- Arsenal - Mentioned in relation to player transfers and team coverage.
- Nottingham Forest - Mentioned in relation to player Anderson.
- Leeds United - Mentioned in relation to player Okafor and their fixtures.
- Newcastle United - Mentioned in relation to Leeds' away fixtures.
- Crystal Palace - Mentioned in relation to player Mateta and potential issues with Richards.
- West Ham - Mentioned as a team Raul Jimenez will play next.
- Fulham - Mentioned as having poor long-term fixtures.
- Everton - Mentioned in relation to Bukayo Saka's attacking returns streak ending.
- Brentford - Mentioned as a team Marcus Tavernier will face.
- Chelsea - Mentioned in relation to player Pedro Neto and potential January transfer window impacts.
- Liverpool - Mentioned in relation to player Gravenberch and fixtures.
- Manchester City - Mentioned in relation to potential transfers for Semenyo.
Websites & Online Resources
- FFSCOUT PREMIUM (https://bit.ly/FFScoutPOD) - Mentioned as a premium offering.
- Twitter (https://x.com/ffscout) - Mentioned as a social media platform for FFS.
- Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/ffscoutfpl.bsky.social) - Mentioned as a social media platform for FFS.
- TikTok (https://www.tiktok.com/@ffscout) - Mentioned as a social media platform for FFS.
- Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/ffscout_/) - Mentioned as a social media platform for FFS.
- Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/fantasyfootballscout/) - Mentioned as a social media platform for FFS.
- WhatsApp (https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbA2A9PDTkK5r73WyM1g) - Mentioned as a channel for FFS.
- podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Mentioned in relation to ad choices.
- blueapron.com - Mentioned for meal kit offerings.
- blueapron.com/terms - Mentioned for terms and conditions.
Other Resources
- Goals Imminent Table - A statistical table for players due for goals.
- Assist Imminent Table - A statistical table for players due for assists.
- Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) - A metric used to identify underachievers.
- Expected Goals (xG) - A metric used in analysis.
- Bonus Points System (BPS) - A system mentioned in relation to player points.
- Clean Sheet Points - A type of point awarded in FPL.
- Bench Boost Chip - A fantasy football chip.
- Release Clause - A contractual term mentioned in relation to player transfers.
- Tactical Suspension - A type of suspension mentioned for Semenyo.
- January Transfer Window - A period for player transfers.
- FA Cup - A competition mentioned in relation to a break in fixtures.