Fantasy Premier League: Prioritize Form and Expected Points Over Fixtures
TL;DR
- Prioritizing form over fixtures, like with Foden, can yield consistent hauls and attacking returns, even against statistically strong defenses, by capitalizing on player momentum.
- Doubling up on Arsenal's attack with Saka, who is on penalties and has strong expected goal involvement, offers multiple routes to points against a defense with zero clean sheets.
- Investing in defenders like Timber, who possess attacking threat and strong underlying stats, can provide unexpected points through goals and assists beyond clean sheet potential.
- Targeting players like Bruno Fernandes, who are on penalties and have high shot/chance creation numbers, offers a reliable floor of points and significant upside potential.
- Exploiting teams with the worst recent defensive records, such as Burnley and Leeds, allows for attacking double-ups that capitalize on opponent weaknesses for consistent returns.
- Considering differentials like Pedro Neto, with low ownership but consistent attacking returns, can provide a competitive edge by leveraging under-the-radar performers.
- Utilizing tools like the FPL Plan tool to aim for a predicted points score above 60 and a high percentage of excellence helps optimize team selection for maximum potential.
Deep Dive
This briefing outlines strategic transfer targets for Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 16, emphasizing player form and expected points over strict fixture difficulty. The core implication is that while fixture difficulty remains a consideration, prioritizing players with consistent recent performance and high underlying statistics offers a more reliable path to points, especially with the added complexity of multiple free transfers available.
The analysis focuses on identifying players who deliver consistent returns, even against tougher defenses, and those who benefit from favorable matchups against statistically weak opposing teams. For instance, Arsenal's Saka is highlighted for his consistent expected goal involvement and penalty duties, making him a strong captaincy option against Wolves' poor defense. Similarly, Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes is recommended due to his recent surge in form, including an 18-point haul and consistent attacking output, despite Bournemouth's recent defensive struggles. The strategy also considers players like Chelsea's Chalobah and Fulham's Andersen who offer both defensive solidity and potential attacking returns, making them valuable assets. The podcast also touches on the debate between captaining established stars like Haaland, who possesses immense individual potential, versus in-form midfielders like Saka, underscoring the trade-off between reliable point-scoring and the risk of missing out on explosive hauls by not captaining the highest-owned players. The use of tools like the FPL Plan tool is presented as a method to optimize team selection based on predicted points and statistical excellence, guiding managers toward a balanced squad that leverages both individual brilliance and favorable matchups.
Ultimately, the key takeaway is that a data-driven approach, prioritizing consistent performers and exploiting weaknesses in opposing defenses, is crucial for navigating Gameweek 16. This strategy suggests that while Haaland remains a formidable option, diversifying captaincy choices and focusing on players demonstrating sustained form can mitigate risk and maximize points potential, especially when utilizing multiple free transfers.
Action Items
- Audit player selection process: Analyze 5 recent transfer decisions for correlation between predicted points and actual performance to refine future picks.
- Track captaincy consistency: For 3-5 gameweeks, measure the impact of sticking to one captain versus rotating based on fixture.
- Measure transfer impact: For 5-10 key transfers, calculate the net point gain or loss over a 3-gameweek period.
- Evaluate fixture vs. form strategy: For 3-5 players, compare performance when prioritizing form over favorable matchups.
Key Quotes
"i think this has been published on thursday morning on youtube so do bear that in mind also we are all a wash with five afcon transfers this week lots of transfer activity already so some of the picks you may want to bring in anyway as they're good for number of weeks some of them aren't some of them are just reminder before we go on do press that like button it really helps us out and do remember to subscribe for update with our latest videos and podcasts and do check out latest membership offers fantasy football scout co uk for all the latest tools and gadgets to help you climb up your mini league"
Joe, the presenter, highlights the timing of the podcast publication and the significant number of available transfers due to AFCON. Joe emphasizes that some recommended players are long-term assets, while others are short-term solutions, advising listeners to consider their own team needs. Joe also encourages audience engagement by asking for likes and subscriptions, and directing them to membership offers for additional tools.
"i've gone for a 3 5 2 i like a lot of midfielders at the moment arguably you could go for a 4 4 2 but then still still lots of midfielders you want to get in there as well 4 5 1 maybe could be good but there's a couple of strikers i want so what i'm going to do especially for those listening to the podcast version i'm going to read out the players and then i'll go back from goalkeeper onwards upwards and then the bench just to say why i've got them and also it's got an expected points of 61 that's very strong on this app"
Joe explains his chosen formation, a 3-5-2, and justifies his preference for midfielders in the current game. Joe notes that other formations like 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 could also work but he has specific strikers in mind. Joe also mentions that the FPL Plan tool on the Fantasy Football Scout app generated an expected points score of 61 for his team, indicating its strength.
"we've got saka is first part of that saka against wolves the west midland side is the third worst defense this season and looks prime for the championship as well next time out they've got zero clean sheets saka is the best arsenal attacker currently in terms of expected goal involvement do check out the video i did earlier this week with tom freeman with his team review we have a bit of a deep dive into arsenal's assets there saka's currently the most attacking there got six returns plus deafcons every four matches and bonus two and he's also on pens who's got lots of routes to points there"
Joe identifies Saka as a key midfield pick, highlighting his favorable fixture against Wolves, who have a poor defensive record. Joe points out that Saka is Arsenal's most effective attacker based on expected goal involvement and has multiple avenues for scoring points, including penalties. Joe also references a previous video for a more in-depth analysis of Arsenal's assets.
"my personal policy at the moment which i might deviate because i saka is a very strong bet all depends on whether he plays tonight when i'm recording this and you'll know when you see this on thursday onwards my policy is really to sort of stick with one captain i think because how many of us i mean i've seen the of course social media oh i captained bruno fernandez last week and he blanked i captained haaland this week and he blanked and you miss bruno fernandez's haul you miss haaland's haul and so on so my policy is perhaps just stick with one whether it's saka whether it's bruno fernandez or haaland he's been the most reliable for goals i think i might just stick with haaland and just because that way yes you will get some blanks but you're going to get some hauls as well if you chop and change you run the risk of well what you could do is you could win the lottery and you could nail a double digit haul each time for each of those players and miss those blanks or you get the other way around and just blank blank blank blank blank and i'm not i i i just think i might end up just sticking with haaland it's just nice and safe for me but i do think saka's on paper and the robot says the best one"
Joe discusses his captaincy strategy, explaining his personal policy of sticking with one captain to avoid missing out on potential hauls from other players. Joe acknowledges that this approach may lead to some blanks but believes it offers more consistent returns than constantly switching captains. Joe mentions that while Haaland is his current choice for safety, Saka is statistically the better option according to the algorithm.
"on my bench i've got de bruyne very cheap this one de bruyne home to fulham alderetti home to newcastle might be deafcon points there mate i think sunday might be good esteve um home to fulham and margui at chelsea hopefully he won't be needed he's only 4 2 that's why he's there he probably won't play or get significant minutes you never know though"
Joe lists his bench players, noting that De Bruyne is a cheap option for his team. Joe suggests that Al Dakkak might provide "dephcon" points against Newcastle, and Esteve could also be a useful option at home to Fulham. Joe includes Margui from Chelsea as a very cheap player who is unlikely to get significant minutes but is included due to his low cost.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Holy Trinity" - Mentioned as a historical reference for dominant midfield pairings in FPL.
Articles & Papers
- "Team News" (Fantasy Football Scout) - Discussed as a regular Friday update providing crucial information.
- "Watchlist" (Fantasy Football Scout) - Mentioned as a resource for player considerations.
- "Team Reveals" (Fantasy Football Scout) - Referenced as content featuring specific FPL team selections.
People
- Joe - Host of the Fantasy Football Scout podcast, discussing FPL transfer targets.
- Kevin Cole - Mentioned as a guest and proprietor of the Unexpected Points newsletter.
- FPL General - Mentioned for his FPL strategy, specifically captaincy choices.
- Tom Freeman - Mentioned for his FPL team reveal and discussion of Arsenal assets.
Organizations & Institutions
- Fantasy Football Scout (FFS) - Primary source of FPL analysis, tools, and content.
- Arsenal - Referenced for their strong defensive record and attacking assets.
- Manchester City - Mentioned in relation to player performance and captaincy considerations.
- Crystal Palace - Discussed as a team with a strong defense.
- Aston Villa - Referenced for their fixture and potential assets.
- West Ham - Mentioned in relation to fixture analysis.
- Burnley - Discussed as a team with the worst attack.
- Fulham - Referenced for their fixture and potential assets.
- Brentford - Mentioned for their fixture and attacking potential.
- Leeds - Discussed as a team with the worst defense in recent matches.
- Chelsea - Referenced for their fixture and potential assets.
- Everton - Mentioned in relation to fixture analysis and their away-day attack.
- Tottenham - Referenced for their fixture.
- Norwich - Mentioned in relation to fixture analysis.
- Liverpool - Referenced for their fixture.
- Brighton - Mentioned in relation to fixture analysis.
- Bournemouth - Discussed as a team with recent defensive struggles.
- Manchester United - Referenced for player performance considerations.
- Newcastle - Mentioned in relation to fixture analysis and their away-day performance.
Tools & Software
- FFPL Plan tool (Fantasy Football Scout app) - Used to generate FPL team selections based on points score and percentage of excellence.
Other Resources
- FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The game context for all discussions.
- Gameweek 16 - The specific gameweek being analyzed for transfer targets.
- AFCON - Mentioned as a factor influencing transfer activity due to player availability.
- Expected Goals (xG) - A metric used to assess team attacking performance.
- Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) - A metric used to assess player attacking contribution.
- Dephcon - A metric used to assess player defensive actions.
- Clean Sheet - A defensive achievement referenced for its impact on FPL points.
- Haul - A significant FPL points return by a player.
- Free Hit - An FPL chip that allows unlimited transfers for one gameweek.
- Bench Boost - An FPL chip that doubles the points of players on the bench.
- Formation (3-5-2, 4-4-2, 4-5-1) - Tactical setups discussed for FPL teams.
- Captaincy - The FPL decision of selecting a player for double points.
- Ownership - The percentage of FPL managers who own a specific player.
- Differential - An FPL player owned by a small percentage of managers, offering potential for significant rank improvement.
- Zero Sugar Energy Drink - A product category mentioned in relation to Monster Ultra.