Fantasy Premier League: Navigating Injuries and Fixtures Strategically

Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips · December 25, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

The decision to transfer out a player like Bruno Fernandes, previously considered "invincible," highlights the inherent fragility of player availability and the cascading impact on team strategy and replacement choices.
Investing in players like Cunha or Vert, despite potential short-term form or fixture plays, is a strategic trade-off to address immediate needs, acknowledging the risk of future fixture shifts or player returns.
The discussion around Ekitike's potential as a replacement for injured strikers underscores the importance of analyzing player minutes and goal-scoring opportunities, especially when key attacking players are absent.
The strategic use of a "Free Hit" chip is debated, with the decision to save it for Gameweek 19 suggesting a preference for maximizing its impact on a gameweek with more favorable fixture concentrations.
The analysis of potential replacements for Bruno Fernandes, such as Gordon or Rogers, reveals a tension between current form, underlying statistics, and upcoming fixture difficulty, influencing long-term team composition.
The debate between investing in Mac Allister for a single gameweek versus a more consistent option like Schade or Rice demonstrates the trade-off between short-term gains and long-term team structure.
The prevalence of early transfers and the impact of unexpected injuries like Bruno Fernandes's emphasize the need for contingency planning and the potential for significant point swings based on unforeseen events.

Deep Dive

The core of this discussion revolves around navigating player injuries and fixture congestion in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) ahead of Gameweek 18, highlighting how strategic transfers can mitigate risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities. The implications extend beyond immediate point gains, influencing long-term team structure and player valuation as the season progresses.

The immediate concern is the impact of injuries to key players like Bruno Fernandes and potentially others, forcing managers to re-evaluate their squads. This situation creates a cascading effect: first, a need to replace injured players, and second, an opportunity to upgrade or restructure the team based on upcoming fixtures. For instance, Bruno's absence from Manchester United immediately elevates the potential of players like Mainoo and Kuni, especially given United's favorable upcoming schedule. This shift in a team's primary attacking threats means that identifying the new likely talisman becomes crucial for FPL managers.

A significant second-order implication is the tension between short-term "punts" and long-term strategic planning, particularly concerning the use of the "Free Hit" chip. While a player like Verts might offer a one-week punt against Wolves, the cost of using a transfer for such a temporary gain is weighed against the strategic advantage of saving transfers for Gameweek 19, which features heavily blanked fixtures for many teams. This decision highlights the trade-off between immediate point potential and the flexibility to build a strong squad for a specific, challenging gameweek. The discussion also reveals how player availability and fixture difficulty influence the perceived value of specific players, such as Mac Allister versus Sols for Liverpool, where the former is seen as a short-term solution while the latter represents a more sustainable, albeit potentially injury-prone, option.

Ultimately, the conversation underscores the dynamic nature of FPL squad management. The decision to transfer out players like Timber or Thiago for options like Keane and Ekteke reflects a proactive approach to capitalize on form and opportunity. However, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding player fitness, especially during the congested holiday period, means that even well-laid plans can be disrupted. The strategic use of transfers and chips, like the Free Hit, becomes paramount in managing these uncertainties and positioning teams for success in the latter half of the season, where consistent performers and well-structured squads are likely to outperform those reliant on reactive, short-term fixes.

Action Items

Audit player injury impact: For 3-5 key players with recent injuries (e.g., Bruno Fernandes, Richards), analyze their expected return timelines and assess the tactical implications for team selection and strategy.
Create a player performance tracking system: For 5-10 players, establish metrics to track expected goals (xG) and actual goals scored to identify potential over/underperformance and inform future transfer decisions.
Analyze fixture difficulty for 3-5 teams: Evaluate the upcoming 4-6 game fixture list for teams like Manchester United and Liverpool to identify optimal transfer targets and potential captaincy options.
Develop a contingency plan for unexpected player unavailability: For 2-3 key positions, identify at least two backup options that can be activated with minimal transfer cost or disruption.
Measure the impact of transfer strategy on team rank: Track the points gained or lost from 3-5 recent transfers to evaluate the effectiveness of transfer decisions and refine future approaches.

Key Quotes

"this is the last latest we could have left it because and we've taken in all information because as we speak we're speaking after the crystal palace game crystal palace arsenal game and chris richards has even been stretched off we've got injuries to isaac to bruno to hinkapi who i pronounced perfectly on this podcast first um so it's been quite a lot of carnage man"

The speaker explains that they are providing information very late in the process to ensure all available data, including recent injuries, is considered. This approach aims to give listeners the most up-to-date insights before the deadline. The mention of "carnage" highlights the unpredictable nature of player availability due to injuries.

"my philosophy like don't complain about bad luck never you can say you're lucky but don't complain about bad luck you are good like that and i've tried my best to stay very positive not too much negative but i've been getting beaten up real bad"

This quote illustrates a personal philosophy of managing expectations and emotional responses in fantasy sports. The speaker emphasizes the importance of not dwelling on misfortune, even when experiencing a string of negative outcomes. This approach prioritizes a positive mindset despite facing significant challenges.

"but the fixtures are also very very good so it's a case of what do you want to weigh up like will bruno be missed yes but does kuni still become a great fpl pick yes because who will take the corners mount and kuni who will take the free kicks mount and kuni who will take the penalties probably kuni"

The speaker is analyzing the impact of a key player's absence on team strategy. They suggest that despite the loss, favorable upcoming fixtures make another player a strong fantasy pick. The quote details how set-piece responsibilities, such as corners, free kicks, and penalties, will likely shift to other players, increasing their potential fantasy output.

"i done timber to keane and then i done uh thiago to ekitike so that's the two moves there was multiple ways this is one of the moves actually you put into my head last week actually and i thought it was not too bad because i didn't have to sacrifice just to remind people we were thinking of ekitike well before any you know it's not okay they're bandwagons but it was he was already a good pick last week"

This quote details specific player transfers made in a fantasy sports context. The speaker explains two key moves: replacing Timber with Keane and Thiago with Ekitike. They credit another individual with planting the idea for the Ekitike transfer, noting that this player was considered a good option even before becoming a popular choice.

"the only small little worry which i almost uh not found out after the uh transfer but that brave weight soon he's not ready yet but i'm sure i saw uh moyes say that he's going to be back soonish or do you think that's not even a not even an issue"

The speaker expresses a minor concern about a player's readiness following a transfer. They mention seeing a manager's statement about the player's impending return but question its significance. This highlights the uncertainty surrounding player fitness and its potential impact on fantasy team selections.

"because ultimately we still think forwards are a rubbish and right now we're struggling to find midfielders but they will come back in diaz is going to come back sa is going to come back really good midfielders are coming back so i didn't want to ruin the structure by going three up top"

This quote reflects a strategic approach to team building in fantasy sports, prioritizing midfielders over forwards. The speaker believes forwards are generally less effective and that strong midfielders will become available. They explain that this belief influenced their decision not to adopt a three-striker formation, aiming to maintain a balanced team structure.

Resources

External Resources

Videos & Documentaries

Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips - Mentioned as the podcast series hosting the discussion.

People

Mo (@TrophyFPL) - Co-host of the podcast, presenting FPL teams and tips.
Pras (@TheFPLWireFantasyPremierLeague) - Co-host of the podcast, discussing FPL strategies and teams.
Chris Richards - Mentioned as a player who was stretched off, indicating an injury.
Isaac - Mentioned as a player who was injured, impacting FPL decisions.
Bruno Fernandes - Mentioned as a key player for Manchester United whose injury impacts FPL strategies.
Hinkapi - Mentioned as a player who was injured.
Anderson - Mentioned in relation to FPL player decisions and performance.
Van Dijk - Mentioned in relation to FPL player decisions and performance.
Saka - Mentioned as a player whose FPL status is being considered.
Foden - Mentioned as a player in the FPL discussion.
Wilson - Mentioned as a player with a yellow flag, impacting FPL decisions.
Silva - Mentioned as a source of information regarding player injuries.
Haaland - Mentioned as a captaincy option in FPL.
Ekitike - Mentioned as a new FPL player pick and a potential replacement for injured players.
Praffkar Minta - Mentioned as a player on the bench in an FPL team.
Rollo Don - Mentioned as a player on the bench in an FPL team.
Mark Guay - Mentioned as a player on the bench in an FPL team.
Timber - Mentioned as a player who was transferred out of an FPL team.
Thiago - Mentioned as a player who was transferred out of an FPL team.
Kieza - Mentioned in relation to Liverpool's attacking options.
Gakpo - Mentioned as a player who might return for Liverpool.
Mount - Mentioned in relation to Manchester United's set-piece takers.
Casemiro - Mentioned as a player returning from suspension for Manchester United.
Martinez - Mentioned in relation to Manchester United's midfield.
Kuni - Mentioned as a potential FPL pick and replacement for Bruno Fernandes.
Raya - Mentioned as an FPL goalkeeper.
Senesi - Mentioned as an FPL defender.
Saka - Mentioned as a player whose FPL status is being considered.
Rice - Mentioned as a potential FPL transfer target.
Gordon - Mentioned as a potential FPL transfer target.
Botman - Mentioned in relation to Newcastle's players.
Trippier - Mentioned in relation to Newcastle's players.
Rodon - Mentioned as a player who could be played in FPL.
Semenyo - Mentioned as an FPL player who scored a goal.
O'Riley - Mentioned as an FPL player who got a clean sheet.
Gabriel - Mentioned as a key Arsenal asset in FPL.
Minter - Mentioned as a player with a difficult fixture.
Ramsdale - Mentioned in a comparison of FPL performance.
JC Johnny Curry - Mentioned as a friend who achieved a high FPL score.
Grealish - Mentioned as a potential FPL option.
Salah - Mentioned as a player who is at AFCON and impacts FPL decisions.
Diaz - Mentioned as a player who is expected to return.
Gakpo - Mentioned as a player who might return for Liverpool.
Sols - Mentioned as a potential FPL transfer target and Liverpool player.
Konate - Mentioned as a Liverpool player who may not have trained.
Gravenberch - Mentioned as a Liverpool player.
Mac Allister - Mentioned as a Liverpool player and potential penalty taker.
Jones - Mentioned as a Liverpool player.
Fimpo - Mentioned as a potential Liverpool player.
Kieza - Mentioned in relation to Liverpool's attacking options.
Newcastle - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
Burnley - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.

Organizations & Institutions

Manchester United - Mentioned in relation to player availability and FPL impact.
Arsenal - Mentioned in relation to defensive performance and FPL asset potential.
Liverpool - Mentioned in relation to player availability and FPL impact.
Newcastle - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
Brentford - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
Bournemouth - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
Spurs - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
Everton - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
Sunderland - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
West Ham - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
Nottingham Forest - Mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
Crystal Palace - Mentioned in relation to a recent game.
Aston Villa - Mentioned in relation to a recent game.
Liberty Mutual - Mentioned in relation to car insurance.
Liberty Mutual Insurance Company - Mentioned as the underwriter for Liberty Mutual.

Websites & Online Resources

FFSCOUT PREMIUM - Mentioned as a link for premium content.
Twitter - Mentioned as a platform for FPL discussions and content.
Bluesky - Mentioned as a platform for FPL content.
TikTok - Mentioned as a platform for FPL content.
Instagram - Mentioned as a platform for FPL content.
Facebook - Mentioned as a platform for FPL content.
WhatsApp - Mentioned as a channel for FPL content.
podcastchoices.com - Mentioned as a link for ad choices.
verbo.com - Mentioned as a website for booking last-minute deals on rentals.
blueapron.com/terms - Mentioned as a website for Blue Apron terms and conditions.
lifelock.com/podcast - Mentioned as a website for Lifelock offers.

Other Resources

FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The primary subject of the discussion, involving team selections and player strategies.
Gameweek 18 - The specific round of fixtures being discussed for FPL.
Boxing Day - Mentioned as a period with upcoming football fixtures.
AFCON - Mentioned as a reason for player unavailability impacting FPL.
Christmas - Mentioned as a holiday period impacting FPL content and schedules.
Gameweek 19 - A future FPL gameweek being considered for strategy.
Gameweek 20 - A future FPL gameweek being considered for strategy.
Gameweek 21 - A future FPL gameweek being considered for strategy.
Premier League - The football league whose matches are the basis for FPL.
London Stadium - Mentioned as a venue for a football match.
Gtech - Mentioned as a venue for a football match.
New Year - Mentioned as a timeframe for future podcast episodes.
Turkey - Mentioned in relation to Christmas traditions.
Boxing Day football - Mentioned as a tradition following Christmas.
Christmas pod - Mentioned as a specific episode type.
Last minute deals - Mentioned in relation to travel bookings.
Subscription - Mentioned as a concept related to meal delivery services.
Identity theft - Mentioned as a risk related to personal information.
US based restoration specialists - Mentioned in relation to identity theft protection services.