NFL Week 18 Reveals Inconsistent Performance and Coaching Accountability

Bottom Line Bombs w/ CJ Sullivan · January 05, 2026 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

The Bengals' inability to avoid defensive touchdowns against the Browns, specifically allowing two in one game, highlights a critical vulnerability that has occurred in all instances of this rare defensive feat this season.
The Eagles' offensive scheme under coordinator Kevin Patoo is a significant detriment, causing nearly every offensive player to perform worse than the previous year, jeopardizing playoff success.
The Raiders' decision to pay $50 million to recently fired coaches demonstrates a potentially inefficient allocation of resources, as significant sums are spent on personnel no longer contributing to team performance.
The announcement that Aaron Glenn remains employed as a coach, despite the Jets' historically poor season, illustrates a common Black Monday phenomenon where teams retain underperforming staff, offering a perverse sense of job security.
The Jaguars' eight-game winning streak, culminating in a 41-7 victory, signifies a team peaking at the right time and demonstrates their capability to dominate opponents, positioning them as a strong playoff contender.
The NFC South's paradoxical outcome, with both the Panthers and Buccaneers winning their games but covering spreads, exemplifies a division where teams achieve wins without necessarily demonstrating superior performance, leading to unusual division winners.
The Bengals' repeated failure to avoid costly defensive scores, such as pick-sixes and fumble recoveries for touchdowns, indicates a systemic issue that undermines their offensive efforts and leads to unexpected losses.

Deep Dive

The NFL's Week 18 slate and subsequent Black Monday coaching firings reveal a league grappling with inconsistent performance, strategic missteps, and the cyclical nature of team management. While some teams celebrated playoff berths and promising futures, others underscored a pervasive lack of offensive execution and strategic clarity, leading to widespread coaching dismissals and questions about organizational direction.

The Bengals' Week 18 performance against the Browns serves as a stark example of a team's inability to capitalize on opportunities, repeatedly sabotaging their own efforts through costly turnovers and missed opportunities. This loss, coupled with a season marked by inconsistency, highlights a critical flaw in their ability to execute under pressure, despite having a talented roster. Similarly, the Eagles' decision to bench starters in Week 18, while intended for rest, exposed deep-seated issues with their offensive scheme and play-calling, raising concerns about their playoff readiness and the effectiveness of their coaching staff. The continued employment of certain coaches, like Zac Taylor, despite questionable performance, points to organizational inertia or misplaced loyalty that can hinder progress.

Black Monday's wave of firings underscores the high stakes and demanding nature of NFL coaching. The Falcons' decision to move on from Raheem Morris, despite a late-season surge, demonstrates a willingness to seek external solutions, acknowledging that momentum in mathematically meaningless games can mask underlying systemic issues. The dismissals of coaches like Stefanski and Gannon reflect a trend of holding leadership accountable for defensive struggles and overall team performance, particularly when significant investments, such as the Deshaun Watson trade, do not yield expected results. The prolonged tenures of some coaches, even those with past accolades, are ultimately weighed against current performance, suggesting that a team's trajectory, rather than past success, dictates future employment. The league's tendency to retain coaches who have secured playoff berths, even with mediocre regular-season records, reveals a cautious approach to change, often prioritizing stability over a complete overhaul.

The playoff picture, solidified by Week 18, presents a mix of established contenders and surprisingly resilient teams. The Jaguars' impressive winning streak positions them as a legitimate threat, while matchups like the Steelers-Ravens game exemplify the grit and unpredictability characteristic of late-season NFL contests. However, the ongoing struggles of teams like the Jets, marked by historic losing margins and a lack of offensive production, highlight the vast disparities in team performance and the urgent need for strategic redirection. The pervasive theme across many teams is the struggle to maintain offensive consistency and execute fundamental game plans, leading to a cycle of underperformance and subsequent coaching changes.

Action Items

Audit coaching staff performance: For 3-5 recently fired coaches, analyze their win-loss records, playoff appearances, and key personnel decisions to identify common failure patterns.
Create a template for post-game analysis: Define 5 required sections (key plays, strategic adjustments, player performance, coaching decisions, outcome impact) to standardize review processes.
Track coaching retention metrics: For teams that retained coaches despite poor performance, identify the stated reasons and compare them against subsequent season outcomes.
Evaluate player development pathways: For 3-5 teams with significant offensive line or skill position regression, analyze coaching and player personnel changes to identify root causes.

Key Quotes

"Until Black Monday, you know, they come out, "Okay, Jonathan Gannon's fired, Pete Carroll fired," all that stuff. Then you have other teams who are like, "Yep, no, he's still here. I just wanted to announce that Aaron Glenn is still the coach." Really? Are you sure? "Yep, no, we, we, we, we went over it, and he's still the coach." Oh, okay. All right, well, thanks for calling us in to tell us that."

C.J. Sullivan highlights the peculiar nature of "Black Monday" firings, noting how some teams announce coaches are not being fired, which he finds amusing. This observation points to the often-performative or anticlimactic aspects of coaching changes in the NFL.

"The Bengals are the most unserious team in the NFL. They're just unserious. Just when you think, "Okay, they're eliminated," or "routing teams," Joe Burrow's having fun. That was my only loss in the Circa Millions. I went four and one to finish up 51, 38, and one. That is 13 and a half games over .500. Of course, that gets you nothing in the Circa Millions because they only pay 1.5% of the entries."

C.J. Sullivan expresses frustration with the Cincinnati Bengals, labeling them "unserious" and a "saboteur" of his betting picks. He details how their inconsistent performance directly impacted his Circa Millions contest results, emphasizing that even a strong record yielded no prize due to the contest's payout structure.

"The Jets are embarrassing. They've lost the last five games by an average of more than 23 points a game. It's the worst in NFL history. So that's good. Aaron Glenn, keep your job. Incredible. But that, I mean, it's just a cease and desist. Dude, I, I, the Jets season leaders, team leaders, Justin Fields leads the team in passing. He hasn't played in two months. Garrett Wilson leads the team in receiving yards. He hasn't played in two months."

C.J. Sullivan criticizes the New York Jets' performance, citing their historic losing streak and the absurdity of their leading statistical categories being held by players who haven't played significant time. He uses this as a sarcastic point to highlight the team's overall dysfunction.

"I have an AFC future on them. We hit the divisional win. We actually banked a Seattle-Jaguar divisional parlay that I gave out at the beginning of the season at 26 to 1. But this team is absolutely rolling. They have the Bills coming up now in the playoffs. Bills are favored, I believe, by one. Jags' kicker is a weapon. John says, "Absolutely." Cam, look, Cam Little drilled a 67-yarder, whatever the hell it was yesterday, and he buried it."

C.J. Sullivan expresses confidence in the Jacksonville Jaguars, noting their current winning streak and successful season-long bets, including a 26-to-1 parlay. He highlights the Jaguars' strong momentum heading into the playoffs and praises their kicker's exceptional range.

"I agree, Raheem Morris might be a great coordinator. Some lucky team will get him as a coordinator. He is a great coordinator. Eric Thurman says, "Uh, but that's also a little bit racist of you to say that, Eric, just to assume he won't get another head coaching job." You know what I mean? Once you push that narrative, why does he have to go automatically get demoted to coordinator? Why can't a black coach fail? Cultural gap. Yeah, it is big gap."

C.J. Sullivan discusses the coaching carousel, acknowledging Raheem Morris's potential as a coordinator. He then engages with a listener's comment about race in coaching, agreeing that Black coaches should have the same opportunity to fail and succeed as head coaches without automatic demotion.

"My point is, they had cancer. They're pretty open about it and knew it. But celebrities, I look, when celebrities die, when they have a, and then they're like, "What? How did they die?" And like, "Oh, they had a secret battle of cancer." "Oh, you had a secret battle." Norm Macdonald, David Bowie. Like they die out of nowhere. Like, "What the fuck? David Bowie died." Like, "Yeah, he's, he's battling a secret battle of cancer for years." "Oh, okay. I guess he didn't want the attention." I mean, I guess. But that's not going to be me. See, I generate still worry. When I get my cancer, it will be a loud battle. Very loud, sympathetic, you know, whiny battle."

C.J. Sullivan contrasts the public perception of celebrity cancer battles with his own hypothetical approach. He finds the "secret battle" narrative surprising and states that if he were to face cancer, he would make it a very public and vocal ordeal, seeking sympathy.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Man in the Box" by Lou Holtz - Mentioned in relation to a podcast segment.

Articles & Papers

"National Geographic camera" - Mentioned in relation to Miles Garrett's father taking pictures.

People

Lou Holtz - Mentioned as a figure still active and listening to a podcast.
CJ Sullivan - Mentioned as a host of the podcast.
Larry David - Mentioned in relation to New Year's greetings.
Zach Taylor - Mentioned as a coach who survived Black Monday.
Joe Burrow - Mentioned as the quarterback for the Bengals.
Mike Brown - Mentioned as the owner of the Bengals.
Todd Bowles - Mentioned as a coach who survived Black Monday.
Baker Mayfield - Mentioned as the quarterback for Tampa Bay.
Lane Kiffin - Mentioned in relation to trading on the prediction market and as a potential NFL coach.
Baron Trump - Mentioned in relation to a hypothetical trading scenario.
Justin Jefferson - Mentioned in relation to JJ McCarthy.
Jamar Chase - Mentioned as a player for the Bengals.
Miles Garrett - Mentioned for breaking the sack record.
T.J. Hockenson - Mentioned in relation to an offensive interference call.
Saquon Barkley - Mentioned as an Eagles offensive player.
A.J. Brown - Mentioned as an Eagles offensive player.
Jalen Hurts - Mentioned as an Eagles offensive player.
DeVonta Smith - Mentioned as an Eagles offensive player.
Tanner McKee - Mentioned as an Eagles offensive player.
Kevin Stefanski - Mentioned as a coach fired from Cleveland.
Deshaun Watson - Mentioned in relation to Kevin Stefanski's tenure.
Jonathan Gannon - Mentioned as a coach fired from Arizona.
Kyler Murray - Mentioned as a quarterback for Arizona.
Pete Carroll - Mentioned as a coach fired from Seattle.
Shane (Joe Schoen) - Mentioned as the General Manager of the Giants.
Mike Tomlin - Mentioned as a coach who might be fired.
John Harbaugh - Mentioned as a coach who might be fired.
Andy Dalton - Mentioned in relation to Saturday afternoon games and as a backup.
Dan Campbell - Mentioned as the coach of the Lions.
Kevin Patoo - Mentioned as the Offensive Coordinator for the Eagles.
Josh Allen - Mentioned as the quarterback for Buffalo.
Aaron Glenn - Mentioned as a coach who is still employed.
Mike McDaniel - Mentioned as the coach of Miami.
Raheem Morris - Mentioned as a coach fired from the Falcons.
Terry Fontenot - Mentioned as a General Manager fired from the Falcons.
Matt Ryan - Mentioned as a figure associated with the Falcons.
Bob Petrino - Mentioned as a former coach who left mid-season.
Vic Beasley - Mentioned in relation to Bob Petrino leaving.
Chris Chandler - Mentioned as a backup quarterback.
Desmond Ridder - Mentioned in relation to the Falcons and practice squad.
Carson Wentz - Mentioned in relation to Minnesota.
Trey Lance - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Broncos.
Keenan Allen - Mentioned in relation to incentives and being targeted by Trey Lance.
Matthew Stafford - Mentioned in relation to the MVP race.
Drake Maye - Mentioned in relation to the MVP race.
Sam Darnold - Mentioned as a quarterback for the 49ers and for his performance.
Kenneth Walker - Mentioned as a player for Seattle.
Bijan Robinson - Mentioned in relation to Seattle's defense.
TJ Miller - Mentioned as a comedian performing with the speaker.
Colby Dant - Mentioned as a co-host of a college football show.
Moneyline Mac - Mentioned as a co-host of a college football show.

Organizations & Institutions

Underdog - Mentioned as a platform for new customers and promo codes.
Sports Gambling Podcast Network (SGPN) - Mentioned as the network for the podcast.
NFL (National Football League) - Primary subject of discussion.
Underdog (App) - Mentioned for new customer offers.
Calshi - Mentioned as a prediction market.
Novig - Mentioned as a sports prediction market.
Rhythm - Mentioned as a prediction game with AI models.
The Improv - Mentioned as a venue for comedy shows.
Texas Tech - Mentioned in relation to a college football future bet.
Oregon - Mentioned in relation to a college football game.
Indiana - Mentioned in relation to the Rose Bowl.
Alabama - Mentioned in relation to the Rose Bowl.
Green Bay Packers - Mentioned in relation to a game against Minnesota.
Detroit Lions - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Bears.
Chicago Bears - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Lions.
Philadelphia Eagles - Mentioned in relation to their offensive coordinator and playoff seeding.
New England Patriots - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Bills.
Buffalo Bills - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Jets and playoffs.
New York Jets - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Bills and their performance.
Denver Broncos - Mentioned in relation to a game against the 49ers and their seeding.
Minnesota Vikings - Mentioned in relation to a game against Green Bay.
San Francisco 49ers - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Rams and playoff seeding.
Los Angeles Rams - Mentioned in relation to a game against the 49ers.
Carolina Panthers - Mentioned in relation to a game against Tampa Bay.
New Orleans Saints - Mentioned in relation to a game against Atlanta.
Atlanta Falcons - Mentioned in relation to their coaching changes and division standing.
Cleveland - Mentioned in relation to Kevin Stefanski's tenure.
Arizona - Mentioned in relation to Jonathan Gannon's tenure.
Seattle Seahawks - Mentioned in relation to Pete Carroll's tenure and playoff seeding.
Las Vegas Raiders - Mentioned in relation to Pete Carroll's tenure and draft position.
New York Giants - Mentioned in relation to their draft position and General Manager.
Indianapolis Colts - Mentioned in relation to their coach and General Manager.
Houston Texans - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Steelers.
Tennessee Titans - Mentioned in relation to coaching changes.
Kansas City Chiefs - Mentioned in relation to their offensive coordinator and a game against the Raiders.
Miami - Mentioned in relation to Mike McDaniel's tenure.
Montana State - Mentioned in relation to a college football game.
Illinois State - Mentioned in relation to a college football game.
College Football Experience - Mentioned as a show.

Websites & Online Resources

YouTube - Mentioned as a platform to join the chat.
X - Mentioned as a platform for live viewing.

Other Resources

Black Monday - Mentioned as a day for coaches being fired.
Circa Millions - Mentioned as a contest that has ended.
Circa Survivor - Mentioned as a contest that has ended.
AFC Future - Mentioned as a bet on the Jaguars.
Divisional Win - Mentioned as a bet on the Jaguars.
MVP Race - Mentioned in relation to Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye.
Coach of the Year - Mentioned as an award.
Double AA Game (FCS) - Mentioned in relation to college football.
New Year's Resolutions - Discussed as a concept.
Dry January - Discussed as a concept.
Alcoholism - Discussed as a disease.
Chemo - Used as an analogy for trying treatments.
Cancer - Discussed in relation to personal anecdotes and celebrity deaths.