College Sports Chaos, Betting Growth, and Private Capital
TL;DR
- Lane Kiffin's departure from Ole Miss to LSU highlights the chaotic nature of college sports, where coaches can switch jobs with payouts, mirroring athlete transfer portal flexibility.
- The NCAA's governance role in college sports is shifting from enforcement to a more managerial function, with power concentrated in the "Power Four" conferences.
- Expansion of the College Football Playoff faces ongoing debate and missed deadlines, with potential impacts on ESPN's broadcast rights renegotiations if expanded beyond 14 teams.
- Prediction markets are not seen as a long-term threat to regulated sports betting platforms like BetMGM, as they are considered illegal sports betting by regulators.
- Kane's real estate strategy focuses on building brands around experiences, exemplified by their involvement with hotels like Aman and Delano, and sports facilities like St. James.
- The Indian Premier League's short-form cricket format has transformed the sport, achieving broadcast rights values second only to the NFL per game.
Deep Dive
The business of sports is increasingly driven by significant capital inflows and evolving professionalization, influencing everything from coaching changes and playoff structures to the explosive growth of sports betting and the strategic acquisition of sports assets. This dynamic environment demands a constant recalibration of strategies for leagues, teams, and investors, as traditional models face disruption from new technologies and shifting consumer behaviors.
The college sports landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, marked by the increasing fluidity of coaching roles and the expansion of playoff formats. Lane Kiffin's departure from Ole Miss to LSU exemplifies the modern coaching carousel, where job changes are normalized and often accompanied by substantial payouts, mirroring player mobility through the transfer portal. This trend is further complicated by ongoing discussions about expanding the College Football Playoff beyond 12 teams, with proposals ranging up to 24 teams, though significant hurdles remain regarding media rights renegotiations and agreement among the major conferences. The NCAA's role is diminishing, with power shifting to the "Power Four" conferences, leading to a more managerial, less disciplinary function for the organization as it navigates a landscape increasingly resembling a free market.
The sports betting industry is experiencing rapid growth but faces challenges from regulatory scrutiny and the emergence of prediction markets. BetMGM highlights the industry's focus on responsible gambling and sports integrity, emphasizing the benefits of legal, regulated markets in detecting suspicious activity and protecting players. While scandals involving player prop bets are concerning, regulated sportsbooks like BetMGM assert that their offerings, which include a wider range of betting options and enhanced customer value, are not meaningfully threatened by prediction markets, which they largely view as illegal sports betting. BetMGM's expansion into new markets like Missouri underscores its commitment to regulated operations, while competitors exploring a dual approach of regulated sportsbooks and prediction markets are being closely monitored. The growth of betting on women's sports is seen as symbiotic, where increased availability for bettors can help drive interest and popularity, mirroring the broader trend of expanding sports entertainment options beyond traditional game days.
Private capital is increasingly targeting sports as a lucrative alternative asset class, with firms like Cain investing billions in diverse sports-related ventures. Cain's portfolio includes stakes in major entities like Chelsea FC, the Dodgers, and the Lakers, alongside significant real estate developments such as the St. James sports facility near Washington D.C. This strategy extends beyond direct sports ownership to experiential businesses like Swingers, which leverage similar principles of engagement and entertainment. The firm's approach to real estate development, exemplified by projects like the Delano hotel rebranding, emphasizes understanding and delivering customer experiences, a philosophy that also informs their interest in sports assets. The potential for multipurpose venues, capable of hosting both athletic events and entertainment, is a key focus, reflecting a broader industry trend of maximizing revenue streams 365 days a year. The emergence of short-form cricket, like "The Hundred," presents a compelling case for sports growth, demonstrating how innovative formats can capture new audiences and significantly increase broadcast rights value, rivaling established leagues.
Action Items
- Audit college sports calendar: Identify 3-5 specific calendar conflicts (e.g., academic vs. playoff) and propose mitigation strategies.
- Analyze NCAA governance shift: Document 3-5 key changes in the NCAA's role from enforcer to manager and their impact on power dynamics.
- Track prediction market legality: Monitor 2-3 states for regulatory rulings on prediction markets and their classification as gambling.
- Evaluate women's sports betting platform: Assess 3-5 emerging women's sports for betting market potential and user demand.
Key Quotes
"none of what lane kiffin has done over the course of his career has surprised me he's an agent of chaos in the chaotic world of college sports and i think everybody wants to like chastise him for these different things but when athletes can up and leave and enter the transfer portal and be paid and coaches have long been able to switch jobs or or be fired with payouts i think this is just the world we live in and everybody needs to get over it more"
Ben Portnoy, a college sports reporter, argues that Lane Kiffin's controversial coaching moves are not surprising given the current landscape of college athletics. Portnoy highlights that the ability for athletes to transfer and coaches to move between jobs with financial compensation has created a dynamic where such actions are now commonplace, and individuals should accept this reality.
"i think that you have a college sports calendar that operates on the university system right so like college sports leaders might be taking off about how the calendar operates but short of going and changing the semester program you know programs at every school in america like good luck fixing that because that's just how this works right these are tethered to institutions of higher education"
Ben Portnoy explains that the structure of the college sports calendar is intrinsically linked to the university system. Portnoy suggests that attempts to alter this calendar are unlikely to succeed without fundamental changes to the semester programs at American educational institutions, as these calendars are deeply integrated with academic schedules.
"the college football playoff is going to continue to be a conversation and there's been a conversation about whether to expand this thing beyond 12 teams or go to 16 or you know big ten commissioner tony petitti has pushed the idea of as many as 24 teams that conversation remains ongoing"
Ben Portnoy discusses the ongoing debate surrounding the expansion of the College Football Playoff. Portnoy notes that discussions are continuing about increasing the number of participating teams beyond the current 12, with proposals ranging up to 16 or even 24 teams, as advocated by Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti.
"i think right now the way that college sports is set up i think the power four conferences ultimately have sort of the absolute power quote unquote over the ecosystem and what shape it's going to take generally speaking and most of that's driven through football"
Ben Portnoy asserts that the Power Four conferences currently hold significant influence over the direction of college sports. Portnoy indicates that this dominance is largely propelled by the financial and cultural impact of football within these conferences.
"the nfl is a bulletproof business"
This statement suggests that the National Football League is exceptionally resilient to economic downturns or external challenges. The NFL's business model and fan engagement appear to make it highly stable and consistently profitable.
"we see the legal regulated sports betting framework as the best for bringing the product to sports bettors in a state we don't see prediction markets as a meaningful long term threat to our business to bet mgm for a few reasons for that look the majority of our revenue comes from igaming"
Adam Greenblatt, CEO of BetMGM, expresses confidence in the regulated sports betting market as the optimal approach for states. Greenblatt states that BetMGM does not view prediction markets as a significant long-term threat, noting that the majority of their revenue is derived from iGaming.
"our analysis which is shared by you know mid 30s attorneys general and consistently by our regulators is that the prediction markets and sports sports prediction contracts are frankly illegal sports betting"
Adam Greenblatt outlines BetMGM's position on prediction markets, stating that their analysis, supported by numerous attorneys general and regulators, concludes these markets constitute illegal sports betting. Greenblatt anticipates that legal rulings will continue to affirm this stance, potentially narrowing the scope of prediction markets.
"i think that when you look at the the facilities that they're around the world that are being built they have to be multipurpose they have to be multifaceted because it's great to have the anchor if you're an nfl stadium or an nfl you know team but if you look at sofi and the way that sofi is innovated so many times a year and you know jason gannon who helped develop that you know for stan kroenke is now the president of chelsea and he's a great guy and helping build the vision for next vision of stamford bridge and chelsea but i think it's really important to understand that we're in the entertainment business and we're not just in the entertainment business when the teams play but we're obviously in the entertainment business you know 365 days a year"
Jonathan Goldstein emphasizes that modern sports facilities must be designed for multiple uses to maximize their entertainment value year-round. Goldstein points to SoFi Stadium as an example of successful innovation in this area and highlights that the business extends beyond game days, operating as a 365-day entertainment enterprise.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Raiders" - Mentioned in relation to Lane Kiffin's past career.
Articles & Papers
- "Sports Business Journal" - Mentioned as a source for college sports coverage and as a partner with Bloomberg through a new subscription bundle.
People
- Lane Kiffin - Discussed as a coach who made a controversial move from Ole Miss to LSU.
- Jared Curtis - Mentioned as a five-star quarterback who flipped from Georgia to Vandy.
- Greg Sankey - Mentioned as SEC commissioner involved in college football playoff discussions.
- Tony Petitti - Mentioned as Big Ten commissioner pushing for playoff expansion.
- Nick Saban - Mentioned as having spoken about the college football calendar.
- Kirk Herbstreit - Mentioned as having spoken about Lane Kiffin coaching through the playoff.
- Emmanuel Clase - Mentioned in relation to recent scandals in baseball.
- Luis Ortiz - Mentioned in relation to recent scandals in baseball.
- Jason Gannon - Mentioned as having helped develop SoFi stadium and now president of Chelsea.
- Todd Boehly - Mentioned as a global leader in sports, involved with the Dodgers, Lakers, and Chelsea.
- Vlad Doronin - Mentioned as chairman and controlling shareholder of Aman.
- Kendrick Castron - Mentioned as co-running the St. James facility.
- Craig Dickson - Mentioned as co-running the St. James facility.
Organizations & Institutions
- Ole Miss - Mentioned as the college football team Lane Kiffin departed.
- LSU - Mentioned as the college football team Lane Kiffin joined.
- Georgia - Mentioned as the college Jared Curtis flipped from.
- Vandy Commodores - Mentioned as the college Jared Curtis flipped to.
- Big Ten - Mentioned as a conference with a preference for a specific college football playoff format.
- ACC - Mentioned as a conference involved in college football playoff discussions.
- Big 12 - Mentioned as a conference involved in college football playoff discussions.
- NCAA - Discussed in its evolving role in college sports governance, particularly regarding rule enforcement and championships.
- Michigan - Mentioned as having received penalties from the NCAA over a sign-stealing scandal.
- BetMGM - Discussed as a sports betting platform expanding into Missouri and its stance on prediction markets.
- Cain Co - Mentioned as a firm with stakes in the sports world.
- Chelsea FC - Mentioned as a football club where Jonathan Goldstein is a director and Kane has invested.
- Dodgers - Mentioned as a sports team where Todd Boehly has interests.
- Lakers - Mentioned as a sports team where Todd Boehly has interests.
- Swingers - Mentioned as a business focused on experiential enjoyment.
- St. James - Mentioned as a large sports facility outside of Washington D.C.
- Aman - Mentioned as a brand Kane invested in.
- Delano - Mentioned as a hotel brand Kane is rebranding a property to.
- Raffles - Mentioned as a hotel brand in Boston.
- Indian Premier League (IPL) - Mentioned as a highly valued cricket competition.
- English Cricket Board - Mentioned as having started "The Hundred" competition.
- Trent Rockets - Mentioned in relation to "The Hundred" competition.
- Mastercard - Mentioned for its commercial acceptance solutions for B2B payments.
- Hills Pet Nutrition - Mentioned for its science-led nutrition for pets.
Websites & Online Resources
- omnystudio.com/listener - Mentioned for privacy information.
- chase.com/business - Mentioned for business finance tools.
- cmk.co/stories - Mentioned for learning how CVS Caremark helps members save on medication.
- verizon.com/business - Mentioned for Verizon business mobile plans.
- public.com/market - Mentioned for an investing platform and high yield cash account.
- mastercard.com/commercialacceptance - Mentioned for B2B payment solutions.
- mintmobile.com - Mentioned for unlimited wireless plans.
- tomtom.com/government - Mentioned for live traffic and mapping solutions for public sector teams.
- hillspet.com - Mentioned for finding the right pet food.
Podcasts & Audio
- Bloomberg Business of Sports - The podcast where this discussion is taking place.
- Bloomberg Radio - The broadcast source for the podcast.
Other Resources
- Transfer Portal - Discussed as a factor in college sports coaching decisions.
- Prediction Markets - Discussed as a growing area in sports, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and their potential challenge to traditional gaming platforms.
- Player Props - Discussed in the context of sports betting and potential restrictions.
- Sports Betting - Discussed in relation to scandals, regulation, and the legal market.
- I-Gaming - Mentioned as the primary revenue source for BetMGM.
- College Football Playoff - Discussed in terms of potential expansion and format changes.
- The Hundred - Described as a short-form cricket competition with 100 deliveries per side.
- Indian Premier League (IPL) - Described as a short-form cricket competition with 120 deliveries.
- B2B Card Payment Landscape - Discussed as an evolving area with increasing buyer demand for virtual card payments.
- Live Traffic and Mapping Solutions - Mentioned as tools provided by TomTom for public sector teams.
- Science-Led Nutrition - Mentioned as a product offering from Hills Pet Nutrition.