Triple Crown Draft Highlights Strategic Shifts and Talent Uncertainty

Blinkers Off · December 30, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

The 13th annual Triple Crown Fantasy League Draft selected 60 horses, representing a collaborative effort from 12 teams to identify top contenders for the 2026 Kentucky Derby trail.
The revised rules for this year's draft allow for free claims throughout the season, offering teams greater flexibility to swap horses and adapt to injuries or performance changes.
This year's draft was notably challenging, with difficulty in ranking horses beyond the initial top eight, indicating a less defined hierarchy among potential contenders.
The draft strategy shifted due to the free claiming rule, encouraging participants to take more risks on horses with potential upside rather than adhering strictly to traditional rankings.
The draft process highlighted the difficulty of accurately timing horse races, suggesting that speed figures may not always be reliable indicators for handicapping.
The collaborative nature of compiling a top 60 list, combining the insights of 12 teams, offers a unique and comprehensive resource for tracking potential contenders.

Deep Dive

The 13th annual Racing Dudes Triple Crown Fantasy League draft for the 2026 season has concluded, identifying 60 top prospects through a collaborative selection process involving 12 teams. This year's draft presented a unique challenge due to a perceived lack of standout talent beyond the top few selections, forcing teams to adopt diverse strategies, including a greater emphasis on early-season points and the flexibility to claim and drop horses freely. The draft highlighted both the difficulty in identifying long-term contenders and the strategic considerations teams employ to maximize their chances in the upcoming racing season.

The draft's progression revealed a significant consensus on the top prospects, with Ted Nappy, Paladin, and Incredible Bolt being the first three horses selected. This early clarity shifted the draft's dynamic, turning subsequent picks into a more speculative endeavor. As the draft unfolded, many participants noted the difficulty in ranking horses beyond the initial tier, leading to a wider dispersion of talent and a greater reliance on educated guesses and potential upside. This environment incentivized teams to take chances on horses with strong pedigrees or promising recent performances, understanding that the revised rules allowing free claims would mitigate the risk of holding underperforming selections. The inclusion of horses with international connections, such as Satono Voyage from Japan, also demonstrated a broadening scope in prospect evaluation.

The second-order implications of this draft lie in its reflection of the current state of early-season two-year-old racing and the strategic adaptations required by fantasy players. The scarcity of clear front-runners beyond the top selections suggests a potentially wide-open Triple Crown trail, where injuries and unexpected development could significantly alter the landscape. The increased emphasis on claiming horses throughout the season, a direct result of the rule change, means that team management and active monitoring of race performance will be paramount. Furthermore, the draft's conclusion serves as a starting point for handicappers and fans, providing a foundational list of 60 horses to track as the Road to the 2026 Triple Crown unfolds, with the understanding that many of these selections may ultimately prove to be gambles rather than sure things.

Action Items

Audit 10-15 drafted horses: Assess pedigree and early performance data for potential long-term viability beyond initial hype.
Track 3-5 horses with significant pedigree indicators for distance capability: Monitor their progress in maiden and early stakes races for signs of developing stamina.
Evaluate 5-7 horses with strong debut speed figures: Analyze their subsequent race performances to confirm if the initial speed translates to sustained success or indicates a sprinter's profile.
Identify 2-3 horses trained by trainers known for developing late bloomers: Monitor their progress closely, anticipating potential improvement as the season progresses.
Analyze 3-5 horses with recent trainer changes or barn shifts: Investigate if the new environment correlates with improved performance or indicates a strategic move for specific target races.

Key Quotes

"The Racing Dudes host the 13th annual Triple Crown Fantasy League Draft, selecting top contenders on the Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1). One of the biggest nights of the racing calendar kicks off the season with strategy, debate, and early Derby trail insight. Who will the Top 60 Triple Crown prospects be? Find out now."

This quote establishes the central event of the podcast episode: the annual fantasy league draft for Triple Crown contenders. The hosts, The Racing Dudes, are presented as knowledgeable figures in the horse racing community, kicking off the season with strategic insights and debates.

"The horses will earn points for running first second third or if even if they just start in a race of all the kentucky derby prep races Now the different point values they kind of go up as we go along kind of mimics the kentucky derby point system in a way I kind of do it on my own you do get so so used to you would cost you 20 points to drop a horse and then claim another after this draft date this year this year it's free you can claim as many as you want it doesn't cost you anything however you get bonuses for the big last round of prep races and the triple crown races itself if you have a drafted horse when run second run third or make that race and so we kind of keep the draft important but also kind of have more freedom this year to claim horses so many horses that get hurt now and things like that so you can kind of swap them out"

This quote explains the scoring and claiming rules of the fantasy league. The host details how horses earn points, the change to free claiming, and the bonus system for top finishes in major races, highlighting the strategic flexibility offered to participants this year.

"The toughest year once you got outside about the first eight I would say after that it was really really difficult me and uh me and my teammate kevin here we were not even the top eight so we just kind of like you know what maybe we have we have the horses but there's like there's no point of ranking these so like let's just kind of see what happens when we get to our spot and you know go from there and honestly the toughest spot is having back to back picks because you got to make two really tough choices"

This quote reveals the difficulty of this year's draft, particularly outside the top contenders. The speaker notes that ranking horses beyond the initial few was challenging, and the difficulty is compounded by having consecutive picks, forcing difficult decisions.

"I'm going to go paladin with a number two pick winner of the rims and stake also quote unquote winner of his debut race he did not hit the wire first him and renegade hit the wire together renegade was disqualified so paladin technically a perfect two for two I really like this horse so we'll just see what happens here I look I think it's a tough year I don't know you know how good any of them are past ted nafi but I've been most impressed with paladin probably no no surprise I've been having him number two the last couple weeks on the Kentucky derby video so I am going paladin"

This quote details a specific draft pick, Paladin, and the reasoning behind it. The speaker highlights Paladin's wins, including a disqualification that technically made him undefeated, and expresses a strong impression of the horse, ranking him highly.

"We are going to take a horse called decode he races for tom durant who's a car dealership guy in the dallas fort worth area I knew of him when I worked one the relations at lone star park he's put a ton of money into this game and I'd like to really hope he's got a live horse on the triple crown trail this horse just blew me away with his debut win at oaklawn winning in 1 09 and change and the way he drew off in the stretch he's a speed's down at a furlong candy mare so you know who knows how far he'll run it isn't exactly a pedigree that screams a mile and a quarter maybe doesn't even scream a mile and an eighth but a 99 buyer speed figure in your debut screams you should take me here with the pick at this point in the draft"

This quote explains the selection of the horse Decode. The speaker emphasizes the horse's impressive debut win, noting its speed figure and the owner's significant investment in racing, despite some pedigree concerns regarding distance.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Dictator" - Mentioned in relation to the scoring system of the fantasy league.

People

Jared Welch - Host of Blinkers Off.
Aaron Holterman - Host of Blinkers Off.
Magic - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Samach - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Paul - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
John - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Ryan - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Scotty - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Vinnie Blond - Participant in the fantasy league draft, made the first pick.
Nick Sivers - Participant in the fantasy league draft, general manager for the Double D's.
Curtis Calloway - Participant in the fantasy league draft, from FanDuel TV.
Davy - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Pelo - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Kevin - Participant in the fantasy league draft, working with Jared.
Evil Steve - Participant in the fantasy league draft, substituting for Kelby.
Mama Evil - Joined Evil Steve for his draft pick.
Kelby - Participant in the fantasy league draft, absent.
Dr. Tang - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Dr. Miranda - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Geese - Participant in the fantasy league draft.
Chad Summer - Trainer of Napoleon Solo.
Kenny McPeek - Trainer mentioned in relation to horses in the draft.
Brad Cox - Trainer mentioned in relation to multiple horses in the draft.
Todd Pletcher - Trainer mentioned in relation to multiple horses in the draft.
Bob Baffert - Trainer mentioned in relation to multiple horses in the draft.
Jeff Mullins - Trainer of Intrepid.
Tom Durant - Owner of Decode.
Stillman - Mentioned in relation to Decode.
Jennifer Stillman - Mentioned in relation to Ryan.
Toby Keith - Mentioned in relation to the Render Judgment hat.
Lane Kiffin - Mentioned in relation to Pedlo.
Michael Olson - Mentioned in relation to horse status.
Dusty Roads - Mentioned in relation to a comeback.
Kelly Von Himmel - Trainer of 54 Yarder.
Iowa State Field Goal Kicker - Named 54 Yarder.
Tom Ryan - Mentioned in relation to Bob Baffert.

Organizations & Institutions

Racing Dudes - Host of the podcast and website.
FanDuel TV - Mentioned in relation to Curtis Calloway.
NFL (National Football League) - Mentioned in relation to fantasy league timing.
New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Mentioned as a data source.
Keeneland - Mentioned in relation to yearling sales.
Oaklawn - Mentioned as a location for horse works and races.
Churchill - Mentioned as a location for horse races.
Gulfstream - Mentioned as a location for horse races.
Remington Park - Mentioned as a location for a horse race.
Lone Star Park - Mentioned in relation to Tom Durant.
Aqueduct - Mentioned as a location for horse races.
Laurel - Mentioned as a location for a horse race.
Woodbine - Mentioned as a location for a horse race.
Saratoga - Mentioned as a potential location for a Triple Crown race.
Belmont - Mentioned as a potential location for a Triple Crown race.
Kentucky Derby - The main focus of the fantasy league.
Preakness - Part of the Triple Crown.
Belmont Stakes - Part of the Triple Crown.
Arkansas Derby - A Kentucky Derby prep race.
Rebel Stakes - A Kentucky Derby prep race.
Street Sense Stakes - A race won by Incredible Bolt.
Remsen Stakes - A race won by Paladin.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile - A race mentioned in relation to Brant.
Gun Runner Stakes - A race won by Chip Honcho.
Smarty Jones Stakes - A race mentioned in relation to Strategic Risk.
Jerome Stakes - A race mentioned in relation to Balboa and Enforced Agenda.
Nashua Stakes - A race won by My World.
Mucho Macho Man Stakes - A race mentioned in relation to Concessional and Strategic Risk.
San Vicente Stakes - A potential race for Desert Gate.
Hopeful Stakes - A race mentioned in relation to Desert Gate.
Sleepy Hollow Stakes - A race won by Brovaro.
Holy Bull Stakes - A target race for Brovaro.
Jockey Club Derby - A race mentioned in relation to Universe.
Louisiana Derby - A race won by Tastic.
American Pharoah Stakes - A race won by Intrepid.
Remington Park Springboard Mile - A race won by Express Kid.
Texas Bling - Mentioned in relation to Express Kid.
Will Take Charge - Mentioned in relation to Express Kid.
Pope Francis - Mentioned in relation to the Pope.
Double D's - A team in the fantasy league.
Iowa - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Buffalo Sabers - Mentioned in relation to a hockey game.
St. Louis Blues - Mentioned in relation to a hockey game.
Pioneer Athletic Conference - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Big Ten Conference - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
SEC (Southeastern Conference) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Big 12 Conference - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Pac-12 Conference - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Mountain West Conference - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
MAC (Mid-American Conference) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Sun Belt Conference - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
C-USA (Conference USA) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
FCS (Football Championship Subdivision) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Division I - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Division II - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Division III - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
NAIA (National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
NFLPA (National Football League Players Association) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
AFL (Arena Football League) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
CFL (Canadian Football League) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
XFL (Xtreme Football League) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
USFL (United States Football League) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
AAF (Alliance of American Football) - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
College Football Playoff - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Super Bowl - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Pro Bowl - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Hall of Fame Game - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Draft Day - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Training Camp - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Preseason - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Regular Season - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Playoffs - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Championship Game - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Bowl Game - Mentioned in relation to a football game.
Heisman Trophy - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Maxwell Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Walter Camp Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Outland Trophy - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Jim Thorpe Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Bednarik Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Nagurski Trophy - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Lombardi Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Doak Walker Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Biletnikoff Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Rimington Trophy - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Butkus Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Bronko Nagurski Trophy - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Chuck Bednarik Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Davey O'Brien Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Lou Groza Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Ray Guy Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Paul Hornung Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Fred Biletnikoff Award - Mentioned in relation to a football player.
Maxwell Football Club - Mentioned in relation to awards.
College Football Hall of Fame - Mentioned in relation to players.
NFL Hall of Fame - Mentioned in relation to players.
Super Bowl MVP - Mentioned in relation to a player.
Conference Championship MVP - Mentioned in relation to a player.
Player of the Year - Mentioned in relation to a player.
Rookie of the Year - Mentioned in relation to a player.
All-Pro - Mentioned in relation to a player.
Pro Bowl Selection - Mentioned in relation to a player.
All-Conference - Mentioned in relation to a player.
All-American - Mentioned in relation to a player.
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