MLS Playoff Success Hinges on Franchise Competitiveness and Strategic Management - Episode Hero Image

MLS Playoff Success Hinges on Franchise Competitiveness and Strategic Management

American Soccer Analysis · · Listen to Original Episode →
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TL;DR

  • The MLS Cup final's record 4.6 million viewers, excluding Apple TV, highlights the league's growing appeal, amplified by star power like Messi, indicating a strong trajectory for viewership growth.
  • Vancouver's dominant performance against Miami, despite the loss, showcased their ability to effectively counter press and create chances, demonstrating a high level of tactical execution.
  • The Chicago Fire's offensive-minded approach, leading to a significant improvement in goal difference, suggests a potential for success if they can address their defensive midfield weaknesses.
  • The prediction that no MLS team will finish with an expected goal difference worse than -17 indicates a league-wide improvement in competitiveness, with fewer truly terrible teams.
  • San Diego's strategic acquisition of Lewis Morgan for minimal cost demonstrates a clever use of GAM and draft picks, positioning them to break the trend of new expansion teams struggling.
  • The New York Red Bulls' significant roster overhaul and coaching change under Michael Bradley signals a potential short-term dip in performance due to the magnitude of changes.
  • The San Jose Earthquakes' potential struggles are highlighted by the loss of key offensive contributors and a lack of clear vision, raising concerns about their future competitiveness.

Deep Dive

The MLS Cup final, despite a somewhat subdued performance by the victors, showcased the league's growing appeal, drawing record viewership and highlighting the effectiveness of its playoff-centric structure. However, a deeper analysis reveals that the league's future success hinges on addressing systemic issues, particularly the concerning performance of several key franchises and the overall improvement of the bottom tier of teams.

The MLS Cup final itself, while not a "champagne" match, proved entertaining and set a record with 4.6 million viewers, excluding Apple TV numbers. This viewership success, even without the expected Messi-led dominance, underscores the league's increasing draw. The match's narrative, marked by an early own goal and a decisive giveaway exploited by Lionel Messi, demonstrated how individual moments can still dictate outcomes in high-stakes finals. The persistent high hit rate of compelling MLS Cup finals suggests a successful format for generating consistent excitement, even if the overall quality of soccer can vary.

Looking beyond the final, the league faces significant challenges and opportunities. A positive outlook suggests that the league may see a general improvement in the quality of its worst teams, with no truly "terrible" teams expected in the upcoming season. This optimism is fueled by proactive steps taken by historically struggling franchises like Sporting Kansas City and Toronto FC to address their weaknesses. Sporting KC, for instance, has undergone significant front office changes, aiming to modernize operations after a dismal performance. Toronto FC, despite a rough start, has shown signs of improvement. This suggests a potential narrowing of the gap between the league's best and worst, leading to a more competitive landscape.

Conversely, significant concerns remain for several franchises. The Chicago Fire, despite structural changes and a focus on offense, still grapple with a weak defensive midfield, a critical area that requires significant improvement. The potential sale of key player Brian Gutiérrez to Chivas, while bringing in funds, leaves a void that may be difficult to fill comprehensively. The New York Red Bulls present a particularly complex case. Their aggressive overhaul, including new coaching and front office leadership, coupled with the departure of solid, cost-controlled players like Peter Stroud, raises questions about their short-term competitiveness. While the long-term vision under Michael Bradley is promising, the rapid pace of change and potential for significant roster disruption creates a risk of immediate struggles. Similarly, the San Jose Earthquakes face organizational and strategic challenges. A perceived lack of clear vision, coupled with the mismanagement of player contracts and the potential loss of key attacking talent, positions them as a team struggling to build coherence and capitalize on their existing assets. The Los Angeles Galaxy, despite the return of Riqui Puig and a perceived improvement in defense, also face questions regarding their midfield depth and the reliance on aging key players, raising doubts about their immediate title contention.

The broader implication for MLS is that while the league's popularity and the excitement of its playoff format continue to grow, sustained success will require a more equitable distribution of talent and a more consistent organizational approach across all franchises. The current trajectory suggests a league where the gap between the top and bottom may be shrinking, but the path to consistent competitiveness for many teams remains fraught with strategic challenges and the risk of missteps.

Action Items

  • Audit Chicago Fire's defensive midfield: Analyze per-90-minute goals added for all players in that position to identify necessary roster surgery.
  • Track 3-5 key player acquisition methods for San Diego: Evaluate their use of GAM loans and draft picks to assess roster construction strategy.
  • Measure New York Red Bulls' roster overhaul impact: Quantify the correlation between player departures (e.g., Peter Stroud) and team performance metrics.
  • Analyze San Jose Earthquakes' player retention strategy: Calculate the percentage of XG+XA from departing players (Arango, Espinoza, Martinez) to project future production gaps.
  • Evaluate LA Galaxy's midfield composition: Compare current rostered midfielders' statistical output to previous seasons' key contributors (e.g., Mark Delgado) to assess depth.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"4 6 million viewers not including the apple numbers i believe which is the highest viewed mls cup final in history not super shocking when it's like messi winning a title but uh somebody tweeted during the game and we were talking about this pre pod that is there a final that hits as consistently as mls cup because every single mls cup i thought this game was a banger but every single game in mls cup in general the hit rate is very very high"

The hosts note that the recent MLS Cup final achieved record viewership, a significant number even without including Apple TV's figures. They then question whether MLS Cup consistently delivers exciting finals, suggesting that the hit rate for compelling matches in this championship game is remarkably high.

"yeah it was entertaining i was hoping for more of a back and forth more more of the champagne of the soccer but i feel like by the end of the season the champagne's always a little flat everyone sort of got like it's just sort of the nature of the beast when you're out of final at the end of such a long season"

Benjamin expresses that while the final was entertaining, he had hoped for a more dynamic, back-and-forth contest, likening it to "champagne soccer." He attributes the perceived flatness to the nature of the end of a long season, suggesting that players and the overall excitement can be somewhat diminished by that point.

"it is really really befuddling to see andres cubas just completely fall apart the way he did across 15 minutes uh gave up a goal got a yellow card just continually put vancouver at disadvantage and then got subbed off the arguably the best player on the field got got himself subbed off because of how bad he was"

Harrison highlights the perplexing performance of Andres Cubas during a critical 15-minute period. He details how Cubas's actions, including conceding a goal and receiving a yellow card, put his team at a disadvantage, leading to his substitution despite being considered one of the best players on the field.

"i think it's okay as fans to kind of want to buck that from the perspective of that's just human nature i think we kind of roar against i mean that's why everybody hates the yankees and hates the dodgers right now the perfect villains like you you want a villain that's so committed to winning that you know like i like i think and i think that's why like at miami actually really like messi walked the walk in terms of the effort he gave when he got here and the effort he demanded of his friends if they wanted to come with him"

The speaker acknowledges that it's natural for fans to root against dominant teams, comparing it to the animosity towards the Yankees and Dodgers. They suggest that fans gravitate towards a "villain" that is intensely focused on winning, and in Miami's case, they feel Lionel Messi exemplified this by demonstrating significant effort and demanding the same from his teammates.

"i think that there are a number of really fun 2026 things that have already happened we have a lot of big moves jacob glesnes has been traded to the galaxy lewis morgan traded to san diego who i think is going to be a great fit for them dante sealy to the rapids for like an impossibly large amount of gam like i just i was the blinking gif when i saw that"

The host points out that significant moves are already shaping the landscape for the 2026 season. They specifically mention Jacob Glesnes's trade to the Galaxy, Lewis Morgan's move to San Diego, and Dante Sealy's transfer to the Rapids for a substantial amount of GAM (General Allocation Money), expressing surprise at the latter's valuation.

"my positive story as i tell you how bad all these teams are is that i think there will be no truly terrible team in mls next year i think a lot of the teams that were bad or had bad years last year have already taken steps to address the things that made them very bad and i think are setting themselves up for not being great like i don't think sporting kansas city are going to make the playoffs for example but i don't think they're going to be a minus 30 expected goal difference team"

Harrison presents a positive outlook for the upcoming MLS season, predicting that there will not be any truly terrible teams. He believes that teams which struggled last year have already made improvements to address their weaknesses, suggesting that while some may not make the playoffs, they will avoid being historically bad in terms of expected goal difference.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Champagne of Soccer" by [Author Not Specified] - Mentioned in relation to the MLS Cup final's entertainment value.

Articles & Papers

  • Paul Harvey's draft board (Source Not Specified) - Discussed as the single best and most unique resource for MLS draft coverage, providing insightful predictions.

People

  • Lionel Messi - Mentioned as a key player in the MLS Cup final and for his impact on the league.
  • Ali Ahmed - Mentioned as a standout player in the MLS Cup final, with a significant performance stretch.
  • Andres Cubas - Mentioned for a significant performance drop in the MLS Cup final, leading to a yellow card and substitution.
  • Walker Zimmerman - Mentioned as a recent acquisition for a team, impacting defensive strategy.
  • Greg Berhalter - Mentioned in relation to his expected approach to structural defensive play for a team.
  • Bomba - Mentioned as a player whose departure might be a concern for a team.
  • Kipers - Mentioned as a player whose departure might be a concern for a team.
  • O'Regal - Mentioned as part of a young core of players for a team.
  • Gutierrez - Mentioned as a player whose sale to Chivas was a significant event for a team.
  • Sam Rogers - Mentioned as part of a young core of players for a team.
  • Omari Glasgow - Mentioned for having good numbers in certain situations.
  • Peter Vermes - Mentioned as having departed from Sporting Kansas City.
  • David Lee - Mentioned as having taken over operations at Sporting Kansas City.
  • Taty Castellanos - Mentioned as a player filling the shoes of another player for DC United.
  • Ben Tekke - Mentioned as a player whose shoes Taty Castellanos is filling for DC United.
  • Bill Hamid - Mentioned as a former goalkeeper for DC United, with a history of strong performance.
  • Alex Bono - Mentioned as a goalkeeper for DC United who performed well in the past.
  • Tyler Miller - Mentioned as a goalkeeper for DC United who performed poorly in the past.
  • Joe Cole - Mentioned for his time playing for the Tampa Bay Rowdies.
  • C.J. de Santos - Mentioned as having sustained a head injury.
  • Chuy Lozano - Mentioned in relation to a side story and potential DP swap for San Diego.
  • Mikey Vares - Mentioned for his work in creating a roster for San Diego.
  • Tyler Heaps - Mentioned for his work in creating a roster for San Diego and for an acquisition.
  • Wilfred Nancy - Mentioned for his recent coaching performance at Celtic and his past with Montreal and Columbus.
  • Jürgen Klopp - Mentioned for visiting the Red Bull training center and potentially influencing strategy.
  • Julian De Guzman - Mentioned as a new hire for the New York Red Bulls.
  • Michael Bradley - Mentioned as a new hire for the New York Red Bulls and for his coaching potential.
  • Emil Forsberg - Mentioned as a player whose departure from the New York Red Bulls is anticipated.
  • Sam Goldberg - Mentioned as a source of information regarding Emil Forsberg's status.
  • Christian Espinoza - Mentioned as a player who was not re-signed by San Jose, with a rumor of a move to LAFC.
  • Chicho Arango - Mentioned as a player who may be moving to Pumas, with a previous signing for Chivas.
  • Joseph Martinez - Mentioned as having signed for Chivas.
  • Preston Judd - Mentioned as a potential starting striker for San Jose and for his scoring ability.
  • Danny Musovski - Mentioned as a recent graduate and fringe player.
  • Paddy Mullins - Mentioned as a comparable player to Preston Judd.
  • Chris Wondolowski - Mentioned as a comparable player to Preston Judd.
  • Ricky Puig - Mentioned as a returning player for the LA Galaxy, expected to improve the team.
  • Miguel Barry - Mentioned as a player who played significant minutes for the LA Galaxy.
  • Elijah Wynder - Mentioned as a young player who struggled for the LA Galaxy.
  • Yoshida - Mentioned as a solid defensive player for the LA Galaxy.
  • Garce - Mentioned in relation to a defensive pairing with Yoshida for the LA Galaxy.
  • Marco Reus - Mentioned for having a good season for the LA Galaxy, despite limited playing time.
  • Mark Delgado - Mentioned as a significant absence from the LA Galaxy's midfield.
  • Mathias Jorgensen - Mentioned as a highly compensated player for the LA Galaxy.
  • Julian Aude - Mentioned as a highly compensated player for the LA Galaxy.
  • Lucas Sanabria - Mentioned as a highly compensated player for the LA Galaxy.
  • Mikovich - Mentioned as a goalkeeper for the LA Galaxy.
  • Vanni - Mentioned as a coach for the LA Galaxy.

Organizations & Institutions

  • MLS (Major League Soccer) - Mentioned as the league where the MLS Cup final took place and for its operational structure.
  • Apple - Mentioned in relation to viewership numbers for the MLS Cup final.
  • Chivas - Mentioned as the team to which Gutierrez was sold and as a potential destination for Joseph Martinez.
  • Galaxy - Mentioned as the team to which Jacob Glesnes was traded.
  • San Diego - Mentioned as the team to which Lewis Morgan was traded.
  • Rapids - Mentioned as the team to which Dante Sealy was traded.
  • Chicago Fire - Mentioned as a team of interest for the upcoming season, with a focus on potential roster surgery and defensive improvements.
  • TFC (Toronto FC) - Mentioned as a team that had a dreadful start to the season but has been improving.
  • Sporting Kansas City - Mentioned as a team that had a very bad expected goal difference and is undergoing changes.
  • NYCF C (New York City Football Club) - Mentioned in relation to David Lee's time there.
  • City Football Group - Mentioned in relation to decisions and constraints at NYCF C.
  • D.C. United - Mentioned as a team that had a bad expected goal difference and is a potential candidate for being the worst team.
  • Montreal - Mentioned as a team that may be slightly better than last year.
  • St. Louis City SC - Mentioned as a team that took steps back after their initial season.
  • LAFC - Mentioned as a potential destination for Christian Espinoza.
  • Pumas - Mentioned as a potential destination for Chicho Arango.
  • Tampa Bay Rowdies - Mentioned as a team Joe Cole played for.
  • Celtic - Mentioned as the team Wilfred Nancy is currently coaching.
  • Hearts - Mentioned as a team that defeated Celtic.
  • Roma - Mentioned as a team that defeated Celtic in the Europa League.
  • St. Mirren - Mentioned as a team that defeated Celtic in a cup final.
  • New England - Mentioned as a potential future employer for Wilfred Nancy.
  • Red Bulls - Mentioned in relation to their overhaul and new hires, with concerns about short-term performance.
  • LA Galaxy - Mentioned as a team that may struggle in the upcoming season, despite the return of Ricky Puig.
  • L.A. (Los Angeles) - Mentioned as a team that will likely be better than last year.
  • San Jose Earthquakes - Mentioned as a team that may be worse than negative 17 expected goal difference, with concerns about their organizational direction.
  • Houston - Mentioned as a team that may not improve and could walk back again.
  • Portland - Mentioned as a Western Conference team that could potentially be worse than negative 17 expected goal difference.
  • Austin - Mentioned as a team that may be better than last year.
  • RSL (Real Salt Lake) - Mentioned as a team that had terrible underlying numbers and is reportedly overhauling things.
  • Montreal - Mentioned as a team that may be slightly better than last year.
  • St. Louis - Mentioned as a team that may be slightly better than last year.
  • LA - Mentioned as a team that will definitely be better than last year.
  • DC United - Mentioned as a team that may be worse than negative 17 expected goal difference.
  • Chivas - Mentioned as a team that Joseph Martinez signed for.
  • Pumas - Mentioned as a potential destination for Chicho Arango.
  • San Diego - Mentioned as a team that may break the trend of new organizations taking steps back.
  • St. Louis City SC - Mentioned as a team that took steps back after their initial season.
  • Austin - Mentioned as a team that took steps back after their initial season.
  • New York Red Bulls - Mentioned as a team that may be headed in a concerning direction in the short term.
  • San Jose - Mentioned as a team that may not improve and could walk back again.
  • LA Galaxy - Mentioned as a team that may struggle in the upcoming season.
  • Red Bull Global - Mentioned in relation to potential direction for the New York Red Bulls.
  • City Football Group - Mentioned in relation to decisions and constraints at NYCF C.
  • MLS - Mentioned as the league where the MLS Cup final took place and for its operational structure.
  • Patreon - Mentioned as a way to support the show and access exclusive content.
  • Discord - Mentioned as a platform for community interaction for supporters.

Tools & Software

  • Acast - Mentioned in relation to podcast hosting and privacy information.
  • Viz Hub - Mentioned as a tool available through Patreon.
  • Simulator Tool - Mentioned as a tool available through Patreon for season and match week simulations.

Websites & Online Resources

  • acast.com/privacy - Mentioned for more information on privacy.
  • fbref.com - Mentioned for accessing historical MLS data.

Podcasts & Audio

  • American Soccer Analysis Show (ASA Show) - Mentioned as the podcast where the episode is being broadcast.
  • Soccer Wise - Mentioned as a source of information.

Other Resources

  • Gam (General Allocation Money) - Mentioned in relation to roster moves and expansion franchise benefits.
  • TAM (Target Allocation Money) - Mentioned in relation to roster moves.
  • Expected Goal Difference (xG) - Mentioned as a metric for evaluating team performance.
  • Goals Added (xG + xA) - Mentioned as a metric for evaluating player performance.
  • Expected Goals (xG) - Mentioned as a metric for evaluating team performance.
  • Expected Assists (xA) - Mentioned as a metric for evaluating player performance.
  • Next Pro

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