Miami's Tactical Shift to Chance Quality Fuels Playoff Success

Deep Dive

The discussion begins with an assessment of the MLS semi-final matches. The speakers express that only the initial stages of both games were particularly engaging, with Vancouver's performance being consistently good throughout their match, while New York City's second half was less so.

The conversation then shifts to the Eastern Conference final, where Inter Miami defeated New York City FC. The initial scoreline of 5-1 is debated, with one speaker suggesting that based on expected goals (xG), the game was closer to a 2-1 result. New York City FC reportedly created few chances, with their only goal coming from a set piece. They were unable to utilize their typical deep-lying transition strategy due to being behind for much of the game. Despite Lionel Messi only having one assist and a low xG contribution, Inter Miami still managed to score five goals.

A significant tactical shift noted for Inter Miami in the playoffs is the benching of Luis Suárez. This decision is seen as a major narrative twist that has altered the team's technical and tactical approach. Instead of a possession-based game against a compact New York City FC, Inter Miami exploited the space behind New York City's disjointed and poor center-backs, particularly on the wings, a tactic not typically associated with New York City FC. This successful exploitation of space is attributed to players recognizing and executing well in those areas, rather than a pre-planned strategy.

Specific statistical data is presented regarding Inter Miami's chance quality. In their 5-1 win against New York City FC, they generated 2.8 xG on 12 shots. Prior to that, against Cincinnati, they had 2.8 xG on 14 shots, and against Nashville, they recorded 2.1 xG on 12 shots, followed by 1.7 xG on 11 shots in a previous match. The speakers highlight that these figures represent a significantly high xG per shot, with averages north of 0.2, compared to the league average of around 0.11 or 0.12. This heightened chance quality is linked to the addition of pace in their attack, facilitated by not playing Suárez, allowing them to run in behind defenses.

The defensive performance of Inter Miami during the playoffs is also discussed. While they are acknowledged to be overperforming their xG, this is seen as expected given their ability to generate high-quality chances rather than simply peppering a bunkered defense. Their defensive solidity has been evident throughout the playoffs, even against Nashville, where they conceded less than one expected goal in their last encounter. The defensive statistics against Nashville show 0.6 xG conceded in one game and 0.7 xG (including a penalty) in another, with low shot totals conceded. Against New York City FC, they conceded 0.5 xG on seven shots.

The coaching decision by Tata Martino to bench Luis Suárez is praised, with the speaker noting the difficulty of such a decision given Suárez's stature. The tactical flexibility of Inter Miami, particularly the Messi false nine formation with speedy wingers running in behind, is seen as working well for them on both offense and defense. This approach is considered effective for the playoff format, which involves fewer games and more preparation time, often played at home.

The discussion then turns to potential future tactical considerations for Inter Miami. It is suggested that this current approach, with Messi as a false nine and quick wingers, might be the blueprint for next season, potentially with different players interchanging. However, it is also noted that key players like Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba may be departing, indicating the team will likely not look the same. The benefit of this playoff strategy is acknowledged to be more rapid attacks, but it is questioned whether this intensity can be sustained over a full regular season with more demanding schedules and travel.

Moving to the Western Conference, Vancouver Whitecaps defeated San Diego Loyal 3-1. The scoreline is considered misleading, with the game being more dominant for Vancouver than the score suggests. Brian White scored early, followed by an own goal and another goal from White before halftime. San Diego managed a consolation goal in the second half and had a player sent off, but their late chances were not of significant consequence.

The performance of Vancouver's center-backs is re-evaluated, with the speakers acknowledging they were tested less than anticipated, particularly after San Diego scored. Despite Vancouver soaking up possession, they did not appear significantly threatened, even by players with low offensive output like Corey Baird. The discussion touches on the potential disciplinary issues surrounding Chooch Lozano, with conflicting reports on whether his absence was due to injury or disciplinary problems, but emphasizes that in the playoffs, winning is paramount.

Specific players for Vancouver are highlighted, including Ralph Piche and Laborda, who had good games at center-back. However, Halibuni will be unavailable for the final, though Blackman is returning. Ali Ahmed's dribbling performance against Ian Pilcher is described as exceptionally impressive, drawing comparisons to memorable individual dribbling moments in soccer and hockey.

The potential weaknesses for Vancouver in the final against Inter Miami are explored. The danger of Inter Miami's ability to run in behind is identified, particularly if Vancouver plays a possession-dominant game and then concedes possession to Messi with space for quick wingers. Despite this, the matchup is seen as potentially the best possible final scenario, with both teams demonstrating strong playoff performances.

The tactical approach to marking Messi is debated, with the conventional wisdom suggesting a man-marking strategy by Vancouver's Andres Cubas. However, the speakers lean towards preventing progression to Messi and limiting ball distribution into the midfield and false nine position, setting traps within Miami's defined progression system. The effectiveness of man-marking Messi is questioned, with the preference being to force him to receive the ball in less optimal locations.

The role of Jordi Alba in Inter Miami's attack is also a focal point. The space behind Alba's advanced positioning is identified as a potential vulnerability for Vancouver to exploit. The matchup between Vancouver's attacking fullbacks and Miami's dangerous winger, Sabi, is considered. One speaker suggests that Vancouver might need to compromise their defensive shape to cover Miami's overload on that side, creating space that can be exploited.

Defensive lineup considerations for Vancouver are discussed, including the potential positioning of Laborda and Blackman, and the inclusion of Tate Johnson. The aerial advantage of Laborda against the smaller Jordi Alba is noted as a potential factor. Alternative starting lineups for Vancouver are proposed, considering player fitness and the need for a "super sub" with high quality and energy for potential extra time.

A brief mention is made of Vancouver's past encounters with Inter Miami in the CONCACAF Champions League semifinals, where Vancouver won convincingly on aggregate. However, the teams are now significantly different, making those games less informative for the current final.

The speakers then offer their predictions for the final. One speaker picks Inter Miami, citing their playoff momentum and the advantage of playing at home. Another speaker expresses a belief in Vancouver as a "team of destiny," but ultimately defaults to Miami due to home advantage and referencing a past heavy defeat for Vancouver in a CCL final. The reasoning for picking Miami emphasizes their "Frankenstein's