Points and Miles Strategies Cause Financial Drain Without Discipline
TL;DR
- Failing to assign a monetary value to personal time leads to inefficient allocation, as time spent on low-value optimization tasks could be more profitably spent on income-generating activities or personal well-being.
- Chasing airline status incurs significant opportunity costs by foregoing higher returns from alternative credit card spending, potentially costing thousands of dollars annually.
- Overvaluing points by comparing them to inflated retail prices for one-way flights or premium cabins ignores the true cost and alternative cash-back opportunities.
- Hoarding points can lead to value erosion due to devaluations and missed opportunities, as cashing out points for travel portals or statement credits offers a guaranteed, albeit lower, return.
- The perceived value of points is often inflated by comparing them to unrealistic cash prices, neglecting the benefits of cash bookings like earning more points and status.
- Mistaking the retail value of flights booked with points for their true value overlooks the opportunity cost of not using cash and earning cashback or other benefits.
Deep Dive
Chris Hutchins' "My Top 5 Mistakes with Points & Miles" podcast episode identifies critical missteps in travel rewards optimization: undervaluing time, neglecting opportunity costs, chasing status, overvaluing points, and hoarding them instead of cashing out. These errors collectively lead to diminished returns and missed financial opportunities, suggesting a fundamental re-evaluation of how individuals approach points and miles is necessary for true value maximization.
The core argument is that the pursuit of points and miles, while often framed as a way to save money or gain perks, can become a net financial drain if not approached with rigorous financial discipline and a clear understanding of true value. Hutchins details how seemingly small inefficiencies compound over time, leading to significant opportunity losses.
First, not valuing time means engaging in activities that yield less than one's personal minimum hourly rate. This includes excessive time spent searching for deals, managing small refunds, or booking speculative travel, effectively costing more in forgone earnings or personal time than is saved. The implication is that a strict cost-benefit analysis, factoring in mental overhead and personal priorities, should guide engagement with any points-related activity.
Second, neglecting opportunity cost arises when pursuing one reward path without considering the superior returns available through alternative credit card spending strategies. For instance, spending to achieve airline status on one card can mean forgoing higher cashback or more valuable points earned on a different card, transforming a perceived status gain into a significant financial loss. This highlights the need to compare the net value of the chosen strategy against its best alternative.
Third, chasing status often leads to overspending on credit cards for marginal benefits that do not outweigh the cost of forgone opportunities or the price of simply purchasing the desired service. While milestone benefits can sometimes offset the cost, the true value is highly dependent on individual utilization and often overestimated. The implication is that status should only be pursued if its benefits demonstrably exceed its acquisition cost, considering all alternative uses of funds and time.
Fourth, overvaluing points is a pervasive issue, often driven by inflated valuations found in travel blogs that fail to account for real-world booking constraints and alternatives. Hutchins demonstrates how comparing award redemptions against the inflated "retail value" of flights can mask a lower actual value when considering factors like one-way vs. round-trip pricing, alternative cash routes, and the value of miles earned from cash bookings. This suggests that points are often worth less than commonly believed, necessitating a more conservative and comparative valuation approach.
Finally, not cashing out points represents a failure to recognize that points, like any currency, can depreciate and that holding them indefinitely forfeits their potential to be converted into tangible assets or even cash. While travel portals and direct cash-out options may offer less than optimal redemption rates, they provide a guaranteed floor value and can be more advantageous than letting points devalue or expire. The implication is that a strategic approach to liquidating points, especially those that are not easily redeemed for high value, can be financially prudent.
Ultimately, Hutchins' analysis underscores that the true value derived from a points and miles strategy hinges on a disciplined financial mindset. It requires actively quantifying the cost of time, opportunity, and redemption, rather than relying on generalized valuations. Failing to do so risks turning a potentially rewarding hobby into a significant financial drain.
Action Items
- Calculate personal minimum hourly rate: Determine a baseline value for time to evaluate deal profitability.
- Quantify opportunity cost: For 3-5 key spending decisions, compare potential earnings from alternative cards versus current choices.
- Audit status value: For 2-3 airline or hotel programs, assess the cost of achieving status against the monetary value of benefits received.
- Model point redemption scenarios: For 3-5 high-value redemptions, compare point value against cash purchase price, factoring in cashback and loyalty earnings.
- Track point conversion rates: For 2-3 point currencies, experiment with cashing out a small percentage (e.g., 5-10%) to establish a baseline cash value.
Key Quotes
"I've driven to Costco to check for gold that was out of stock. I've sat on hold for an hour to get a small refund for a price drop. I have booked flights, hotels, or even entire vacations I never ended up taking. I have compared cashback portals for really small purchases that I probably sometimes even returned. I've endlessly scrolled through blogs, emails, Slack, WhatsApp, websites to try to find the latest deals. I've built dozens of spreadsheets to optimize just about everything when it comes to my points and miles journey and probably even my entire life."
Chris Hutchins highlights how he has historically spent his time on activities that, in retrospect, did not provide sufficient value. He uses these examples to illustrate his first mistake: not valuing his time. Hutchins suggests that many of these activities were entertainment rather than productive endeavors, and that a minimum hourly rate can help evaluate whether a task is worthwhile.
"On the flip side, let's say you had the US Bank Altitude Reserve Card. This is a card that a person I was talking to about this scenario, because this is a real scenario, they actually had this card, and the kind of purchases they were making were ones where they could have been using mobile wallet, and they would have gotten 3x on their spend, which with that Altitude Reserve Card, which unfortunately is no longer available and for people who have it will be kneecapped and not be as effective towards the end of the year, but would have earned 4.5% back because you can make all of those points that you earn worth 1.5 cents time rewards to get value from them. So that same $270,000 would have earned $12,150 worth of cashback."
Chris Hutchins uses this example to explain the concept of opportunity cost in the context of credit card spending. He contrasts earning United miles and status with earning cashback on a different card, demonstrating how the choice of which card to use for spending can have a significant financial implication. Hutchins emphasizes that the "actual cost" of achieving a goal like airline status is not just the fees involved but also the value of what could have been earned elsewhere.
"On American, I flew American three times, but the original reason that I started going for American status was that I was flying Alaska a lot, and I thought, "I can't earn high enough Alaska status as I wanted from credit cards and flights, so if I could earn American status, they have reciprocal benefits on Alaska, let's just go for American status." And right as I was almost done with that journey, Alaska releases a card with uncapped ability to earn elite qualifying points for credit card spend on the new Summit card, and I was like, "I know ultimately if I'm going to fly Alaska, I should have Alaska status, not American." So for the three flights I took on American this year, they were all after that switch, and so I put in my Alaska number, I booked those flights through Alaska, and because Alaska earns elite status on award flights, I earned Alaska status, not American status."
Chris Hutchins illustrates his mistake of chasing status by detailing his complex and ultimately misaligned pursuit of American Airlines status. He explains how he initially aimed for American status due to perceived benefits with Alaska Airlines, only to pivot when Alaska introduced a new card that made earning Alaska status more feasible. Hutchins highlights that he ended up with American status but had not flown American, demonstrating a disconnect between his efforts and actual travel patterns.
"So here's the example I want to walk through. I looked at a nonstop San Francisco to London flight, found one on saver availability with American for 57,500 points. Now, it had higher taxes and fees, it was $733 of fees and taxes, but the flight was $3,300. So that's a 4.5 cent per point flight. And I think everyone listening is thinking, "Gosh, I'm going to get a $3,300 flight for 57,500 points plus $733 in taxes, what a deal!" That's not even a fair comparison, right? One-way flights are often so expensive. Is $3,300 the right number to look at?"
Chris Hutchins uses this example to challenge the common perception of high point valuations, arguing that the initial calculation of cents per point can be misleading. He demonstrates how comparing a one-way flight's cash price to the points required can inflate the perceived value of points. Hutchins suggests that a more realistic comparison, considering round-trip flights and alternative booking methods, significantly reduces the calculated value of points.
"What this means is if you have a million points sitting in one of these accounts, it's worth at least $10,000. And so I'm not saying you can't get more than $10,000 of value, but when you think about opportunity cost, you got to consider that if you wanted to cash out 1 million points for $10,000 or 10 million points for $100,000, like that is an option. I'm still making this mistake. I haven't brought myself to do it. I keep looking at the historical earning and spending. I think my strategy going forward should be to keep enough points for two years of travel so that I have the opportunity to do that. But everything else, I'm not sure I need it."
Chris Hutchins explains his fifth mistake: not cashing out points, which he views as a missed opportunity for tangible value. He highlights that even conservative cash-out options can provide a significant dollar amount for accumulated points, which is often overlooked. Hutchins admits he struggles with this strategy, preferring to hold points for future travel, but acknowledges that points can devalue over time, making cash-out options a valuable consideration.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Points Guy" - Mentioned in relation to valuations of airline and transferable points.
Articles & Papers
- "What are points worth" - Mentioned as a previous episode that went deeper into point valuations.
People
- Chris Hutchins - Host of the podcast.
Organizations & Institutions
- American Airlines - Mentioned in relation to status chasing and loyalty points.
- Alaska Airlines - Mentioned in relation to status chasing, credit card spend, and route changes.
- Chase - Mentioned in relation to credit cards and point redemptions.
- Delta - Mentioned in relation to status chasing and credit card benefits.
- Hilton - Mentioned in relation to hotel point valuations and free night certificates.
- Hyatt - Mentioned in relation to hotel point valuations.
- Southwest Airlines - Mentioned in relation to status chasing and credit card benefits.
- United Airlines - Mentioned in relation to status chasing, premier qualifying points, and plus points.
Websites & Online Resources
- Gola - Mentioned as a source for hotel booking data.
- Points Path - Mentioned as a source for hotel booking data.
Other Resources
- AI - Mentioned as a technology that businesses are looking to implement.
- Cashback - Mentioned as an alternative to earning points.
- Credit Card Spend - Discussed as a method for earning status and points.
- Crypto App - Mentioned as an example of a deal with a high hourly return.
- Element - Mentioned as a hydration and electrolyte supplement.
- Gelt - Mentioned as a modern CPA service for personal and business taxes.
- Hyatt Globalist - Mentioned as a desired status.
- NetSuite by Oracle - Mentioned as an ERP system that can integrate AI.
- Plastiq - Mentioned as a service for paying bills with credit cards.
- Points Programs - Discussed in relation to travel portals and point redemption.
- Superhuman - Mentioned as an email client for enhanced productivity.
- Travel Portals - Discussed as a method for redeeming points for travel.