NBA Officiating Favors Offense, Frustrating Fans and Undermining Defense

Thinking Basketball · December 25, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

The NBA's officiating trend favors offense, leading to fan dissatisfaction and a perceived decline in defensive play, despite increasing player skill and strategic complexity.
Reed Sheppard's emergence as an "X-factor" for the Rockets, particularly when paired with Jonas Valanciunas, demonstrates his potential to significantly impact games offensively.
Houston's "jumbo lineups" leverage size and physicality to neutralize opponents, forcing mismatches and creating offensive rebounding opportunities that challenge traditional defensive schemes.
Kevin Durant's consistent tough shot-making provides a steadying offensive force for the Rockets, but his playmaking can falter under intense defensive pressure, potentially limiting playoff success.
Nikola Jokic's passing effectiveness is diminished by the Rockets' disciplined defense, creating opportunities for Alperen Sengun to showcase his own playmaking and post-up game.
Victor Wembanyama is on pace for historically elite defensive metrics, with his on-court presence significantly improving the Spurs' defensive efficiency, indicating a transformative impact.
The Celtics' decision to bench their starters and keep rookie Ugo Gonzalez on the court highlights his significant positive impact on team efficiency, despite minimal offensive statistics.

Deep Dive

The NBA's current officiating trend favors offensive play, creating an unbalanced game that frustrates fans, players, and broadcasters alike. This shift, observed over several seasons and particularly pronounced in 2026, prioritizes offensive freedom to such an extent that it undermines defensive integrity and strategic complexity, potentially impacting the league's long-term appeal despite unprecedented individual skill displays.

The league's evolving officiating has led to a situation where offensive actions are consistently rewarded, creating a "run you over" mentality among players. This has a cascading effect: fans express dissatisfaction, star players like Jaylen Brown feel compelled to "sell their soul" to manipulate officials, and broadcasters lament the lack of consistent rule interpretation. The core issue is not necessarily a change in the written rules, but their interpretation and enforcement, leading to a game that prioritizes offensive exploitation over defensive grit and strategic nuance. This is further exacerbated by the league's lopsided schedule, where some teams play significantly more games against top competition than others, distorting the perceived competitive balance.

Within this context, the Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets series offers a compelling microcosm of current NBA dynamics, particularly highlighting the emergence of rookie Reed Sheppard as a significant offensive factor for Houston. Sheppard's performance, averaging 23 points per game on 68% true shooting across the series, suggests he can be an "X-factor" for the Rockets, especially when paired with Alperen Sengun. His ability to provide an offensive spark, particularly with his shooting and offensive rebounding, offers a unique dimension to the Rockets' roster, which otherwise struggles with consistent shooting beyond their primary scorers. This offensive contribution, coupled with the Rockets' overall physicality and defensive intensity, creates a "grimy" style of play that can challenge even elite teams like the Nuggets. The Rockets' "jumbo lineups," featuring multiple large players, leverage their size and strength to battle physically, forcing opponents into difficult situations and capitalizing on offensive rebounding. This approach, while effective, raises questions about its sustainability in the playoffs, particularly if their shooting from perimeter players like Sheppard and Kevin Durant falters.

Furthermore, the emergence of young players like Victor Wembanyama and Ugo Gonzalez presents intriguing case studies in defensive impact and unconventional player development. Wembanyama is on pace for historically significant defensive plus-minus numbers, demonstrating a transformative impact on his team's defense. Gonzalez, despite minimal offensive statistics, consistently generates positive defensive impact for the Boston Celtics, highlighting a growing trend of players whose value is not captured by traditional box scores. These players, along with Sheppard, represent a new wave of talent whose unique skill sets challenge conventional evaluation metrics, indicating a potential shift in how defensive contributions and overall player effectiveness are assessed in the league. The Rockets' ability to engage in "rock fights" and grind out wins, exemplified by their approach against the Nuggets, suggests a team built for playoff intensity, where their physicality and the emergence of players like Sheppard could prove crucial, even if their offensive ceiling is debated.

Action Items

Audit officiating trends: Analyze 2026 season data to identify specific rule interpretations favoring offense and document their impact on game flow.
Create defensive evaluation framework: Define metrics for assessing defensive impact beyond traditional box scores, focusing on player positioning and disruption (ref: Ugo Gonzalez example).
Implement player evaluation rubric: Develop criteria to assess defensive contributions and off-ball impact for players like Reed Sheppard, considering their size and athleticism.
Track offensive rebounding impact: Measure how offensive rebounding contributes to overall offensive efficiency for teams with limited perimeter shooting.
Analyze team performance against elite competition: Remove bottom-tier teams from standings to assess true team strength and identify outliers (ref: margin of victory analysis).

Key Quotes

"I feel like uh frank costanza in the episode of seinfeld where he unburdens himself to elaine that's how I felt I needed to get this off my chest I needed to get this out of me and now it's now it's out in the ether it was probably the most painful video emotionally that I've had to make just having to watch all that nonsense and then having to see my beloved NBA um you know devolve into whatever is happening this season with some of the officiating"

Ben expresses the emotional toll of creating content critical of the NBA's officiating. He likens the experience to a cathartic release, indicating the depth of his concern for the league's current state. This highlights the personal investment and difficulty involved in critiquing the game he loves.

"I think one thing that I want to say and you know sometimes it's a good thing and a bad thing to wait into the comments I just I just like to see the direction of what people are saying trying to sift between maybe bot accounts and real accounts and what people are saying but overall what I have to say is that across the board most people really appreciate what you were saying they're like wow if if Ben is saying this somebody who celebrates the game so much somebody that's been such a championship for the NBA this is something we should probably take seriously"

Cody observes that the audience generally resonates with Ben's critical analysis of the NBA, even when it comes from someone who deeply appreciates the game. This suggests that Ben's credibility as a long-time supporter lends weight to his criticisms. It indicates that fans are receptive to thoughtful critiques from trusted voices.

"I just wanted to be crystal clear on that that this was very much a continued story about the evolution of these rules focusing on 2026 I think one thing that I want to say and you know sometimes it's a good thing and a bad thing to wait into the comments I just I just like to see the direction of what people are saying trying to sift between maybe bot accounts and real accounts and what people are saying but overall what I have to say is that across the board most people really appreciate what you were saying"

Ben clarifies that his critique of officiating is part of an ongoing narrative about rule evolution, specifically referencing the 2026 season. He notes that audience comments generally validate his perspective. This emphasizes the long-term nature of his observations and the positive reception they receive.

"My new favorite thing in basketball after watching it for so many years is watching a player try to grift and the ref just look at him and be like we're not going to call that and it's just the worst looking possible play you could possibly imagine and it's sort of it's sort of that thing where like if refs call it that way the players will adopt very quickly because it's very embarrassing to run down the lane and and throw the ball 30 feet up in the air and just go ah and have nothing happen"

Ben describes a newfound enjoyment in observing players attempt to "grift" or deceive referees, only to be ignored. He believes that when referees consistently refuse to reward such attempts, players will quickly abandon them. This highlights Ben's appreciation for authentic play and his observation of how player behavior adapts to officiating.

"The strategy and the tactics are the best they've ever been I mean there's some really really interesting basketball and the skill is just incredible and I'm not talking about this sort of played out like skill debate about where players in the old days unskilled I'm talking about the totality of the skill on the floor at all times players in the old days they said if you're big go to the post and you don't dribble and now we're just seeing this like positionless just fluid skill"

Ben argues that the current era of basketball features unprecedented strategic depth and player skill. He contrasts this with past eras, emphasizing the evolution towards positionless play and fluid offensive capabilities. This underscores Ben's belief in the game's current high level of sophistication and talent.

"My mission is to give defense a chance Cody give defense a chance that's my mission"

Ben states his personal objective is to advocate for and restore a greater emphasis on defense in basketball. This concise declaration encapsulates his core belief about what would improve the game. It frames his critique of offensive-leaning officiating as a means to achieve this broader goal.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"Spaced Out" by Mike Prada - Referenced for discussion on the evolution of the gather step and its definition.

Articles & Papers

"The Evolution of Isolation" (Thinking Basketball) - Discussed as an example of how offensive strategy changes when players have versatile skills.

People

Mike Prada - Mentioned in relation to his book "Spaced Out" and its discussion on gather steps.
Jaylen Brown - Quoted regarding the perceived need to "sell your soul" to manipulate officials.
Reggie Miller - Mentioned as a broadcaster who has commented on officiating ambiguities.
JJ Redick - Mentioned as a former player who has commented on officiating ambiguities.
Chris Finch - Mentioned as a coach who was recently ejected from a game.
Wemby - Mentioned in relation to his defensive statistics and potential for historic defensive plus/minus numbers.
Chet Holmgren - Mentioned for his defensive impact on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Kason Wallace - Mentioned in relation to his defensive impact as a potential starter.
Kemba Matumbo - Mentioned as a player who has achieved a double-digit change in defensive rating.
Tim Duncan - Mentioned for his defensive rating.
Kevin Garnett - Mentioned for his defensive rating.
Chris Paul - Mentioned for attempting a "60-foot three-point shot" and a specific play involving a veer into an opponent.
Rajon Rondo - Mentioned in relation to a specific Chris Paul play.
Derrick Favors - Mentioned as a player who was considered for a draft pick.
Jaime Jaquez - Mentioned as a player considered for a draft pick.
Reed Sheppard - Discussed as a potential "X-Factor" for the Houston Rockets and his scoring performance against the Nuggets.
Kevin Durant - Mentioned for his tough shot-making and its steadying effect on the Rockets, as well as passing issues when faced with strong coverage.
Jabari Smith Jr. - Discussed as a steady player with a skill set suited for championship contenders and his offensive contributions.
Amen Thompson - Discussed for his offensive rebounding and athleticism, and his role in the Rockets' jumbo lineups.
Steven Adams - Mentioned as a player who requires significant effort to box out.
Alperen Sengun - Discussed in relation to his post-up play and passing ability, particularly in matchups against Nikola Jokic.
Nikola Jokic - Discussed in relation to his post-up play and passing, and his matchups against Alperen Sengun.
Jamal Murray - Mentioned for his offensive actions and matchups against Rockets players.
Aaron Gordon - Mentioned as an injured player for the Nuggets whose absence impacts their physicality.
Christian Brown - Mentioned as an injured player for the Nuggets who thrives in physicality.
Jalen Green - Mentioned for his three-point shooting in a specific game.
Fred VanVleet - Mentioned in the context of the Rockets' team performance after his injury.
Allen Iverson - Used as a defensive comparison for Reed Sheppard's play style.
Joe Mazzulla - Praised for his coaching decisions, including benching the starting lineup and keeping Ugo Gonzalez on the court.
Ugo Gonzalez - Discussed as a 19-year-old rookie whose defensive impact and presence significantly benefit the Celtics, despite low offensive statistics.

Organizations & Institutions

NBA (National Basketball Association) - Discussed in relation to officiating trends and player skill evolution.
Houston Rockets - Discussed in relation to their jumbo lineups, defensive performance, and the impact of Reed Sheppard.
Denver Nuggets - Discussed in relation to their matchups against the Houston Rockets and player availability.
Oklahoma City Thunder - Mentioned as a top team in the league and in relation to their defensive performance.
Boston Celtics - Discussed in relation to their offensive strategy and the impact of Ugo Gonzalez.
New Orleans - Mentioned in relation to team performance and standings.
Dallas - Mentioned in relation to team performance and standings.
Pistons - Mentioned as a team with a strong win pace after removing lower-ranked teams.
Spurs - Mentioned as a team with a strong win pace after removing lower-ranked teams.
Golden State - Mentioned in relation to a specific Reed Sheppard scoring game.
Washington Wizards - Mentioned in relation to a specific Reed Sheppard scoring game.
Miami Heat - Mentioned in relation to a video on the evolution of isolation play.
Philadelphia - Mentioned in the context of Allen Iverson's playing history.
Milwaukee Bucks - Mentioned in relation to the Minnesota Timberwolves' performance.

Websites & Online Resources

Patreon (www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball) - Mentioned as a platform for supporting the podcast and accessing exclusive content.
YouTube - Mentioned as a platform for accessing videos.

Other Resources

2026 Season - Discussed in relation to officiating trends and the evolution of rules favoring offense.
2025 Season - Mentioned as a period with similar officiating trends to 2026.
2024 Playoffs - Mentioned as a period where increased physicality was allowed, impacting game dynamics.
2021 Season - Mentioned in relation to previous discussions on officiating.
2022 Season - Mentioned in relation to previous discussions on officiating.
2024 Season - Mentioned in relation to previous discussions on officiating.
25 Under 25 - Mentioned as a topic of discussion.
Gather Step - Discussed in relation to rule interpretation and definition changes.
Offensive Rebounding - Discussed as a significant aspect of the Houston Rockets' strategy.
Margin of Victory - Discussed as a metric for evaluating team performance, with a focus on historical outliers.
Odyssey Trailer - Mentioned as a topic of interest related to Hollywood costumes.
Iliad - Mentioned as a potential subject for a movie.
Jason and the Argonauts (1950s) - Mentioned as a classic example of a mythologically based movie.
Disney's Hercules - Mentioned as a mythologically based movie.
Troy (movie) - Mentioned as a film that Cody enjoys.
Armand Asante two-part television movie - Mentioned as a deep cut related to "The Odyssey."