Dismantling Post-WWII Order: Coercion Over Alliances

The post-WWII international order, built on cooperation and shared prosperity, is demonstrably fraying. This conversation with historian Adam Tooze and political scientist Ivan Krastev reveals that the "America First" narrative, far from being a pragmatic shift, is rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of American power and a dangerous embrace of an outdated, coercive model of global engagement. The hidden consequences of this approach are a destabilized world order, weakened alliances, and a dangerous precedent for a return to "might makes right." This analysis is essential for anyone seeking to understand the systemic shifts undermining global stability and the long-term risks of transactional, rather than relational, foreign policy. It offers a crucial advantage in recognizing the fragility of current systems and the potential for cascading failures.

The post-World War II international order, a complex architecture of alliances, trade agreements, and shared norms, is undergoing a profound and unsettling transformation. This conversation with historian Adam Tooze and political scientist Ivan Krastev, hosted by Jon Stewart, dissects the forces driving this erosion, particularly through the lens of an "America First" ideology. Far from a simple policy adjustment, the underlying worldview being promoted represents a radical departure from the principles that underpinned decades of relative global stability, with potentially catastrophic downstream effects.

At the heart of the discussion is the critique of a "coerced compliance" model of international relations, championed by figures like Donald Trump. This approach, rooted in a transactional, zero-sum understanding of power, fundamentally misunderstands the foundations of American influence. Tooze and Krastev argue that the post-war order, while imperfect, was built on the "enlightened self-interest" of fostering global prosperity and cooperation, creating incentives for peace rather than conquest. This was not a "suckers' bet," as the MAGA narrative suggests, but a deliberate strategy that generated unprecedented wealth and stability for the United States and its allies.

The fragility of liberal democratic institutions, particularly in the United States, is a recurring theme. Krastev highlights how norms, once the bedrock of checks and balances, have been systematically dismantled, leaving the system vulnerable to executive overreach. The Constitution, while venerable, contains ambiguities that, in the absence of strong norms, allow for the erosion of established processes. This is not merely about breaking rules; it's about exposing the weakness of enforcement mechanisms when a powerful executive decides to ignore them.

"The founders really could not have imagined these political parties that are so loyal to the party and to the president as the head of the party that they completely abdicate their institutional loyalty to Congress."

This abdication of institutional loyalty, particularly within Congress, creates a dangerous vacuum. When legislative bodies become subservient to executive whims, the essential checks and balances designed to prevent tyranny become "completely notional." The consequence is a system where the rule of law is subordinate to the will of a single individual, a scenario that Krastev likens to the historical precedent of Andrew Jackson’s defiance of the Supreme Court.

The conversation then pivots to the systemic implications of this shift on a global scale. Tooze points out the stark contrast between the post-1945 era, characterized by a remarkable absence of wars of conquest, and the preceding century, rife with such conflicts. This shift was a direct result of the U.S.-led effort to build a rules-based international system, an endeavor that fostered economic interdependence and discouraged aggression. The current trajectory, however, signals a return to a more volatile, 19th-century model of realpolitik, but with the added existential threat of nuclear weapons.

The narrative of American decline, central to the MAGA ideology, is directly challenged by data presented by Tooze. He highlights that U.S. wages and economic growth have consistently outpaced those in Europe, and that American companies like Nvidia now possess market capitalizations larger than entire European stock exchanges. The perceived decline, he argues, is not an economic reality but a narrative constructed to justify a retreat from global leadership and a embrace of a more isolationist, colonialist mindset. This is further exemplified by the transactional approach to countries like Greenland and Venezuela, where the focus is on immediate resource extraction rather than long-term alliances.

"America created that world 80 years ago. Now, that world wasn't perfect, and certainly mistakes were made in terms of how liberalized globalization was and how you balanced your industry with other things, but it was remarkably successful. But in their vision, that world, the 80 years post-World War II, were the suckers' bet for the United States."

The "coerced compliance" strategy is also contrasted with the strength derived from alliances. While China has only one treaty ally (North Korea, plus Russia and Iran in a more tenuous sense), the United States boasts some 50 treaty allies, encompassing the world's wealthiest nations. The proposed shift away from these alliances to a model of regional dominance, focusing on the Western Hemisphere, is framed as a "shrinking of American power" and a miscalculation of where true prosperity and influence lie.

A particularly chilling aspect of the discussion is the analysis of historical cycles of intervention. Krastev draws parallels between the U.S. involvement in Venezuela and the 1953 coup in Iran, where Western powers installed a pro-Western leader in exchange for resources. This intervention, he argues, sowed the seeds of resentment that ultimately led to the Iranian Revolution and the rise of the current theocratic regime. The current approach in Venezuela, he warns, risks repeating this pattern, creating instability and anti-American sentiment where it previously did not exist.

"How do we not see that what we are starting in Venezuela is going to sow the seeds for the volatility and danger that we had already sowed in Iran in 1953? We're just repeating the same stupid cycle."

The conversation delves into the ideological underpinnings of this shift, moving from a democracy versus communism framework to a "woke versus unwoke" or "multiculturalism versus singular monoculture" paradigm. This cultural divide, Krastev and Tooze suggest, is what allows figures like JD Vance to view Russia as "the good guys" due to their shared conservative, Christian, and anti-liberal values. This internal alignment within the West with adversaries like Russia and China represents a significant departure from the Cold War era, where ideological competition compelled the U.S. to uphold democratic ideals.

The discussion concludes with a somber reflection on the future of the world order. The erosion of alliances and the embrace of a transactional, power-based approach leave allies like Canada, Australia, and the EU "disunited and leaderless." This multipolar world, reminiscent of the unstable 19th century but now armed with nuclear weapons, is a grim prospect. Yet, amidst this analysis, there's a flicker of hope. Tooze suggests that this is a "bad phase" and that "Americans don't like this," expressing a belief that the fever will eventually break. However, the persistent nature of this trend raises questions about the depth of the challenge and the long road ahead.

Key Action Items:

• Re-evaluate the foundational principles of international relations: Understand that enduring power stems from cooperation and shared interests, not coercion. This requires a shift in perspective from transactional gains to relational investments.
• Strengthen domestic democratic institutions: Prioritize the reinforcement of norms and legal frameworks that constrain executive power, ensuring that checks and balances remain robust.
• Invest in alliances: Recognize that the strength of the U.S. lies in its network of allies. Actively engage in and support these partnerships, rather than undermining them for short-term, unilateral gains.
• Challenge the narrative of decline: Counter the simplistic "America First" framing with factual data that demonstrates U.S. economic strength and the benefits of global engagement. This is a longer-term educational effort.
• Recognize historical precedents: Learn from past interventions and their unintended consequences, particularly in regions like Latin America and the Middle East, to avoid repeating cycles of instability.
• Embrace difficult truths about institutional fragility: Acknowledge that even established democracies are vulnerable. This requires constant vigilance and a willingness to address systemic weaknesses proactively.
• Cultivate patience for long-term payoffs: Understand that building trust and fostering global stability is a decades-long endeavor, not a series of quick transactions. Resist the urge for immediate gratification that undermines durable advantage.