Media Landscape Shifts: NFL Records, Playoff Dilution, and Netflix Sports

Deep Dive

The discussion begins with an examination of recent NFL Thanksgiving Day viewership numbers, noting that the Chiefs-Cowboys game on CBS achieved 57.2 million viewers, shattering the record for any NFL regular-season audience. This record was significantly influenced by the inclusion of out-of-home viewership, which was measured in 100% of markets by Nielsen this season, compared to approximately 65% last year. The Packers-Lions game on Fox also drew strong numbers, with 47.7 million viewers, marking the best early Thanksgiving game and the second-best NFL regular-season game on record. Additionally, the Bengals-Ravens game on NBC garnered 28.4 million viewers, the highest for a Thanksgiving night game since the slot was introduced in 2006. The source suggests that these record numbers might lead the NFL to consider Thanksgiving as a separate entity for future media rights deals.

The conversation then shifts to college basketball's performance on Thanksgiving, highlighting that InterSport placed two high-profile games on CBS and Fox to capitalize on the NFL audience. The Duke-Arkansas game on CBS in primetime delivered the best college basketball regular-season audience since 1993. Fox also saw its best college basketball audience on record with the Michigan State-North Carolina game following their NFL broadcast. These results demonstrate the significant sports audience potential of Thanksgiving Day.

Next, the focus moves to college football conference championship games from a media perspective, with Josh Carpenter joining host Austin Karp. The American Athletic Conference championship between North Texas and Tulane is mentioned as a game to watch on Friday night, with a potential CFP implication if Tulane wins. The SEC championship between Alabama and Georgia is highlighted as a rematch that, despite featuring two expected CFP teams, might face viewership fatigue given their frequent matchups. The Big Ten championship between undefeated Ohio State and Indiana is discussed, with the observation that it holds fewer stakes as both teams are anticipated to receive playoff byes regardless of the outcome. The ACC championship between Duke and Virginia is presented as having more significant implications, as a Duke win could potentially cost the ACC a College Football Playoff spot. The expanded 12-team playoff is discussed as potentially diluting the importance of these championship games, with the regular season mattering less in some instances.

The discussion then turns to the MLS Cup, which will be broadcast on Apple and Fox, featuring Lionel Messi and Inter Miami. The source anticipates that the game on Fox could approach 2 million viewers, potentially setting a record for MLS championship matches, though it is suggested that the novelty of Messi might have worn off slightly, making the 2 million mark a challenge for this year. The timing of the MLS Cup on Saturday is noted as being during college football's championship Saturday, which is seen as a less-than-ideal placement for maximizing viewership. Looking ahead in the broader soccer rights landscape, upcoming rights renewals for the Men's World Cup, Bundesliga, Premier League, MLS, La Liga, and UEFA Champions League are mentioned.

Moving to golf coverage, CBS is making changes to its PGA Tour broadcasts by elevating Colt Knost to the broadcast booth to replace Ian Baker-Finch. Knost, a former player, is expected to bring a different energy and a more witty, Gary McCord-esque style to the commentary, though his persona may need to adapt to the booth setting. The source notes that golf social media is divided on Knost's potential impact. The discussion also touches on the challenge of finding prominent former players to transition into analyst roles, contrasting it with the NFL's success with figures like Tony Romo. Trevor Immelman is cited as a successful example of a former top player in the booth, but the scarcity of multiple major winners of retirement age, partly due to the Tiger Woods era, is noted. Phil Mickelson is discussed as a potential analyst, but his involvement with LIV Golf is seen as a barrier to immediate opportunities with CBS or NBC, though he might be a draw for LIV broadcasts.

The conversation then addresses the ad load on the NFL Red Zone channel, with the source clarifying that the reported increase in ads was a misinterpretation. The NFL stated they would implement a double-box ad format with two minutes of commercials per broadcast, which was adhered to. While banner ads were also present, the source argues that the ad load is not intrusive and that complaints are amplified on social media, with most viewers not having an issue. The increase in Sunday Ticket subscriptions by 37% year-over-year in Q3 is also mentioned as an indicator of continued interest in watching football.

Next, the topic shifts to Netflix's sports initiatives, specifically the likely move of Elle Duncan from ESPN to Netflix. This move is interpreted as Netflix becoming a significant player in live sports, competing directly with ESPN. The source suggests Duncan will likely be a face for Netflix's upcoming sports packages, including NFL and women's sports. The trend of networks restricting their talent from appearing on competing platforms is also noted, which could create opportunities for free agents. On the documentary front, the renewal of "Quarterback" for a third season is discussed, while "Starting Five" will not return, indicating that not all sports documentaries are equally successful. "Full Swing" is also reported to be returning for a fourth season, but its future beyond that is uncertain due to a perceived focus on the PGA Tour and a potential lack of new discussion around the LIV Golf dynamic.

Finally, the segment touches on Dick Vitale calling March Madness games, including a First Four game with Charles Barkley. The source expresses enthusiasm for this pairing, noting that college basketball has changed significantly with the transfer portal and NIL, making it difficult to follow. However, the personalities of Vitale and Barkley are seen as a draw that might encourage viewing. The conversation concludes with an interview with Neema Ghazi of Joe Hand Promotions, discussing the distribution of sports programming to the commercial marketplace, including bars, restaurants, and casinos. Ghazi explains their role in bringing meaningful content to these venues, acting as advisors and elevating the profile of content partners like UFC, WWE, and ESPN. He also touches on the impact of streaming on pay-per-view events, noting that while residential viewing has shifted to subscription models, commercial exhibition of premium events remains a distinct business with a premium rate. Ghazi also expresses interest in the potential media conglomerate forming from Paramount's aggressive pursuit of rights, including discussions around acquiring Warner and potentially TikTok, which he believes could redefine the media landscape.