The Hidden Costs of the "More Is Better" Playoff Model

The push for a 24-team College Football Playoff (CFP) is framed as a growth strategy, but it shows a change in the sport's incentives. While supporters argue that expansion is needed to boost media rights value and give high-spending programs a path to the postseason, this strategy risks long-term brand damage by diluting the stakes of the regular season. Stakeholders need to distinguish between short-term revenue gains and the long-term health of the sport. The primary risk is that when access becomes too broad, the "event" nature of the sport, where every game carries heavy weight, turns into exhibition-style predictability that lowers the product's premium status.

The Paradox of Expanded Access

The drive toward a 24-team playoff is less about competitive fairness and more about a mechanical need to inflate media rights value. Current models, even at 16 or 20 teams, fail to attract the number of bidders needed to maximize the property's market value. By expanding to 24, the CFP creates a larger inventory of games, which invites competition from multiple networks.

However, this creates a downstream consequence: as access increases, the regular season loses its must-win intensity. When fewer than 10% of teams have access, every loss is a potential season-ender. As that threshold climbs, the system shifts from a high-stakes tournament to a participation-heavy league.

"To me, this expansion is something we should really be careful about. I know everyone wants more games and all that, but to me it will continue to water down the product."

-- Josh Carpenter

The "Mercenary" Production Model

The NFL's evolving approach to media rights, specifically the use of "mercenary" production partners, shows a shift in how leagues manage technical infrastructure. NBC's production of the Netflix-distributed game illustrates a temporary bridge strategy: leagues and platforms are willing to outsource the "how" of broadcasting to experts while they build their own internal capabilities.

This creates a clear competitive advantage for organizations that treat production as a core competency rather than a utility. As Amazon moves to bring its production in-house after the final season of its current arrangement, we see the limit of the "mercenary" model. Over time, the value is not just in the rights; it is in the ability to own the viewer experience from start to finish.

The Fractured Fan Experience

The current media landscape has led to a fractured reality where the super-fan must navigate multiple packages, platforms, and apps to follow a single team. While Greg Beatles of the Atlanta Falcons acknowledges that meeting fans where they are is the goal, the system is currently optimized for the platform, not the user.

The integration of ESPN+ into YouTube TV is a rare example of a frictionless fix that actually improves the system. By collapsing the distance between the primary broadcast and the secondary content, the system creates a better experience, but it remains a patch on a fragmented infrastructure.

"The television landscape is so fractured just overall. And so to try to meet the fans where they are on all these different platforms that are just growing like crazy... a lot of it is us just trying to meet the fan where they are."

-- Greg Beatles

Key Action Items

• Audit Media Rights Exposure: Over the next quarter, evaluate how your organization's content distribution strategy relies on external "mercenary" production. If you are currently outsourcing, begin planning for the 18-24 month transition to in-house infrastructure.
• Prioritize Frictionless Integration: If you are a platform or rights holder, focus on seamless integration, like the ESPN+/YouTube TV example. This pays off in 12-18 months by reducing churn, even if the initial technical implementation is difficult.
• Monitor "Watering Down" Metrics: For those managing sports properties, track the correlation between expanded playoff access and regular-season viewership. If the event status of early-season games declines, prepare to pivot marketing toward individual star narratives rather than team-wide playoff stakes.
• Invest in Emerging Pipelines: The rapid growth of girls' flag football (from 16,000 to 100,000 participants in five years) suggests that investing in new, accessible pathways creates long-term brand loyalty. This is a 3-5 year investment that builds a new demographic of super-fans.
• Analyze Rights Revenue vs. Total Revenue: Use the LIV Golf bankruptcy filing as a benchmark for your own property. If media rights represent only 5% of total revenue, your business is a lifestyle or event brand, not a media property. Adjust your growth expectations accordingly.