Financial Decisions Are Rational Within Personal Game Contexts
TL;DR
- Treating money as a singular game leads to judgment; recognizing diverse financial games, like lottery tickets for the desperate, reveals rationality in seemingly irrational choices.
- Financial decisions, even those appearing reckless, are rational within an individual's unique context of time horizon, risk tolerance, and immediate needs.
- Financial media's one-size-fits-all approach fails to acknowledge varying goals and time horizons, contributing to unproductive debates between people playing different games.
- Mimicking the spending or investment strategies of others playing a different game, such as day traders versus long-term investors, often leads to unintended negative outcomes.
- Defining one's personal financial game, including goals and risk tolerance, is crucial to avoid taking cues from those with different objectives and potentially detrimental advice.
- The perceived irrationality of spending on lottery tickets by low-income individuals stems from its potential as the sole tangible hope for escaping financial hardship.
Deep Dive
The core argument is that financial decisions, often perceived as purely mathematical, are in reality deeply personal and game-dependent. What appears irrational or foolish to one person can be entirely rational and sensible to another, given their unique circumstances, goals, and time horizons. This fundamental difference in "games" being played is the root cause of most financial disagreements and can lead individuals to make detrimental decisions by adopting strategies not suited to their own objectives.
The implications of this perspective are far-reaching. First, it suggests that judging others' financial choices is often misguided. The example of lottery ticket purchases by low-income individuals, which seems irrational from a position of financial security, makes sense when viewed as a desperate pursuit of hope and a potential way out of hardship. Similarly, the "future thinker" mentality is a luxury afforded by financial stability; for those living day-to-day, a focus on immediate needs is the only rational approach. Applying this to investing, the distinction between short-term traders and long-term investors highlights how the same asset can be a rational play for one and a risky gamble for the other, depending on their exit strategy. This realization fosters a less judgmental approach to personal finance and emphasizes the importance of self-awareness.
The second-order implication is the critical need for individuals to define their own financial "game." Without this clarity, people are susceptible to adopting strategies and advice from those playing different games, leading to unintended risks and outcomes. This is evident in how financial media often presents a one-size-fits-all approach, failing to acknowledge the diverse goals of a 19-year-old day trader versus a 98-year-old seeking stability. Furthermore, social spending, often driven by the desire for admiration, can lead individuals to mimic the purchasing habits of others without understanding the underlying career or aspirational goals that justify those expenditures. Ultimately, the most important financial advice is to identify your personal game--your unique goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon--and to play only that game, rather than being swayed by the strategies of others.
Action Items
- Define personal investment game: Document specific goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon (e.g., 30-50 year passive growth).
- Audit financial media consumption: Identify and filter content irrelevant to defined personal investment game (e.g., daily market commentary).
- Analyze spending patterns: Compare current discretionary spending against defined personal game goals for 3-5 spending categories.
- Evaluate financial advice sources: Assess if advisors' stated goals align with personal investment game before engagement.
- Track personal financial decisions: Record 5-10 key financial choices, noting the perceived game being played at the time.
Key Quotes
"Americans spend more on lottery tickets than they do on movies video games music sporting events and books combined. It is an astounding figure and astounding statistic made all the more astounding by the second point which i think is even more incredible and that is the majority of lottery tickets in the United States are purchased by some of the poorest Americans the lowest decile of households in the United States based off of income spend on average 412 a year on lottery tickets that is four times the amount that is spent by the highest decile of income earners."
Morgan Housel highlights the significant spending on lottery tickets by lower-income households, noting it exceeds combined spending on entertainment and books. This statistic underscores a counterintuitive financial behavior that Housel later explores as a form of hope for those in financial desperation.
"Look, I think that is why a lot of this occurs. To the eyes of someone who has a more comfortable financial position, it looks like what they're doing is crazy. To someone who is in some sort of financial desperation, it actually makes a lot of sense. A lottery ticket might be the only piece of tangible hope that they have that gives them confidence that there is a way out that there is a path to the other side."
Morgan Housel explains that actions perceived as irrational from a position of financial security can be rational from a perspective of desperation. He argues that for those facing hardship, a lottery ticket represents a tangible source of hope and a potential escape route.
"There are many different games to play with money and everyone is playing a slightly different game. And a big problem that happens with money is that when people are doing something differently than you are managing their money differently than you are spending their money saving their money investing their money differently than you are, it is so easy to look at those people and say, 'You're doing it wrong. You're not doing it right. You're not as smart as I am.'"
Morgan Housel identifies a core problem in financial understanding: the tendency to judge others for managing money differently. He posits that individuals are often playing distinct "games" with their finances, and what appears "wrong" to one person may be perfectly rational for another given their circumstances.
"One of the most important ideas in money in finance in investing is realizing that some people are playing a different game than you are. And I'm telling you, one of the most important financial skills for everybody is figuring out and identifying what game you are playing."
Morgan Housel emphasizes the critical importance of recognizing that others engage with money through different financial strategies and objectives. He asserts that a fundamental financial skill is self-awareness, specifically identifying the unique "game" one is playing with their own finances.
"We categorize virtually everyone under the same label: you're an investor, you're a saver, you're a spender. And suddenly you have investors and all kinds of people who start judging one another, even if they are very different people with different goals playing a different game."
Morgan Housel points out the common tendency to oversimplify financial identities into broad categories like "investor" or "spender." He argues this categorization leads to judgment among individuals who, despite sharing a label, may have vastly different goals and be playing entirely different financial games.
"The problem is when people don't understand or appreciate that other people can be so different than they are thinking different things wanting different things having different risk tolerances. So let me tell you what I think is the single most important investing advice that I know of: Figure out what game you are playing and then play it and only it."
Morgan Housel identifies a significant issue arising from a lack of appreciation for individual differences in financial thinking, desires, and risk tolerance. He concludes by offering what he considers the most crucial investing advice: clearly define and exclusively play the financial game that aligns with one's own unique circumstances and goals.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "Article about lottery tickets in America" - Mentioned as the catalyst for a realization about financial decision-making.
Tools & Software
- Microsoft 365 Copilot - Referenced as an AI assistant for work tasks within Microsoft 365 applications.
- Uniswap - Mentioned as a platform for crypto trading and managing digital assets.
Articles & Papers
- "Article about lottery tickets in America" (Source not explicitly named) - Discussed for its points on American spending habits on lottery tickets and the demographics of purchasers.
People
- Michael Jordan - Quoted on the need to reconstruct his body for different sports and mentioned as an example of playing a different game.
- Daniel Kahneman - Recounted a story about his financial advisor's reaction to his lack of desire to become richer, illustrating different financial goals.
Organizations & Institutions
- Public.com - Mentioned as an investing platform offering stocks, bonds, AI insights, and high yields on cash.
Websites & Online Resources
- Public.com (URL not explicit) - Referenced as an investing platform with AI features and cash yield options.
- microsoft.com/m365copilot - Provided as a URL to learn more about Microsoft 365 Copilot.
Other Resources
- Playing Your Own Game - The central theme of the podcast episode, emphasizing the importance of individual financial strategies.
- Lottery Tickets - Discussed as a financial decision that appears irrational from a comfortable position but can make sense from a position of financial desperation.
- Future Thinkers - A concept used to describe people whose financial planning is limited to immediate needs due to extreme poverty.
- Day Traders - Described as playing a different game than long-term investors, focusing on short-term price movements.
- Long-Term Investors - Contrasted with day traders, emphasizing a focus on holding assets over extended periods.