Cloud Seeding's Promise Hindered by Conspiracy Theories
TL;DR
- Cloud seeding's effectiveness is scientifically proven to increase precipitation by approximately 10% daily, translating to significant long-term water gains over decades, justifying substantial state budget increases for its implementation.
- Modern cloud seeding, utilizing AI-enhanced drone technology and advanced radar, offers greater precision and flexibility than older airplane-based methods, enabling targeted operations and real-time data feedback.
- Conspiracy theories surrounding cloud seeding, amplified by social media and fears of climate change, pose a significant obstacle, leading to legislative bans and public distrust despite scientific consensus.
- The Great Salt Lake's critical ecological and economic importance, threatened by record low levels, highlights the urgent need for water solutions like cloud seeding, which is considered more cost-effective than desalination.
- Claims that cloud seeding caused Texas floods are scientifically unfounded, as the technology can only produce a fraction of an inch of rain, far less than the 20 inches recorded during the disaster.
- The widespread distrust in institutions and tendency towards conspiracy theories in the U.S. uniquely challenges the adoption of new technologies like cloud seeding, necessitating a focus on transparency to build earned trust.
- Despite advancements, cloud seeding technology still faces developmental challenges, including drone reliability and effectiveness at scale, indicating an iterative process toward achieving its full potential for widespread desert greening.
Deep Dive
The promise of cloud seeding technology, a decades-old method for increasing precipitation, is being dramatically hampered by the resurgence of conspiracy theories, particularly amplified by social media and anxieties around climate change. This collision of innovative weather modification with unfounded beliefs poses a significant challenge for companies like Rainmaker, which aims to leverage advanced technology to combat drought, and for states seeking practical solutions to water crises.
The core tension lies between the scientific efficacy and potential benefits of cloud seeding and the public's often uncritical acceptance of alternative narratives. Rainmaker, a startup utilizing drones and AI to enhance cloud seeding precision, faces immediate backlash when its operations intersect with natural disasters. Following deadly floods in Texas, the company was wrongly accused of causing the catastrophe, despite scientific evidence demonstrating their cloud seeding efforts could not have produced the volume of rainfall. This incident highlights a critical second-order implication: the rapid spread of misinformation, fueled by high-profile individuals and a general distrust in institutions, can effectively derail legitimate technological solutions. The accusation against Rainmaker, though scientifically baseless, led to calls for nationwide bans on weather modification, illustrating how conspiracy theories can translate into policy, directly obstructing the deployment of technologies that could address severe environmental challenges like the shrinking Great Salt Lake.
Furthermore, the narrative surrounding cloud seeding reveals a uniquely American propensity for conspiracy theories, rooted in a distrust of institutions and a tendency toward individual interpretation of facts. This dynamic creates a challenging environment for emerging technologies. For instance, the persistent "chemtrail" theory, which posits that airplane contrails are toxic chemicals, continues to gain traction despite scientific refutation, demonstrating the difficulty in educating the public about atmospheric science. Rainmaker's CEO acknowledges this, recognizing that as the company grows, establishing transparency and trust will be paramount to counteracting these unfounded beliefs. The struggle of companies like Rainmaker underscores a broader systemic issue: the advancement of critical technologies designed to solve real-world problems, such as water scarcity, is increasingly vulnerable to the pervasive influence of misinformation and a deep-seated societal skepticism towards established scientific consensus.
Action Items
- Audit cloud seeding operations: Identify 3-5 specific projects to assess scientific basis and public perception challenges (ref: weather modification conspiracies).
- Draft public communication framework: Outline 3 key principles for explaining complex atmospheric science to non-technical audiences, addressing potential fears (ref: esoteric atmospheric science information).
- Analyze drone deployment logs: For 10-15 recent missions, correlate seeding activity with weather outcomes to build verifiable data sets (ref: drone sensors, real-time information).
- Measure public sentiment: Track social media mentions and news articles related to cloud seeding and conspiracy theories over a 3-month period to gauge impact.
- Evaluate technology readiness: For 2-3 core drone functions, identify failure points (e.g., icing, falling) and define improvement targets for the next development cycle.
Key Quotes
"Cloud seeding was invented in 1946 by general electric scientists in upstate new york and what they were trying to do was to find a solution to the icing on airplane wings that's our colleague chris marr and they discovered that when they put dry ice into clouds in a simulated experiment it produced ice crystals like snow so it really was a way to squeeze more water more moisture out of clouds than would traditionally be falling naturally."
This quote introduces the origin and fundamental concept of cloud seeding, explaining its initial purpose and how it works to extract more moisture from clouds. Chris Marr highlights that the technology, developed by GE scientists, was initially intended to solve a practical problem with airplane wings. The interpretation shows that cloud seeding aims to enhance natural precipitation processes.
"The great salt lake is important on so many levels it's important ecologically it would be really a ecological disaster if the lake were to dry out it supports a lot of industry about 2 billion worth of industry annually recreation mineral mining different things and um even now there is also sort of a health risk too because as the lake dries out more dust is being created from the that dry lake bed it's it's laden with arsenic uh there's risks to people's health asthma a variety of other concerns."
This passage details the multifaceted importance of the Great Salt Lake, emphasizing its ecological, industrial, and health-related significance. The speaker explains that the lake's drying poses a severe risk of ecological disaster, impacts industries worth billions annually, and creates health hazards due to arsenic-laden dust. This highlights the critical need for solutions to prevent the lake from further shrinking.
"Rainmaker's cloud seeding operation has grown quickly it got off the ground thanks to a big name in silicon valley peter thiel who was an early backer of rainmaker's ceo and the company does things differently than old school cloud seeding instead of using planes it uses drones and ai enhanced weather modeling."
This quote describes the rapid growth and innovative approach of the startup Rainmaker, noting its significant backing from Peter Thiel. The speaker points out that Rainmaker distinguishes itself from traditional cloud seeding methods by employing drones and AI-powered weather modeling. This indicates a modernization of the technology to improve its precision and efficiency.
"The question is how much rain can rainmaker actually make the great salt lake needs an enormous amount of water per year to stop drying up rainmaker is trying to prove that they can make about 10 billion gallons of water by april that's still a fraction of what the lake ultimately needs but utah state officials think cloud seeding could help and it's a whole lot cheaper than other methods like desalination."
This quote addresses the practical efficacy and economic viability of Rainmaker's cloud seeding efforts in addressing the Great Salt Lake's water crisis. The speaker notes that while Rainmaker aims to produce a substantial amount of water, it is still a small fraction of what the lake requires. However, Utah officials see cloud seeding as a more cost-effective alternative to methods like desalination.
"Beyond the challenges with the technology augustus has a consistent problem to deal with trying to put concerns to rest about the science behind his work that's because you can only modify the weather for so long before the conspiracy theories start swirling cloud seeding and weather modification it's very frontier it has to do with modifying the sky and people have this sort of intuitive notion that like that's god's domain or something i mean the words matter weather modification sound sci fi."
This passage highlights the significant challenge Augustus Doricko faces in combating conspiracy theories surrounding weather modification, despite technological advancements. The speaker explains that the inherently "frontier" nature of modifying the sky, coupled with terms like "weather modification," can evoke intuitive concerns and lead people to view it as interfering with a natural or divine domain. This suggests that public perception and fear of the unknown are major obstacles.
"The national weather service had said that about 20 inches of rain fell in certain areas and rainmaker has said that its cloud seeding missions can only produce a fraction of an inch so it wasn't really physically possible for the company to have done it and the company also ceased its operations when its own meteorologists noticed that there was a storm system coming into the area."
This quote refutes the conspiracy theory linking Rainmaker's cloud seeding to deadly floods in Texas by presenting scientific and operational facts. The speaker contrasts the massive rainfall recorded by the National Weather Service with the limited output Rainmaker's technology can achieve. Rainmaker's decision to cease operations due to an approaching storm system further supports their claim of not causing the disaster.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Journal" by Spotify and The Wall Street Journal - Mentioned as the podcast series producing this episode.
Articles & Papers
- "Hot, Dry and Booming: A Texas Climate Case Study" - Mentioned as further listening.
- "Is Asheville No Longer a 'Climate Haven?'" - Mentioned as further listening.
People
- Augustus Doricko - CEO of Rainmaker, discussed for his company's cloud seeding technology and involvement in conspiracy theories.
- Chris Maher - WSJ colleague, explained the movement to ban weather modification.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - Health and Human Services Secretary, amplified the chemtrails theory.
- Marjorie Taylor Greene - Congresswoman, discussed for her intention to introduce a bill banning weather modification and posting a photo of Augustus De Rico.
- Ron DeSantis - Florida Governor, discussed for his stance against weather modification legislation.
- Michael Flynn - Retired General, asked for an accounting of Rainmaker's Texas operations.
Organizations & Institutions
- Rainmaker - Startup company developing drone and AI-enhanced cloud seeding technology.
- General Electric - Invented cloud seeding technology in 1946.
- WSJ (The Wall Street Journal) - Co-producer of "The Journal" podcast.
- Spotify - Co-producer of "The Journal" podcast.
- U.S. Bank - Advertised for its checking and savings accounts.
- Apple Card - Advertised for its daily cash back feature.
- Goldman Sachs Bank USA - Issuer of Apple Card.
- United Health Group - Advertised for capping out-of-pocket prescription costs.
- Depop - Advertised as a platform to sell used clothing.
- National Weather Service - Stated that approximately 20 inches of rain fell in certain areas during the Texas floods.
Websites & Online Resources
- megaphone.fm/adchoices - Provided for information on ad choices.
- applecard.com - Provided for terms and conditions related to Apple Card.
- uhg.com - Provided for more information on United Health Group.
Other Resources
- Cloud seeding - Decades-old rain-making technology discussed as a method to stabilize the Great Salt Lake and its association with conspiracy theories.
- Chemtrails - Conspiracy theory about government-released toxic chemicals from airplane vapor trails, debunked as condensation trails.
- Weather modification - General term for influencing weather systems, discussed in relation to bans and conspiracy theories.
- Smartly Checking and Savings Accounts - U.S. Bank product mentioned for tracking spending and growing savings.
- Daily cash back - Feature of Apple Card for everyday purchases.
- What's News newsletter - Free newsletter from WSJ.