Offensive Coaching and Turnover Discipline Drive Modern NFL Success - Episode Hero Image

Offensive Coaching and Turnover Discipline Drive Modern NFL Success

The Herd with Colin Cowherd · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Offensive coaches are crucial for developing young quarterbacks, as evidenced by Liam Coen's success with Trevor Lawrence and Ben Johnson's impact on the Bears' offense, leading to improved team performance.
  • Teams that consistently win the turnover battle, like the Chicago Bears (10-1 record), demonstrate a clear path to victory, highlighting the critical impact of ball security on game outcomes.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles' success despite offensive inconsistency suggests that a complete roster and strong defense can overcome offensive struggles, making them a dangerous playoff team.
  • Kyle Shanahan's 49ers struggle to come from behind when trailing by seven or more points at halftime, indicating a potential tactical inflexibility tied to his play-calling script.
  • The Buffalo Bills' repeated struggles in road playoff games (0-8) and tendency to trail in the second half suggest a psychological and tactical vulnerability when facing high-pressure situations.
  • Jacksonville's eight-game winning streak since week 11, marked by significant point differentials, indicates a team that has found a dominant rhythm and is peaking at the right time.
  • The New England Patriots' success under Mike Vrabel, including a strong road record, highlights the importance of coaching and consistent performance, even with offensive line concerns.
  • Seattle's ability to shut down elite running backs like Christian McCaffrey, combined with strong draft performance and a productive quarterback on a team-friendly deal, signifies a well-constructed, competitive roster.

Deep Dive

This "Best of the Week" episode of The Herd dissects Colin Cowherd's recent NFL and college football predictions, highlighting where his foresight proved accurate and where it missed the mark. The core implications center on the evolving nature of team building and player evaluation, underscoring that success hinges on adaptability to modern game demands, particularly in offensive scheme and quarterback development, while also revealing the limitations of traditional metrics when faced with dynamic, modern play.

Cowherd's accurate predictions underscore the growing importance of offensive-minded coaching and quarterback-centric talent evaluation. His endorsement of coaches like Liam Coen and Ben Johnson, who have demonstrably elevated offenses and quarterback play (Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence), suggests a paradigm shift where offensive acumen is paramount for team success. This implies that organizations should prioritize offensive coordinators with a proven ability to develop quarterbacks and design schemes that create "layups" -- easy opportunities for their signal-callers -- rather than relying solely on traditional defensive strength or individual star power. Conversely, his misjudgments, such as his skepticism towards Trevor Lawrence's potential or his initial defense of the Falcons' quarterback situation, reveal a tendency to underestimate the impact of offensive scheme and coaching synergy on player performance. The implication here is that even highly talented players can be hampered by suboptimal coaching or system fit, and that a coach's ability to create a clear, efficient offensive system is a critical factor in unlocking a quarterback's full potential.

Furthermore, the analysis of teams like the Eagles, characterized by their "loudness" and inconsistency despite success, versus the Patriots' historical predictability, highlights a tension between emotional drive and methodical execution. Tom Brady's insights suggest that sustained success, particularly in the playoffs, requires a blend of adaptability and consistent execution, where teams can adjust their game plan without losing their fundamental identity. This points to a second-order implication that teams must cultivate a strategic flexibility, allowing for mid-game adjustments without falling into predictable traps, a skill that separates consistent contenders from teams that falter under pressure. The "Blazing Five" picks further reinforce these themes, with Cowherd favoring teams that demonstrate offensive efficiency, turnover discipline, and strong coaching, even when facing perceived betting disadvantages. This signals a move away from pure talent evaluation towards a more nuanced understanding of team construction and strategic execution in the modern, high-scoring NFL.

Action Items

  • Audit team performance metrics: Define 3-5 objective criteria for evaluating quarterback performance beyond win-loss records (e.g., efficiency, situational success).
  • Create offensive scheme checklist: Document 5-7 key principles for offensive coordinators to ensure consistent "layup" opportunities for quarterbacks.
  • Analyze 10-15 past playoff games: Identify common patterns in successful comeback victories versus teams that failed to adapt their strategy.
  • Develop quarterback development rubric: Outline 3-4 core traits for assessing player potential, focusing on adaptability and situational execution.

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Key Quotes

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"I lobbied for the Miami Hurricanes to make the College Football Playoff over Notre Dame. Well, they've beaten Texas A&M and Ohio State, and they're favored over Ole Miss. I didn't think losing to an eight-win Louisville team in October should wreck an entire program season. College football is more like pro football, and the most physical team left, and I don't think there's any question, is the Miami Hurricanes. One of the glamour programs in college football that pushed the Buckeyes around in a three-and-a-half-hour flex."

Colin Cowherd argues here for the Miami Hurricanes' inclusion in the College Football Playoff, citing their strong performances against notable opponents like Texas A&M and Ohio State. Cowherd believes a single loss in October should not disqualify a team with such demonstrated physicality and capability, especially when compared to other contenders. He asserts that Miami's physical dominance makes them a top contender.

"I defended not only acquiring Kirk Cousins but drafting Michael Penix, but the head coach and GM today got fired. Penix has dissolved into sort of a nothing burger. He's banged up. Cousins actually played pretty well at the end of the season, too little too late. My takeaway was, folks, you can't have too many quarterbacks. Bring a veteran in for a year and then have Michael Penix take it from there. Maybe they should have hired an offensive coach, but it doesn't look like I was on the right side of that one."

Colin Cowherd reflects on his previous endorsement of the Atlanta Falcons' quarterback strategy, which included acquiring Kirk Cousins and drafting Michael Penix. Cowherd admits that this decision, along with the subsequent firing of the head coach and GM, has not panned out as expected, with Penix's performance being underwhelming. He reiterates his belief in accumulating quarterback talent but acknowledges that this particular approach did not prove successful.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The West Coast Offense" - Mentioned as a system with fewer protection schemes compared to other offenses.

Articles & Papers

  • "The Herd" (Fox Sports Radio) - Mentioned as the source of the broadcast.
  • "The Herd" (iheart radio app) - Mentioned as a platform to listen live or on demand.
  • "Fox Sports Radio" - Mentioned as the platform for live editions of "The Herd."
  • "FS1" - Mentioned as a platform for live editions of "The Herd."
  • "Sacred Lessons" (Podcast) - Mentioned as a space for men to talk openly about mental health, grief, and relationships.
  • "Next Question" (Podcast) - Mentioned as a podcast that looks back at the year's events and explores their meaning.
  • "Off the Edge with Cam Jordan" (Podcast) - Mentioned as a podcast featuring conversations with friends and stars from the NFL, sports world, and entertainment.

People

  • Colin Cowherd - Host of "The Herd" podcast.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in relation to being a comeback player of the year.
  • Matt Hasselbeck - Mentioned as being "just around the corner" in the broadcast.
  • Jimmy Johnson - Mentioned as an example of an NFL coach who knows personnel, trades, play design, and play calling.
  • Kevin Stefanski - Mentioned as a two-time coach of the year who had to swim in chaos due to ownership and a Deshaun Watson deal.
  • Deshaun Watson - Mentioned in relation to Kevin Stefanski's tenure with the Browns.
  • Michael Parsons - Mentioned in relation to the Cowboys moving off him and the team's weak secondary.
  • Liam Cohen - Mentioned as an offensive coach with quarterback sensibility who got the Bears to a number two seed.
  • Ben Johnson - Mentioned as an offensive coach with quarterback sensibility who got the Bears to a number two seed.
  • Caleb Williams - Mentioned as a quarterback for Indiana whose talent has been allowed to flourish, and who tied for the most wins in his first two seasons.
  • Trevor Lawrence - Mentioned as a quarterback for Jacksonville who is playing his best football.
  • Ty Simpson - Mentioned as a rumored transfer from Alabama who is considered a second or third-round guy.
  • Kirk Cousins - Mentioned in relation to the Vikings' decision to acquire him and draft Michael Penix.
  • Michael Penix - Mentioned in relation to the Vikings' decision to acquire Kirk Cousins and draft him.
  • Jenna Kim Jones - Host of "The Ripple Effect" podcast.
  • Mike Della Rocca - Host of "Sacred Lessons" podcast.
  • Katie Couric - Host of "Next Question" podcast.
  • Cam Jordan - Host of "Off the Edge with Cam Jordan" podcast.
  • Tom Brady - Mentioned as a seven-time Super Bowl champion joining the broadcast and discussing various NFL topics.
  • Charles Woodson - Mentioned in relation to Tom Brady's first playoff start.
  • Jalen Hurts - Mentioned in relation to the Philadelphia Eagles.
  • Kyle Shanahan - Mentioned as a great play designer and coach of the 49ers.
  • Andy Reid - Mentioned as a great play designer.
  • Bill Walsh - Mentioned as a great play designer.
  • Josh McDaniels - Mentioned as a coach who has done a great job understanding Drake May's capabilities.
  • Patrick Mahomes - Mentioned in relation to the Chiefs and his success in the playoffs.
  • Christian McCaffrey - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers and being a star player.
  • Barry Sanders - Mentioned as a comparison for Christian McCaffrey.
  • Walter Payton - Mentioned as a comparison for Christian McCaffrey.
  • Josh Allen - Mentioned in relation to the Buffalo Bills and his performance.
  • Mike Vrabel - Mentioned as a coach for the New England Patriots.
  • Vic Fangio - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers' struggles against him.
  • Drake Maye - Mentioned as a quarterback for Indiana who has had an incredible year.
  • Drew Brees - Mentioned as a quarterback who became an extension of the coaching staff.
  • Peyton Manning - Mentioned as a quarterback who became an extension of the coaching staff.
  • Michael Jordan - Mentioned as an example of a player who mastered the mid-range jumper.
  • Cam Newton - Mentioned in relation to a Carolina team that got hot.

Organizations & Institutions

  • iheart podcast network - Mentioned as the network for "The Ripple Effect" podcast.
  • iheart radio app - Mentioned as a platform to listen to various podcasts.
  • Apple Podcasts - Mentioned as a platform to listen to various podcasts.
  • Quest Health - Mentioned as a provider of online lab tests.
  • Wasabi - Mentioned as a provider of AI-enabled intelligent media storage.
  • Volume Podcast Network - Mentioned as a partner of Wasabi.
  • Public - Mentioned as an investing platform.
  • Open to the Public Investing Inc. - Mentioned as the brokerage services provider for Public.
  • FINRA - Mentioned as a member of Public.
  • SIPC - Mentioned as a member of Public.
  • Public Advisors LLC - Mentioned as the SEC registered advisor for Public.
  • Fox Sports Radio - Mentioned as a platform for "The Herd" and other shows.
  • Denver Broncos - Mentioned as a team Colin was right about picking to win the AFC West.
  • Kansas City - Mentioned in relation to the Denver Broncos unseating them.
  • Browns - Mentioned in relation to Kevin Stefanski's tenure.
  • Raiders - Mentioned as a team that should have hired Kevin Stefanski.
  • Miami Hurricanes - Mentioned as a college football team Colin lobbied for to make the playoff.
  • Notre Dame - Mentioned in relation to the Miami Hurricanes college football playoff discussion.
  • Texas A&M - Mentioned as a team the Miami Hurricanes have beaten.
  • Ohio State - Mentioned as a team the Miami Hurricanes have beaten.
  • Old Miss - Mentioned as a team the Miami Hurricanes are favored over.
  • Louisville - Mentioned as a team that beat the Miami Hurricanes.
  • Cowboys - Mentioned in relation to moving off Michael Parsons.
  • Bears - Mentioned in relation to Caleb Williams and their offensive performance.
  • Chargers - Mentioned as a team the Jaguars dismantled.
  • Jacksonville - Mentioned as a team that may be the best in the NFL.
  • Seattle - Mentioned as a team that may be the best in the NFL.
  • Indiana - Mentioned as a college football team with a quarterback who is a runaway number one pick.
  • Alabama - Mentioned in relation to Indiana's performance.
  • Alabama - Mentioned in relation to Ty Simpson.
  • Minnesota Vikings - Mentioned in relation to acquiring Kirk Cousins and drafting Michael Penix.
  • Lifelock - Mentioned as a service for identity protection.
  • CVS - Mentioned as a community-focused organization.
  • New England Patriots - Mentioned in relation to Tom Brady and their consistent performance.
  • Philadelphia Eagles - Mentioned in relation to their uneven performance and strong roster.
  • San Francisco 49ers - Mentioned in relation to their dependence on Christian McCaffrey and struggles against Vic Fangio.
  • Buffalo Bills - Mentioned in relation to their playoff road game record and Josh Allen's performance.
  • Green Bay Packers - Mentioned in relation to their recent losing streak and defense.
  • Carolina Panthers - Mentioned as a team that made the playoffs with a negative point differential.
  • Oregon Ducks - Mentioned in relation to their game against Indiana.

Tools & Software

  • AI - Mentioned in relation to Public's generated assets.

Websites & Online Resources

  • questhealth.com - Mentioned as the website to buy lab tests online.
  • wasabi.com - Mentioned as the website to try Wasabi for free.
  • public.com/podcast - Mentioned as the website to earn a bonus when transferring a portfolio.
  • public.com/disclosures - Mentioned for complete disclosures regarding Public.
  • lifelock.com/support - Mentioned for saving up to 40% on the first year of Lifelock.
  • foxsportsradio.com - Mentioned as the website to find local stations for "The Herd."

Other Resources

  • Elite Health Profile - Mentioned as a lab test panel offered by Quest Health.
  • Wasabi Air - Mentioned as an intelligent media storage service.
  • Generated Assets - Mentioned as a feature on Public that allows turning ideas into investable indexes with AI.
  • Turnover Battle - Mentioned as a key factor in Bears wins.
  • Big Plays - Mentioned in relation to the Bills leading the NFL in this category.
  • Playoff Road Games - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' poor record in these games.
  • Turnovers - Mentioned as a factor in the Texans' success and potential undoing.
  • Red Zone Offense - Mentioned in relation to the Texans' struggles and the Eagles' success.
  • Home Field Advantage - Mentioned in relation to Denver's success.
  • Play Action Pass - Mentioned as a component of the 49ers' offense.
  • Situational Football - Mentioned as a key element in playoff success.
  • Parity - Mentioned as a characteristic of the NFL season.
  • Offensive Line - Mentioned as a factor for Seattle, New England, and the Bears.
  • Quarterback Sensibility - Mentioned as a desirable trait for offensive coaches.
  • Turnover Ratio - Mentioned as a factor for Indiana.
  • Strength of Schedule - Mentioned in relation to Stafford and Drake May's MVP consideration.
  • Mid-Range Jumper - Mentioned as a skill mastered by Michael Jordan.
  • Layups - Mentioned as a way for offensive coordinators to create advantages for quarterbacks.
  • Pitching Wedge - Used as an analogy for offensive coordinators creating easy scoring opportunities.
  • Three Iron - Used as an analogy for more difficult offensive plays.
  • Blazing Five - Mentioned as a segment of the broadcast.

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